In June, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes heated up, driving the US dollar index up more than 2% for the month. This coincided with the electronics industry entering the traditional off-season and weak end-use demand, while doubts lingered over the sustainability of the AI sector rally. Profit-taking on earlier high-price positions intensified, and these combined factors dragged tin prices lower. SHFE tin fell 7.08% in June, while LME tin dropped 6.68% over the same period. Since the start of July, comments from Warsh at the Sintra Forum that "inflation expectations have declined over the past four weeks, and inflation risks have also diminished," together with US June non-farm payrolls data missing expectations, have cooled market expectations for US Fed rate hikes. At the same time, tech stocks rebounded. These multiple positive drivers pushed tin prices to drift higher in early July. As of around 16:51 on July 6, LME tin was up 1.26% to $52,970/mt, with its month-to-date July gain at 2.56%; SHFE tin was up 3.09% to 410,360 yuan/mt, with a 5.4% month-to-date rise. Spot Market Tin prices fell over 8% in June; spot prices rose for consecutive days in July but wait-and-see sentiment prevails Spot tin prices: SMM #1 tin spot price rose for four consecutive days, with the July 6 quote at 406,900-415,300 yuan/mt and the average price at 411,100 yuan/mt, up 2.96% from the previous trading day. As tin prices rebounded, wait-and-see sentiment intensified in the spot market. Only some rigid demand purchases were made, and overall market trading activity was subdued. Looking at the monthly trend, the average spot price of SMM #1 tin stood at 387,800 yuan/mt on June 30, compared with 425,000 yuan/mt on May 29—a drop of 37,200 yuan/mt, or 8.75%, in just over a month. Notably, as tin prices fell to around 380,000 yuan/mt, downstream restocking demand saw a phase of release. Fundamentals ►Production: Refined tin production edged up MoM in June According to SMM data based on market communication, China's refined tin production edged slightly higher MoM in June 2026, with overall output remaining relatively stable. The slight rise in June refined tin production was driven by two main factors. Supply side, raw material availability showed marginal improvement: earlier overseas tin ore import increases became more evident, and while production resumptions at Myanmar mines were slow, ore continued to flow out, somewhat easing tightness in domestic raw materials. On the other hand, rising arrivals of imported ore at ports drove smelting TCs higher, bringing a phase of relief to the prolonged raw material tightness and creating conditions for smelters to raise operating rates and boost output. However, subsequent production expansion faces multiple constraints: May to July is the traditional rainy season in Myanmar, which limits open-pit mining operations and ore transportation, leading to expectations of a MoM pullback in short-term imported ore arrivals. Overall, the refined tin supply-side is marginally loose at the current stage, but downstream industries are entering the traditional consumption off-season. With both supply and demand weakening, output is unlikely to see a significant surge in the short term. ► Imports: Tin ore imports rose both YoY and MoM in May, with imports from Myanmar surging 384.5% YoY. China's tin ore imports in May were 16,800 mt (equivalent to about 6,408 mt in metal content), up 7.07% MoM and 25.61% YoY, an increase of 1,221 mt in metal content from April (which was equivalent to about 5,187 mt in metal content). Cumulative imports from January to May were 85,900 mt, up 71.41% YoY. China's tin ingot imports in May were 1,838 mt, down 34.4% MoM and 11.46% YoY, with cumulative imports from January to April at 11,196 mt, up 17.75% YoY. Trade data for the tin industry chain from 2025 to May 2026 show the global tin market's supply-demand pattern is undergoing significant structural adjustment, characterized by accelerating supply recovery from overseas mines, easing domestic raw material supply pressure, and downstream smelting increasing supply due to lower raw material costs, while weak overseas demand hinders exports. On the raw material supply side, cumulative tin ore imports from January to May 2026 reached 85,998 mt, surging 71.41% YoY, with May imports alone at 16,831 mt, up 7.07% MoM and soaring 25.61% YoY. This strong rebound was mainly driven by the recovery of Myanmar ore, with tin ore imports from Myanmar reaching 6,634 mt in May, surging 384.5% YoY, and cumulative YoY growth from January to May soaring to 203.49%; in contrast, while tin ore imports from countries outside Myanmar maintained a cumulative positive growth of 34.72%, May single-month volumes still fell 15.23% YoY, indicating a relatively moderate supply recovery from non-Myanmar sources. ► Inventories: SMM weekly tin ingot social inventory across three regions declined for four consecutive weeks. China tin ingot social inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of July 4, 2026, total tin ingot social inventory across three regions in China stood at 7,299 mt, down sharply by 1,374 mt from 8,673 mt the previous week (June 26), a decline of 15.84% WoW. Looking at the trend, since hitting a near-term peak of 13,604 mt in early June, China's tin ingot social inventory has declined for four consecutive weeks, with cumulative destocking over the past month reaching as high as 46.4%. The destocking slope exhibited a "gradual then steep" pattern, and the current inventory level has pulled back to a year-to-date low, signaling marked marginal improvement in the market supply-demand pattern. By region, inventory in Shanghai dropped to 3,750 mt, a weekly decline of 996 mt, contributing 72.5% of the total weekly destocking and making it the dominant force in this round of destocking, reflecting accelerated trade flows in east China and a substantial rebound in downstream purchase willingness. Inventory in Guangdong also declined to 3,449 mt, down 378 mt WoW, accounting for 27.5% of total destocking, confirming that downstream rigid demand in south China, represented by solder enterprises, remained resilient and the pace of stockpiling accelerated. Analyzing the underlying logic, on the one hand, it was driven by restocking after price pullbacks. The dampening effect of previously high tin