Several Chinese Taiwan stainless steel producers reported strong May revenue growth on the back of market recovery and firming prices. Cold-rolled sheet producer Chien Shing led the sector with a revenue surge to NT$238 million, driven by downstream distributors rushing to restock as LME nickel prices strengthened. Ta Chen International posted NT$11.7 billion in May revenue, up 42.5% YoY, supported by expanded local production and strong pricing power at its Texas facility in the high-tariff US market. Stainless steel pipe maker Froch recorded a 37.9% YoY increase to NT$1.19 billion, underpinned by robust demand from domestic semiconductor plant expansions and inventory replenishment in Europe and the US.

European stainless steel prices are expected to continue rising over the coming weeks and months, with potential extensions to delivery times. The anticipated increases are driven by renewed rises in alloy surcharges and the imminent start of the EU safeguard successor measure on July 1, 2026. Adding to supply tightness, major EU stainless steel producers have reportedly already closed their order books, which could further extend lead times.

Marking the one-year anniversary of the US imposing a 50% Section 232 tariff on Canadian steel, the Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA) is urging the removal of the measure ahead of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review period beginning July 1, 2026. Prior to the trade conflict, Canada was the largest supplier of steel to the US, but shipments have plummeted by 60% in 2025 as a result of the tariffs. With Canada having already adopted strict trade policies to block global overcapacity from China, the CSPA argues the tariffs are unjustified and disruptive to the integrated North American supply chain, pushing for a collaborative "Fortress North America" approach instead.

【SMM Steel】The European Commission launched a four-week targeted consultation on June 4 running through July 2 on documentary evidence required to verify the country of melt and pour for steel imports. The consultation engages steel producers traders importers and industry associations. The resulting Implementing Act is scheduled for adoption by August 31 2026 and will take effect on October 1 2026. The melt and pour rule establishes steel origin based on where it was first melted and cast preventing circumvention via minimal processing in third countries. The EU Steel Regulation takes effect July 1 with duty-free import cap of 18.3 million tonnes and 50% tariff on volumes exceeding quotas.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Strength Lifted Spot Prices; Producers Held Prices Firm, Supporting Short-term Price Resilience SMM, June 2: SS futures rose sharply. Driven by the overall strength in non-ferrous metal futures, SS also rose. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 15,065 yuan/mt. Spot market side, driven by the sharp rise in SS futures, stainless steel spot prices were raised in tandem. Fueled by the sentiment to rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn, trading activity picked up. Although the market was currently in the off-season with slightly insufficient confidence, stainless steel producers still had the willingness to hold prices firm, and social inventory had not yet shown significant accumulation. Despite slightly sluggish downstream demand, short-term prices were expected to remain firm. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and probed higher. At 10:15 AM, SS2607 was quoted at 14,149 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the range of 275-725 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled untrimmed 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi rose 100 yuan/mt and in Foshan rose 25 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi rose 150 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi rose 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. This week, the stainless steel market saw futures edge up slightly while spot prices stabilized sideways. The futures-spot linkage was weak, and the market officially entered the traditional consumption off-season, with intensifying tug-of-war between longs and shorts on fundamentals. Traders had weak confidence in the market outlook...

Vietnam News Agency reported on May 25 that the World Steel Association (Worldsteel) recently released the list of the world's top 10 crude steel producing countries, with Vietnam making the list for the first time. Specifically, the World Steel Association estimated that Vietnam's crude steel (steel billet) production reached 2.1 million mt in April 2026, up 4% YoY. With this production volume, Vietnam surpassed Italy and entered the global top 10 steel producing countries for the first time. In the first four months of this year, Vietnam's cumulative crude steel production reached 8.5 million mt, up 8.4% YoY. According to information released by the Vietnam Steel Association, Vietnam's steel industry has achieved leapfrog development in both production scale and product variety.

According to statistics from SMM, China's output of high-carbon ferrochrome in May 2026 rose by 5.09% month-on-month and 23.85% year-on-year.

Indonesian stainless steel producers have cut export offer prices by a further $40/t on May 28, 2026, following an initial reduction in mid-May that broke a six-consecutive-month run of price increases. The cuts reflect a confluence of bearish pressures: the market has entered the traditional Q2 seasonal slowdown, with downstream buying interest subdued and buyers broadly in wait-and-see mode. At the same time, elevated mill and social inventories — built up during a period of high-margin production — are adding to downside pressure. With multiple headwinds converging, Indonesian producers have been forced into successive downward price corrections.

