SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,264.5/mt. After testing a low of $12,282.5/mt in early trading, its center fluctuated downward, nearing the close and hitting a low of $12,079/mt, before finally closing at $12,120/mt, down 1.33. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, open interest stood at 296,000 lots, an increase of 326 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears adding positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,350 yuan/mt, tested a low of 95,900 yuan/mt in early trading, and then its center moved lower to a low of 94,950 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 95,150 yuan/mt, down 0.45. Trading volume reached 39,000 lots, open interest stood at 188,000 lots, a decrease of 2,104 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bulls reducing positions overall.

On Friday, November 21, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated in its latest monthly bulletin that the global copper cathode market recorded a deficit of 51,000 mt in September, while there was a surplus of 41,000 mt in August. The agency reported that the market showed a surplus of 94,000 mt in the first nine months of the year, compared to a surplus of 310,000 mt during the same period last year. Global copper cathode production was 2.37 million mt in September, with consumption at 2.42 million mt. After adjusting for inventory changes in Chinese bonded warehouses, the market showed a deficit of 50,000 mt in September, compared to a surplus of 47,000 mt in August. (Comprehensive Report by Wen Hua) As the world's largest copper consumer, China's industry chain faces three major challenges: increasing external dependence on upstream resources, overcapacity in midstream processing, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices. To help the industry navigate these changes, SMM has collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to jointly produce. Click the following link to receive the Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map for free: . SMM Co-production Contact Liu Mingkang 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn

In recent weeks, there has been intense debate about the outlook for the copper market in the second half (H2) of 2025.

According to SMM, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated in its latest monthly report that the global copper cathode market experienced a supply surplus of 17,000 mt in March, compared to a surplus of 180,000 mt in February. ICSG reported that in the first three months of this year, the market had a supply surplus of 289,000 mt, compared to a surplus of 268,000 mt in the same period last year. Global copper cathode production in March was 2.43 million mt, with consumption at 2.41 million mt. ICSG said that after adjusting for inventory changes in China's bonded warehouses, the supply surplus in March was 38,000 mt, compared to a surplus of 195,000 mt in February.

[ICSG: Global Copper Market Saw a Supply Surplus of 17,000 mt in March, with a 289,000 mt Surplus in the First Three Months of the Year] On May 27 (Tuesday), the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated in its latest monthly report that the global copper cathode market experienced a supply surplus of 17,000 mt in March, following a surplus of 180,000 mt in February. The ICSG reported that in the first three months of this year, the market saw a supply surplus of 289,000 mt, compared to a surplus of 268,000 mt during the same period last year.

On May 27 (Tuesday), the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated in its latest monthly report that the global copper cathode market experienced a supply surplus of 17,000 mt in March, compared to a surplus of 180,000 mt in February. ICSG reported that in the first three months of this year, the market had a supply surplus of 289,000 mt, compared to a surplus of 268,000 mt in the same period last year. Global copper cathode production in March was 2.43 million mt, with consumption at 2.41 million mt. ICSG stated that after adjusting for inventory changes in China's bonded warehouses, the supply surplus in March was 38,000 mt, compared to a surplus of 195,000 mt in February.

The monthly Metal Index (MMI) for copper showed a downward trend, declining by 4.23% from March to April. Based on current copper prices, analysts appear to be grappling with ongoing changes in trade policies.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,469.5/mt, hitting a high of $9,480/mt shortly after the opening bell. It then fluctuated downward throughout the session, reaching a low of $9,405/mt, before rebounding slightly towards the end to close at $9,446.5/mt, up 0.44%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, and open interest stood at 284,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2506 contract opened at 77,950 yuan/mt, subsequently fluctuating rangebound and hitting a low of 77,660 yuan/mt. It rebounded towards the end to close at 77,740 yuan/mt, up 0.19%. Trading volume reached 29,000 lots, and open interest stood at 164,000 lots.

On April 24, at the CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference & Copper Industry Expo - Secondary Copper Industry Green Development Forum, Zhang Junbing, Director of the Secondary Copper Business Department of Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd., elaborated on the downstream consumption status of secondary copper in China.

On April 28 (Monday), the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) held a meeting in Lisbon, Portugal, on April 25, 2025. Global copper mine production is expected to increase by 2.3% in 2025 and by 2.5% in 2026. In 2025, world mine production is projected to rise by 2.3% to 23.5 million mt, primarily driven by additional output from expansions at Kamoa (DRC) and Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia), as well as the start-up of the new Malmyz mine (Russia). These gains will be partially offset by expected declines in Australia, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan. In 2026, production is expected to grow at a higher rate of 2.5%, supported by continued additions/expansions, anticipated improvements in output from Chile and Zambia, and a recovery in Indonesia from the production decline in 2025. Over these two years, a series of smaller expansions and the start-up of some small- and medium-sized mines will also contribute to the increase in global production, particularly in the DRC, Brazil, Iran, Uzbekistan, Ecuador, Eritrea, Greece, Angola, and Morocco. Global refined copper production is expected to grow by approximately 2.9% in 2025 and by 1.5% in 2026. In 2025, refined copper production is projected to increase by about 2.9%, supported by ongoing capacity expansions in China and the start-up of new capacities in several other countries, notably Indonesia, India, and the DRC. Overall, primary electrorefining production (from concentrates) is expected to increase by 3%, hydrometallurgical production by 3.3%, and secondary production (from scrap) by 2.2%. In 2026, global refined copper production is expected to decline by 1.5%. Although refined production will continue to benefit from new and expanded capacities, the growth in primary electrorefining production is expected to be constrained by limited concentrate supply, partially offsetting the growth in hydrometallurgical and secondary (scrap) production. Due to new and expanded capacities in several countries, hydrometallurgical production is expected to increase by 2.2% in 2026, while secondary refined production (from scrap) is anticipated to grow by 6.4%. Global apparent refined copper usage is expected to increase by approximately 2.4% in 2025 and by 1.8% in 2026. The usage growth rate has been revised downward from the Group's September 2024 forecast, given the uncertainties surrounding international trade policies that could weaken the global economic outlook and negatively impact copper demand. Global refined copper usage growth is expected to be 2.4% in 2025 (down from 2.7% previously). China's usage is expected to grow by about 2% in 2025 and by 0.8% in 2026. Asia will continue to be the main driver of global growth, while demand in other major copper-using regions (EU, Japan, US) remains sluggish. However, overall, global usage is expected to continue to be supported by improvements in manufacturing activity in some key copper end-use sectors, the energy transition, urbanization, ongoing demand for digitalization (data centers), and the development of new information system capacities in India and some other countries. The global refined copper balance forecast indicates a surplus of approximately 289,000 mt in 2025 and about 209,000 mt in 2026. ICSG recognizes that global market balances may differ from forecasts due to many factors that could alter production and usage projections. In this regard, it should be noted that actual market balance outcomes have deviated from ICSG's market balance forecasts in recent instances due to unforeseen developments. In studying its global market supply and demand forecasts, ICSG applies an apparent demand calculation method for China that does not cover changes in unreported inventories (State Reserves Bureau, producers, consumers, merchants/traders, bonded), which can be significant during stockpiling or destocking periods and may significantly alter the global supply-demand balance. China's apparent copper demand is based solely on reported data (production ± net trade / inventory changes at the Shanghai Futures Exchange). ICSG expects a surplus of approximately 289,000 mt in 2025, slightly higher than the 194,000 mt surplus forecast in September last year. A surplus of about 209,000 mt is currently expected for 2026. ICSG's next meeting will be held in Lisbon in October 2025. (Webstock Inc.)