SMM, July 6 news: In June, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes heated up, with the US dollar index gaining over 2% for the month. This was compounded by the electronics industry entering its traditional off-season and weak end-use demand, along with market skepticism over the sustainability of the AI sector's boom, which led to concentrated profit-taking from earlier high-level positions. Multiple factors jointly dragged tin prices lower, with SHFE tin falling 7.08% and LME tin dropping 6.68% in June monthly. Entering July, Warsh remarked at the Sintra Forum that "inflation expectations have declined and inflation risks have receded over the past four weeks." Coupled with US June non-farm payrolls data coming in below expectations, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes cooled somewhat. Meanwhile, tech stocks staged a rebound. Multiple tailwinds drove tin prices to drift higher in early July. As of around 16:51 on July 6, LME tin rose 1.26% to $52,970/mt, with its July monthly performance provisionally up 2.56%; SHFE tin gained 3.09% to 410,360 yuan/mt, with its July monthly performance provisionally up 5.4%. Spot side, in June, tin prices fell over 8%; in July, spot prices rose for several consecutive sessions, but a strong wait-and-see sentiment pervaded the market. For tin spot prices: SMM 1# tin spot prices posted four consecutive gains, quoted at 406,900–415,300 yuan/mt on July 6, with an average price of 411,100 yuan/mt, up 2.96% from the prior trading day. As tin prices rebounded, wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market intensified, with only some rigid demand purchases occurring and subdued overall trading activity. Looking at the monthly trend of tin spot prices, the average price of SMM 1# tin as of June 30 was 387,800 yuan/mt. Compared with the average price of 425,000 yuan/mt on May 29, it fell by 37,200 yuan/mt over the span of just over a month, a decline of 8.75%. Notably, when tin prices approached 380,000 yuan/mt, downstream enterprise restocking demand saw a phase of release. Fundamental side ► Production: June Refined Tin Production Edges Up MoM According to data compiled by SMM based on market communication, in June 2026, China's refined tin production edged up MoM, with overall output remaining relatively steady. The slight uptick in June refined tin production was driven by two main factors: On one hand, raw material supply showed marginal improvement, as previous incremental overseas tin ore imports materialized. Although the pace of production resumptions at Myanmar mines remained slow, ore has been flowing out continuously, alleviating domestic raw material shortages to some extent. On the other hand, increased arrivals of imported ore cargoes drove smelting TCs steadily higher, offering a phased easing of the longstanding raw material tightness and creating conditions for smelters to raise operating rates and boost output. However, future production expansion faces multiple constraints: from May to July every year, Myanmar enters its traditional rainy season, which limits both open-pit mining operations and ore transport. As a result, short-term imported ore volumes are expected to pull back MoM. Overall, the refined tin supply is marginally loose at present, but downstream industries have entered the traditional consumption off-season, weakening both supply and demand sides simultaneously. In the short term, a significant output surge appears unlikely. ►Imports: Tin ore imports rose both YoY and MoM in May; imports from Myanmar surged 384.5% YoY In May, China’s tin ore imports reached 16,800 mt (equivalent to about 6,408 mt in metal content), up 7.07% MoM and 25.61% YoY, an increase of 1,221 mt in metal content from April (which was equivalent to 5,187 mt). January-May cumulative imports totaled 85,900 mt, up 71.41% YoY. In May, China’s tin ingot imports were 1,838 mt, down 34.4% MoM and 11.46% YoY; January-April cumulative imports reached 11,196 mt, up 17.75% YoY. Import and export data for the tin industry chain from 2025 to May 2026 show that the global tin market’s supply-demand pattern is undergoing significant structural adjustments, characterized by accelerating recovery of overseas mine supply, easing of domestic raw material supply pressure, increased smelting output due to lower raw material costs, and constrained exports amid weak overseas demand. In terms of raw material supply, cumulative tin ore imports in January-May 2026 reached 85,998 mt, surging 71.41% YoY, while May alone registered 16,831 mt, up 7.07% MoM and soaring 25.61% YoY. This strong rebound was mainly driven by the recovery of Myanmar ore, with tin ore imports from Myanmar hitting 6,634 mt in May, skyrocketing 384.5% YoY, and the January-May cumulative figure spiking as high as 203.49% YoY. In contrast, although tin ore imports from countries other than Myanmar still maintained a cumulative increase of 34.72%, they declined 15.23% YoY in May alone, indicating a more moderate recovery in ore supply from non-Myanmar sources. ►Inventories: SMM weekly tin ingot social inventory across three regions continued destocking for four consecutive weeks. China’s tin ingot social inventory: According to SMM data, as of July 4, 