As of March 24, titanium dioxide prices continued to rise, with the SMM index up 4.6% since early 2026. Two rounds of price hikes were issued in March amid low inventories. Strong exports and production cuts supported gains, though sustainability post-peak season remains uncertain, hinging on downstream acceptance.

“Gold’s status as a haven may now be tarnished in the eyes of some as the precious metal is falling in price even as war roils the Middle East and financial markets alike, and some may even be tempted to say that the third major bull run in the commodity since 1971 is now over,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

The gold price is currently causing nervousness once again. Since the start of the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, the precious metal has recorded a daily loss of 4% for the second time.

According to SMM data, during the second half of the traditional "Golden March" peak consumption season (March 16 - March 20, 2026), the most-traded stainless steel futures contract (SS2605) trended lower from its highs under the dual pressure of macroeconomic headwinds and tepid actual demand. By the close on March 20, the contract retreated to 14,150 yuan/mt (approx. $2,051/mt), down 125 yuan/mt (approx. $18/mt) from last Friday's close of 14,275 yuan/mt (approx. $2,069/mt). The market's core feature this week was the marginal weakening of previous bullish factors: international macro signals tilted hawkish, raw material upward momentum stalled, and the substantive recovery of end-user demand during the peak season remained lackluster, prompting a rational pullback in futures prices after hitting resistance. Macro-Economy: Divergence Between Global Hawkishness and Chinese Resilience On the macroeconomic front, a significant divergence emerged between global and Chinese economic data and policy directions. Internationally, the U.S. Federal Reserve ushered in a "Super Central Bank Week," deciding to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%. Influenced by developments in the Middle East and sticky inflation, the Fed's latest dot plot—despite maintaining expectations for one rate cut this year and next—revealed a distinctly hawkish tilt. Market bets on rate cuts for the entire year were slashed to less than 11 basis points. The dashed hopes for loose dollar liquidity weighed on the overall valuation of the base metals sector. In China, the National Bureau of Statistics released January-February economic data showing a stable start to the year. Value-added industrial output grew by 6.3% year-on-year, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%, though real estate development investment still fell by 11.1% YoY. This structural divergence indicates a certain resilience in Chinese manufacturing, but the drag from the property sector continues to cap the upward elasticity of end-user consumption. Fundamentals: Destocking Continues, But Spot Market Feels Lukewarm Fundamentally, social inventories maintained a destocking trend, but the spot market still lacked vigor. The latest SMM data shows social inventories falling further to 979,300 mt this week, a decrease of 18,800 mt from last week's 998,100 mt. The continuous decline in inventories sent a positive industry signal, stabilizing market sentiment to some extent. However, the spot market still felt cold. Overall quotes remained stable, and end-user procurement strictly followed a just-in-time purchasing model, failing to exhibit the across-the-board boom expected during a peak season and leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Currently, although the destocking trend is preserved, constrained by high absolute inventory levels and the anticipated supply increment from March steel mill resumptions, traders are maintaining a steady pace of shipments without resorting to aggressive panic selling. Costs: High-Level Loosening Pauses Cost-Driven Logic The cost side also showed signs of loosening from its highs. As of March 20, high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) quotes ended their previous unilateral rally, edging down to 1,084 yuan/mtu (approx. $157/mtu), while high-carbon ferrochrome prices held steady at 8,650 yuan/50 mt (approx. $1,254/50 mt). With the pullback in futures prices and the sustained caution of steel mills regarding high-priced raw materials, NPI faced resistance in breaching the 1,100 yuan mark. The stabilization of raw material prices at high levels, coupled with slight price concessions, has temporarily alleviated the upward pressure on steel mills' cost centers, bringing the previously strong "cost-driven" logic to a temporary halt. Outlook and Strategy In conclusion, the stainless steel market this week entered a "deep water" zone where peak season expectations are repeatedly tested against reality. The Fed's hawkish stance pressured macro sentiment, while the "tepid" state of just-in-time end-user demand left fundamentals lacking intrinsic upward momentum. However, two consecutive weeks of steady destocking and stable spot quotes have effectively limited the depth of the market's correction. Looking ahead to next week, the market will continue to seek a balance between "high inventories + supply increments" and "continuous destocking + just-in-time demand floor." The key focus will be whether the destocking slope reverses due to concentrated arrivals at steel mills. In the short term, the most-traded SS contract is expected to shift into a broad range-bound trend.

SMM News: As of March 20, 2026, the market price for Praseodymium-Neodymium (Pr-Nd) metal in China stabilized temporarily at 890,000–910,000 RMB/ton. This article utilizes the SMM Pr-Nd Terminal Demand Calculation Model to dissect the demand logic for 2026 across three core sectors—New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles, and Wind Power—explaining the current supply-demand dilemma facing the NdFeB magnet and broader Pr-Nd markets.

