[SMM Analysis] September-October Peak Season Expectations Struggling to Boost Market; Stainless Steel Mill Costs and Prices Are Inverted This week, stainless steel finished product prices and production costs pulled back in tandem, with stainless steel mills already falling into a pattern of losses. Based on 304 cold-rolled products, the profit margin calculated using current raw material costs this week was -0.11%, while using inventory raw material costs it was -0.49%. On the nickel-based raw material side, high-grade NPI prices further declined and pulled back this week. Although the traditional September-October peak season is approaching, stainless steel mills had already completed their stockpiling for the peak season in advance. Coupled with the recent weakening of stainless steel prices, steel mill profits continued to narrow, and procurement activity remained generally sluggish. Moreover, high-grade NPI lacked cost advantages compared to stainless steel scrap, with prices generally in the doldrums. As of Friday this week, the delivered duty-paid price of 10-12% grade Indonesia high-grade NPI to Chinese ports fell by 4.5 yuan/nickel unit to 1,131.5 yuan/nickel unit. This week, stainless steel scrap prices pulled back on a weak note. Dragged down by both the SS futures trading at low levels and the weakening of high-grade NPI, spot and futures prices moved downward in tandem. Although the peak season is approaching and steel mills have increased production schedules, narrower profit margins and cautious procurement attitudes, combined with tax invoice issues disrupting the market, meant that support from just-in-time demand had already failed. Under multiple negative factors, even though stainless steel scrap has cost advantages, it could hardly change the weak pattern, and short-term market conditions are expected to continue consolidating on a weak note. As of Friday this week, the ex-tax price of mainstream 304 off-cuts in the Shanghai area fell by 150 yuan/mt to 10,300 yuan/mt. On the chromium-based raw material side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained stable this week. Current high-carbon ferrochrome transactions remained sluggish, ...

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Stainless Steel Futures, Spot, and Raw Materials Weaken Simultaneously, Cost Advantages of Stainless Steel Scrap Cannot Offset Weak Transactions This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China declined, with the quotation range at 10,250-10,350 yuan/mt; prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in Foshan also fell, with the price range at 10,150-10,450 yuan/mt. From a raw material production cost perspective, the cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap is currently about 14,426.56 yuan/mt, while the production cost of fully using high-grade NPI reaches 14,885.76 yuan/mt, maintaining a certain cost price spread advantage between the two. This week, stainless steel scrap prices pulled back weakly overall. SS futures remained persistently low during the week, and the weak pattern in futures was continuously transmitted to the spot market, driving stainless steel finished product prices into the doldrums overall; the alternative raw material high-grade NPI also weakened and declined, forming a linked weak pattern among futures, spot, and raw materials. This directly dragged down stainless steel scrap prices, which also pulled back, and the overall market center continuously shifted downward. Even though stainless steel scrap still has economic advantages over high-grade NPI, cost support is limited and cannot reverse the market's weak trend. Overall, peak season expectations and production increases are difficult to offset multiple bearish pressures. Currently, the market is gradually approaching the traditional September-October peak season, and stainless steel mills' planned production in August has also increased, theoretically providing some support for rigid demand for stainless steel scrap. However, at this stage, stainless steel mills' smelting profits have narrowed significantly, their willingness to purchase and stockpile raw materials is generally weak, coupled with tight tax invoice issues in the industry...

This week, ferrous metals trended mostly higher, with performance varying slightly among varieties. Coking coal and coke were the strongest performers, while iron ore and finished steel posted relatively limited gains. During the week, safety supervision remained stringent, the pace of production resumptions at coal mines fell short of expectations, and structural shortages of coking coal grades further deepened, leading coking coal futures to continue rising. Coking plants suffered heavy losses...

[SMM Nickel Flash] On August 21, lump-sum transactions in the high-grade NPI market further faded, with market transactions mainly negotiated based on the average price. Pressure on the downstream side continued to intensify, and the price of 304 steel scrap also declined in tandem, further capping the procurement ceiling for NPI.

The steel scrap purchase price adjustment of Henan Anyang Steel was updated today. Please contact us if needed!

[India] Indian steel billet export offers strengthened to around $470/mt FOB India, but this price level is only heard in the market with no deals confirmed yet. Indian HRC offers to Vietnam rose to $520–525/mt CFR, but Vietnamese buyers were unwilling to accept this level, limiting market trading activity. The steel scrap market also remained firm, with European shredded scrap offers at $420–422/mt CFR Port Qasim. The above regional price signals supported market sentiment and compressed the room for downward price adjustments in the Indian market. Overall, seller price expectations and raw material prices are strengthening, but finished steel buyers continue to resist high prices, still limiting actual transaction activity.

India’s expanding steel sector rests on an uneven raw-material base: abundant domestic iron ore and greater use of locally sourced scrap contrast with a deepening dependence on imported coking coal. Imports surged 15.2% to 66.33 Mt in FY2025-26, and official projections indicate they could meet nearly 86% of a 161 Mt requirement by FY2030, leaving mills exposed to volatile seaborne prices despite improving domestic washery efficiency.

According to SMM statistics, total construction steel inventory this period was 8.3259 million mt, down 217,100 mt MoM (-2.54% MoM), shifting from increase to decline. Both mill inventory and social inventory destocked to varying degrees. Social inventory destocking accelerated notably as arrivals dropped. With the dock closure now lifted, subsequent concentrated arrivals of construction steel may lead to social inventory accumulation.

[India] As market sentiment strengthened, indicative export prices for Indian steel billet rose to $460/mt FOB India. Indicative prices for US/EU-origin shredded scrap were $420–422/mt CFR Qasim, UAE-origin HMS was $413–415/mt CFR Qasim, and Indian HMS was around $360/mt CFR India. However, scrap prices in the Indian market remain at indicative levels only, with no confirmed deals yet. The strengthening trend also extended to India’s domestic billet market, with prices rising in 16 of the 19 assessed regions, and the overall price range was $406–458/mt (INR 38,800–43,800/mt). Mumbai saw the largest increase, up $12/mt (INR 1,100/mt) to $448/mt (INR 42,800/mt); billet prices in Mandi Gobindgarh, Raipur, Chennai, and Durgapur were $444/mt (INR 42,400/mt), $414/mt (INR 39,600/mt), $458/mt (INR 43,800/mt), and $422/mt (INR 40,300/mt), respectively. India’s domestic HRC prices remained unchanged.

As of August 18, the operating rate of 50 EAF steel mills nationwide mainly producing construction steel was 31.71%, down 1.96% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 31.30%, down 2.17% WoW from the previous period; the daily average production of construction steel was 69,700 mt, down 4,800 mt WoW from the previous period.