prices on downstream purchases gradually faded as prices returned to rational levels recently, and pent-up rigid orders were released in a concentrated manner, accelerating the digestion of visible inventory. LME tin inventory: On June 30, LME tin inventory data stood at 8,575 mt, compared to 8,850 mt on May 29, indicating that LME tin inventory declined in June. SMM Outlook On the macro front, a number of macro events in and outside China will continue to disturb tin price movements in July. Outside China, key focus will be on US CPI and PCE inflation data, as well as the US Fed's interest rate meeting at month-end. Earlier, Walsh said that inflation risks have receded, and coupled with the June non-farm payrolls data falling short of expectations, market bets on rate hikes have temporarily cooled. If subsequent inflation data rebounds again and the Fed releases a hawkish tone, a stronger US dollar will suppress tin price trends; conversely, if easing expectations continue, they will provide valuation support for tin prices. At the domestic level, the central bank increased liquidity injections, ultra-long-term special government bonds were steadily implemented, and stimulus policies related to technological transformation of high-end manufacturing and equipment renewal gradually took effect, which are positive for the consumption of tin downstream industries such as semiconductors, AI computing power, and new energy in the medium and long term. However, the weak pattern of the electronics industry during the off-season is hard to reverse quickly in the short term, and the pace of policy dividend releases regarding domestic demand will directly determine the intensity of downstream spot restocking. Fundamentals: On the supply side, the overall tight supply situation of tin ore remained unchanged, but marginal increase signals increased. Smelters maintained stable production with no large-scale production cuts for the time being. On the demand side, entering the traditional consumption off-season, downstream solder enterprises were generally cautious in procurement, and the market relied solely on rigid demand purchases, with high prices significantly dampening purchase willingness. On the inventory side, tin inventories both in and outside China maintained a destocking trend, providing inventory support for tin prices. In summary, changes in macro expectations combined with the performance of the technology sector will affect the fluctuation range of tin prices. Tight ore supply and low overall inventory formed strong fundamental bottom support, acting as a floor for tin prices. However, the sluggish demand during the current off-season will continue to drag on futures, limiting the upside room for tin prices. Looking ahead, it is crucial to closely track US Fed policy direction, the sentiment of the semiconductor industry chain, and continuously monitor the pace of destocking in and outside China. Only when there is a substantial recovery in demand can it provide new upward driving force for tin prices. Recommended reading:

HRC futures closed at 3,283 today, down 0.21% for the day. In the spot market, cold and hot rolled prices remained largely stable. According to SMM data, steel mill profits have quickly shrunk recently. At the same time, pressure to take orders increased significantly during the off-season, leading some mills to plan new maintenance and production cuts. The combined impact has resulted in a MoM decline in the daily average HRC production schedule for July. Demand side, Q2 remains a domestic off-season, with muted downstream purchases and market transactions. Inventory pressure is expected to keep rising, and the supply-demand imbalance will gradually accumulate. HRC’s own supply-demand pattern offers limited support for prices. Overall, the supply-demand imbalance for HRC is gradually accumulating in July. Cost side, the difficulty for further short-term price increases intensifies. Considering that macro expectations and changes in external imbalances can provide limited stimulus to steel prices, short-term HRC prices are expected to continue consolidating near the bottom.

SMM CRC Production Schedule: July Steel Mill CRC Production Schedule Down 2%, Daily Average Down 6% According to the latest SMM tracking, the planned cold-rolled commercial material volume of 31 mainstream cold-rolled sheet/coil steel mills this month totaled 4.1115 million mt, down 99,700 mt or 2.4% MoM from the actual cold-rolled commercial material production last month. On a daily average basis, with one more day in July than in June, the daily average scheduled cold-rolled commercial material production in July was 132,600 mt, down 5.5% MoM from the actual daily average production last month. SMM HRC Production Schedule: July Steel Mills' HRC Scheduled Production Up 1% Daily Average Down 2% According to the latest SMM tracking, 39 mainstream HRC mills have a total planned commercial HRC output of 13.4457 million mt this month, up 132,800 mt, or 1.0%, MoM. On a daily average basis, July has one more day than June. The daily average scheduled commercial HRC production in July is 433,700 mt, down 2.3% from the actual daily average production in June. Recently, steel mill profits have shrunk sharply, and pressure to take orders has increased significantly amid the off-season. Some mills have added new maintenance and production-cut plans. Combined, these factors led to the MoM decline in the daily average HRC scheduled production in July. In summary, the total planned commercial HRC output in July was basically flat MoM, but due to more days in July than June, the daily average scheduled production edged down MoM. Demand side, Q2 remained in the domestic off-season, with downstream purchases and market transactions performing sluggishly. Inventory pressure is expected to keep rising, and the supply-demand imbalance is gradually accumulating. The HRC supply-demand pattern provides limited support for prices. Overall, the HRC supply-demand imbalance is gradually building up, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for costs to rise further in the short term. Considering that macro expectations and changes in external conflicts provide limited stimulus to steel prices, HRC prices in July are expected to consolidate near the bottom, with the average price likely to edge down slightly from June.

