U.S.-Iran negotiations in Switzerland collapsed, causing oil prices to jump 2%. The trigger was that last Sunday’s U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland lasted only 1.5 hours before being suspended — during the negotiations, Trump issued a threat of "more forceful strikes," prompting the Iranian delegation to walk out and protest on the spot. Iran has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. side has threatened to "take over the shipping lanes," sharply escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Fundamentals Moderate While Macro Conditions Complex, Short-term Lead Prices to Retrace Some Gains] Recently, the macroeconomic situation outside China has been complex, market risk-averse sentiment has been relatively strong, and maintenance at China's primary lead and secondary lead enterprises has increased...

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Hikes Heat Up, LME Zinc Center Slightly Declines] Last Friday, LME zinc recorded a large bearish candlestick, with support from the middle Bollinger Band below and resistance from the upper Bollinger Band above, while the MACD bearish candlestick expanded. Last Friday, expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes heated up......

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[Price review] Silver prices stabilized and rebounded this week (6.15-6.18) after a continuous early decline. Easing US-Iran tensions saw both domestic and overseas futures hold up well, with the price center edging up slightly WoW. Market attention was focused on the Fed’s FOMC meeting early Thursday morning. The Fed kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, the fourth straight hold, but the latest dot plot showed a generally more hawkish shift among officials—the majority expected no rate cuts this year, and nearly half saw further rate hikes as possible. The statement noted inflation remains above target, and rising energy costs and geopolitical risks add to inflation uncertainty. Fed Chairman Warsh reiterated at the press conference that the Fed is firmly committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% long-term goal and will not pivot to accommodative policy in the short term. Following the meeting, silver dipped briefly but then recovered on technical buying as expectations of further rate hikes did not materially increase. On the geopolitical front, a US-Iran memorandum of understanding was formally signed and took effect, kicking off a 60-day negotiation period. In industrial demand, premiums for mainstream quotations of national standard silver ingots against TD in the Shanghai market were basically flat WoW; mainstream quotations stayed at parity to slight premiums, with most trades concluded at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg against TD on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Downstream consumption turned sluggish as silver prices rebounded slightly. On the inventory side, as the holiday approached, some suppliers cleared their stock, while the willingness to sell was weak given locked long-term contracts and reserved export quotas. Additionally, some upstream smelters started routine maintenance. Social inventories of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen saw overall destocking. As for the gold/silver ratio, the LBMA gold/silver ratio was around 67 as of June 17. [Key data] Bearish: The June FOMC meeting kept rates at 3.50-3.75% unchanged, but the dot plot showed the majority of members expected no rate cuts this year and some supported further hikes, indicating an overall hawkish Fed stance. Fed Chairman Warsh said inflation remains clearly above the 2% target, monetary policy will stay restrictive, and clear rate-cut signals are unlikely in the near term. The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with unemployment around 4.3%, dampening market expectations for rapid easing. Bullish: A US-Iran memorandum of understanding was formally signed and took effect, initiating a 60-day negotiation period. Peru's energy crisis persists, with the nationwide state of emergency extended to year-end. Already 12 large mines have adopted staggered production, and May silver output is expected to decline 5-8%. The global supply-demand gap remains, offering some floor support to silver prices. [Near-term Focus] June 20: US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary; June 26: US Q1 GDP final; June 27: US May core PCE price index; Key focus: changes in US inflation data, developments in the Middle East situation, and the progress of strait reopening. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to hold up well next week. Ongoing attention is needed on the uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran situation. Trump has threatened Iran with further strikes if it fails to comply with the terms of the agreement. After the Fed’s June policy meeting concluded, market uncertainty about the policy path temporarily subsided. Although the Fed’s overall tone remains hawkish, expectations for additional rate hikes have not increased. Silver’s previous bearish factors have been largely released. However, US Treasury yields will continue to exert some pressure on silver, and prices may move sideways. On the domestic fundamentals side, downstream enterprises maintain rigid demand-based purchases while pushing for lower prices. Selling pressure on low-priced spot cargo has eased, and social inventory of spot silver ingots has been destocking overall. Yet sentiment has not fully recovered. Mainstream spot transaction discounts/premiums are expected to remain within the range of parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg against the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD contract. A shift toward higher premiums in the short term appears unlikely.