[SMM Analysis: China’s Aluminum Foil Exports Edged Down 0.74% YoY in January-February, Geopolitical Conflicts Disrupted the Middle East Trade Chain] According to customs data, China’s total aluminum foil exports in January-February 2026 (tariff codes 76071110, 76071120, 76071190, 76071900, 76072000) reached 214,800 mt, down 0.74% YoY from 2025, of which exports were 121,100 mt in January, up 2% YoY, and 93,700 mt in February, down 4% YoY.

Nickel Ore " Sluggish RKAB Approvals Drive Potential for Ore Price Hikes" Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.329/dmt, an increase of 1.32%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $65.6–$74.6/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $24–$26/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a supply and demand perspective, Sulawesi is transitioning into the dry season; Konawe has reached optimal production levels, while Morowali is recovering from previous floods. However, Halmahera continues to be hampered by thunderstorms, resulting in high moisture content and dragging down mining efficiency. The market is facing a clear trend of declining ore grades. While some NPI smelters have begun accepting grades of 1.45% or lower, the supply of high-grade saprolite remains tight. As of mid-March, the ESDM has approved approximately 100 million tons of RKAB quotas. The remaining 160 to 170 million tons are expected to be processed by the end of March. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr (Lebaran) holidays (March 18–24), approval progress is expected to lag, exacerbating short-term supply tightness. Faced with resource uncertainty, some smelters have increased trade bonuses to secure raw materials. Transactions for low-grade saprolite are emerging at fixed prices lower than high-grade ores. Conversely, Limonite prices remain low due to a tailings dam landslide at a major MHP project, which has forced production lines to operate at low loads, hindering demand recovery. However, Limonite prices are expected to eventually follow Saprolite upward due to new project stockpiling and external island demand. Hydrometallurgical Ore Although the spot supply of hydrometallurgical ore is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project in a certain industrial park has forced related production lines to operate at low loads, leading to a temporary weakness in demand. However, given the concerns over RKAB approval uncertainty, the stockpiling needs of newly commissioned projects, and the growing demand from outer islands, hydrometallurgical ore prices are expected to follow the trend of pyrometallurgical ore and remain elevated. On March 3, 2026, Tri Winarno, Director General of Mineral and Coal, clarified that rumors of a "25%–30% universal increase in RKAB quotas" are false. Quota supplements will be based on individualized assessments of production capacity and compliance, with the approval process not expected to start until the second half of 2026. Market Outlook: Due to the overall delay in RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices in April are expected to remain resilient with a strong "easy to rise, hard to fall" trend. Nickel Pig Iron "NPI Prices See Periodic Retracement as Tug-of-War Intensifies Between Cost Support and Downstream Pressure​​​​​​​" The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price rose by RMB 0.3 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1090.2 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 0.65 per nickel unit to an average of USD 138.28 per nickel unit. This week, following consecutive price drops in stainless steel finished products and LME/SHFE nickel, the High-Grade NPI market experienced panic selling and low-price liquidation, entering a phase of periodic decline. From the supply side, With ore prices remaining elevated, smelter production costs continue to rise. However, triggered by the sharp decline in futures markets, some traders began offloading arbitrage stocks at low prices, leading to a general softening of upstream quotes.From the demand side, Weighed down by falling stainless steel prices and the influx of low-priced spot goods, most steel mills have lowered their bid intentions, exerting downward pressure on NPI prices. Overall, while cost support for smelters remains, downstream suppression is evident. The combination of futures-driven market sentiment and loosening upstream quotes has led to a periodic retracement in High-Grade NPI Overall outlook, market transactions will remain under pressure in the short term as the cost-tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continues. However, the downward room for NPI prices is expected to be limited.

At the start of the year, there was plenty of excitement around silver. The precious metal was soaring and reaching record highs along the way. However, it has declined from the highs it reached in January.