SMM July 4 news: Metal market: Last Friday night, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper gained 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead added 0.38%, SHFE zinc increased 0.87%, and SHFE tin jumped 3.8%. SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.07%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Last Friday night, ferrous metals mostly closed higher. Stainless steel dropped 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar gained 0.39%, and hot-rolled coil added 0.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Last Friday night, in the overseas market, LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.54%, LME aluminum added 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%, LME zinc climbed 2.17%, LME tin surged 4.99%, and LME nickel rose 0.4%. Last Friday night, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.49%, posting a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver gained 2.87%, closing the week higher with a 5.26% increase. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, ending the week up 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 1.61%, posting a weekly rise of 8.82%. JPMorgan said that in the short term, gold prices may be capped by weakening demand and are likely to remain moving sideways overall. The main reasons are weaker purchasing power in key demand areas and renewed sensitivity of gold to changes in real interest rates, which may limit further price gains. However, the bank maintains a medium- to long-term bullish outlook. It expects gold to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price of around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, JPMorgan believes the rally may continue, driven mainly by continued central bank buying, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will support gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 a.m. on July 4, last Friday night's closing quotations: Macro front China: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level self-reliance in science and technology, building a strong domestic market, and deepening reforms and expanding opening up] On July 1, Premier Li Qiang, also secretary of the CPC Leadership Group of the State Council, presided over a meeting of the group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping Thought on Party Building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [PBOC: To conduct 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on July 6, with 3-month tenor] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation via a fixed-quantity, interest rate tender with multiple-price winning bids, with a tenor of 3 months (91 days), maturing on October 5, 2026 (adjusted for holidays if it falls on a holiday). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 100.91. On the weekly chart: The dollar index fell on a weekly basis, down 0.44% for the week, its biggest weekly decline since mid-April. The decline occurred as US June employment data cooled noticeably, leading the market to lower expectations for near-term Fed rate hikes, and the dollar index fell this week. Against a weaker dollar backdrop, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% for the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% for the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY once pulling back to around 161, though still at elevated levels. Japan continued to release signals of forex intervention, with finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring markets and remain prepared to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's movement has clearly been influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations, and if subsequent economic data continue to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure. However, whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japan's policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he considers Fed Chairman Warsh to be on the dovish side within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). A day earlier, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks; a week earlier, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he hoped the Fed would remain "open-minded" on inflation and expects the Fed to ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabel Mateos y Lago said: "If July's nonfarm payrolls are very strong, close to or exceeding 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be as high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike remains valid." Ahead of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets expected a roughly 20% probability of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 rate decision, down from 33% before the release of the payrolls report. Markets still expect the US Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points this year, but not until December at the earliest. For the ECB, Lagarde said, "The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. But it is worth noting that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra meeting did not rule out skipping this additional hike." She warned that the normalization of energy supply could take six months or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she also believes that consumer prices outside energy-affected areas will not face pressure. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said, "The US non-farm payrolls data was actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is where the real divergence between Europe and the US lies." Subran believes that after last month's hike, the ECB will not act again. "That was an insurance hike, but judging from the current data, it seems that moment has passed," he said. "The trauma effect of the war (with Iran) takes time to manifest. The economy is still bearing the costs of war, but the situation is much better than a few weeks ago."(Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Mullan said that as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone, the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike. Mullan said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials have made clear that "we will not enter a new rate-hiking cycle." Mullan said, "For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level." Mullan added, "Falling oil prices will ease inflation pressure in the services sector," and "we have not yet seen second-round effects."(Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of Switzerland June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone May PPI m/m, Eurozone May retail sales m/m, US June S&P Global Services PMI Final, US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France May trade balance, US ADP employment change for the week ended June 20, US May trade balance, China June foreign exchange reserves, Japan May trade balance, New Zealand interest rate decision for July 8, US May wholesale sales m/m, China June CPI y/y, China June PPI y/y, Germany May seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, US June existing home sales annualized, Germany June CPI m/m final, France June CPI m/m final, Switzerland June consumer confidence index, Canada June employment change, China June M2 money supply y/y, and other data. Additionally, events to watch this week include: a 900 billion yuan outright reverse repo maturing today; speeches from Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank Seim; Turkey hosts the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremman holds a monetary policy press conference; the Fed releases minutes of its monetary policy meeting; the ECB releases minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivers a speech. Crude Oil: In overnight trading last Friday, both oil futures edged up slightly, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On the weekly chart: WTI futures fell for a fourth consecutive week, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also declined for a fourth straight week, down 0.91% for the week. The crude oil market is relatively stable, with Brent stabilizing near $72 per barrel as the market weighs the supply outlook around the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street News) Data from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show: In the week ending June 30, Brent crude futures speculators cut their net long positions by 34,704 contracts to 55,634 contracts. Gasoil futures speculators cut their net long positions by 2,664 contracts to 57,852 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Data show that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (bpd) from May, exceeding 10 million bpd, but still 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in oil markets, enabling millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf region to enter international markets, allowing producers to raise output and push oil prices down to pre-war levels. Kpler data show that combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran rose by more than 3.5 million bpd from May to 10.07 million bpd. Vortexa, another cargo analytics firm, estimated June shipments at 10.2 million bpd, up from 7 million bpd in May, but still well below the 16.5 million bpd recorded a year earlier. According to data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, the UAE’s crude exports reached a record 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd in June, more than 1 million bpd above May’s level. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, three sources said that Venezuela’s largest refinery, the 645,000-bpd Amuay refinery, has resumed operations after a power outage on Friday and is currently processing about 140,000 bpd of crude, with the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit also back online. Following two earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, multiple refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Sources also said that the El Palito refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 146,000 barrels, has had power restored, but staff have not yet been able to restart the production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million barrels per day MoM to 19.43 million barrels per day, a clear rebound from May’s more-than-two-decade low, but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output mainly came from Gulf countries restoring supply, with Kuwait posting the largest increase; Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya likewise made small increases. The UAE exited OPEC on May 1 and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted supply; the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping some output recover. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the plan was not fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply was being repaired, but had not yet returned to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading:

In June the aluminum processing industry exhibited a pronounced divergence pattern of "external demand outperforming domestic demand, with the aluminum wire and cable industry unable to sustain the market on its own." Export orders, energy storage, UHV, and other areas provided structural support, but a combination of weak domestic consumption, wild swings in aluminum prices, and policy disruptions made it difficult for the overall industry sentiment to recover markedly in the short term.

When asked, "What are the technological content and barriers of the company's rolled copper foil? Who are the domestic and international competitors? Which companies are downstream clients?" North Copper responded on the investor interaction platform on June 25: The technological content and barriers of the company's rolled copper foil are reflected in: 1. The long process flow of rolled copper foil, involving disciplines such as smelting, rolling, metal heat treatment, and electrochemistry, requires continuous trial production to accumulate a process database. This represents a long-term experiential barrier that cannot be quickly reverse-engineered. 2. Capital and hardware thresholds, with extremely high equipment investment, high barriers for equipment installation, commissioning, and operation, and severe limitations on product width and ultra-thin gauge. 