I. Background of China's Demand Decline ◼ In 2026, the global iron ore market is facing a critical turning point. As the Chinese government continues to strengthen steel capacity regulation and accelerate the industry's green and low-carbon transition, compounded by global trade barriers constraining export opportunities, China's steel production is expected to continue its YoY decline. As the world's largest iron ore consumer (absorbing approximately 75% of seaborne iron ore volume), China's weakening demand coincides with the supply side being about to see massive volume releases—represented by the phased commissioning of the Simandou project with a designed annual capacity of 120 million mt. With supply and demand moving in opposite directions, global iron ore prices will face significant downward pressure. Data source: SMM ◼ Against this backdrop, market attention naturally turns to the world's second-largest crude steel producer— India . As an emerging market in steel consumption, India is driven by infrastructure and real estate as its core growth engines, with downstream steel consumption growing rapidly, strongly propelling the robust development of crude steel production, with an average annual growth rate of 10.5% . Although countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico, and the US also maintain relatively fast development in their steel industries, over the next five years, the highest compound annual growth rate among these countries is only 5%, forming a notable gap with India. Data source: SMM II. Analysis of India's Iron Ore Supply-Demand Structure 2.1 India's Iron Ore Production Continues to Grow, but Structural Differentiation Is Evident ◼ 2.1.1 India Is Rich in Iron Ore Resources, Ranking Third Globally ◼ From a resource perspective, India is relatively rich in iron ore resources. According to the latest 2024 Iron Ore Resource Annual Report released by India's Ministry of Mines, India's iron ore resource reserves total 35.29 billion mt. Magnetite accounts for 33%, and hematite accounts for 67%. The predominant hematite resources are mainly distributed across Odisha, Goa, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Karnataka — these five states. Among them, Odisha in the east (production accounting for over half of the national total, grade 62%-65%) and Chhattisgarh (home to the large Bailadila mining area, with estimated total reserves of 3 billion mt and grade as high as 65%), as well as Karnataka in the south (primarily magnetite). Data source: SMM 2.1.2 India's Iron Ore Production Is Largely Concentrated in State-Owned Mines ◼ India's iron ore mining market combines state-owned and private enterprises. By company ownership, 36% of mines are controlled by state-owned enterprises, with the remaining 64% controlled by private enterprises. Representative state-owned mine enterprises include National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC) , Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL) , and Kudremukh Iron Ore Company (Kudremukh); representative private mine enterprises include Tata Steel Company, etc. ◼ In FY2025/26 (April 2025–March 2026), India's iron ore production is expected to reach 305–310 million mt, up approximately 7% YoY. Specifically: NMDC (state-owned producer) production reached 53.15 million mt, up 20.6% YoY; OMC production reached 40 million mt, up 11% YoY. Commercial mine production grew 15% to 190 million mt, while captive mine production declined 3% to 120 million mt. Production growth was primarily driven by commercial producers, and the supply structure is shifting, but growth is concentrated among a few large producers, meaning supply conditions are not balanced. Data source: WSA, SMM 2.1.3 India's New Iron Ore Project Capacity to Increase by 60 Million mt by 2030 ◼ Facing tight balance pressure from downstream steelmaking capacity expansion on supply and demand, industry leader NMDC is actively implementing a capacity expansion strategy. By accelerating mine development and technological upgrades, it is committed to enhancing supply-side flexibility and resilience to ensure continuous fulfillment of the widening rigid demand in the Chinese market. ◼ In addition to NMDC planning to increase capacity from 45 million mt to 67 million mt in FY2025/26, Tata Steel plans to invest 100 billion rupees (approximately $1.18 billion) over the next five years to expand mining capacity from 40 million mt to 55 million mt, and some private enterprises are also increasing iron ore capacity. Based on existing new iron ore capacity estimates, India's iron ore capacity is expected to increase by 60 million mt by 2030. Data source: SMM 2.1.4 Imbalanced Iron Ore Grade Structure — Both an Exporter and Importer ◼ According to the latest India resource report, although India has abundant iron ore reserves, the raw ore grade varies significantly. Currently, total explored reserves across India stand at 6.21 billion mt, of which high-grade iron ore accounts for 23%, medium-grade ore approximately 42%, and low-grade ore approximately 25%. Based on product classification of India's industry leaders, iron ore with grade above 60% accounts for 43% of production, while that below 60% accounts for approximately 57%, indicating that India's iron ore products are predominantly low-grade. However, India's major steel producers have high raw material requirements and prefer iron ore with grade above 60%. Therefore, iron ore below 60% grade is mainly exported to China, Japan, and other countries. The high-grade shortfall is mainly met through imports from Brazil, Oman, Australia, and other countries. Data sources: India Resources Report, WSA, SMM III. Key Constraints on India's Ability to Absorb China's Declining Iron Ore Demand 3.1 Vast Volume Gap Hard to Bridge, but Incremental Offset Can Provide a Floor ◼ In recent years, China's annual iron ore imports were approximately 1.2 billion mt, while India remains primarily an