PT Garuda Yamato Steel announced they expand their operational capacity to meet Indonesia’s demand. They do it by full commitment to increase safety regulations, higher Domestic Compenent Level (TKDN) around 90%, and high-spec earthquake resistant materials as mentioned by Tony Taiwan, President Director of PT Garuda Yamato Steel.

Chinese-backed steel investment is increasingly shifting from direct exports toward local production across Southeast Asia. New and planned projects in Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines could strengthen regional supply, but may also intensify competition if capacity growth continues to outpace demand.

In H1 2026, the HRC-rebar price spread was slightly higher than the same period of 2025. Since early 2026, the HRC-rebar spread of the most-traded contracts has fluctuated between 130-230 yuan, averaging 187 yuan, which is higher than the average of 128 yuan in the same period of 2025. Figure 1 – SHFE Most-Traded Contract HRC-Rebar Spread Movement This year, the HRC-rebar spread as a whole has been slightly higher than the same period last year. The main reason still lies in supply-demand fundamentals. In 2025-2026, the property sector continued to decline, and rebar supply and demand operated at low levels. Meanwhile, thanks to the resilience of China’s manufacturing demand and the active role of sheets & plates exports in diverting supply, the supply-demand imbalance for HRC was relatively lower than that for rebar against the backdrop of overall weak domestic steel demand. In H2 2026, Room for HRC-Rebar Spread to Widen Is Limited Looking ahead, starting from end-August, the off-season impact will gradually dissipate, and demand will gradually return to the peak season. At that time, demand from rebar-related property and infrastructure sectors and HRC-related manufacturing sectors is expected to improve. It is expected that in H2, both rebar and HRC prices may rebound slightly in tandem. However, considering that the overall steel supply-demand imbalance in China remains prominent, the room for the HRC-rebar spread to widen is relatively limited, and it may fluctuate between 180-230 yuan. Towards year-end, as temperatures drop in many regions, the pace of outdoor construction will continue to slow down, while certain manufacturing sectors still have expectations of a year-end demand push. At that time, the HRC-rebar spread may widen slightly, entering a range of fluctuation between 200-250 yuan.

In H1 2026, the HRC-rebar price spread was slightly higher than in the same period of 2025. From the start of 2026 to now, the most-traded HRC-rebar spread has fluctuated between 130-230 yuan, averaging 187 yuan, higher than the 128-yuan average in the same period of 2025. Figure 1: SHFE Most-Traded HRC-Rebar Spread Trend This year, the HRC-rebar spread has been slightly above the same period last year, with the main reason still lying in supply-demand fundamentals. From 2025 to 2026, the property sector continued to decline, keeping rebar supply and demand at low levels, while benefiting from resilient domestic manufacturing demand and active export diversion of sheets & plates, the supply-demand imbalance for HRC has been relatively less severe than for rebar against the backdrop of sluggish overall steel demand in China. In H2 2026, the room for the HRC-rebar spread to widen is limited. Going forward, starting from late August, the off-season impact will gradually fade, demand will return to peak season, and both rebar-related property & infrastructure sectors and HRC-related manufacturing sectors are expected to see improved demand. HRC and rebar prices are expected to rebound slightly in H2, but given the still prominent overall steel supply-demand imbalance in China, the room for the HRC-rebar spread to widen is relatively limited, with fluctuations likely in the 180-230 yuan range. Approaching year-end, as temperatures drop in many regions, the pace of outdoor construction continues to slow, while some manufacturing sectors still have expectations of a year-end demand sprint; the HRC-rebar spread may then widen slightly, entering a fluctuation range of 200-250 yuan.

