President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has officially declared a one-year state of national energy emergency as the administration warns of an "imminent danger" to the country’s fuel and power supplies. On Tuesday (March 24th), Energy Secretary Sharon Garin revealed that the Philippines has approximately 45 days of fuel supply remaining based on current consumption, with specific reserves of diesel and gasoline estimated to last until mid-May. Under this declaration, a specialized contingency committee will oversee the orderly distribution of fuel and basic goods while cracking down on hoarding and price manipulation. To cushion the blow of soaring prices, the government has begun distributing 5,000-peso ($83) subsidies to transport workers and providing free bus rides in key cities.

The United Kingdom government officially launched a new national Steel Strategy on March 19, 2026, aimed at domesticating 50% of the nation's steel consumption, up from the current 30%. As part of this robust trade defense, the UK will reduce tariff-free import quotas by 60% effective July 1, 2026, while raising the maximum Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff to 50% for imports exceeding these limits. This move is designed to shield the domestic industry—currently transitioning from traditional blast furnaces to electric arc furnaces (EAF)—from global overcapacity and extreme subsidies.

[Overnight, LME Aluminum and SHFE Aluminum Edged Up Slightly, but Aluminum Prices Faced Short-Term Pressure at High Levels] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum remained insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had yet to end, with high inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighing on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and prices were mainly under pressure in the short term.

It is worth noting that the overall overseas ternary cathode demand outlook for 2026 remains subdued. The U.S. market has been sluggish since the fourth quarter of last year, prompting many overseas manufacturers to place their hopes on the European market.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: The US Fed Held Rates Unchanged, and LME Zinc Came Under Pressure] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,220.5/mt. In early trading, LME zinc briefly rose to a high of $3,227/mt, after which bulls reduced their positions, and LME zinc fluctuated downward throughout the session, hitting a low of $3,130/mt near the close. It finally closed down at $3,132.5/mt, a decrease of $100.5/mt, or 3.11%. Trading volume increased to 16,556 lots, and open interest fell by 6,295 lots to 208,000 lots.

[SMM Analysis] On March 12, 2026, the US International Trade Commission (ITC) ruled against imposing tariffs on Chinese graphite imports. Below is the complete timeline of the US anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) investigations into active anode material (graphite anode) from China, the duty rates at each stage, and the latest results as of March 12, 2026.

[EU Plans to Require EVs to Contain 70% Localized Parts to Qualify for Subsidies] The European Commission is expected to propose new rules requiring electric vehicles to contain at least 70% of EU-localized parts to be eligible for state subsidies. This proposal will form part of the European Commission's Industrial Accelerator Act, which is scheduled for release on February 25. The move aims to protect the EU's domestic manufacturing base and address pressure from imports of low-cost Chinese electric vehicles.

[End-Use Market Dynamics] According to the Hainan Provincial Department of Commerce, on February 24, 2026, the department publicly released the list of individual consumers approved for the tenth batch of subsidies under the 2025 Hainan Province E-Bike Trade-In Program. A total of 2,193 individuals passed the review in this batch, with a subsidy of 500 yuan per unit.

