SMM April 11 News: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 1.04%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.32%, SHFE lead fell 0.54%. SHFE zinc fell 0.59%. SHFE tin fell 0.09%. SHFE nickel fell 0.04%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.15%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum continuous contract rose 0.59%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.27%, stainless steel rose 2.01%, rebar fell 0.03%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.06%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 0.19%, coke fell 0.18%. Last Friday's overnight overseas market metals: LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 1.27%. LME aluminum rose 1.8%, LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc rose 0.3%. LME tin rose 0.89%. LME nickel rose 0.44%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 0.98%, posting a two-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 1.95% weekly gain; COMEX silver fell 0.54%, posting a three-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 4.25% weekly gain. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold fell 0.12%, posting a two-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 1.22% weekly gain; SHFE silver rose 1.47%, posting a three-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 3.65% weekly gain. Institutions including ANZ and Goldman Sachs stated that even as Middle East conflicts disrupted markets, gold is still likely to rebound in the long term. Analysts at these institutions believe that resilient central bank demand, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of US Fed interest rate cuts, and diversification away from US dollar-denominated assets all provide reasons for long-term bullishness. ANZ analysts Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes said prices are expected to eventually rebound, as the deteriorating macro combination of economic growth and inflation paves the way for central banks to resume cutting interest rates. ANZ maintained its outlook, forecasting gold prices to reach $5,800 by year-end. Analysts wrote that central bank gold purchases are expected to remain a key support pillar, with official purchases in 2026 estimated at around 850 mt. ANZ's bullish stance echoes similar forecasts from Goldman Sachs and RBC made in early March. Goldman Sachs maintained its $5,400 forecast, citing continued central bank gold purchases and expectations of a 50-basis-point US Fed interest rate cut this year. Goldman Sachs analysts previously stated that if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, gold still faces tactical downside risks in the short term. However, prolonged conflict could accelerate diversification away from traditional Western assets, supporting gold prices in the long term. (Jin10 Data) As of 8:31 AM on April 11, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang Chairs Symposium on Economic Situation with Experts and Entrepreneurs] Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, chaired a symposium on the economic situation with experts and entrepreneurs on the afternoon of April 10, hearing opinions and suggestions on the current economic situation and the next steps for economic work. Li Qiang emphasized the need to promote high-quality and efficient development of the service industry, catering to people's needs throughout their entire life cycle and enterprises' needs across the entire process of production and operation. He called for thorough implementation of the service industry capacity expansion and quality improvement initiative, coordinating development and regulation, and cultivating more "China Services" brands. At the same time, he stressed the need to deepen and expand "AI+," accelerate the digital and intelligent transformation of manufacturing, and support the overall upgrading of the industrial system through deep integration and mutual empowerment of advanced manufacturing and modern services. Greater efforts should be made to promote employment and income growth for urban and rural residents, tap into employment potential across various channels and sectors, vigorously cultivate new occupations and positions, promote shifts in employment concepts and enhancement of vocational skills, formulate and implement income growth plans for urban and rural residents, and strengthen the virtuous cycle of resident income growth, domestic demand expansion, and economic development. (Xinhua News Agency) [Preview: The State Council Information Office Will Hold a Press Conference on April 14 to Brief on Import and Export Performance in Q1 2026] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on April 14, 2026 (Tuesday), inviting Wang Jun, Deputy Commissioner of the General Administration of Customs, to brief on import and export performance in Q1 2026 and answer questions from reporters. [MIIT: Accelerate Building an Efficient and Unified AI Chip Computing Interconnection Ecosystem and Resolutely Eliminate "Involution-style" Competition in the PV Industry] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 2026 National High-Quality Development Conference for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry on April 10 in Wuhan, Hubei Province. The conference emphasized adhering to a value-oriented approach, promoting high-quality development of the advanced computing industry, accelerating the building of an efficient and unified AI chip computing interconnection ecosystem, and driving the industry chain toward higher-value segments. It also stressed adhering to a problem-oriented approach, carefully analyzing the current challenges facing the industry, proposing targeted development roadmaps, resolutely eliminating "involution-style" competition in the PV industry, and enhancing the resilience and security of key industry chains and supply chains. [CSRC: Launch More ChiNext-related ETFs and Options, and Introduce ChiNext Stock Index Futures in Due Course] A spokesperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission answered reporters' questions on the Opinions on Deepening ChiNext Reform to Better Serve the Development of New Quality Productive Forces, which mentioned enriching the product and service system. This includes optimizing the compilation of ChiNext-related indices, launching more ChiNext-related ETFs and options, introducing ChiNext stock index futures in due course, supporting fund advisory services in allocating ChiNext ETFs, incorporating ChiNext ETFs into the fund platform for transfer, better meeting the asset allocation and risk management needs of different investors, and enhancing investment convenience and attractiveness. [The Nationwide Mine Safety Risk Monitoring and Early Warning "Single Network" Has Been Basically Established] According to the Q1 regular press conference held by the National Mine Safety Administration, the nationwide mine safety risk monitoring and early warning "single network" has been basically established. Safety sensing data from all coal mines in normal production and construction, open-pit mines with high and steep slopes, tailings ponds, and 84% of non-coal underground mines in normal production and construction have been fully integrated into the national mine safety risk monitoring and early warning system. (Xinhua News Agency) [SSE: The Price Limit Ratio for Risk-Flagged Stocks on the Main Board Adjusted from 5% to 10%] The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) publicly solicited opinions on the revision of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Trading Rules. The revision mainly includes the following: First, the scope of securities eligible for after-hours fixed-price trading was expanded from STAR Market stocks to all A-shares and exchange-traded open-end funds. The adjustment helps meet investors' demand for trading at closing prices, extends trading hours for related products, and facilitates the entry of medium and long-term capital into the market. Second, the trading method during the closing session for funds was changed from continuous auction to closing call auction, with the closing price determined through call auction, consistent with SSE-listed stocks. Third, adaptive revisions were made in line with rule changes and business needs, adjusting the price limit ratio for risk-flagged stocks on the main board from 5% to 10%, refining rule language, and optimizing provisions on disciplinary actions. (Jin10 Data) [New Energy Power and Generation in Five Southern Provinces Hit Record Highs] According to China Southern Power Grid, new energy power and generation across the five provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan recently hit record highs. The maximum power generation capacity exceeded 100 million kW for the first time, with daily power generation reaching 1.4 billion kWh, accounting for 30% of total daily power generation. (Xinhua News Agency) US Dollar: Last Friday, the US dollar index extended its decline from the previous four trading days, falling another 0.11% to close at 98.69. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index posted a second consecutive weekly decline, down 1.49% for the week. US inflation surged sharply in March, with the war with Iran driving gasoline prices to their largest single-month gain since 1967, significantly intensifying overall price pressures. Data released Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% MoM, in line with market expectations, marking the largest single-month increase since June 2022; it rose 3.3% YoY, accelerating significantly from February's 2.4% and hitting the highest level since 2024. Gasoline prices posted their largest single-month gain on record since 1967, almost single-handedly driving the overall monthly increase , contributing nearly three-quarters of the monthly gain. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose only 0.2% MoM, below the market expectation of 0.3%, offering some relief to the market and boosting short-term interest rate cut bets. However, economists warned that the second-round effects of this energy shock had not yet been fully reflected in core inflation, and April data faced the risk of further increases. The US dollar fell after the data release. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April plunged from 53.3 in March to 47.6, hitting a record low. The current conditions index fell to 50.1, hitting a record low; the expectations index dropped to its weakest level since 1980; and the perception of current financial conditions tied the worst reading since 2009. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.8% over the next year. This figure surged 1 percentage point from March, marking the largest single-month increase since Trump announced sweeping tariff hikes a year ago. San Francisco Fed President Daly (2027 FOMC voter): Bringing inflation down to 2% is critically important, but doing so at the expense of employment would put households in a difficult position. US economic fundamentals are "solid," and the labour market is more stable. Risks to the US Fed's goals of full employment and inflation are balanced. It is necessary to watch how the conflict evolves and how enterprises pass through price increases. Policy is sufficiently restrictive to exert downward pressure on inflation, while also sufficiently balanced to support a stable labour market. Policy is in a good place, giving us more time to observe how the conflict resolves and how oil prices change. High CPI data would not surprise anyone. The real question is whether the ceasefire can hold — if it does, the high CPI will become "old news." (Wallstreetcn) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include: US March existing home sales annualized total, US March NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US March PPI YoY, US March PPI MoM, China March trade balance in US dollars, China March trade balance, France March CPI MoM final, Eurozone February industrial output MoM, Canada February wholesale sales MoM, US April NY Fed Manufacturing Index, US March import price index MoM, US April NAHB Housing Market Index, Australia March seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, China March total retail sales of consumer goods, China March industrial value added of enterprises above designated size, UK February three-month GDP MoM, UK February manufacturing output MoM, UK February seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK February industrial output MoM, Eurozone March CPI YoY final, Eurozone March CPI MoM final, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, US April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US March industrial output MoM, Eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account, and Eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance. In addition, other events to watch this week included: the State Council Information Office held a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, where Vice Minister of the General Administration of Customs Wang Jun briefed on Q1 2026 import and export performance and answered questions from reporters; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank held their Spring Meetings, running through April 17; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo visited the US from April 13 to 18 to attend the G20 and International Monetary and Financial Committee meetings; the IMF released its World Economic Outlook report; the US Fed Board of Governors hosted "Strengthening the US Economy Through Rural Investment: A Working Forum"; Bank of England Governor Bailey participated in a panel discussion at Columbia University; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participated in a panel discussion ahead of the Semafor 2026 World Economy Conference; US Fed Governor Barr delivered opening remarks at the working forum hosted by the US Fed Board of Governors; Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and US Fed Governor Barr participated in a fireside chat at the US Fed Board of Governors' working forum; European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech; the National Energy Administration released total electricity consumption data around the 15th of the month; US Fed Governor Bowman delivered a speech at the Institute of International Finance forum; the US Fed released the Beige Book on economic conditions; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech on global economic imbalances on the sidelines of the IMF meetings; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the performance of the national economy; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivered a speech; the Group of Twenty (G20) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech. (Jin10 Data) Crude oil: Last Friday, both oil futures fell overnight, with WTI down 2.29% and Brent down 1.73%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 14.26% for the week, while Brent fell 13.55%. The market focused on progress in US-Iran peace talks. , crude oil futures prices saw relatively small changes as traders were about to head into the weekend, while the US and Iran plan to hold talks that could determine whether a ceasefire in the Middle East can be sustained. Scott Shelton of TP ICAP said: "Traders have basically pulled out of the market. The $7 fluctuations like yesterday seem to have occurred with very few human traders involved. All they were doing was necessary hedging or cleaning up positions to further reduce risk exposure." He also said: "Maybe after this weekend, we'll have a clearer picture of whether the gap between Iran and the US is too wide to reach a deal." (Jinshi Data) Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) said on its social media on the 10th that only 4 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, including one Iranian tanker and one Russian tanker. (Xinhua) Baker Hughes data showed that US drilling companies cut oil and gas rigs for the third time in four weeks. A senior White House official said that skepticism pervaded the White House. The official said that Trump appeared to have acknowledged in recent conversations with advisors that the Strait of Hormuz was unlikely to fully reopen in the short term. However, at the same time, Trump posted on social media on Thursday that oil supply would be restored soon, but he did not elaborate further. The US Department of Energy (DOE) will lend 8.5 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to four companies. Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council: Gasoline prices are very high at present. I hope the surge in gasoline prices will not affect other areas. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC): As of the week ending April 7, speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures increased by 5,520 contracts to 109,227 contracts. (Jinshi Data) Recommended Reading:

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,937.5/mt. During the Asian session, it moved sideways around the intraday moving average. After entering the European session, it rose to a high of $1,945.5/mt, then fluctuated rangebound at high levels before pulling back to a low of $1,932/mt. Before the close, it edged up slightly to recover part of the losses, and finally closed at $1,935.5/mt, down $3/mt, or 0.15%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,605 yuan/mt. After dipping to 16,550 yuan/mt in early trading, it rebounded and consolidated near the intraday moving average, finally closing at 16,595 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous day, or 0.21%. On the macro front: The fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress closed in Beijing. The meeting voted to adopt the resolution on the government work report and reviewed and approved the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, charting the course for economic and social development over the next five years. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that although the February nonfarm payrolls report released last week came in weaker than expected, the mild pullback in initial jobless claims indicated that the scale of corporate layoffs remained limited, with employers still more inclined to retain workers. This eased market concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labour market. After the data release, major US stock indexes maintained their declines, while energy stocks were among the few sectors that rose due to a sharp increase in oil prices. Spot Fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. The center of SHFE lead moved further lower, and suppliers shipped in line with market conditions. In addition, with delivery approaching, some suppliers became less willing to sell, and quotations appeared somewhat firmer, with significantly fewer transactions at large discounts. Among them, ex-factory quotations in major primary lead producing areas were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Meanwhile, circulation of spot cargo in the secondary lead market was limited, and secondary refined lead was quoted ex-factory around parity against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased under long-term contracts, with limited spot order replenishment, while some purchased as needed. Trading in the spot market was subdued on both sides. Inventory: As of March 12, LME lead inventory fell by 375 mt to 284,500 mt; as of March 12, SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions continued its accumulation trend. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Approaching the weekend, operating rates at primary lead smelters in Hunan gradually resumed, though they had not yet returned to full production, and primary lead quotations in Hunan and Guangdong remained relatively firm. As the delivery date of the SHFE lead 2603 contract approached, suppliers were shifting inventory to delivery warehouses one after another, and social inventory of lead ingots continued to become more visible. With more imported lead arriving at ports and China refined lead supply gradually recovering, spot cargo in the spot market was relatively ample. Downstream enterprises had more procurement options, actively negotiated prices, and bought the dip. In the short term, the accumulation trend in social inventory of lead ingots is expected to be difficult to reverse, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