June Price Review: In June, the monthly average price of GO silicon steel continued its previous rebound trend, with the price center continuing to rise. Despite relatively high supply pressure, the earlier trend of price bottom repair persisted, and the monthly average spot price steadily rose, reflecting that the market held good expectations for a market recovery. However, the oversupply pattern capped the upside room, and the price uptrend was relatively mild without any sharp surge. Fundamental Analysis: In July, GO silicon steel production is expected to stay high. In terms of production by variety, HIB and CGO output will remain stable, with high-grade HIB still accounting for the vast majority of production, while CGO output will hold steady within a narrow range, and the product mix will not undergo significant adjustments. Compared with historical production schedules, the July 2026 production schedule will continue the high-level range, with overall supply releases stable, and total GO silicon steel supply will remain relatively ample. Sustained high output has also become one of the core factors capping the upside room for GO silicon steel prices this round and keeping the supply-demand balance loose. In May, GO silicon steel consumption driven by new grid installations was at a relatively low level for the year. In terms of structure, thermal power and solar power remained the main consumption sources, with wind and hydropower demand providing supplementation, and nuclear power’s share staying low. Compared with the consumption structure of non-oriented silicon steel, thermal power and solar together accounted for 60%, making the demand structure characteristics on the power supply side clear. In May, the pace of new terminal installations slowed down, transformer enterprise order growth was limited, and direct demand for GO silicon steel was released slowly, coupled with sustained high production at steel mills earlier, supply-side pressure was hard to digest, which weighed on silicon steel prices, making it difficult to rely on grid installations for strong demand boost in the short term. July Price Outlook: Looking ahead to July 2026, on the supply side, China's GO silicon steel supply is expected to be basically stable. Mainstream steel mills’ production lines will operate stably with no concentrated maintenance plans, and the overall production load will remain stable. Meanwhile, mainstream steel mills such as Baowu will raise the base price of grain-oriented products by 300 yuan/mt in their July pricing policies. Coupled with production profits maintaining a reasonable range, overall production enthusiasm will be good, and high-grade resources will be steadily released. Demand side, favorable market support continues, with overall demand performing robustly. China’s “15th Five-Year Plan” UHV projects continue to start construction in a concentrated manner, with the construction pace steadily advancing. Demand for transformers supporting new energy grid connections is robust. At the same time, energy efficiency upgrades for home appliances and NEVs are gradually being implemented, keeping demand for high-efficiency motor retrofits high. Moreover, overseas power grid upgrade projects are advancing, and procurement demand for high-grade GO silicon steel remains stable. However, India’s launch of anti-dumping against China’s GO silicon steel may cause some resources to flow back into the domestic market, weighing on price increases. Cost side, with expectations of further shrinking steel mill profits and normalizing production restrictions driven by local environmental protection, hot metal output is expected to continue to decline. However, the off-season impact on the market is expanding, and the average HRC price in July is expected to decline further MoM from June, with the decline narrowing. Overall, SMM expects that GO silicon steel prices will present a consolidation pattern in July 2026.