[Sinomine Resource Group Engages with the Zimbabwean Government to Restart Its Lithium Export Business] Sinomine Resource Group confirmed that, after this African country recently suspended shipments of lithium concentrates, the company had been actively engaging with Zimbabwean government authorities to restart its lithium export business. The Chinese miner disclosed this development on Friday in response to an investor inquiry via the Shenzhen Stock Exchange’s official interactive platform. These talks came at a critical time for both Sinomine Resource Group and Zimbabwe. Lithium remained a sought-after mineral because of its essential role in producing batteries used in EVs and renewable energy storage systems. Zimbabwe, which holds substantial lithium reserves, had continued tightening its regulatory framework to ensure more value addition remained in China, rather than allowing the export of raw ore or materials that had undergone only preliminary processing. Sinomine Resource Group said in a statement that it was currently working closely with Zimbabwean government authorities on a new export approval application. The company stressed that the dialogue remained ongoing and formed part of its broader efforts to align with the country’s latest policies and compliance requirements. Although there was no clear timetable yet for when exports would resume, the engagement sent a positive signal that efforts were being made to resolve the issue. Source: https://www.chemanalyst.com/ [Vulcan Energy Achieves Drilling and Permitting Milestones at Its Geothermal Lithium Project in Germany] The company had officially broken ground at the Trappelberg drilling site in the Rohrbach area near Landau. This was Vulcan’s second drilling site after Schleidberg, where the company had completed the drilling and testing of its first geothermal well. Preparatory work at Trappelberg had begun to support the start of drilling in H2 2026. At present, a deep groundwater monitoring well had been completed to ensure the protection of near-surface aquifers during construction and drilling operations. Schleidberg and Trappelberg were 2 of the 5 new drilling sites that Vulcan would develop in the region. Thorsten Weimann, Chief Development Officer and Managing Director of Vulcan Energie Ressourcen GmbH, said: “The groundbreaking ceremony at Trappelberg marks an important step forward in the further development of our Lionheart project. With this new drilling site, we are further developing the geothermal reservoir and laying the foundation for climate-neutral heating in the region and sustainable lithium production in Europe.” Source: https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/ [Core Lithium’s Finniss Project Secures a Strategic Financing Package of AUD 290 million] The fundamentals of global battery demand were reshaping investment strategies in the critical minerals sector, placing Australia’s lithium industry at a critical turning point. The combined effects of supply chain diversification needs, advances in energy storage technology, and geopolitical factors have created an environment in which strategic positioning determines the long-term value creation potential of mining. In addition, the restart of Core Lithium's Finniss project, backed by A$290 million, demonstrates how well-developed critical minerals strategies can unlock previously stalled projects through innovative financing structures. Against this backdrop, complex financing structures and operational optimization approaches have become key differentiators for projects seeking to capture the evolving market dynamics of the current lithium investment cycle. The sophisticated financing structure underpinning the restart of Core Lithium's Finniss project shows that contemporary mining finance has evolved beyond traditional debt-and-equity models into a strategic consortium model that disperses risk while maximizing operational synergies. Moreover, this financing approach reflects a broader trend across the mining sector. Source: https://discoveryalert.com.au/ [Copper, Cobalt, and Lithium Mines: US Critical Minerals Growth] In early 2026, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, together with senior US officials including Vice President JD Vance and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, received representatives from 54 countries and the European Commission at the Critical Minerals Ministerial meeting. The US announced new bilateral frameworks, financing initiatives exceeding $30 billion, and launched the Forum for Resource and Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE), aimed at building secure, diversified, and resilient critical minerals supply chains. Initiatives such as the Orion-Glencore memorandum of understanding and "Project Vault" indicate the US government's commitment to incentivizing private-sector investment and ensuring a stable and reliable supply of cobalt, copper, and other strategic materials, including those from the DRC. Source: https://miningdigital.com/ [Atlantic Lithium's Ewoyaa Project Financing Secures a Strategic Investment of $16.4 million] The global critical minerals landscape is undergoing a fundamental transformation, and institutional capital allocation strategies have moved beyond traditional mining investment models. Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and strategic investors now require more sophisticated financing structures to align long-term capital commitments with project de-risking milestones. This shift indicates the growing maturity of financing in the resources sector, which is moving away from speculative early-stage funding toward a more infrastructure-like investment approach that places greater emphasis on predictable returns rather than commodity price speculation. Contemporary lithium project development reflects this evolution, with financing solutions from diversified funding sources incorporating conditional capital structures, local ownership requirements, and ESG compliance frameworks. The combination of milestone-based warrant instruments, strategic partnership agreements, and domestic exchange listings has created an integrated financing ecosystem that balances capital efficiency with political and economic considerations. In addition, these innovations in the lithium industry are continuing to reshape the investment landscape. Source: https://discoveryalert.com.au/

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: The Center of Market Transactions Shifted Slightly Lower, and Downstream Wait-and-See Sentiment Increased] This week, the quotation range for mainstream quotations in China’s silicone DMC market was 13,800-14,300 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW. Overall market trading sentiment remained weak, with increased back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream. As raw material support still persisted, midstream players remained cautious in procurement sentiment, and wait-and-see sentiment in the market was strong.