Affected by the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the COMEX gold price continued to break through upwards, and the secondary market prices of gold-related ETFs also rose for consecutive days. According to this year's data, the year-to-date gains of all gold-related ETFs in the entire market were above 27.9%. Among them, the six ETFs tracking the SSH Gold Stock Index showed strong growth, with year-to-date gains all above 41%. During this period, the scale of gold-related ETFs in the entire market gradually climbed, increasing from 72.608 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 163.120 billion yuan, representing a growth of 124.66%. Several fund companies believe that due to uncertainties in tariffs and geopolitics, risk-averse capital may flow into gold. Coupled with the impaired credit of the US dollar and US Treasuries, as well as the continuation of central bank gold purchases and the major cycle of interest rate cuts by the US Fed, the medium and long-term allocation value of gold continues to be favored. Gold ETFs Continue to be "Favored" with Market Size Exceeding 160 Billion Yuan On June 16, affected by the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, COMEX gold broke above 3450, and gold and gold stock indices continued to rise, with related ETFs once again gaining market attention. Data shows that since June 10, multiple ETFs tracking the SSH Gold Stock Index have risen by more than 7%, while several other gold ETFs and Shanghai Gold ETFs have risen by more than 2%. Looking at earlier data, as of June 13, the year-to-date gains of all gold-related ETFs in the entire market were above 27.9%. Among them, the six ETFs tracking the SSH Gold Stock Index showed strong growth. The Yongying CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF achieved a year-to-date gain of 43.46%, while the ChinaAMC CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF, ICBC CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF, Guotai CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF, Hua'an CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF, and Ping An CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF also rose by 43.27%, 42.79%, 41.79%, 41.79%, and 41.31%, respectively. Some ETF shares that experienced redemptions during the earlier period of gold price fluctuations and adjustments have also shown signs of "recovery". Since the Israel-Iran conflict, half of the gold-related ETF shares in the entire market have increased. Since the beginning of this year, the total shares of gold ETFs in the entire market have increased by 10.538 billion, and the scale has increased by 90.512 billion yuan, reaching a latest market size of 163.120 billion yuan, representing a growth of 124.66%. Among these, there are products whose scales have doubled. For example, the scale of the Yongying CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF increased from 1.651 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 4.755 billion yuan now, nearly tripling; the E Fund Gold ETF increased by 13.240 billion yuan from 13.248 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 26.488 billion yuan; the Guotai Gold ETF increased by 11.399 billion yuan from 7.142 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 18.541 billion yuan. During the same period, Bosera Gold ETF also increased from 15.004 billion yuan to 29.26 billion yuan. Products such as Huaxia Gold ETF, ICBC Gold ETF, Fullgoal Shanghai Gold ETF, and CCB Principal Shanghai Gold ETF have all shown multi-fold growth in scale since the beginning of this year. The momentum to increase gold allocation remains. Regarding the future allocation value of gold-related assets, multiple fund companies believe that under the current circumstances, market participants are more motivated to continuously increase their gold allocation. Data shows that central banks are continuing to increase their gold holdings. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) announced the official reserve asset data for May. As of the end of May 2025, China's gold reserves stood at 73.83 million ounces, up 60,000 ounces MoM, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth. "The potential geopolitical conflict risks in Iran and other countries, along with the escalation of related conflicts, may catalyze global attention to safe-haven assets, making the upward logic of gold prices more robust," pointed out Liu Tingyu, the fund manager of Yongying Gold Stock ETF. Hua'an Fund expressed that, against the backdrop of the U.S. debt crisis and the erosion of the U.S. dollar's credit, global central banks may continue to purchase gold and diversify their foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and geopolitics, safe-haven funds may flow into gold. Coupled with the erosion of the U.S. dollar's and U.S. debt's credit, as well as the continuation of central bank gold purchases and the broader cycle of the US Fed's interest rate cuts, the company continues to be optimistic about the medium and long-term allocation value of gold. Regarding tariffs, Liu Tingyu believes that the U.S. Federal Court of Appeals' extension of the deadline for the Trump administration's tariff enforcement issues implies that its tariff policies can still be implemented normally. Under this assumption, the contradictions within the Trump administration in the U.S. will significantly ease, and it is expected that Trump will have sufficient room to act hawkish in the coming period, further reducing the suppressive factors on gold. Additionally, gold is positively correlated with inflation in the long term, and the significant rise in oil prices will also affect gold prices through inflation. "Finally, we are more concerned about the main logic of gold—the weakening trend of the credit of the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt. The U.S. fiscal deficit in May was $316 billion, with the annual deficit up 14% YoY, further plunging into deficit. This year, the market's confidence in U.S. fiscal discipline has continued to wane, and the 'America COMPETES Act' may exacerbate the upward trend of the deficit. The avoidance of extreme risks in U.S. debt may become the main driving force for gold prices," Liu Tingyu said. Looking ahead, he believes that as the uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs and the rise in the deficit rate further erode the credit of the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt, the global trend of "de-dollarization" will intensify, and market participants will be more motivated to continuously increase their allocation of gold assets. It is worth mentioning that with the upward shift in the gold price center and the continuous expansion of gold mining companies' production, the performance of gold stocks is expected to continue to grow rapidly. Gold jewelers are also experiencing a turning point in performance and a trend toward product high-endization, which similarly offers good growth potential.

"Cut interest rates by 100 basis points!" Trump speaks out again On the evening of June 11, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" that the latest US CPI data showed positive results, and he called on the US Fed to cut interest rates by 1 percentage point (100 basis points). US Vice President Vance stated that the US Fed's refusal to cut interest rates was a dereliction of duty in monetary policy. Data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the full impact of Trump's across-the-board tariff hikes had not yet fully materialized, with US CPI inflation in May falling short of expectations across the board. The data indicated that the US unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for May was 2.4%, lower than the market expectation of 2.5%; the seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate for May was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0.2%. Excluding food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 2.8% YoY, remaining at the lowest level since March 2021, with an expected value of 2.9% and a previous value of 2.8%; the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate for the US in May was 0.1%, with an expected value of 0.3% and a previous value of 0.2%. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the continued weakness in energy and service prices offset the impact of price increases in other goods, while some key items originally expected to rise due to tariffs, particularly car and clothing prices, actually saw price decreases. The data showed that energy prices fell by 1% in the month, with gasoline prices dropping by 2.6%, and prices for new and used cars falling by 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. Food prices rose by 0.3%, and housing prices also increased by 0.3%, while clothing prices unexpectedly fell by 0.4%, indicating that the cost increases brought about by tariffs had not yet been passed on to consumers. Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Whisperer," commented that the decline in car and clothing prices led to a lower-than-expected reading for the core CPI in May. Some forecasters had believed that these two items would show the early impact of tariffs in May. After the data release, spot gold prices continued to rise, breaking through $3,360 per ounce. The three major US stock index futures surged briefly but then fell. By the close, the S&P 500 index closed down 16.57 points, or 0.27%, at 6,022.24 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.10 points, or 0.00%, at 42,865.77 points. The Nasdaq closed down 99.11 points, or 0.50%, at 19,615.88 points. The Nasdaq 100 index closed down 81.12 points, or 0.37%, at 21,860.80 points. Trump says "confidence is waning" in reaching a nuclear deal; international oil prices surge According to AFP, both the US and Iran made their latest statements on the US-Iran nuclear negotiations on June 11. US President Trump stated in an interview aired on the same day that his "confidence has waned" in reaching a nuclear deal with Iran. Meanwhile, Iran said on June 11 that if negotiations fail and a conflict breaks out between the US and Iran, it will target US military bases in the Middle East. Upon the news, the crude oil market reacted swiftly. WTI crude oil futures for July delivery closed up $3.17/bbl, a 4.88% increase, at $68.15/bbl. Brent crude oil futures for August delivery closed up $2.90/bbl, a 4.33% increase, at $69.77/bbl. What is the outlook for the cast aluminum alloy futures market? Yesterday, the most-traded AD2511 cast aluminum alloy futures contract closed at 19,400 yuan/mt, up 0.91%. Regarding the current operational logic of the cast aluminum alloy market, Xiao Yufei, head of the Nonferrous Metals Research Team at Nanhua Futures, believes that the supply surplus in the cast aluminum alloy industry will persist. The planned new capacity for domestic aluminum alloy ingots in 2024-2025 is 1.145 million mt/year. However, due