2026, the total tin ingot social inventory across three regions in China stood at 7,299 mt, a sharp WoW decline of 1,374 mt, or 15.84%, from 8,673 mt the prior week (June 26). In terms of trend, since the stage high of 13,604 mt in early June, China’s tin ingot social inventory has been destocking for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative destocking of as much as 46.4% over the past month. The destocking slope exhibited a “slow-then-steep” characteristic. The current inventory level has fallen back to the year’s low, and the market supply-demand pattern has seen notable marginal improvement. Observing by region, inventory in Shanghai dropped to 3,750 mt, a weekly decrease of 996 mt, contributing 72.5% of the total weekly destocking volume, making it the dominant driver of this destocking round and reflecting faster trade turnover in east China and a substantive rebound in downstream purchase willingness. Guangdong inventory fell in tandem to 3,449 mt, down 378 mt WoW, accounting for 27.5% of total destocking, confirming that downstream rigid demand, led by solder enterprises in south China, maintained resilience and the pace of stockpiling picked up. The underlying logic is driven, on the one hand, by restocking after price pullbacks: the previously high tin price dampened downstream purchases, but this inhibitory effect gradually subsided as prices recently returned to rational levels, unleashing pent-up rigid orders in a concentrated manner and accelerating the digestion of visible inventory. LME Tin Inventory: LME tin inventory data stood at 8,575 mt on June 30, compared with 8,850 mt on May 29, indicating a decline in LME tin inventory during June. SMM Outlook On the macro front: In July, multiple macro events in and outside China will continue to disturb tin price movements. Overseas, focus on the minutes of the June US Fed FOMC meeting, US CPI and PCE inflation data, and the month-end US Fed meeting. Earlier, Waller indicated that inflation risks have eased, while the June non-farm payrolls data missed expectations, leading to a phased cooling of market bets on rate hikes. If subsequent inflation data rebound again and the US Fed strikes a hawkish tone, a stronger US dollar will weigh on tin prices; otherwise, continued easing expectations will provide valuation support for tin prices. Domestically, the central bank has increased liquidity injections, ultra-long special government bonds are being steadily implemented, and stimulus policies related to high-end manufacturing technological transformation and equipment upgrades are gradually taking effect, which will benefit medium and long-term consumption in tin downstream sectors such as semiconductors, AI computing power, and new energy. However, in the short term, the weak pattern of the traditional off-season in the electronics sector is unlikely to reverse quickly, and the pace at which domestic demand policy dividends are released will directly determine the strength of downstream spot restocking. Fundamentals: On the supply side, the overall tightness of tin ore supply persists, though marginal supply increase signals have grown; smelters are maintaining steady production with no large-scale production cuts for now. On the demand side, the market has entered the traditional consumption off-season, with downstream solder enterprises generally cautious in procurement, relying solely on rigid-demand purchases, while high prices are significantly suppressing purchase willingness. On the inventory side, tin inventories both in and outside China remain in a destocking trend, providing inventory-side support for tin prices. In summary, changes in macro expectations combined with the performance of the tech sector will influence the amplitude of tin price fluctuations. Tight ore supply and low overall inventories form a relatively strong fundamental floor, underpinning tin prices; but weak demand during the off-season will continue to drag on futures, limiting the upside room for tin prices. Looking ahead, close attention should be paid to the US Fed's policy direction and the prosperity of the semiconductor industry chain, while continuously observing the pace of destocking in and outside China, and waiting for a substantive recovery on the demand side, which can then bring new upward momentum to tin prices. Recommended reading:

SMM July 6: The SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,685 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 22,970 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 22,685 yuan/mt, and settled at 22,885 yuan/mt, up 225 yuan/mt or 0.99% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 168,800 lots, open interest stood at 253,200 lots, with a daily open interest change of -9,839 lots. The price reclaimed the MA5 (22,612) but remained below the MA10 (22,895), MA20 (23,463), MA40 (23,967.75) and MA60 (24,254.42). The moving average system remains in a bearish arrangement, and the short-term rebound has not yet reversed the weak pattern. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (-449.81) is below DEA (-383.17), and the histogram recorded -133.27, showing bearish momentum still exists but is narrowing marginally. Trading volume of 168,800 lots declined by 65,400 lots from the previous trading day, and the daily open interest change of -9,839 lots points to continued capital outflow. Today’s rise largely reflects a technical repair driven by bears covering positions. SMM Commentary: US-Iran indirect technical talks have made progress, with discussions around fund returns and strait security, and nuclear consultations are about to start. The geopolitical risk premium continues to converge, while the Strait of Hormuz management dispute persists and the resumption of navigation through the strait remains uncertain. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, pressuring nonferrous metals prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. The alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,716 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 2,730 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 2,705 yuan/mt, and settled at 2,720 yuan/mt, down 2 yuan/mt or 0.07%. Trading volume was 193,200 lots, open interest stood at 334,200 lots, with a daily open interest change of 11,220 lots. Prices are still below the MA5 (2,748.20), MA10 (2,790.80), MA20 (2,839.30), MA40 (2,815.55) and MA60 (2,799.83). The moving average system maintains a bearish divergence, and the downward trend has not yet been repaired. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (-23.67) is below DEA (-3.94), and the histogram widened to -39.47, with bearish momentum continuing to be released. Trading volume of 193,200 lots decreased by 68,000 lots from the previous trading day, but the daily open interest change of 11,220 lots indicates capital still entered the futures market at low levels, and short-term bearish initiative remains strong. SMM Commentary: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, China’s total alumina inventory edged down WoW. Looking at the inventory structure, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued to destock slightly, but due to large recent price fluctuations and divergent market views on the outlook, restocking willingness was weak and end-users mainly adopted a wait-and-see stance. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly affected by some enterprises in the north undergoing periodic maintenance; under production constraints, they prioritized consuming in-factory inventory. After the maintenance ends next week, this impact is expected to gradually fade. Port inventories continued to accumulate, with port arrivals from outside China staying high, as imported resources supplemented spot supply and added market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Before Guinea’s bauxite quota policy is implemented, the market lacks clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventory is expected to shift from weak destocking to a slight inventory buildup, supply-demand conditions will stay loose, and alumina prices will remain in the doldrums. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research and decision-making advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and should not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

The essence of this supply crunch is a "three-layered squeeze": Layer 1: Physical cutoff – the Hormuz blockade severed Middle Eastern supply, halting nearly half of global seaborne trade. Layer 2: Policy lockdown – overlapping export bans from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkey blocked alternative supply sources, further tightening global tradable volumes. Layer 3: Capacity and inventory collapse – war-damaged Middle Eastern production facilities are slow to restart.

On July 6, SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price edged down.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 7.06 Futures: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2609 futures contract bottomed out and rebounded, hitting a low of 2,705 yuan/mt before staging a strong rebound, eventually closing at 2,820 yuan/mt, edging up 1 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The daily candlestick formed a bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow, indicating strong support at the 2,700 yuan/mt level. From a moving averages perspective, the current price at 2,820 yuan/mt has risen above MA5 (2748.2) and MA40 (2815.55), but remains under resistance from MA10 (2790.8) and MA20 (2839.3). The short-term moving averages (MA5/MA10) are in a bearish alignment, while the medium-term MA20 still forms resistance above, indicating a tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The price oscillated around MA40. If it breaks through the MA20 (2839.3) resistance on high volume, it is expected to open up upside room; conversely, if it repeatedly fails to break through, caution is needed for a pullback to test the MA5 (2748.2) support. Overall, the futures show a consolidating pattern of 'bottoming out to confirm support while resistance persists above.' The short-term directional move will depend on volume confirmation and the battle at MA20. Ore market: As of July 3, 2026, the SMM Imported Bauxite Index was reported at $70.11/mt, up $0.13/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea FOB average price was $39/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $71/mt, flat; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $64/mt, flat; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $58.5/mt, flat; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was $52/mt, flat; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $62.5/mt, flat; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was $78/mt, flat; the Turkish bauxite CFR price was $76/mt, down $2.5/mt from the previous Friday. Overall, for domestic ore, mine operations in Shanxi, Henan and other regions have recovered somewhat, and combined with falling alumina prices, sentiment among alumina refineries to push for lower raw material prices has strengthened, causing domestic ore prices to decline from earlier levels. As of July 2, in Shanxi, the EXW crushing plant price of bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and alumina content of 60%, excluding VAT, was around 530-550 yuan/mt, with the average price up 10 yuan/mt MoM; in Henan, similar bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content, EXW crushing plant price, excluding VAT, was around 500-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guiyang, bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 60% alumina content, EXW price including VAT, was at 490-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guangxi, bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 53% alumina content, EXW crushing plant price excluding VAT, was at 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported ore side, uncertainties around Guinea’s July long-term contract prices and quota policies, combined with the traditional rainy season, prompted some mines to control shipments, lending some support to ore prices. Meanwhile, alumina refineries in China still held high inventories (equivalent to around 95 days), which limited their purchase willingness, and the tug-of-war over offer/bid prices between buyers and sellers persisted. In the short term, ore prices are expected to consolidate at highs. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea’s bauxite quota policy and the trend of ocean freight rates. Spot Prices: As of July 3, 2026, the SMM alumina index was at 2,773.71 yuan/mt, down 0.94 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,791.91 yuan/mt, down 0.34 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,818.66 yuan/mt, down 1.73 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,829.98 yuan/mt, down 1.99 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,747.77 yuan/mt, down 1.59 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,674.59 yuan/mt, down 0.80 yuan/mt MoM. Daily Spot-Futures Spread: According to SMM data, on July 3, the SMM alumina index stood at a premium of 47.71 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract’s latest traded price at 11:30 a.m. Warrant Daily: On July 3, total registered alumina warrants increased by 6,312 mt from the previous trading day to 271,600 mt. In Shandong, total registered alumina warrants remained flat at 32,417 mt; in Henan, they held steady at 17,698 mt; in Guangxi, they were unchanged at 8,429 mt; in Gansu, they stayed flat at 11,704 mt; in Xinjiang, they rose by 6,312 mt to 201,300 mt. Markets outside China: As of July 3, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $330/mt, the ocean freight rate was $32.30/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate stood near 6.79. This translates to a selling price of approximately 2,863.50 yuan/mt at major Chinese ports, 89.79 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index. Summary: Total alumina inventory in China edged up MoM, with relatively small overall changes. Breaking it down, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters declined, mainly because some smelters actively reduced high-priced in-factory inventories amid elevated spot alumina prices, leading to lower raw material stockpiling. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries edged up, as maintenance-related production cuts in Shanxi were offset by output increases in south China, resulting in limited overall changes. At ports, new vessels arrived successively, increasing port inventory. Warrant inventory trended downwards as the willingness to deliver to delivery warehouses waned due to invoice issuance issues and the spot-futures price spread. Inventory in transit and at yard stocks accumulated, mainly because warrants gradually matured and converted into spot cargoes, coupled with continued shipments from Guangxi, resulting in an increase in in-transit cargoes. The operational landscape for alumina is expected to see relatively small changes this week. Some enterprises using domestic ore may schedule maintenance due to ore supply-side issues, but the impact on monthly production will be limited, and overall inventory levels are expected to remain at current levels. On the price front, as the regional alumina mismatch problem gradually eases, the spot price center is likely to pull back, with the subsequent trend coming under pressure [All data other than publicly available information is derived from public data, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference purposes only and does not constitute any decision-making advice.]