3. Barriers in rolling and forming processes, which are also the highest thresholds—covering product thickness, sheet flatness, internal structure, and mechanical properties, as well as the synergistic barriers of dozens of interconnected processing steps. The consistency control across the entire process is far more demanding than the single-step electrodeposition process for copper cathode foil. Regarding the statement, "The CCL construction portion of the company's 50,000 mt high-performance rolled copper foil and 2 million m² copper clad laminate (CCL) project has not yet commenced due to insufficient relevant technology and talent reserves, out of prudence. Next, the company will decide on the CCL investment and construction plan based on thorough market surveys and scientific validation," North Copper responded on the investor interaction platform on June 25: The CCL construction portion of the company's 50,000 mt high-performance rolled copper foil and 2 million m² CCL project has not yet commenced due to insufficient relevant technology and talent reserves, out of prudence. Next, the company will decide on the CCL investment and construction plan based on thorough market surveys and scientific validation. North Copper responded on the investor interaction platform on June 25: The company seizes market opportunities, closely monitors downstream market demand, focuses on R&D for mid-to-high-end copper strip products and structural adjustments for rolled copper foil products, and is committed to filling gaps in its process lines and reaching its capacity standard, striving to turn losses into profits as soon as possible. Regarding the question, "When will the company's semi-annual report performance forecast announcement be released?", North Copper responded on the investor interaction platform on June 25: The company has scheduled the disclosure of its 2026 semi-annual report for August 27. If the conditions for a performance forecast are met, the company will release the announcement within the stipulated time. When asked, "After the implementation of the 'Regulations on the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China', has the related work on applying for the mining permit for the newly added copper ore at the Tongkuangyu Mine been accelerated? Could you discuss the company's near-term plans? If progress goes smoothly, based on the ore's copper grade and after deducting relevant costs, how much profit is this expected to bring to the company?" North Copper responded on the investor interaction platform on June 24: The detailed survey of deep-seated replacement resources at the Tongkuangyu Mine is a project to add reserves outside the current mining right's boundary at depth (elevation range: 80m to -325m), which is conducive to increasing the company's copper resource reserves and extending the mine's service life. Given that the replacement resources identified by the detailed survey have reached a large scale, according to reserve review and filing requirements, the exploration level must be achieved for resource reserve filing and for initiating the transition from exploration to mining. As the mine's production level shifts downward, the company will conduct further exploration work for deep-seated replacement resources at the next production level. The company currently has no relevant deep exploration plans. Regarding the question, "As a third-generation core substrate material for IC lead frames, could you briefly introduce the production and latest order status of your company's 5,000 mt chromium zirconium copper alloy product?", North Copper responded on the investor interaction platform on June 23: Our company has completed the casting ingot product for C18150 (chromium zirconium copper alloy); the subsequent copper strip process is currently under trial production. There are no orders at present. On June 17, North Copper stated on the interaction platform in response to an investor's question that the company has not yet established a cooperative relationship with NVIDIA. On June 17, North Copper stated on the interaction platform in response to an investor's question that the company has a comprehensive market cap management system, consistently centering market cap management on enhancing intrinsic value. Through methods such as focusing on core business growth, optimizing governance structures, strengthening information disclosure, and implementing shareholder return plans, it is committed to achieving long-term alignment between the company's value and its market performance. Should there be arrangements such as share buybacks or capital increase plans, the company will promptly issue relevant announcements. On June 15, North Copper stated on the interaction platform in response to an investor's question that, relying on scientific research breakthroughs at the Shanxi Provincial Key Laboratory of New Copper-based Materials, the company's copper strip and foil product structure is undergoing further adjustment and optimization. All production and operation activities are proceeding in an orderly manner, and product orders are growing steadily. On June 4, North Copper stated on the interaction platform in response to an investor's question that the company's management places high importance on extending the industry chain and has made positive progress in deep copper processing. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the company will rely on its existing copper strip and foil production lines to achieve new breakthroughs in scientific research, product structure adjustment, and capacity enhancement, thereby empowering the company's high-quality development. Performance: North Copper's previously released 2026 Q1 report showed that in Q1, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.044 billion yuan, up 46.89% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 615 million yuan, with a YoY increase reaching 65.74%. Regarding the reasons for the increase in operating revenue, North Copper stated in its Q1 report that it was mainly due to an increase in product sales volume and rising prices. Additionally, North Copper's 2025 annual performance report showed that the company achieved operating revenue of 27.916 billion yuan in 2025, up 15.80% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent company was 791 million yuan, up 29.01% YoY. 2025 main product production: copper cathode produced was 300,300 mt, sulphuric acid 766,000 mt, gold ingots 6.4 mt, and silver ingots 68.5 mt. In its 2025 annual report, North Copper described: The company's main business is the mining, beneficiation, smelting, and rolling processing of copper metal. Currently, its captive mine has an annual ore processing capacity of 9 million mt and self-produced copper content of 43,000 mt. Its copper smelting capacity is 320,000 mt, along with gold ingots 10.8 mt, silver ingots 170 mt, and sulphuric acid 1.22 million mt, while it also comprehensively recovers valuable metals like platinum, palladium, selenium, and bismuth. Deep copper processing products include high-performance copper and copper alloy strips, rolled copper foil, etc., of which copper alloy strip capacity is 25,000 mt/year and rolled copper foil capacity is 5,000 mt/year. The company already possesses an integrated industry chain from mining, beneficiation, and smelting to rolling processing. The company's 