to various constraints, the actual capacity that has come online is only 260,000 mt/year. It is expected that in 2025, the cast aluminum alloy industry will continue to see capacity growth but with slower commissioning. According to Xiao Yufei, the downstream consumption of cast aluminum alloy mainly flows into sectors such as transportation, machinery manufacturing, home appliances, and hardware. Among them, transportation vehicles, including cars, motorcycles, and EVs, account for over 70% of downstream demand. Therefore, the demand for cast aluminum alloy primarily depends on the performance of the automotive market. The automotive industry has generally performed well this year, with production and sales showing steady growth compared to the same period last year. However, considering that the H2 is approaching the off-season, the growth rate of cast aluminum alloy demand may slow down. In addition, aluminum scrap inventory is tight, and raw material procurement is difficult. The inability to restock in a timely manner has led to a continuous decline in the raw material inventory of secondary aluminum alloy enterprises. "Finished product inventories are at a relatively high level. Given the current loose supply situation, we believe that the inventory buildup trend of secondary aluminum alloy will persist for some time. Considering the high correlation between aluminum alloy prices and SHFE aluminum prices, spot and futures prices are more inclined towards a backwardation structure," Xiao Yufei said. Fu Ying, a nonferrous metals analyst at the Zheshang Futures Research Center, believes that the current cast aluminum alloy market is in a phase of weak supply and demand. The automotive market, a major end-use application for cast aluminum alloy, is currently in an off-season for production. Under the "produce based on sales" model of alloy enterprises, their operating rates will also decline accordingly. Meanwhile, the trend of weakening demand will become more pronounced, with both social inventory and raw material inventory showing continuous accumulation. Therefore, the spot price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate around production costs. The first listed futures contract for cast aluminum alloy was AD2511, with a delivery month of November. According to Chen Xinyi, the head of the Non-Ferrous Metals and New Energy Team at Wuchan Zhongda Futures, the aluminum scrap recycling system is relatively "informal," which leads to a decrease in aluminum scrap recycling volume during holidays. Typically, aluminum scrap supply is relatively tight in Q4, and its prices hold up well compared to primary aluminum. From a demand perspective, ADC12 demand exhibits significant seasonal characteristics, with peak seasons generally occurring from September to January of the following year, and November being a peak consumption month. Therefore, the inter-month price spreads for the AD2511, AD2512, and AD2601 contracts are currently in a contango state. "Before the listing of cast aluminum alloy futures, spot market reference prices were mostly anchored to the Baotai price," Chen Xinyi said. Currently, the Baotai quote for ADC12 is 19,400 yuan/mt. Considering that some registered brands are priced at a discount to the Baotai price and the slim profit margins of alloy enterprises, companies have little incentive to price and sell futures contracts in advance. Currently, the downside room for aluminum scrap prices, which are closely linked to aluminum prices, is limited. This keeps ADC12 prices relatively strong in the short term, with the main operating range being 19,000-19,600 yuan/mt. In practice, according to Chen Xinyi, the ADC12-A00 price spread exhibits significant seasonal characteristics, weakening in Q2 and strengthening in Q3. Affected by policies, despite a capacity utilisation rate as high as 97%, electrolytic aluminum continues to destock, while the supply and demand of secondary aluminum show a surplus, with the current capacity utilisation rate being less than 50%. When the ADC12-A00 price spread is at historically high levels, the substitution effect of primary aluminum for aluminum scrap gradually becomes apparent. Some companies may consider adjusting their raw material ratios, and increased demand for electrolytic aluminum supports price increases, thereby driving the ADC12-A00 price spread to revert. In the short term, Fu Ying stated that cast aluminum alloy futures prices are expected to mainly follow aluminum price fluctuations, with cost support existing below. On the one hand, the most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract, AD2511, is still far from its delivery date, and the price trend of cast aluminum alloy is consistent with that of aluminum. The current low inventory and continuous destocking of electrolytic aluminum provide support for aluminum prices. On the other hand, the supply and demand of aluminum scrap are relatively tight, with aluminum scrap costs accounting for nearly 90% of the cost of cast aluminum alloy. The firmness of aluminum scrap prices supports ADC12 prices. However, affected by the traditional off-season, the upside room for cast aluminum alloy prices is also limited. Additionally, under the off-season consumption, the demand for selling hedging by cast aluminum alloy producers is high, which will suppress futures prices. Regarding the key points to be monitored subsequently, Fu Ying believes they mainly include changes in aluminum scrap supply, downstream demand, and the changes and impacts of spot pricing models after the listing of futures. Aluminum scrap supply determines the cost trend of cast aluminum alloy, while downstream demand affects the price spread fluctuations between cast aluminum alloy and primary aluminum. Stronger demand will drive the price spread between the two to revert. Currently, the spot price of cast aluminum alloy mainly refers to the quotes on information websites and the "enterprise quotes + premiums and discounts" model, lacking a relatively open and transparent market mechanism. After the listing of cast aluminum alloy futures, the number of market participants will gradually increase, which will help optimize the spot pricing model.

On Wednesday local time, data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the full impact of Trump's across-the-board tariff hikes had yet to be fully realized, with US CPI inflation in May falling short of expectations across the board. Following the data release, spot gold continued to rally, breaking through the $3,360/ounce mark, while the three major US stock index futures surged in the short term. Specific data revealed that the US unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for May was recorded at 2.4%, lower than the market expectation of 2.5%; the seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate for May was recorded at 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0.2%. Excluding food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 2.8% YoY, remaining at the lowest level since March 2021, with an expected value of 2.9% and a previous value of 2.8%; the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate for the US in May was recorded at 0.1%, with an expected value of 0.3% and a previous value of 0.2%. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics pointed out that persistent weakness in energy and service prices offset the impact of price increases in other goods, while some key items originally expected to rise due to tariffs, particularly car and clothing prices, actually saw price reductions. Data showed that energy prices fell 1% in the month, with gasoline prices dropping 2.6%, and prices for new and used cars falling 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. Food prices rose 0.3%, and housing prices also increased by 0.3%, while clothing prices unexpectedly declined by 0.4%, indicating that the cost increases from tariffs had not yet been passed on to consumers. Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Whisperer," commented that the decline in car and clothing prices contributed to the core CPI reading in May falling short of expectations. Some forecasters had believed these two categories would show the early impact of tariffs in May. Economists expect that, as most retailers are still selling goods stockpiled before the tariffs took effect, the full impact of President Trump's across-the-board tariff hikes on inflation has yet to be fully realized. Inflation is expected to accelerate in the second half of this year, with Walmart indicating last month that it would begin raising prices in late May and June. Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, stated, "Today's below-expectation inflation data is reassuring—but only to a certain extent. It's premature to conclude that price shocks won't materialize." Shah believes that the impact of tariffs may not be reflected in inflation data until late summer, due to inherent delays in economic data, ongoing changes in tariff policies, merchants stockpiling goods in advance and offering discounts, and some costs being absorbed by retailers and manufacturers themselves. Market pricing suggests that the US Fed may not consider further interest rate cuts before September, as policymakers are assessing the impact of tariffs on inflation. Trump has been urging the US Fed to lower interest rates amid cooling inflation and a slowing labour market. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of an interest rate cut by the US Fed in June is almost zero, while the likelihood of a cut in September is close to 70%. Goldman Sachs analysts stated that mild inflation data in May suggests that tariffs are not having a significant impact at present, as companies have been using existing inventory or slowly adjusting prices due to uncertain demand. "Although we may see some price increases for certain goods in the future, service prices are expected to remain stable, suggesting that any rise in inflation is likely to be temporary." Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, said that the current CPI data is much milder than expected. While some imported food prices have risen significantly, such as bananas by 3.3% and toys by 2.2%, egg prices have fallen by 2.7%. Greater stability in trade policies would greatly help avoid runaway inflation. This also reaffirms why the US Fed may shift its risk focus from inflation threats to threats to economic growth.