[SMM Tin Morning Update: Macro Tailwinds Keep Emerging, SHFE Tin Surges, Spot Tin Trading Recovers]

[SMM Morning Brief: After Catch-Up Decline, Market Shifts to Wild Swings as Tight Ore Supply Provides a Floor and Macro Headwinds Intensify the Tug-of-War]

Published：June 29, 2026 1. Review – First Test of the 4,000-USD Mark As feared, the falling 50-day moving average (4,468 USD) has posed an insurmountable hurdle for the price of gold in recent months. Since the last bounce off this moving average on May 12 at $4,773, the downtrend has accelerated significantly. In particular, breaking below the round $4,400 mark led to a sharp sell-off in the first week of June, bringing the price down to $4,023. Although the subsequent recovery was swift, reaching $4,382 within a few days, the Fed’s interest rate decision and the subsequent press conference under new Fed Chair Warsh once again triggered strong selling pressure. Within just seven days, the gold price plummeted to $3,959. The psychologically important $4,000 mark could no longer withstand the selling pressure, and gold fell to its lowest level since early November 2025. 1.1 $4,000 as a Key Level Even though price declines on the downside have recently accelerated significantly, the bears have overall made only slow progress on the downside so far. This week, the low set on March 23 was breached by $140. It took the bears about three months to achieve this! At the same time, however, the broader correction that began in late January remains unquestionably intact. Attention is now focused on the broad support zone around the $4,000 mark. Given the sometimes panicked sentiment of the past few days, a bottoming process typical of early summer is certainly possible here. The erratic and volatile back-and-forth of recent weeks supports this view. However, considerable correction potential has now built up in the stock markets, which is likely to weigh on precious metal prices as well in the event of a significant pullback. For now, patience remains the order of the day. Experience shows that precious metal prices often find a bottom in June or July, from which a substantial summer rally usually begins. For this to happen, however, the gold price would need to hold the $4,000 level and the silver price the $55 level. Alternatively, prices could drop another notch lower first. 2. Chart Analysis: Gold in U.S. Dollars 2.1 Weekly Chart: Bottom Formation in the Coming Days and Weeks Gold in U.S. dollars, weekly chart as of June 27, 2026. Source: Tradingview Since reaching an all-time high of $5,602 at the end of January, the gold market has been in a healthy, yet increasingly complex, correction phase. With the recent low of $3,959, the price has now fallen below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous uptrend (from $1,615 to $5,620). The next relevant retracement levels are at $3,608 (50 %) and $3,138 (61.8 %). This makes it clear that the worst-case scenario we have repeatedly outlined—in the range around $3,500—remains valid and still cannot be ruled out. In the short term, the weekly candles continue to slide southward along the lower weekly Bollinger Band ($3,997). However, one to a maximum of three additional weeks of strong downward pressure are likely to represent the maximum scenario for the bears’ run. Afterward, a bottoming process and the onset of a recovery—or a summer rally—are to be expected. At the same time, after nearly five months of correction and a price decline of over 29%, the weekly stochastic oscillator is clearly in oversold territory. Against this backdrop as well, the remaining downside risk appears significantly limited over the coming days and weeks. Should the correction nevertheless continue in the broader picture, the oscillator would first have to recover. Accordingly, the odds are good that the gold price will form a bottom now or in July in the range between 3,800 and 4,000 USD. Overall, the weekly chart remains bearish but is heavily oversold. A recovery or counter-movement is already on the horizon and could begin in July or August. In the bigger picture, however, the correction could drag on and bring new lows in the fall. 2.2 Daily Chart: New Buy Signal Gold in U.S. dollars, daily chart as of June 27, 2026. Source: Tradingview On a daily basis, the price of gold has lost contact with the still-slowly-rising 200-day moving average (USD 4,474) over the past three weeks. The gap widened at times to nearly 13%, underscoring the currently weak technical condition. Only a return above this closely watched moving average would significantly brighten the chart picture. By the end of the week, however, prices had recovered noticeably and closed the week at $4,088. The recovery that has begun should initially lead to the $4,120 range and, ideally, could extend directly to around $4,220 without any major pullbacks. The positive divergence in the daily stochastic is supportive here, as the indicator no longer fully confirmed the recent low of $3,959. In addition, the oscillator clearly reached its oversold zone. This suggests that a bottoming process may already have begun. Nevertheless, it cannot be ruled out that, in the course of the typical early-summer volatility, there will be further pullbacks before a sustained counter-movement can take hold. Overall, the daily chart could thus be on the verge of a trend reversal. The daily stochastic has turned upward in the oversold zone and offers further upside potential. However, a final pullback below the $4,000 mark down to the area around $3,840 remains possible. 