[SMM Precious Metal Express] On the Middle East front, the US and Iranian presidents signed an electronic memorandum of understanding, with the official 14-point text largely matching media reports. A formal signing is set for Friday in Switzerland. Trump warned of resuming bombing if unsatisfied with the MOU and discussed strikes on Hezbollah with Syrian leadership. Southern Lebanon came under multiple Israeli attacks, with Israel's finance minister stating no withdrawal on Friday or thereafter.

June 12, 2026 Following a four-day sell-off of over $400, triggered by unexpectedly strong U.S. labor market and inflation data, the price of gold made a sharp turnaround on Thursday. A robust job market and persistent inflation had previously significantly dampened hopes for imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. As a result, the non-interest-bearing precious metal lost nearly 10% of its value, breaking below the technically critical 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023. However, this massive selling pressure came to an abrupt end late Thursday with a price jump of $140. The trigger was a report from Washington: U.S. President Donald Trump had called off a planned military strike against Iran in favor of new diplomatic approaches. At first glance, the recovery in the gold price seems paradoxical in this context, as geopolitical détente typically dampens demand for safe-haven assets. The price rise is therefore primarily attributable to short-covering. Short sellers took advantage of the news to quickly close out their positions in light of the unpredictable geopolitical environment. Despite the strong rebound, the chart picture remains weak for now. For a sustainable trend reversal, the precious metal must reclaim the 200-day moving average—which now acts as a key resistance level—on a closing price basis. Only then will the market signal that buyers are regaining control. Until then, investors are navigating a complex landscape: On the one hand, restrictive U.S. monetary policy is capping upside potential; on the other hand, a failure of diplomatic talks in the Middle East could trigger new flight-to-safety moves into gold at any time. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/goldpreis-vor-trendwende-200-tage-linie-wird-zum-schluessel

June 11, 2026 The price of gold fell by more than three percent yesterday, Wednesday. Instead of benefiting from the military escalation between the U.S. and Iran as a safe-haven asset, the precious metal came under pressure. This is because the market currently views the conflict in the Middle East primarily as an inflationary factor with direct implications for U.S. monetary policy. While military conflicts in the Middle East traditionally boost demand for gold, the impact on the energy market currently outweighs this effect. Iran responded to U.S. military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz with counterattacks on U.S. bases. As a result, crude oil prices rose further, fueling general price pressures. Instead of speculating on interest rate cuts, the market is now betting on a more restrictive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Since rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of interest-free gold, this factor overshadows the classic safe-haven appeal. Gold: Expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike this year weigh on the market Market expectations have shifted noticeably: A probability of just under 67 percent for an interest rate hike in December is now priced in. Although the latest US consumer price data —with a 0.2 percent rise in the core rate in May—was more moderate than in the previous month, this did little to alter the underlying restrictive trend. Particular attention is now focused on the US producer price index, as higher energy costs are reflected there particularly early on. Technically, the price decline has clouded the chart picture, as gold has broken below the trading range established since late March. The closing price near the daily low signals ongoing short-term weakness. Structural pillars for gold remain intact Despite this interest-rate-driven consolidation, the structural pillars supporting the precious metal remain intact. Many observers agree that, in the long term, central banks’ continued gold purchases, growing global government debt, and concerns about currency stability continue to serve as a robust fundamental foundation. Inflation thus has a dual effect: while it weighs on the interest rate outlook in the short term, it reinforces gold’s role as a monetary asset in the long term. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-stuerzt-weiter-ab-zinsangst-schlaegt-sicheren-hafen

[Domestic and overseas aluminum prices see a modest simultaneous recovery; China's destocking stabilizes with limited upside room] SMM maintains its assessment that inventory will drop to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and is expected to further approach 1.2 million mt by end-June or early July. The futures market sees short-term stabilization signals, but high domestic inventory pressure remains relatively evident, which is expected to limit the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

[Geopolitical Risks Dominate Market, SHFE and LME Both Move Lower] At the start of the week, the situation in the Middle East remained volatile, and LME zinc fluctuated; subsequently, the US dollar index declined, and LME zinc rose; however, as market expectations for the US Fed to maintain higher interest rates for longer intensified and the US struck Iran, the center of LME zinc shifted lower; then, Trump announced the resumption of “heavy strikes” against Iran, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement was disrupted, and LME zinc quickly moved lower...