The total trading volume of Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect today was RMB 143.208 billion, with China Merchants Bank and CATL ranking first in terms of individual stock trading volume on the Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect, respectively. In terms of the most-traded contract's open interest by sector, the non-bank financial sector saw the highest net inflow of open interest. In terms of ETF trading volume, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Innovative Drug ETF (513120) ranked first. In terms of the most-traded futures contracts' open interest, the number of short positions reduced in the IC contract exceeded that of long positions. On the Dragon Tiger List, Anglikang received RMB 235 million in purchases from institutions; Limin Chemical received RMB 105 million in purchases from institutions; Royal Silver was sold off by institutions for RMB 115 million; China Superconductor was sold off by institutions for over RMB 60 million; Junyao Health was sold off by institutions for over RMB 60 million; Chutianlong received over RMB 90 million in purchases from the Yichang Yanjiang Avenue Business Department of Guotai Haitong Securities; Nanhua Futures was sold off by two quantitative trading seats. I. Top 10 Stocks by Trading Volume on Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect Today, the total trading volume on the Shanghai Stock Connect was RMB 68.229 billion, while that on the Shenzhen Stock Connect was RMB 74.979 billion. Among the top 10 stocks by trading volume on the Shanghai Stock Connect, China Merchants Bank ranked first; Kweichow Moutai and JAC ranked second and third, respectively. Among the top 10 stocks by trading volume on the Shenzhen Stock Connect, CATL ranked first; BYD and East Money ranked second and third, respectively. II. Main Large-Order Open Interest by Sector and Individual Stocks In terms of sector performance, rare earth permanent magnets, gaming, auto parts, and securities sectors led the gains, while controlled nuclear fusion, other power supply equipment, biological vaccines, and communication services sectors led the losses. In terms of the most-traded sector's open interest monitoring data, the non-bank financial sector saw the highest net inflow of open interest. In terms of sector open interest outflows, the pharmaceutical sector saw the highest net outflow of open interest. In terms of the most-traded individual stock's open interest monitoring data, the sectors of the top 10 stocks with net inflows of open interest were relatively scattered, with N-Insta360 ranking first in terms of net inflows. The sectors of the top 10 stocks with net outflows of open interest were relatively scattered, with Lianhe Tech ranking first in terms of net outflows. III. ETF Trading Volume Among the top 10 ETFs by trading volume, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Innovative Drug ETF (513120) ranked first, while the CSI 300 ETF (510300) ranked second. Among the top 10 ETFs by MoM growth in trading volume, the Germany ETF (159561) ranked first with an 110% MoM increase in trading volume from yesterday; two rare earth ETFs ranked second and third, with the Rare Earth ETF Fund (516150) ranking second with a 93% MoM increase in trading volume. IV. Most-Traded Futures Contracts' Open Interest Among the most-traded contracts of the four major stock index futures, both longs and shorts reduced their positions in the IH, IC, and IM contracts, with longs reducing more positions in the IH and IM contracts and shorts reducing slightly more positions in the IC contract; both longs and shorts increased their positions in the IF contract, with shorts increasing more positions. V. Dragon Tiger List 1. Institutions Today, the activity level of institutions on the Dragon Tiger List was moderate. On the buying side, Angelic, a concept stock of innovative drugs, was bought by institutions for 235 million yuan; Limin Chemical, a pesticide stock, was bought by institutions for 105 million yuan. On the selling side, Yuyin, a concept stock of stablecoins, was sold by institutions for 115 million yuan; Zhongchao Holding, a nuclear power stock, was sold by institutions for over 60 million yuan; Junyao Health, a dairy stock, was sold by institutions for over 60 million yuan. 2. Retail Investors The activity level of first-tier retail investors declined significantly. Baili Electric, a concept stock of controllable nuclear fusion, was sold by three first-tier retail investor seats for a total of over 200 million yuan, and the stock was also sold by a seat of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect for over 100 million yuan; Chutian Dragon, a concept stock of stablecoins, was bought by the Yichang Yanjiang Avenue Business Department of Guotai Haitong Securities for over 90 million yuan. The activity level of quantitative funds was moderate. Baili Electric was sold by two quantitative seats; Nanhua Futures was sold by two quantitative seats.

Macro News 1. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that He Lifeng, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will visit the UK from June 8 to 13 at the invitation of the UK government. During the visit, he will hold the first meeting of the China-US Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism with the US side. 2. In response to a reporter's question about China's export control measures on medium-heavy rare earth, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce stated that rare earth-related items have both military and civilian applications, and implementing export controls on them is in line with international common practices. With the development of industries such as robotics and NEVs, the demand for medium-heavy rare earth in civilian applications is growing across countries. As a responsible major country, China fully considers the reasonable demands and concerns of various countries in civilian applications and reviews export license applications for rare earth-related items in accordance with laws and regulations. It has approved a certain number of compliant applications in accordance with the law and will continue to strengthen the review of compliant applications. China is willing to further strengthen communication and dialogue on export controls with relevant countries to facilitate compliant trade. 3. According to PBOC data, China's gold reserves stood at 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 mt) at the end of May, up 60,000 ounces (approximately 1.86 mt) MoM, marking the seventh consecutive month of gold purchases. 4. Data shows that the PBOC conducted reverse repo operations totaling 930.9 billion yuan in the open market last week, while reverse repos totaling 1,602.6 billion yuan matured in the open market last week. Consequently, the PBOC achieved a net withdrawal of 671.7 billion yuan from the open market on a full-caliber basis last week. This week, reverse repos totaling 930.9 billion yuan will mature in the PBOC's open market operations. 5. According to statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as of the end of May 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,285.3 billion, up $3.6 billion from the end of April, representing an increase of 0.11%. 6. In response to a reporter's question about Minister Wang Wentao's talks with European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis, responsible for Trade and Economic Security, during his visit to France, the Ministry of Commerce stated that Minister Wang Wentao and Executive Vice President Dombrovskis held professional and in-depth discussions on the EV case, making significant progress towards a proper resolution of the case. Currently, price commitment negotiations between China and the EU on the EV case have entered the final stage, but efforts from both sides are still needed. Industry News 1. On June 6, Li Lecheng, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, chaired a meeting of the Ministry's Leading Group for the Integration of Informatization and Industrialization. The meeting called for the implementation of the "AI + Manufacturing" initiative to accelerate the intelligent upgrading of key industries and create an "upgraded version" of smart manufacturing. By focusing on industrial intelligence, the meeting aimed to deepen the industrial application of AI and drive the innovation and iteration of industrial datasets and large industrial models. 2. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) issued the "Administrative Measures for the Development Planning of Central State-owned Enterprises", placing greater emphasis on industrial orientation. A three-tier planning system has been established, comprising the "Overall Development Plan for Central State-owned Enterprises + Key Task Planning + Enterprise Planning". Industrial optimization and adjustment have been identified as the key focus of this three-tier planning, with the aim of channeling state capital into critical industries and key sectors vital to national security and the lifeline of the national economy, as well as into public services, emergency response capabilities, and public welfare sectors that are crucial to the national economy and people's livelihoods, and further into forward-looking and strategic emerging industries. 3. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) held a symposium on high dividends, significant returns, and enhancing the value of publicly listed firms. Relevant officials from the SSE stated that in the future, the SSE will encourage publicly listed firms to further increase dividend payouts and frequency, and effectively utilize market value management tools such as share buybacks, mergers and acquisitions, and investor communications to continuously enhance the investment value of companies. 4. Last Saturday, a Boeing 737 MAX aircraft took off from Seattle, US, and landed in Hawaii before continuing its journey to China. This aircraft, originally a new plane awaiting delivery at Boeing's Zhoushan factory, was returned to the US in April. This marks the first time since April that Boeing has resumed aircraft deliveries to China. 5. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) are actively promoting the interconnection of the two regions' fast payment systems. The project is progressing smoothly, with some services expected to be launched by mid-year. Details will be announced in due course. 6. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), wrote that with the strengthening of national sales promotion subsidies for scrappage and renewal, the market has rebounded, significantly boosting the automotive market. Consequently, the pressure from price wars has relatively eased from January to mid-May. Due to competitive differentiation, the promotional efforts for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in May have rebounded significantly. In May 2025, the promotional discounts for NEVs dropped to a mid-to-high level of 11%, representing an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year and a 1.6 percentage point increase MoM. 7. Hong Kong SAR Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu attended and delivered a speech at the opening ceremony of the 16th Cross-Strait and Hong Kong-Macao Economic and Trade Cooperation Symposium hosted by the Chinese Manufacturers' Association of Hong Kong last Saturday. Lee stated that Hong Kong is actively developing the artificial intelligence (AI) industry and will establish a "Technology and Innovation Industry Guidance Fund" with a scale of HK$10 billion to strengthen the guidance of market funds and promote the development of strategic emerging and future industries such as AI and robotics. 8. Amidst the 618 shopping festival promotions, national subsidy policies for home appliances in multiple regions, including Jiangsu, Chongqing, Hubei, and Guangdong, have been suspended or adjusted to a limited supply model. A reporter from Cailian Press learned through on-site visits that in Jiangsu Province, consumers wishing to use national subsidies offline need to queue up at merchants to "snatch" quotas, with digital products being in high demand and quotas hard to come by. Similarly, consumers in Guangdong Province also need to compete for coupons for redemption. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, sales from trade-in policies have exceeded 1 trillion yuan. Industry analysts believe that the main reason for the current policy adjustment is the rapid depletion of national subsidy funds, which is a temporary phenomenon, and a new round of subsidies may be reintroduced. 9. Recently, a team led by professors Peng Jun and Zhang Xiaohong from Soochow University, in collaboration with the University of New South Wales in Australia and the White Horse Lake Laboratory in Zhejiang Province, achieved a significant breakthrough in the field of single-junction perovskite solar cells. The certified steady-state efficiency of their 0.1 cm² single-junction perovskite cell reached 27.3%, while that of the 1 cm² single-junction perovskite cell reached 26.9%, both setting new world records for their respective sizes. Corporate News 1. LONGi Green Energy announced that shareholder HHLR plans to reduce its stake by no more than 0.5% of the company's shares. 2. Desay SV announced that shareholders Huichuangtou and Shenhua Investment plan to reduce their stakes by 3% and 1.45% of the company's shares, respectively. 3. Royo announced that Langzi plans to reduce its stake by no more than 3% of the company's shares. 4. LB Group announced that it plans to repurchase between 500 million and 1 billion yuan worth of the company's shares. 5. Roborock announced that it plans to issue H shares and list them on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. 6. *ST Haiyue announced that it has been investigated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected violations of information disclosure regulations. On the same day, the company also announced that it has received a decision to delist its shares, with the expected last trading date being July 4. 7. Vanke A announced that Shenzhen Metro Group plans to provide the company with a loan of no more than 3 billion yuan. 8. Sinowealth Electronics announced that its controlling shareholder is planning changes to the company's control, and trading in its shares has been suspended. 9. BlueFocus announced that it is planning to issue H shares and list them on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. 10. Honghui Fruits & Vegetables announced that its controlling shareholder is planning changes to the company's control, and trading in its shares has been suspended. 11. Canadian Solar announced that shareholder Yuanhe Chongyuan plans to reduce its stake by no more than 3% of the company's shares. 12. Jiechuang Intelligence announced that it plans to purchase servers worth no more than 600 million yuan for its intelligent computing cloud services. Global Markets 1. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher collectively last Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.05% and gaining 1.17% for the week; the Nasdaq Composite rising 1.2% and gaining 2.18% for the week; and the S&P 500 rising 1.03% and gaining 1.5% for the week. Popular tech stocks generally rose, with Google and Tesla gaining over 3%, Amazon rising over 2%, and Nvidia, Apple, and Meta each rising over 1%, while Broadcom fell 5%. Cryptocurrency and automobile manufacturing sectors led the gains. 2. Starting on the morning of the 6th, federal agencies such as the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deployed a large number of law enforcement officers to carry out operations targeting illegal immigrants in multiple locations across Los Angeles County, California, leading to numerous street confrontations, chaos, and clashes. On the 7th local time, law enforcement officers clashed with local residents for the second consecutive day. The most intense conflict on the 7th occurred in Paramount, approximately 30 kilometers south of downtown Los Angeles, an area predominantly inhabited by Latino immigrants. Hundreds of heavily armed federal law enforcement officers confronted and clashed with several hundred protesters. 3. According to a June 7 report by The Washington Post, the US State Department notified embassies and consulates worldwide on June 6 to resume visa processing for international students planning to study at Harvard University. This decision overturned the visa rejection order issued just the day before. Currently, no relevant information has been published on the US State Department's official website. Investment Opportunities Reference 1. Intelligent driving has become a focal point of competition among major automakers, with the demand for such core hardware continuously rising. Samsung has formed partnerships with Infineon and NXP to jointly develop next-generation automotive chip solutions. This collaboration will be based on Samsung's 5-nanometer process, with a focus on optimizing the co-design of memory and processors, and aims to "enhance chip security performance and real-time processing capabilities." Samsung is reportedly developing highly integrated SoC solutions in this field to achieve better energy efficiency ratios. Everbright Securities pointed out that in the era of domain controllers, heterogeneous SoC chips with high computing power, high performance, and high integration will become the core components of intelligent driving. In addition to domain controllers, intelligent driving SoC chips are also core components of front-view integrated machines. By 2025, the penetration rate of urban NOA in car models priced below RMB 150,000 will rapidly increase, driving up the demand for medium-to-high computing power chips. Additionally, from a technological perspective of intelligent driving, by 2025, new end-to-end technologies will focus on VLA and world models, with "parking lot to parking lot" intelligent driving functions becoming a focal point of competition among major automakers, posing higher requirements for chip computing power, solution provider capabilities, and OEM self-research capabilities. Against the backdrop of automotive OEMs such as BYD and Geely implementing "intelligent driving equity" strategies, third-party SoC producers are expected to benefit first, with the trend of "chip pre-embedding" bringing high growth certainty to the industry. 