'Zhongtiaoshan' brand Grade A copper is registered on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, and its 'Zhongtiaoshan' brand gold and silver ingots are registered on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The mineral exploration situation disclosed in North Copper's 2025 annual report showed that the company completed the detailed survey project of deep-seated replacement resources at the Tongkuangyu Copper Mine (below 80m elevation), with primary completed workloads: prospecting roadway 140.6m, 12 drill chambers/2,823.6m³, 12 drill holes (including 3 hydrogeological holes), drilling footage 7,268.62m, 1:2000 special hydrogeological, engineering geological, and environmental geological survey 6㎢, geophysical logging 2,065.61m, and pumping tests for 3 holes; 8,091 samples analyzed and tested, 46 rock/mineral test groups, 99 small-weight samples, 20 copper phase analysis samples, 10 complete chemical analysis samples, and 12 complete water quality analysis samples. On February 20, 2025, the Shanxi Mining Association organized the completion of supervision and field acceptance work for the resource detailed survey project, issuing supervision and field acceptance reports. In early March, the company completed the compilation of the 'Special Hydrogeological, Engineering Geological and Environmental Geological Detailed Survey Report for the Deep Part of the Tongkuangyu Mine'. On March 17, the Shanxi Mining Association organized an expert review which was passed. In May, the company completed the compilation of the 'Detailed Survey Report on Deep-seated Replacement Resources at the Tongkuangyu Copper Mine in Yuanqu County, Shanxi Province' (hereinafter referred to as the report). On May 23, the Shanxi Mining Association organized an expert review which was passed, and an review opinion was issued. According to the report, as of December 31, 2024, within the 80m to -325m elevation range of the Tongkuangyu mining area, cumulative identified industrial orebody (No. 5) resources amounted to 103.718 million mt of copper ore with an average grade of 0.84% and a metal content of 869,600 mt. Associated gold metal content was 8,930 kg at an avg. grade of 0.09g/t; associated molybdenum metal content was 3,727 mt at an avg. grade of 0.011%. Low-grade copper ore resources amounted to 34.625 million mt with an avg. grade of 0.25% and a metal content of 88,200 mt. The scale of discovered resources reached large-size, marking a significant prospecting achievement and providing a solid resource guarantee for the company's industry chain layout. Regarding the company's copper ore resource reserves, North Copper announced in its annual report, As of year-end 2025, the Tongkuangyu Mine had retained copper ore resources above 80m elevation of 204.664 million mt, with a copper metal content of 1.2501 million mt. Additionally, below 80m elevation at the base of the Tongkuangyu Mine's current mining right, the cumulative identified industrial orebody (No. 5) copper ore resources was 103.718 million mt, with an average grade of 0.84% and a metal content of 869,600 mt. For the 2026 production and operation plan, North Copper mentioned in its 2025 annual report: Main product production: copper cathode 300,000 mt, sulphuric acid 800,000 mt, gold ingots 6 mt, silver ingots 60 mt, to maximize economic benefits. A research report from Huaxi Securities on June 14 pointed out: In the medium and long term, copper, as a key metal for energy transition, possesses strategic allocation value under the policy guidance of the 15th Five-Year Plan. On the supply side, entering 2026, major mines globally have continued to experience strikes and production halts this year, keeping the supply profile relatively tight. From a macro perspective, the probability of a US Fed interest rate cut during the year still exists. In the long term, the macro environment supports copper prices, and the US dollar is expected to continue depreciating, supporting a positive outlook on copper prices. Furthermore, strong supply-demand fundamentals support copper prices. China's macro policies are expected to continue exerting force, and stimulus measures in sectors like electric power infrastructure, NEVs, and home appliance consumption could further expand. Beneficiary stocks: [Zijin Mining], [CMOC], [JCHX], [Jiangxi Copper Corporation], [Western Mining Co., Ltd.], [North Copper], [Tongling Nonferrous Metals], [Yunnan Copper].

In June, steel prices were affected by the simultaneous weakening of end-use demand and cost support. HRC futures and spot prices moved sideways before trending lower, with the most-traded contract's monthly average price down 1.85% and SMM's national HRC monthly average spot price down 1.93%. In terms of fundamentals, SMM's latest survey shows that this week, HRC social inventory at 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) tracked by SMM reached 4.2912 million mt, up 64,500 mt WoW (+1.53% WoW) and up 39.78% YoY on a lunar calendar basis. By region, inventory buildup in northeast, central, and north China exceeded that in east China, while south China reported slight destocking. Recent transactions were sluggish, with soft market deals, leading to a slight accumulation of steel inventory. Looking into July, supply side, according to the latest SMM intelligence, there are currently few new HRC maintenance shutdowns at steel mills, and domestic HRC production schedules for July are expected to edge up from June. Demand side, given that Q2 remains in the off-season for domestic consumption, downstream procurement and market deals are subdued. Inventory pressure is expected to mount from July, with supply-demand imbalances gradually building. HRC's own supply-demand pattern will provide limited support to prices. Cost side, market views on coal and coke price trends are currently divergent, while iron ore prices are expected to still have downside room. Overall, as HRC's supply-demand imbalances gradually build, it becomes harder for costs to rise further. Considering limited macro and external stimulus for steel prices, HRC prices in July are expected to hover at lows tracking the cost trend, with the average price potentially edging lower.

Since 2017, Vietnam’s solar market has grown rapidly under strong policy support, especially feed-in tariff incentives. This drove fast capacity expansion but also exposed grid constraints as development outpaced transmission infrastructure. As subsidies gradually phased out, market logic shifted from policy-driven growth to energy security and system stability.

