Developing local processing capacity is not simply a matter of building another plant next to a mine. It requires a country to simultaneously possess reliable energy supply, logistics infrastructure, chemical-industry capabilities, engineering expertise, customer qualification systems, access to financing, policy continuity and transparent pricing mechanisms. Resources can attract investment, but they cannot guarantee project success.

SMM Jun 8: Driven by stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data, which reinforced expectations for US interest rate hikes, the US dollar index rose, pushing SHFE aluminum lower under pressure. The SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated downward in the morning session, with the overall price center falling sharply from the previous trading day. Buying sentiment in east China recovered somewhat as the decline in aluminum prices prompted downstream users to buy on dips. Mainstream spot transaction prices were at discounts of 80–100 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 06 contract. The east China shipment sentiment index stood at 2.85, down 0.06 from the previous trading day, while the buying sentiment index was at 3.00, up 0.16 from the previous trading day. With a pullback in aluminum futures prices today, suppliers in central China significantly strengthened their sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, keeping quoted premiums high. However, after heavy stockpiling by downstream processing enterprises last week, most are still digesting inventories, and buying sentiment today edged lower from last Friday. Actual transaction prices in central China were mainly at discounts of 130–150 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 06 contract. Today, the central China shipment sentiment index was 2.87, up 0.01 from the previous trading day, while the buying sentiment index was 2.20, down 0.02 from the previous trading day. Inventory-wise, aluminum ingot inventories in major consumption regions rose 0.75 WoW today, with the buildup mainly driven by Wuxi.

【SMM Steel】Jubilee Metals Group has resumed full capacity at its Roan concentrator in Ndola Zambia targeting monthly run-of-mine throughput of 30000 tonnes following scheduled annual maintenance. Upgrades include an expanded copper oxide flotation circuit designed to boost recovery efficiency by 5% offsetting higher transport costs. Jubilee also commissioned a new fine copper concentrate dewatering facility to manage a stream representing about 25% of Roan's feedstock copper with material transported to its Sable refinery in Kabwe. The company is also evaluating an additional DMS circuit to potentially expand throughput.

[SMM Coke and Coking Coal Daily Briefing] Supply side, coking coal prices keep rising, and the cost of furnace feedstock stays high, continuously squeezing profit margins of coke enterprises, leading to weakened production willingness and a slight pullback in coke output. At present, the shipment pace of coke enterprises is smooth, and coke inventory at their plants keeps declining. Demand side, downstream steel mills are operating normally, blast furnace operating rates stay high, and there is stable rigid demand for coke. In some regions, steel mills' coke arrivals are insufficient, and restocking demand has increased to some extent. Overall, the current supply-demand pattern in the coke market remains tight. In the short term, the coke market will continue to show a strong tendency, with price movements overall improving.

SMM June 8 News: [Shanghai Metals Market] On June 8, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 23,890, down 220, with a discount of 190 against the current-month contract, flat (unit: yuan/mt). Futures plunged significantly today, while spot in South China remained steady with improvement. The low absolute price somewhat constrained outright sales. Combined with continued inventory destocking providing confidence support, although enthusiasm for shipments from hedging positions remained relatively high and liquidity was ample, the overall room for price concessions was limited, with mainstream quotations at a premium of 0~+10 yuan/mt. The narrowing forward month spread kept spot-futures price spread expectations relatively stable at high levels, further strengthening sellers' resolve in quoting. Demand side, end-users shifted from a wait-and-see attitude to steady bargain buying at lower prices, while traders also gradually entered the market to purchase. Buyer momentum clearly recovered, and market transactions were moderate. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at a range of discount of 210 yuan/mt to 170 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract.