2. Another low-orbit satellite successfully launched, with institutions stating that China's commercial aerospace industry has completed the "from 0 to 1" phase. Recently, China successfully launched the Internet of Satellites Low-Orbit Group 04 satellites into their predetermined orbits using a Long March 6A carrier rocket at the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center, with the launch mission achieving complete success. Western Securities stated that the progress of the satellite Internet industry is accelerating, with potential for valuation expansion. The satellite Internet industry is a core component of new quality productive forces. From a policy perspective, policies and regulations in areas such as terminal-to-satellite direct connectivity, satellite network coordination, and access for private satellite enterprises have been successively introduced in the past two years, with a relatively complete top-level policy framework for the satellite industry now in place. From the product and user perspectives, the number of Tiantong package subscribers has exceeded 2 million, with over 16 million terminal devices in use. Moreover, Huawei's public testing of satellite internet is expected to commence in the second half of 2025 (H2), with the user base for satellite internet access in China gradually being established. Fu Chenshuo from CITIC Securities stated that with breakthroughs achieved in satellite manufacturing, rocket launches, ground equipment, and operational services, China's commercial aerospace industry has completed the "0 to 1" phase and is on the verge of entering a rapid development stage. 3. Indonesia Considering Procurement of China's J-10 Fighter Jets: Institutions Say China's Military Trade Ushers in a New Cycle According to media reports, on June 5 local time, the Indonesian military announced that the Indonesian government is conducting a feasibility assessment on the procurement of China-made J-10 fighter jets. Taufanto, the Deputy Minister of Defense of Indonesia, stated that this move aims to enhance the modern combat capabilities of the Indonesian Air Force while also considering cost-effectiveness within the national defense budget. Taufanto pointed out that the performance of China's J-10 fighter jets in the India-Pakistan conflict is one of the key factors influencing Indonesia's consideration of this model. Additionally, compared to similar Western fighter jets, the J-10 is more competitively priced and its technical configuration meets Indonesia's demand for "cost-effective advanced equipment." Taufanto revealed that Indonesia is currently focusing on reviewing the compatibility of the J-10 with its existing national defense system, after-sales maintenance support, and specific procurement terms. The procurement scope may not be limited to fighter jets but could also include China-made warships, frigates, and other weaponry. Shenwan Hongyuan stated that amid geopolitical conflicts, the attention on China's military trade will continue to rise. The intense conflict between India and Pakistan has drawn significant attention to China's military-industrial foreign trade products, with their maturity expected to gain high international recognition, thereby continuously promoting the opening up of the international market for China's military trade products and ushering in a new cycle for China's military trade, thus expanding the market space and valuation of the entire industry. 4. Volcano Engine's Motive Power Conference to Be Held, ByteDance Recently Launches Multiple AI Products The 2025 Volcano Engine Motive Power Conference - Spring will be held from June 11 to 12, focusing on cutting-edge fields such as large models and AI cloud-native technologies. Topics include agent development, multimodal understanding, deep thinking, AI cloud-native, and more. Recently, there have been continuous advancements in ByteDance's AI sector. On May 20, Volcano Engine launched the Doubao Voice Podcast Model, enabling the instant conversion of text content into a two-person dialogue-style podcast without complex editing, allowing hot topics to be instantly transformed into engaging podcasts. On the same day, Volcano Engine unveiled the Large Model Ecosystem Square - MCPServers. On May 8, Volcano Engine released the DiskANNRaBitQ vector algorithm engine, which, through the deep integration of the DiskANN algorithm and the ExtendedRaBitQ vector quantization technology, achieves an 115% improvement in query performance compared to the HNSW algorithm in high-performance vector retrieval scenarios, reduces memory resource consumption by 90%, and lowers the overall cost of the user's vector database by 75%, accelerating the application of AI technology across various industries. On May 7, Volcengine launched China's first intelligent database assistant, DBCopilot, which covers three core scenarios of data storage, management, and acquisition through AI technology. Guotai Haitong Securities stated that ByteDance has become a leading force in China's AI development, with its models and applications advancing in tandem, continuously bringing fresh blood to the development of China's AI ecosystem, and also reflecting the current vibrant state of AI development in China.

As the US-China trade tensions eased in May, Asian stock markets attracted significant inflows of foreign capital during the month. According to LSEG data, foreign investors collectively purchased approximately $10.65 billion worth of stocks in Asia in May, marking the largest monthly net purchase since February 2024. The data showed that stock markets in India, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Taiwan, China, all recorded capital inflows. Among them, Taiwan, China's stock market saw an inflow of $7.28 billion in overseas funds in May, setting a record for the largest monthly net purchase since November 2023. India recorded an inflow of $2.34 billion, marking the largest monthly net purchase since September 2024. In addition, stock markets in South Korea, Indonesia, and the Philippines also experienced net inflows of foreign capital, amounting to $885 million, $338 million, and $290 million, respectively, while the Thai stock market faced a net sell-off of $491 million. Optimistic Outlook Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs stated that it has raised its earnings growth forecast for the MSCI Asia Pacific (ex-Japan) index to 9% for both 2025 and 2026, citing stronger macroeconomic growth in China and the US, which is driving growth in the Asia-Pacific region. On the other hand, global investors' hesitation towards US assets is also a factor contributing to the rise in Asian markets. Due to the US government's unresolved debt issues, many investors previously sought safer havens in Europe. However, data shows that Italy, France, and the UK are also facing debt challenges, making the Asian market relatively more attractive. This also means that Asian countries have greater policy space to implement more fiscal stimulus measures to boost consumption and financial markets. In addition, the rapid growth of emerging tech companies in Asia also provides investment options for investors seeking high growth. Low valuations are also a major driving factor. As of May 23, the 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the STOXX50, a major European stock index, was 15.4 times, significantly lower than the 21.0 times of the S&P 500 index. The P/E ratio of the MSCI Asia (ex-Japan) index, a major emerging Asian stock index, was even lower, at just 13.4 times. However, Invesco warned that in H2 2025, Asian markets will continue to be affected by macroeconomic risks, which may outweigh the positive impact of domestic drivers in the short term. Nevertheless, another positive factor is the continued weakness of the US dollar. The appreciation of Asian currencies will continue to attract foreign capital inflows and support domestic consumption.