SMM, June 15: Metal markets: Last Friday’s overnight session saw broad gains across base metals in and outside China, with only LME nickel edging down 0.03%. SHFE tin led the gains, rising 2.19%. LME copper, LME zinc, LME tin and SHFE zinc all gained over 1%: LME copper rose 1.02%, LME zinc rose 1.63%, LME tin rose 1.75% and SHFE zinc rose 1.48%, while the rest of the metals gained less than 1%. In addition, the alumina main contract rose 0.86% and the foundry aluminum main contract rose 0.45%. Last Friday’s overnight session for ferrous metals saw rises across the board except for iron ore, which fell 0.13%. Rebar rose 0.44% and HRC rose 0.59%. On the coking coal and coke front, coking coal rose 0.22% and coke rose 2.73%. Last Friday’s overnight session saw precious metals rebound collectively. COMEX gold rose 3.06% and COMEX silver rose 6.44%. However, due to notable earlier declines, COMEX gold still recorded a weekly loss of 2.87%, marking its second consecutive weekly drop. COMEX silver recorded a weekly loss of 1.42%, marking its fifth consecutive weekly drop. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 2.30% and SHFE silver rose 5.22%. SHFE gold posted a weekly loss of 6.79%, also marking its fifth consecutive weekly drop. SHFE silver plummeted 10.14% for the week, also marking a five-week losing streak. Bank of China issued an announcement, stating that global geopolitics and the US Fed's monetary policy are currently subject to considerable uncertainty. Under the influence of multiple factors, price fluctuations of precious metals in and outside China have further intensified. To protect the interests of clients involved in precious metals-related businesses—such as accumulated gold, accumulated interest gold, account precious metals, two-way account precious metals, and agency services for individual Shanghai Gold Exchange operations—the bank specifically reminds you to guard against market risks, engage in rational investment based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance, reasonably control your precious metals positions, mitigate the impact of short-term price fluctuations through long-term investment, and prevent the risk of capital losses caused by market volatility. As of 8:31 a.m. on June 13, the closing prices from last Friday’s overnight session are as follows: Macro front Domestic front: [PBoC: In the first five months, aggregate social financing rose by 1.748 trillion yuan; new loans stood at 911 billion yuan; May M2 increased 8.6% YoY] PBoC’s preliminary statistics show that the cumulative increase in the aggregate social financing scale for the first five months of 2026 was 17.48 trillion yuan, 1.16 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. Specifically, RMB loans extended to the real economy rose by 9 trillion yuan, a YoY decline of 1.38 trillion yuan; foreign currency loans extended to the real economy, converted into RMB, rose by 115.3 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 211.6 billion yuan; entrusted loans decreased by 103.1 billion yuan, a YoY increase in decline of 91.8 billion yuan; trust loans rose by 5.7 billion yuan, a YoY decline in growth of 57 billion yuan; undiscounted bankers’ acceptances decreased by 17.2 billion yuan, a YoY increase in decline of 151.4 billion yuan; net financing from corporate bonds was 1.67 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 757.7 billion yuan; net financing from government bonds was 5.67 trillion yuan, a YoY decrease of 634 billion yuan; and domestic stock financing by non-financial enterprises was 230.5 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 79.9 billion yuan. In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans fell by 694.2 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans rose by 62.8 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions grew by 9.63 trillion yuan, with short-term loans up 3.77 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans up 4.99 trillion yuan, and bill financing up 699.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 279.7 billion yuan. PBOC data showed that at end-May, broad money (M2) stood at 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. Narrow money (M1) totaled 114.89 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) reached 14.69 trillion yuan, up 11.9% YoY. Net cash injection in the first five months was 590.7 billion yuan. According to the PBOC website, to maintain ample banking system liquidity, on June 15, 2026, the People’s Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation through fixed-quantity, rate-based tender and multiple-price bidding, with a tenor of 6 months (183 days), maturing on December 15, 2026. US dollar: As of the overnight close last Friday, the US dollar index edged up 0.1% to 99.79, posting a weekly decline of 0.28%, with markets closely watching US-Iran peace talks. Multiple US media reported on the 12th that a senior US administration official said that day the US side is “80% to 85%” confident of signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran within the coming days. The official also expressed confidence that Israel would support this US-Iran MoU. According to CNN, CBS and others, the official said on a press conference call, “We are not yet fully at the finish line, but we are very close.” The official noted that the specific venue and date for signing the MoU have not been determined, but US President Trump previously suggested signing it in a European country, which could be an option. (Xinhua) Iranian media reported on the 12th that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that once the final stage of negotiations between Iran and the US is completed, the MoU will be signed and announced immediately. The first stage will be signed electronically remotely, “possibly within the next few days.” (Xinhua) HSBC analysts noted in a report that the US dollar exchange rate is currently below levels implied by market expectations for US interest rates. They said the dollar’s reaction has been relatively limited as market expectations recently shifted from anticipated rate cuts to potential rate hikes. They believe this may reflect loose financial conditions in the US and hopes for a resolution to the Middle East conflict. They stated that the dollar requires clear stimulus from monetary policy. If the US Fed fails to support rate hike expectations at this week's meeting, the dollar "could be in trouble." (Jin10 Data App) Traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, but see a more than 50% probability of a hike before year-end. Market pricing dialed back slightly after Thursday’s comments from Trump on a potential deal. In other currencies: ING analyst Chris Turner noted that for the EUR/USD exchange rate, the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting may matter more than the ECB’s Thursday rate hike decision. The ECB has signaled further tightening, with markets speculating about another hike in July. However, he stated that because the market has already priced in an aggressive ECB tightening cycle