exporter, with annual exports of 23.56 million mt and imports of 12.31 million mt—its import scale being only 1% of China's. Even if India redirected all its export resources to meet its own demand, the absolute scale would still be two orders of magnitude smaller than China's demand decline. ◼ However, as China's iron ore demand declines and India's demand rises in the future, India's share in the global iron ore market will grow significantly. According to World Steel Association data, China accounted for 59% of global iron ore demand in 2025, while India accounted for only 10%; by 2030, China's share is expected to decline to 52%, while India's will rise to 15%, with particularly impressive growth momentum. The incremental demand from India will offset part of China's decline, providing a floor for iron ore prices. Data sources: WSA, SMM 3.2 Government Policies & Import Grade Restrictions Limiting Imports ◼ Based on India's iron ore import and export data, India's exports in 2025 declined 34% compared to 2024, while imports surged 129%. Despite the massive increase in imports and significant room for further growth driven by rising domestic demand, the Indian government has already introduced measures requiring priority fulfillment of domestic demand and reducing exports, which will to some extent suppress the growth potential of its iron ore imports. Meanwhile, the continued degradation of resource endowments at major global mines has intensified the structural shortage of high-grade ore, making the high-grade resources available for India's future imports relatively limited. Furthermore, as requirements for green steel production increase in and outside China, China's future demand for high-grade iron ore will also rise correspondingly, a trend that will further constrain India's iron ore import capacity. ◼ In the long run, if demand for high-grade ore continues to trigger structural tightness, the price spread between high-, medium-, and low-grade iron ore will continue to widen. Against this backdrop, India's own ore product mix may undergo significant adjustments, and its exports may continue to decline. Data sources: WSA, SMM 3.3 Green Steel Policies Driving Higher Electric Furnace Share, Iron Ore Demand Growth Under Pressure to Slow Down ◼ From a production process perspective, India's share of electric furnace steelmaking far exceeds China's, at approximately 30% in 2024. According to India's *National Steel Policy (2017)*, the country plans to raise its annual crude steel capacity to 300 million mt by FY2030 (ending March 31, 2031), with blast furnace-converter process capacity accounting for 60%-65% and electric furnace process capacity accounting for 35%-40%. As global carbon emission policies advance further, the share of green steel will increase significantly in the future, which aligns with the electric furnace capacity share target in India's National Steel Policy. Under this trend, the rising share of electric furnace steelmaking will, to some extent, curb the incremental demand for iron ore in India. Data sources: WSA, SMM IV. India's Iron Ore Demand Growth: Sufficient to Offset, Insufficient to Reverse ◼ According to the World Steel Association's forecast, global total iron ore demand is expected to maintain a modest growth trend from 2026 to 2030. China's iron ore demand is expected to decline by 8%, a reduction of approximately 113 million mt, while benefiting from continued expansion in steel production, India's total iron ore demand over the same period will grow by 55%, an increase of approximately 128 million mt. Meanwhile, based on estimates of global iron ore project capacity and commissioning pace, by 2030, approximately 300 million mt of new iron ore capacity is expected to be added globally on a cumulative basis. Overall, although India's demand growth is robust, it remains difficult to offset the large-scale supply increase on a global scale. However, the rise in India's demand can, to some extent, counteract the negative impact of declining demand from China, providing floor support for iron ore prices. ◼ In addition, as global carbon emission policies advance further, blast furnace capacity will gradually contract and crude steel production will trend downward, while the share of direct reduced iron (DRI) and electric furnace steelmaking is expected to continue rising. Against this backdrop, demand for high-grade iron ore will grow significantly in both China and India, which will further intensify the structural tightness in the high-grade ore market, thereby pushing up high-grade premiums. The price spread between high- and medium-grade iron ore is expected to widen notably in the future. Data source: SMM Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original article of this official account. For reprinting, whitelisting, cooperation, or other needs, please contact us. Without permission, it is prohibited to reprint, modify, use, sell, transfer, display, translate, compile, disseminate, or disclose the above content to third parties in any other form, or license third parties to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will pursue legal liability for infringement through legal means, including but not limited to demanding liability for breach of contract, return of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. Scan the QR code to get information for free

[SMM Steel] Vietnam officially became the world’s 10th largest crude steel producer after April 2026 output reached 2.1 million mt, up 4% y-o-y, according to worldsteel data. January-April crude steel production totaled 8.5 million mt, rising 8.4% y-o-y. Market participants said the growth reflected Vietnam’s rapid expansion in integrated steelmaking capacity and increasing production of higher-value steel products. Hoa Phat remained the country’s largest producer, contributing around 11 million mt in 2025 and targeting over 14 million mt of crude steel output in 2026.