June Price Review: The monthly average spot price of grain-oriented silicon steel continued its earlier rebound in June, with the price center rising further. Despite relatively high supply pressure, the earlier price bottom recovery trend persisted, as the monthly average spot price rose steadily, reflecting good market expectations for price recovery. However, the oversupply pattern suppressed upside room, and the price rise pace was relatively mild, without a significant surge. Fundamental Analysis: In July, grain-oriented silicon steel production stayed high. By product type, HIB and CGO output remained stable. High-grade HIB still accounted for the vast majority of production, while CGO output remained in a small stable range, with no significant adjustments in the product mix. Compared with historical production schedules, the July 2026 schedule remained at a high level, with overall supply release being stable, and total supply of grain-oriented silicon steel staying relatively sufficient. The persistently high output was also one of the core factors capping the upside room for this round of grain-oriented silicon steel price rises and maintaining a loose supply-demand balance. In May, the consumption of grain-oriented silicon steel driven by new power grid installations was at a relatively low level for the year. By structure, thermal power and solar energy remained the main consumption sources, with wind power and hydropower providing supplementary demand, while nuclear power's share stayed low. Compared with the consumption structure of non-oriented silicon steel, thermal and solar power together accounted for 60%, clearly defining the demand structure on the power supply side. In May, the pace of new end-user installations slowed down, transformer company order growth was limited, and direct demand for grain-oriented silicon steel was released slowly. Coupled with continuous high production at steel mills, supply-side pressure was difficult to digest, which suppressed silicon steel prices. In the short term, it is hard to rely on power grid installations to provide a strong demand boost. July Price Outlook: Looking ahead to July 2026, supply side, China's grain-oriented silicon steel supply is expected to remain basically stable. Production lines at major domestic steel mills are operating stably, with no centralized maintenance plans, and the overall production load is maintaining stability. Meanwhile, mainstream steel mills like Baowu have raised the base price of grain-oriented silicon steel by 300 yuan/mt in their July product pricing policy. Combined with production profits remaining within a reasonable range, overall production enthusiasm is good, and high-grade resources are being steadily released. Demand side, market positives are continuing to provide support, and overall demand performance is robust. China's "15th Five-Year Plan" ultra-high voltage projects are being intensively started, construction pace is steadily advancing, and demand for transformers supporting new energy grid connection is strong. Additionally, home appliance and NEV energy efficiency upgrades are gradually being implemented, demand for high-efficiency motor retrofits is staying high, and overseas power grid upgrade projects are advancing continuously, with stable procurement demand for high-grade grain-oriented silicon steel. However, India has initiated anti-dumping against China's grain-oriented silicon steel, which may cause some resources to flow back to the domestic market, capping price increases. Cost side, driven by expectations of continued shrinking steel mill profits and normalized local environmental protection-driven production restrictions, hot metal output is expected to decline further; however, with the off-season impact widening, the average price of hot-rolled coil in July is expected to continue to decline MoM from June, with the decline narrowing. Overall, SMM expects the grain-oriented silicon steel price in July 2026 to show a consolidation pattern. Data Source Statement: (The data in this report, other than publicly available information, are derived from public information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, customs import and export data, and various data released by trade associations and institutions), market communication, and SMM's internal database model. They are obtained through comprehensive analysis and reasonable inference by the research team, and are for reference only, not constituting any decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation rights of this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of this statement according to actual circumstances.

The global nickel and stainless steel markets remain focused on Indonesia's July RKAB quota revision window, with several Indonesian mining companies having submitted applications for increased allocations. The outcome remains uncertain: approval would help ease nickel ore supply constraints, while a slower-than-expected review process could disrupt ferronickel and stainless steel supply chains. High inventory levels continue to suppress market performance, with spot transactions staying sluggish and end-user demand remaining weak. With the quota review outcome still unclear, elevated inventories, and soft demand converging, the nickel and stainless steel markets are likely to maintain a cautious wait-and-see tone in the near term, with the trajectory hinging on Indonesia's quota policy direction and shifts in supply-demand fundamentals.

POSCO and KB Kookmin Bank signed an MoU to launch a steel supply chain finance service later this year through the MyPOSCO platform. The package will include preferential corporate loans, customized financial products, import-export finance consulting and trade insurance support, aiming to lower financing costs, improve liquidity and strengthen supply chain stability.

In yesterday's [SMM Analysis] EU Steel Tariff Wall Doubles to 50%: Reconstructing the New Quota System & In-Depth Analysis of 1A HRC, SMM deeply analyzed the brutal allocation logic of the EU's new 18.35 million tonnes quota. When the "50% tariff wall" and the "melting and pouring" rules completely block traditional tax-free export paths, the global steel supply chain is undergoing a forced reshuffle. Today, we shift our perspective to the ripple effects and macro-level forecasts of this storm.

South Korea-based Hyundai Steel has signed a master research agreement with Louisiana State University (LSU) to support technology development and workforce training for its planned $5.8 billion electric arc furnace-based integrated steel mill at RiverPlex MegaPark in Ascension Parish, Louisiana. Built jointly with POSCO, the facility is scheduled for completion in 2029 and will primarily produce automotive steel sheets for Hyundai Motor Group's US plants. The collaboration will leverage LSU's advanced research infrastructure, including the Louisiana Light Source synchrotron facility, focusing on low-carbon energy solutions and next-generation materials. This strategic partnership indicates Hyundai's commitment to securing localized green steel supply chains and skilled labor in the US, positioning the company to meet tightening North American automotive decarbonization targets.