and is reluctant to push that expectation higher, EUR/USD remains below 1.16. Moreover, markets see a possible Fed hike later this year. He indicated that unless the Fed pushes back against this expectation at its Wednesday meeting, the dollar should stay firm. (Jin10 Data App) On the data front: This week, from China, the data to be released include China’s May total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, May industrial value-added above designated size YoY, May share of Swift RMB in global payments, May total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), and May total electricity consumption (TBD). From the US, releases will include the US Fed interest rate decision (upper bound) as of June 17, June NY Empire State manufacturing index, May industrial production MoM, June NAHB housing market index, weekly change in ADP employment as of May 30, May housing starts annualized, May building permits total, May import price index MoM, May retail sales MoM, April business inventories MoM, May pending home sales index MoM, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and May Conference Board leading index MoM. From the UK, releases will include May CPI MoM, May retail price index MoM, April three-month ILO unemployment rate, May unemployment rate, May claimant count change, Bank of England rate decision as of June 18, June GfK consumer confidence index, and May seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. From the eurozone, releases will include April seasonally adjusted trade balance, April industrial production MoM, June ZEW economic sentiment index, May final CPI YoY, May final CPI MoM, and April seasonally adjusted current account. From Switzerland, releases will include the May consumer confidence index, May trade balance, and Swiss National Bank policy rate as of June 18. From Japan, releases will include the Bank of Japan target rate as of June 16 and May core CPI YoY. From Canada, releases will include April wholesale sales MoM and April retail sales MoM. Germany’s June ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany’s May PPI MoM, and the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision as of June 16 will also be published. Additionally, on June 15, China will see the maturity of 218.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan in six-month outright reverse repos, the National Energy Administration is set to release data on nationwide electricity consumption around the 15th of each month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will publish the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) will convene a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan (tentative), and China's refined oil products will enter a new pricing window. On June 18, the US Fed's FOMC will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections, and Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference. ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech. BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will announce its interest rate decision. RBA Governor Block will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision, and the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and minutes. The G7 Summit will open, running until June 17. In the Crude Oil Market: Last Friday, oil prices fell overnight in both markets, with US crude dropping 3.9% and Brent crude dropping 3.96%. Expectations for a US-Iran peace agreement continued to rise, putting oil prices under pressure and pulling them back. On a weekly basis, oil prices also declined, with US crude down 6.9% and Brent crude down 6.76%. In early trading in the US stock market, according to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Islamabad memorandum of understanding has never been this close to being reached, causing oil prices to plunge and US stock indices to extend intraday gains. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei stated that the two sides have now reached an understanding on most issues, and Iran is in the final stages of consolidating the MOU text. At midday in the US stock market, CCTV reported that Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif Shehbaz said the final agreed peace agreement text has been completed, and the two countries are moving forward to implement the next steps. Oil prices continued to decline. During the session, US stocks briefly fell after Trump criticized Iran for leaking agreement terms, but then Wall Street News mentioned that the UAE has agreed to unlock large-scale funds to Iran, with the first tranche of about $3 billion already transferred, further boosting optimism about reaching an agreement. (Wall Street News) US Energy Secretary Wright stated that currently about 7 million barrels of oil and fuel pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day, a volume that accounts for about half of the stranded cargo when the Iran conflict first erupted. Wright said that no Iranian crude can currently be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that if an agreement is reached, he expects all products will be able to pass freely through the Persian Gulf. Wright also noted that if no agreement is reached, the US military will resume transportation along the route. Wright stated that the US will not impose an oil export ban to curb oil prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright stated on Friday local time that US refiners can still absorb more Venezuelan crude oil. Wright said that Venezuela currently sends about half of its total exports of 1.2 million barrels per day to the US, and this proportion could rise in the coming months. Wright also said that Iran is currently not exporting any oil or refined products. During the Middle East conflict, the US has actively filled the gap in oil exports. (Jinshi Data APP) Triggered by the most severe supply disruption on record from the Iran conflict, US emergency stockpile crude exports have surged to an all-time high. Customs data compiled by Kpler Ltd. show that nearly 22 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) have been sold to overseas markets so far this year. This volume has already surpassed the previous record set four years ago. Although exports of crude from the US emergency stockpile are not uncommon, the scale of shipments this year shows that, as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggers supply disruptions, global markets are increasingly relying on US supplies to weather the crisis. For every three barrels of crude released from the emergency stockpile, roughly one barrel is exported. The volume headed overseas could be even higher, as the Trump administration continues to release the full promised 172 million barrels of crude. This is part of a larger effort by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to help buffer the impact of the Iran war on global energy markets. (Wallstreetcn)

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE tin contract fluctuates downward but spot trades turn quiet, as energy prices push up core inflation outside China]