During the 618 shopping festival, the "national subsidy" for home appliances in many regions has shifted from a unified subsidy to a voucher-based subsidy. A reporter from Cailian Press visited home appliance stores in Jiangsu, Guangdong, and other regions and learned that the relevant "national subsidy" discounts have entered a "scramble" mode. During interviews, industry practitioners often responded with terms like "limited quantity" and "quota allocation." Meanwhile, in Chongqing, Hubei, and other regions, the "national subsidy" for consumer goods, including home appliances and renovation products for kitchens and bathrooms, under the trade-in program, has been suspended or adjusted. As an important measure to expand domestic demand and boost consumption, the trade-in subsidy policy has effectively driven sustained consumption rebound and improvement. Data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that since the beginning of this year, the sales volume of consumer goods under the trade-in program has exceeded RMB 1 trillion. The "braking" of the "national subsidy" may be related to the depletion of subsidy funds. Announcements from multiple regions mention: "The subsidy amount applied for in this batch has reached the limit" and "The subsidy funds for this round have been fully utilized." However, market analysts believe this is a temporary situation, and a new round of subsidies may be restarted. Jiangsu's "national subsidy" requires "queuing for quota," with digital products being "hard to come by" Cailian Press reporters have noticed that on major online shopping platforms, the national subsidy in Jiangsu is currently temporarily unavailable for collection and use. A local consumer told the reporter that they had their eye on an Apple smartwatch and wanted to see if there would be a better deal during the 618 shopping festival. "But then I found out the subsidy was suspended, so I canceled my purchase plan. After all, it's not a necessity, so I just considered it money saved." Offline, Cailian Press reporters visited multiple large electronics and appliance malls and brand stores in Nanjing, Jiangsu, and learned that the widespread national subsidies for home appliances and 3C digital products have been suspended since June 1. However, this is not a complete halt but rather a "quota-based" management approach. When asked whether and when there would be a new round of widespread national subsidies, the interviewed merchants all expressed that they were unaware or had not received any notifications. Cailian Press reporters learned that if consumers wish to use the national subsidy, the specific process is as follows: First, register and queue at the merchant where they intend to make a purchase, then wait for the merchant to "scramble" for the allocated subsidy quota on the relevant platform, and finally, the merchant will notify the consumer to proceed with payment for the order. The waiting time for this process is uncertain and depends on factors such as the merchant's success in securing the quota and the number of people in the queue. At a Gree counter in a JD.com electronics mall, a salesperson told the reporter that if consumers want to use the national subsidy, they may need to wait in line for 2-3 months. "Consumers don't need to scramble for this national subsidy; we'll do it for them. However, the quota allocated to each store is limited, and we can't guarantee when we'll be able to secure the quota." At a Hisense TV counter, a salesperson also mentioned that waiting in line for the national subsidy might take several months. "I'm not sure if you can wait that long. If you have a current need, it's better to just buy it directly," they said. However, since it's currently the 618 shopping festival period, even without using the national subsidy, most stores are offering relatively favorable selling prices. One of the main promoted products at the aforementioned Gree counter is a 1.5-horsepower, first-tier energy efficiency split-type air conditioner, priced at over 6,000 yuan. According to the salesperson, it has relatively comprehensive functions and a higher price among similar products in the store. Currently, after discounts (without using the national subsidy), the actual selling price is less than 4,000 yuan. However, not all products have such significant discounts. A similar product priced at over 4,000 yuan nearby has a selling price after discounts that is close to the aforementioned higher-priced product. It's worth noting that salespeople at different stores have varying views on the "quota" and estimates of waiting times. At a Midea counter in a Suning.com store, a salesperson told reporters that after queuing, it might only take a few days to use the national subsidy. "We just secured a quota of 100,000 yuan this morning. I predict that if you register and queue now, you'll receive a notification soon. It's still very cost-effective to enjoy the national subsidy on top of the discounted price," they said. On the other hand, reporters learned on-site that currently, the subsidy quota management for 3C digital products like mobile phones in the Jiangsu region is much stricter than for home appliances. At this stage, consumers can hardly use the national subsidy to purchase digital products. At various digital brand stores, reporters found that unlike the previous sales strategy of directly informing consumers about the post-subsidy prices, salespeople are no longer proactively mentioning the national subsidy. If asked whether the national subsidy can be used, most salespeople will directly state that it has been suspended and then introduce the current in-store promotional activities. However, at a Xiaomi Home store, a salesperson told reporters that there is actually still a national subsidy for digital products, but the quota is extremely limited. "I think it can be considered negligible. We don't expect to secure it at all. You can just treat it as non-existent. The quota for appliances is larger than that for digital products. If you're buying appliances, it might be worth waiting in line," they said. After Jiangsu suspended the widespread national