On Wednesday, the South Korean stock market surged, leading gains in the Asia-Pacific stock markets . This followed the victory of Lee Jae-myung, leader of South Korea's Democratic Party, in the presidential election, ending months of leadership vacuum in the country and eliminating political uncertainty in South Korea . As of now, South Korea's benchmark stock index, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), has risen nearly 2.5% to 2,765.97 points, more than 20% above the recent low of 2,293.7 points set in April. This means the index has entered a technical bull market . Since the beginning of this year, the index has risen more than 15% in total . In addition, the South Korean won also strengthened today. As of now, the South Korean won has appreciated about 0.5% against the US dollar . However, South Korean government bonds have underperformed, with the 10-year bond yield rising sharply, reflecting market concerns that the new government may implement expansionary fiscal policies, leading to an increase in bond supply . As South Korea's election authority confirmed Lee Jae-myung's election, he has officially commenced his presidential term. This has eliminated one of the biggest obstacles affecting the local market—political uncertainty . In April this year, South Korea's Constitutional Court ruled to uphold the impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol, who was subsequently removed from the presidency. According to South Korea's Constitution, after the president is absent due to impeachment or other reasons, the country must hold an election to select the next president within 60 days. Therefore, the election originally scheduled for 2027 was brought forward to June 3 this year . Currently, market focus has shifted to Lee Jae-myung's policies aimed at boosting economic growth , with a focus on increasing government spending, improving corporate governance, strengthening labor protections, and completing ongoing tariff and exchange rate negotiations with the Trump administration . South Korea's economy contracted in the first quarter of this year, before US President Trump announced a comprehensive tariff increase in early April, highlighting the weakness of the South Korean economy . Shawn Oh, a stock trader at NH Investment & Securities, said, "Today's (market) focus will be on the new President Lee Jae-myung." He added that the market may react to Lee's commitment to improving corporate governance . Despite facing political uncertainty and economic downturn, the South Korean stock market and the won have shown resilience this year, outperforming most Asian peers. In April this year, after Yoon Suk Yeol stepped down, the won gained support and became one of the best-performing currencies in Asia . It is worth noting that during his campaign, Lee Jae-myung stated that his target for the KOSPI index was 5,000 points , but he did not specify a timetable. This goal underscores his emphasis on the stock market, and he has also pledged to boost the valuation of local stocks and end the "Korea Discount" phenomenon.

The 2025 SMM (3rd) Wire and Cable Industry Development Conference & Wire and Cable Industry Exhibition concluded successfully! SMM, May 26: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally declined, with only SHFE copper and SHFE lead rising together. SHFE copper rose by 0.57%, and SHFE lead rose by 0.12%. SHFE zinc fell by 0.52%, while the rest of the metals dropped slightly. The main alumina contract fell by 3.77%, recording three consecutive days of decline. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract fell by 2.31%, reaching a new low of 59,920 yuan/mt during the session, the lowest since its futures listing. The main polysilicon contract fell by 3.92%. The main silicon metal contract fell by 3.67%, hitting a record low of 7,605 yuan/mt during the session since its listing. The main European container shipping contract fell by 5.81%. The ferrous metals series declined collectively. Iron ore and HRC both fell by over 2%, with iron ore dropping by 2.21% and HRC by 2.03%, while rebar fell by 1.67%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal fell by 1.96%, and coke fell by 1.72%. In the overseas metal market, the LME metal market was closed for the day due to the Spring Bank Holiday. In precious metals, as of 15:03, COMEX gold fell by 0.78%, while COMEX silver rose by 0.26%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.29%, and SHFE silver rose by 0.49%. Market conditions as of 15:03 today 》Click to view the SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Developments: [8 Departments: Cultivate Around 100 National Leading Enterprises in Digital and Intelligent Supply Chains by 2030] Eight departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the State Taxation Administration, and the National Data Administration, recently jointly issued the "Special Action Plan for Accelerating the Development of Digital and Intelligent Supply Chains." The "Action Plan" makes forward-looking, comprehensive, and systematic arrangements for the development of digital and intelligent supply chains. It proposes the use of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and blockchain to promote the digital, intelligent, and visual transformation of supply chains with a "one-chain-one-policy" approach. By 2030, a replicable and scalable model for the construction and development of digital and intelligent supply chains will be formed. A deeply embedded, smart, efficient, and autonomous and controllable digital and intelligent supply chain system will be basically established in important industries and key areas. Around 100 national leading enterprises in digital and intelligent supply chains will be cultivated, further enhancing the resilience and security level of China's industrial and supply chains. [PBOC Net Injection of 247 Billion Yuan in Open Market Operations] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted 382 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. With 135 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations maturing today, a net injection of 247 billion yuan was achieved. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market on May 26 was 7.1833 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:03, the US dollar index fell by 0.29% to 98.81. According to CCTV News, on the 25th (local time), US President Trump stated that the EU had requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline until July 9, and he had agreed to this request. Previously, on the 23rd, Trump posted on social media suggesting a 50% tariff on goods from the EU starting from June 1. The annualized total of new home sales in the US in April was 743,000 units, the highest since February 2022. The market had previously expected 693,000 units, with the revised figure for March being 670,000 units and the initial estimate being 724,000 units. Builders have reduced prices to attract buyers, but rising mortgage rates and economic uncertainty remain unfavourable factors for the housing market. Federal Reserve Governor Cook pointed out on Friday that the high tariffs announced by the US government last month triggered financial market volatility but did not lead to a severe US market failure like that during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, she added that this experience would help "us continuously improve our ongoing assessment of the stability of the financial system." Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said in an interview with CNBC that US companies want to see consistent trade policies before making major investments or other decisions, and that President Trump's new threat to impose a 50% tariff on EU imports is a "terrible" proposal for the supply chain. (Wenhua Comprehensive) Macro: Today, the revised reading of the leading indicator change for Japan in March and the year-on-year rate of Spain's PPI in April will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that Fed Chairman Powell will deliver a commencement address at Princeton University's graduation ceremony, and ECB President Lagarde will speak at the Hertie School in Berlin. On May 26 (Monday), due to the Memorial Day holiday in the US and the Spring Bank Holiday in the UK, trading hours in the financial markets will be adjusted. The holiday arrangements for overseas exchanges are as follows (all in Beijing time): 》Public holidays in the UK and US today, holiday arrangements for overseas exchanges at a glance Crude oil: As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets rose together, with US crude oil up 0.29% and Brent crude oil up 0.23%. This follows the extension of the deadline for trade negotiations between the US and the EU by US President Trump, alleviating concerns that US tariffs on the EU could harm the global economy and fuel demand. "Crude oil and US stock index futures surged this morning after US President Trump extended the deadline," said Tony Sycamore, an IG market analyst. Sycamore noted that trade and tariff news, along with ongoing fiscal concerns, would be the main uncertainties affecting risk sentiment and crude oil prices this week. In its closely watched report, US energy services firm Baker Hughes said that the number of oil and natural gas rigs operated by US energy firms fell for the fourth consecutive week this week, reaching the lowest level since November 2021. Data showed that the total number of US oil and natural gas rigs, a leading indicator of future production, decreased by 10 to 566 in the week ending May 23, marking the largest weekly decline since September 2023. It was also the first time since September 2024 that the number of active US oil and natural gas rigs had declined for four consecutive weeks. Baker Hughes said this brought the total number of active rigs down by 34, or 6%, YoY. Oil price gains were capped by expectations that OPEC+, which consists of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, might decide to increase July's oil production by another 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) at its meeting next week. Suvro Sarkar, chief energy analyst at DBS Bank, said that oil was already under pressure from OPEC's strategy of accelerating production increases and a "mini oil price war." He added, "OPEC+'s decision in the coming days could curb oil price gains." This month, it was reported that OPEC+ might scrap the remaining voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million bpd by the end of October, after having already raised its production targets for April, May, and June by about 1 million bpd. Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, wrote in a report to clients that OPEC+'s decision to increase production should keep the market well-supplied in the second half of the year. (Comprehensive report from Wenhua) SMM Daily Review ► RMB Exchange Rate Rises, Immediate Losses on Imported ADC12 Narrow Again [Daily Review of ADC12 Prices] ► Manganese Plants Maintain Firm Pricing Sentiment, Spot Prices Remain Stable [SMM EMM Daily Review] ► Silver Prices Test Previous Highs, Downstream Buyers Stock Up at Lower Levels, Trading Sentiment Moderate [SMM Daily Review]