3. Gold Futures Market Structure Commitments of Traders Report for the gold futures contract dated June 23, 2026. Source: Sentimenttrader According to the weekly Commitments of Traders Report (COT Report) published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), commercial traders held a cumulative short position of 207,563 gold futures contracts at the closing price of $4,331 on June 16. The sharp price decline of the past few weeks has not yet led commercial traders to significantly reduce their short positions. Overall, there have been hardly any notable shifts since the beginning of the year, which supports our thesis that the COMEX is increasingly losing influence. In a long-term comparison, however, the commercial short position remains at a significantly elevated level. Based on data from the past 22 years, the CoT report should therefore continue to be interpreted negatively. 4. Gold Sentiment Sentiment Optix for gold as of June 23, 2026. Source: Sentimenttrader The sharp correction since late January has completely erased the previously highly euphoric sentiment. Since the low in March, sentiment indicators have been moving in the neutral, largely inconclusive range. In the worst-case scenario, the sentiment pendulum could still swing to the opposite extreme of panic and fear. However, this would require significantly lower prices, which we would currently only expect in the context of a severe stock market crash. In summary, sentiment remains in the neutral range with an Optix value of 58. Ideally, the Optix will soon turn upward again above the 50–55 range. Otherwise, the probability of a more severe correction will increase noticeably. 5. Seasonality of Gold Seasonality of the gold price over the last 17 years as of May 1, 2026. Source: Seasonax Typically, after its spring correction, the gold price finds a bottom in June or July and can then recover through September. Given the recent low of $3,959 and the erratic price movements of the past few weeks, such a turning point could already be taking shape in the coming days or weeks. August, in particular, has historically shown strong performance. Overall, the seasonal traffic light is gradually shifting from red to orange and will then turn green starting in mid-July. 6. Macro Update – The facade is still holding, but the foundation is increasingly eroding Share of the “Magnificent 7” in the S&P 500, as of June 25, 2026. Source: The Diary Of A CEO At first glance, the financial markets continue to appear surprisingly robust, but beneath the surface, warning signs are mounting. While the major U.S. indices are trading near their record highs, market breadth has noticeably deteriorated, and numerous former market leaders—such as Oracle, Salesforce, Netflix, Palantir, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon—have long been in significant correction or bear market phases. For many of these high-flyers of recent years, the technical damage is now considerable. The fact that former growth and AI winners, as well as heavyweights from the megacap segment, have in some cases fallen sharply from their highs shows just how narrow the foundation of the still-ongoing bull market has become. As a result, the technology sector in particular—as the central driver of the boom—has now become highly vulnerable. 6.1 The Limits of the AI Boom Free cash flow forecast for the hyperscalers, as of June 26, 2026. Source: Financelot Even among the AI hyperscalers, the euphoria is beginning to show cracks. Valuations now appear so stretched that the gap between free cash flow and the major indices is unlikely to be sustained indefinitely. At the same time, declines in rental prices for AI GPUs and in data center profit margins are already evident. This reinforces a familiar pattern: either investments decline, revenues catch up significantly, or the market corrects. Based on current evidence, the third scenario appears increasingly plausible. This is because the AI boom thrives not only on technological strength but also on extreme capital investment over a very short period of time. If competitive pressure from China puts additional strain on margins and demand does not grow at the same pace, the hyperscalers will likely have to scale back their spending sooner or later. 6.2 Speculation on Credit Drives the Markets Margin debt as a percentage of GDP at an all-time high, as of June 6, 2026. Source: Hussman Strategic Advisors At the same time, margin debt as a percentage of GDP has reached a new all-time high of over 4%, surpassing even the levels seen in August 2021, March 2000, and July 2007. Historically, such extreme levels have always been followed by sharp pullbacks—not because a chart predicts the future, but because high leverage makes those who have to sell at the wrong moment particularly vulnerable. This is precisely where the real danger lies: as long as prices rise, debt acts as a catalyst. As soon as the market turns, that same leverage becomes a risk factor and amplifies the downward movement. In an environment where market breadth is already crumbling, this can significantly intensify the momentum of a sell-off. 6.3 Space Speculation as a Prime Example Most recently, the hype surrounding SpaceX’s IPO was unprecedented. It is precisely this euphoria and risk appetite in the market—combined with the stock’s extreme valuation—that make it a prime example of a speculative bubble, as the highly ambitious visions of the future, AI fantasies, and space dreams are far ahead of current business realities. An IPO with an implied valuation of around 2 billion USD and a revenue multiple of about 100 appears to be barely supported by fundamentals. As long as the bulk of the narrative rests on Starlink and projections reaching far into the future—such as Mars colonies, asteroid mining, or space-based AI—the risk-reward ratio remains massively skewed and highly unfavorable. 