DCE iron ore futures trended weaker today, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 759 yuan/mt, down 0.78% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices fell 5 yuan/mt from the day before. Traders followed the market trend with moderate offering interest; steel mills mainly engaged in need-based restocking, with limited inquiry. Trading volume of spot cargoes was modest as of now. Shipping data shows China's iron ore supply has entered a loose phase, with ore prices gradually coming under pressure. SMM data indicates that last week, global iron ore shipment volume dropped 3.88% WoW to 33.83 million mt, while iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports rose 2% WoW to 27.54 million mt. Meanwhile, the decline in port pick-up volume also reflects that demand from steel mills has begun to slow. With expectations of rising coking coal and coke prices still in place, even if hot metal prices remain elevated, steel mills' receptiveness to iron ore prices is quite constrained, making ore prices overall more likely to fall than rise. In the near term, iron ore prices will likely remain under pressure, exhibiting a generally weak trend.

In April, energy demand in Anhui province continued to rebound, with secure and effective energy supply ensured. Electricity demand rebounded positively. In April, total electricity consumption reached 28.61 billion kWh, up 5.2% YoY, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.5 percentage points MoM. Power supply capacity steadily improved. In April, installed power generation capacity in the province increased by 630,000 kW, bringing total installed capacity to 148 million kW, up 13.2% YoY. Thermal coal supply remained stable and orderly. In April, Anhui's raw coal output was 8.75 million mt, with coal stockpiles at major power plants sufficient for 25 days of use. Natural gas consumption pulled back. In April, Anhui's natural gas consumption was 920 million cubic meters, down 6% YoY. Installed renewable energy generation capacity grew steadily. In April, newly added renewable energy generation capacity in the province was 600,000 kW, bringing total installed renewable energy capacity to 77.52 million kW.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Bullish and Bearish News Alternately Drive SS to Retreat After Rapid Rise; Stainless Steel Spot Prices Stay Stable, Transactions Mediocre SMM, June 8: SS futures showed an advance-then-decline trend. In the morning, due to an earthquake in the Philippines, the market feared that nickel ore supply would be impacted, driving SHFE nickel and SS futures higher together. However, in the afternoon, news emerged from Indonesia that nickel ore quotas were expected to be relaxed, causing SS futures to decline once again. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,665 yuan/mt. On the spot market, although SS futures showed strength in the morning, some stainless steel spot offers edged up, but market acceptance of higher prices was limited, and transactions were mediocre. The most-traded SS futures contract pulled back. At 10:15 a.m., SS2607 was quoted at 14,725 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 345-945 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; for cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil, average prices in Wuxi and Foshan were both flat; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil offers in Wuxi held steady; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. Stainless steel futures and spot markets experienced heightened volatility. Futures, swayed by overseas macro news, rose first and then fell, fully revealing the off-season character of the market. The industry's outlook for the near-term market is ambiguous, wait-and-see sentiment is strong, transactions see sporadic recovery but lack sustainability, traders are under rising shipment pressure, and many are boosting sales by offering price concessions. Overall, macro...

According to CISA data released June 4, member mills averaged 2.01 million tonnes/day of crude steel in late May, down 4.6% (80,000 t/d) from mid-May and 4.1% year-on-year. Including non-members, national daily output averaged 2.69 million t/d, down 4.3%. North China led the decline at -8.3% (57,000 t/d). Finished steel output edged up 3.2% to 2.07 million t/d. Despite this, inventories fell: member mill stocks dropped 15.7% to 15.83 million tonnes by May 31, while stocks in 21 tracked cities dipped to 10.22 million tonnes.

SMM June 8: Data Summary: As of Monday, June 8, SMM copper inventory in major regions across China fell WoW to 233,000 mt, up 83,500 mt from 149,500 mt in the same period last year. Specifically, in Shanghai, warehouse withdrawals were steady, but arrivals of imported and domestic copper cathode stayed low, leading to steady destocking. In Jiangsu, insufficient arrivals pushed inventory down in tandem; in Guangdong, tight supply persisted, while weaker copper prices drove concentrated restocking by end-users, further reducing regional inventory. Market Outlook: In the short term, arrivals of imported and domestic copper are likely to stay low, keeping overall supply tight. On the demand side, the recent pullback in copper prices has spurred downstream purchasing sentiment, with demand recovering. A survey shows that the operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to decline to 61.32% this week, down 4.41 percentage points WoW. Based on supply-demand dynamics, with tight supply and recovering demand in the short term, China's social copper inventory is expected to see slight destocking next week.