War damage to Iran’s key steel mills threatens ~14 Mt of capacity, sharply reducing crude steel output and exportable supply. While domestic demand remains relatively stable, energy shortages and logistics disruptions amplify losses, tightening regional supply, supporting semi-finished steel prices, and reshaping trade flows.

【SMM Steel】Romanian investor UMB Steel received approval from the Competition Council to acquire ArcelorMittal Hunedoara's production assets for €12.5m, expanding its domestic steel presence. The deal covers the plant's industrial assets and related land. Market participants see it as a typical distressed asset acquisition, as the Hunedoara facility has been idle since Sep 2025 due to high energy costs and weak demand.

[SMM Steel] Vietnam’s construction steel prices remained stable at 14,700–15,430 VND/kg on April 13, with Hoa Phat Group holding CB240 and D10 CB300 at 15,430 VND/kg, while other mills maintained unchanged offers. Trading remained cautious with balanced supply-demand. Meanwhile, rebar futures in Shanghai fell 0.5% to 3,055 yuan/t, reflecting weaker demand expectations. Iron ore showed mixed trends, with Dalian prices steady at 776 yuan/t and Singapore prices slightly up to $104/t. In the short term, stable domestic prices contrast with softer regional sentiment, indicating cautious buying and limited upside momentum.

India recorded a 15% year-on-year decline in its exports of iron ore and pellets during the 2025-26 fiscal year, dropping to 25.78 million tons. This reduction was primarily caused by a decline in global iron ore prices, increased discounts on lower-grade fine ore in the seaborne market, and weaker demand from overseas steel producers. Concurrently, domestic absorption of raw materials increased significantly as India's crude steel production grew by 11%, leading to higher local sales prices for iron ore.

According to the draft National Steel Policy 2025, India plans to aggressively expand its steel production capacity to 400 million tons by the 2035-36 fiscal year, requiring approximately $183.41 billion in capital investments. The policy heavily focuses on decarbonization and raw material independence, aiming to reduce reliance on imported coking coal to 80% from the current 90%. Furthermore, the government intends to lower average steel mill emissions to 2 tons of carbon dioxide per ton of rolled steel, promoting gas-based production and scrap utilization.

[Yongsteel 2026 Period 4-2 Carbon Steel Price Adjustment] Yongsteel 2026 Period 4-2 construction steel price adjustment: rebar and wire rod both remained stable. Current prices were rebar at 3,450 yuan/mt, plain wire rod at 3,700 yuan/mt, and coiled rebar at 3,700 yuan/mt. Compared with Period 4-1, rebar received a supplement of 200 yuan/mt and wire rod a supplement of 270 yuan/mt. The electronic bank acceptance monthly discount rates for this period were 1.19‰ for Category I and II banks, 1.29‰ for provincial city commercial banks, and 1.49‰ for Category III and IV banks. [SMM Steel]

Macro tailwinds drive a 320 yuan recovery in SS2605, while high supply and weak spot demand limit the upside

This week, ferrous metals fluctuated downward, with raw materials declining significantly more than finished steel. Cost-side logic weakened further during the week. Mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran indicated they had entered the final stage of finalising negotiation details, causing overseas market crude oil to plunge and dragging down the coal sector. In the latter half of the week, rumors emerged that negotiations between China Mineral Resources and BHP would be announced next week, with iron ore leading the downward trend. On the finished steel side, inventories of the five major steel products continued to destock, maintaining a structure of both rising supply and demand. Spot market side, futures were weak, end-user purchasing enthusiasm was lukewarm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and some market arbitrageurs between spot and futures began to take profits...

Stainless steel spot prices rose this week, but production costs pulled back somewhat, narrowing the degree of cost-price inversion for stainless steel mills. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on same-day raw material prices, the full cost profit margin was -0.36% this week; calculated using inventory raw material costs, the margin was -0.83%. Nickel-based raw material costs: high-grade NPI prices remained in the doldrums this week. Stainless steel enterprises continued their earlier cautious purchasing strategy, and recent high-grade NPI transactions remained sluggish. Although high-grade NPI still had cost support, offer prices continued to edge lower under shipment pressure. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% fell 1.5 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,080 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market: stainless steel scrap prices remained generally stable this week. Although SS futures performed strongly, the transmission effect on stainless steel spot prices was limited, and scrap prices saw no significant boost. On the alternative raw material front, high-grade NPI was weak and ferrochrome prices declined, providing limited support for stainless steel scrap. The cost-effectiveness advantage of stainless steel scrap still existed, and rising stainless steel finished product prices also provided some support. However, strong cost pressure on steel mills, their strong desire to bargain down prices, and weak market demand collectively constrained price increases. Prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. As of this Friday, 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai remained stable, with the latest quote at approximately 10,150 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material costs: high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their downward trend this week. Although April stainless steel planned production remained at a high level, insufficient end-use demand support made it difficult for stainless steel prices to rise, which in turn weighed on market expectations. In addition, the production cut plans previously set by ferrochrome producers have had limited effect so far, and ferrochrome supply remained at a high level. Recent market transactions were overall sluggish, and producers had to slightly lower their offer prices under shipment pressure. As of this Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 75 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW, closing at 8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Strengthened, Stainless Steel Spot Market Ran Steadily SMM, April 10: SS futures strengthened and rose. SS futures extended the mid-week rally and further explored upward. As of the morning close, the most-traded contract was reported at 14,495 yuan/mt. Spot market side, despite SS futures exploring higher, the spot market remained stable. In addition, a major stainless steel producer released its guidance price today, which held steady MoM. Although intraday inquiry activity picked up somewhat and some low-priced resources decreased, actual transactions remained limited, and upward momentum for prices was insufficient. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and rose. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was reported at 14,470 yuan/mt, up 180 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area ranged from 50-250 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the Wuxi average price rose by 50 yuan/mt while the Foshan average price held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in the Wuxi area held steady; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotes remained flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. The stainless steel market was currently in the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April." In the short term, macro tailwinds helped restore confidence, and spot inquiry activity picked up. However, cautious sentiment among downstream end-users persisted, with procurement still driven by rigid demand. Acceptance of high-priced resources remained poor, and transactions relied on low-priced resources, with no significant volume increase overall. Futures side, the US-Iran conflict de-escalated this week, with both sides reaching a two-week ceasefire agreement and initiating negotiations. Macro...