6.4 Late-cycle characteristics are piling up Boom & Bust Cycles, June 26, 2026. Source: Visual Capitalist The narrowing market breadth, combined with a “super-IPO,” is a classic late-cycle characteristic. When only a few mega-caps and rampant speculation on credit are driving the index higher, while a broad segment of the market is already giving way and “smart money” is cashing out via IPOs, the risk of an abrupt revaluation rises significantly! Boom-and-bust cycles are not an exceptional phenomenon, but a recurring feature of developing economies. Markets rarely move in a straight line but instead oscillate between excessive optimism and excessive pessimism. Phases of strong expansion are regularly followed by excesses, rising risks, and finally a correction that resolves imbalances and lays the foundation for the next upswing. 6.5 Semiconductors as a Warning Sign Semiconductor Index, as of June 16, 2026. Source: Creative Planning Given the parabolic rise in semiconductor stocks, history also speaks clearly. To date, there have been only two periods in which the “Semiconductor Index” rose by more than 230% within 14 months: from December 1998 to February 2000 and from April 2025 to the present. The fact that these are precisely the only two such episodes underscores just how extraordinary—and at the same time fragile—such parabolic rises typically are. The warnings from prominent investors are correspondingly stark. Ray Dalio warns of an environment reminiscent of earlier bubble phases, and Jeremy Grantham describes the U.S. stock markets as historically expensive in light of the AI euphoria. 6.6 Fed Under Scrutiny Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains wary of premature expectations of monetary easing. At its most recent meeting, it kept key interest rates unchanged but simultaneously raised its inflation forecasts and made it clear that the fight against inflation is not over. Under Kevin Warsh, the central bank is also placing less emphasis on traditional forward guidance. As a result, markets will have to focus more on the data going forward, which is likely to make monetary policy expectations more volatile and reactions in the financial markets more erratic. On top of that, markets often react nervously in the first few months following a change in leadership at the Fed, as monetary policy, reaction patterns, and communication styles must first settle into a new rhythm. It is striking, however, that markets have recently interpreted the Fed’s stance as more restrictive than its projections suggest. While higher interest rates have been priced in for the short term, the Fed’s projections for the coming years continue to point toward falling key interest rates. 6.7 Oil Remains the Pacesetter Oil short positions at an all-time high, as of June 22, 2026. Source: Zerohedge Of course, the oil price remains a key factor for the next phase of monetary policy. The recent easing of tensions in the Persian Gulf and the resumption of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have put pressure on the crude oil market and dampened inflationary momentum for the time being. Should this trend continue, the recent surge in inflation could potentially prove to be temporary. This would also increase pressure on the central bank to reconsider interest rate cuts later this year. Despite the easing of tensions, however, the geopolitical situation remains extremely fragile. A renewed escalation in the Middle East could drive oil prices significantly higher at any time, thereby abruptly worsening the inflation outlook. Therefore, the current oil oversupply should not be misinterpreted as a sign of a permanently more balanced market. The additional volumes of crude oil that have entered the market in recent weeks, the extremely low inventory levels, the still-restricted transport routes, and the ongoing shortage of refined products point more toward a temporary distortion than toward a sustainable easing of the situation. Added to this are record-high short positions. Consequently, volatility in the oil market will remain high, and another price spike is already on the horizon. 6.8 Shortages of Intermediate Goods Will Feed Through to Consumer Prices At the same time, new bottlenecks are emerging in critical intermediate goods. Sulfur and sulfuric acid, in particular, are becoming a bottleneck for the extraction of numerous industrial metals and, consequently, for the supply of copper, nickel, uranium, cobalt, and rare earth elements. However, this is not only an issue for industry but also for inflation. When intermediate products become scarcer and more expensive, the effects are felt with a delay on investment, production, and ultimately on consumer prices. 