subsidy, merchants of 3C digital products like mobile phones have also been actively launching promotional activities, hoping to maintain consumers' purchasing enthusiasm in this way. At the aforementioned Xiaomi Home store, except for products that have just been released, almost all other mobile phones are available with discounts. At an Apple counter in a JD.com appliance store, a salesperson told reporters that previously, the national subsidy policy for mobile phones only covered products priced below 6,000 yuan, so most mobile phone products in the Apple store were ineligible. The recent 618 selling prices have hit the lowest levels in store history. For instance, the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max models offer a 2,000-yuan discount across all storage variants compared to their launch prices. Multiple Regions Temporarily Halt National Subsidies, Potential Reboot in H2 Jiangsu's subsidy suspension is not an isolated case, with Chongqing, Hubei, and Guangdong also experiencing temporary unavailability of national subsidies. Caixin reporters found that Guangdong's consumer goods trade-in public service platform posted a notice on June 5, 2025, suspending discount vouchers for the "Guangzhou Home Improvement & Kitchenware Campaign" until further notice. On JD.com, Chongqing's home appliance subsidy page displayed "activity under upgrade" with unavailable vouchers during the transition, while Hubei's smart home subsidies were similarly paused. The Chongqing Commerce Commission confirmed that Phase 1 subsidy funds were fully utilized by June 3, with Phase 2 policies still under formulation. Can physical stores honor subsidies? Stores in Guangzhou told Caixin that vouchers could be used if successfully claimed. "Quantities are now limited. WeChat mini-program vouchers sell out quickly each morning, though UnionPay may have residual stock," said one retailer. Initial ample funding is nearing depletion, creating a first-come-first-served scenario. Midea Smart Home staff noted no customer complaints about voucher availability under normal circumstances. This year's expanded "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins" allocated 300 billion yuan from ultra-long special bonds for trade-in initiatives. Subsidies are accelerating market impact. Ministry of Commerce data shows that by May 31, 2025, the trade-in program generated 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five categories, distributing 175 million direct consumer subsidies. Breakdown: 49.863 million consumers purchased 77.618 million home appliances; 53.529 million bought 56.629 million digital devices; and 57.626 million home improvement orders were completed. AVC noted that 2025's recovering consumer market and frequent promotions drove rapid subsidy utilization, with H1 expenditure projected at 70% of total funds. Judging from the responses of relevant departments in regions where the policy has been suspended, the "national subsidy" may not come to an end. The Chongqing Municipal Commission of Commerce stated that the second phase of the trade-in subsidy policy is expected to be introduced in early June. A relevant official from the Jiangsu Provincial Department of Commerce responded to the media, stating that currently, some platforms are undergoing rectifications or system upgrades. After adjustments, consumers will be able to receive and use the subsidies normally, and each platform and merchant will implement quota management. Xiao Yunxuan, an analyst from the Major Home Appliances Department of AVC Revo, stated that the early national subsidy policies primarily focused on inclusive subsidies, aiming to rapidly activate the market through a "flood-like" approach. However, as the rate of fund depletion far exceeded expectations, the policy model urgently needed transformation. The "quota allocation" model pioneered by Jiangsu is becoming an important reference for national policy adjustments. This model precisely controls the pace of fund depletion through daily and monthly fund limits, combined with a phased subsidy distribution mechanism. This shift alleviates the pressure on local governments for audit and write-off, reduces the risk of fund misuse, and forces enterprises to abandon the competitive strategy of blindly pursuing subsidy amounts. Instead, they are shifting towards rational competition that focuses more on market demand and product value, promoting the industry's transformation towards high-quality development. It is worth noting that Ding Lin, Deputy Director-General of the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), mentioned at the "China Economic Roundtable" recently launched by Xinhua News Agency that the allocation of funds for accelerating the trade-in of consumer goods should be expedited, and the process for applying for subsidies should be simplified. The second half of the "national subsidy" may be just around the corner.

The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce has issued the "Announcement on Further Expanding the Scope of Subsidized Products for the 2025 Trade-in Policy for Consumer Goods." Building on the existing subsidy policies for automobiles, home appliances, e-bikes, mobile phones, and other digital products, the scope of subsidized product categories will be further expanded. The Announcement proposes to focus on intelligent and age-friendly needs, providing subsidies for individual consumers in Beijing who purchase four types of smart home products: smart toilets, smart door locks, robotic vacuum cleaners (including floor washing machines and vacuum-mopping all-in-one machines), and garbage disposers. For individual consumers purchasing the aforementioned smart home products, a subsidy of 15% of the product's final selling price (the price after deducting all discounts and offers) will be provided. For those purchasing smart home products with an energy efficiency or water efficiency rating of Level 1 or above, an additional subsidy of 5% of the product's final selling price will be granted. Each consumer is eligible for a subsidy of up to one product per category, with the maximum subsidy per product not exceeding 2,000 yuan.