6.9 Precious Metals as a Strategic Buffer The bottom line is that signs of a late phase in the cycle are mounting: While the major indices continue to trade near their all-time highs and still appear strong, market breadth, credit excesses, semiconductor euphoria, AI hype, and speculative IPO fantasies are already painting a significantly more fragile picture. Added to this are a cautious central bank, a still-volatile oil market, and rising consumer prices. The environment thus remains vulnerable to abrupt shifts in direction: The facade is still standing, but the foundation is already becoming noticeably more fragile. This is precisely why real assets should continue to play a central role in the portfolio. Although precious metals have been correcting for nearly five months and the weekly chart now shows signs of being oversold, the macroeconomic environment—marked by high debt, inflation, and political uncertainty—continues to support a gradual increase in holdings as a strategic store of value and liquidity buffer. Gold and silver are and will remain important diversifiers and provide the best long-term protection against inflation. 7. Conclusion: Gold – Bottoming Out Ahead of the Summer Rally After more than five months of correction, the gold market is likely gradually ripe for a counter-movement or recovery. The brief dip below the round mark of $4,000 may already have marked the early-summer low. Alternatively, the bears may make one last attempt in the coming weeks to push the gold price below this psychological level. However, given the oversold weekly chart and the now more favorable seasonal trends, the odds point more toward an upside surprise. The upcoming recovery could turn out to be a summer rally, targeting at least the range between $4,400 and $4,500. However, we are not yet convinced of a sustained breakout from the downtrend channel with prices clearly above $4,550; it is quite possible, in fact, that the correction will continue for the time being following a summer rally. This view is also supported by the increasingly fragile environment in the stock markets, which is characterized by dwindling market breadth, high credit leverage, AI hype, and speculative one-off fantasies. Overall, the big picture remains dominated by high uncertainty, as geopolitics, oil prices, inflation, and interest rates can set the markets in motion again at any time, while consumers face increasing price pressure. This is precisely why gold and silver are indispensable strategic building blocks in a world where the facade still stands, but the foundation is increasingly eroding. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-building-a-bottom-before-the-summer-rally

Published：June 25, 2026 According to experts at Bank of America (BofA), the recent pullback in the gold market is less a cause for concern and more of a strategic buying opportunity. Although the changed macroeconomic environment is forcing analysts to postpone their extremely bullish $6,000 price target until spring 2027 for the time being, they say it is precisely this correction that now opens up lucrative prospects. The long-term fundamental setup has remained completely intact—and massive valuation discounts have formed, particularly in mining stocks, according to the analysts. Macro Weakness as a Strategic Window of Opportunity The fact that the price of gold has recently slipped below the key $4,000 mark is primarily due to short-term interest rate fears. The geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran, as well as the resulting global energy crisis, are forcing central banks to consider interest rate hikes instead of the hoped-for cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool , the market has almost fully priced in an interest rate hike for December. For strategic investors, however, this very interest-rate-driven period of weakness could open up an attractive window of opportunity. According to major investment banks such as BofA, UBS, and Goldman Sachs, the structural drivers of the gold price remain completely unaffected by the current interest rate debate: the spiraling U.S. budget deficits and the unstoppable trend toward de-dollarization are providing massive support to the market. A recent survey shows just how much potential still exists on the buying side: Nearly 75 percent of central banks want to reduce their dollar holdings, which is likely to inevitably lead to further gold purchases by central banks. At the same time, retail investors are significantly underinvested; gold investments currently account for only about 5.5 percent of global portfolios. Gold Mining Stocks: The Lever of the Current Correction BofA identifies the greatest opportunity in the current market environment in the gold mining stock sector. The correction in the spot market has led to discrepancies here that offer investors an asymmetric risk-reward ratio. A price-to-net asset value model from BofA shows: On average, the producers under observation are pricing in a gold price of just $3,354 per ounce. This means the sector is still trading at a massive 19 percent discount to the already-corrected spot price. This undervaluation is widespread across the entire industry, but the broad diversification also offers scope for targeted stock picking. While Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE: WPM) has an implied gold price of $4,395 in BofA’s calculation, Franco-Nevada (NYSE: FNV) sits at the lower end of the valuation range with an extremely conservative $2,416. Bank of America’s conclusion: Investors who can withstand short-term interest rate volatility will currently find rare entry points in a structurally supported market. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-sell-off-opens-up-new-opportunities-especially-for-mining-stocks

As of 2 July, London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium inventory: total stocks at 298,775 mt (-1,500 mt); live warrants 246,600 mt (unchanged); cancelled warrants 52,175 mt (-1,500 mt).