South Africa's chrome ore exports totalled 2,403.95kt in June 2026, easing a marginal 0.90% month-on-month but still standing 38.86% higher than a year earlier — the latest data point in a trend that has defined the country's chromium sector for well over a year: raw ore volumes holding firm or growing, even as the health of domestic ferrochrome smelting remains under separate and distinct pressure. Figure 1: South Africa chrome ore export volume and destination breakdown, June 2026 A Moderating, but Still Elevated, Trend June's figure sits within a narrow band that has now persisted for three consecutive months. Exports measured 2.47 million tonnes in April and 2.43 million tonnes in May, before easing further to 2.404 million tonnes in June — a gentle, incremental decline of roughly 2.7% across the quarter. Read in isolation, that could look like softening demand. Read against the year-on-year comparison, it looks more like a plateau at an unusually high level: April, May and June 2026 volumes have all come in well above 2025's equivalent months, with year-on-year growth running as high as 43% in May and still near 39% in June. In other words, the market has not cooled — it has simply stopped accelerating after an extended period of outsized growth. China's Grip on the Trade Tightens Further China absorbed 67.61% of South Africa's total June export volume, reaffirming its position as by far the largest buyer of South African chrome ore. That concentration is consistent with — and arguably an intensification of — the pattern seen through 2025, when China absorbed a record 12.5 million tonnes of South African chrome ore across the full year, up 23.8% year-on-year, driven by high operating rates at Chinese ferrochrome smelters feeding the country's stainless steel industry. With Chinese buyers taking more than two-thirds of a single month's exports, South Africa's chrome ore trade is now more dependent than ever on the health of one downstream market: Chinese ferrochrome production and, by extension, Chinese stainless steel demand. That concentration cuts both ways — it has underpinned South Africa's export volumes through a period of domestic smelting weakness, but it also leaves the country's ore exporters unusually exposed to any slowdown in Chinese furnace utilisation or stainless steel output. Singapore and the UAE: Trading Gateways, Not End-Use Markets Singapore (7.85%) and the UAE (7.82%) rounded out the top three destinations in June, together accounting for close to a sixth of total export volume. Neither country is a meaningful chrome ore consumer or ferrochrome producer in its own right; both are established global commodity trading and logistics hubs. The UAE in particular is widely positioned — including in the government's own economic development literature — as a re-export and re-distribution gateway to the wider Middle East and African markets, leveraging its logistics infrastructure rather than domestic industrial demand. Singapore plays a broadly similar role in Asian commodity trading flows. Their appearance in the top three is therefore best read as a signal of trading and blending activity — ore passing through intermediary hubs before final delivery — rather than genuine new demand centres competing with China for South African tonnage. The Structural Story Underneath the Numbers The persistence of strong ore exports alongside continued weakness in South Africa's own ferrochrome smelting capacity reflects a structural realignment in the country's chromium value chain rather than a short-term fluctuation. High grid electricity costs, an ageing domestic furnace fleet, and persistent logistics bottlenecks have steadily eroded the competitiveness of local beneficiation, encouraging producers to route an increasing share of mined chrome toward raw-ore export instead. That dynamic was starkly illustrated at the company level in Merafe Resources' H1 2026 production report, released in late July, which showed attributable ferrochrome production collapsing 75% to just 28,000 tonnes on extended smelter suspensions at Wonderkop and Boshoek, while chrome ore production held almost steady at 425,000 tonnes — the ore side of the business continuing to perform even as the alloy side went largely idle. At the same time, South Africa's supply base for chrome ore is arguably broadening rather than narrowing, even as dedicated ferrochrome capacity struggles. Several major platinum group metals producers — Sibanye-Stillwater, Northam Platinum, Eastplats, and project developer Southern Palladium at its Bengwenyama development — have all disclosed plans or results this year showing deliberate growth in chromite by-product recovery from their UG2 orebodies, treating chrome increasingly as a strategic parallel revenue stream rather than an incidental credit. That PGM-sector diversification adds a further source of tonnage to the ore-export pool, reinforcing the same pattern visible in the national trade data: more ore reaching the market, less of it being converted to ferrochrome domestically before it leaves the country. A Policy Response Still Working Through the System This is not an unnoticed trend within South Africa. In June 2025, Cabinet approved a coordinated set of interventions specifically aimed at curbing this shift — including realigning electricity tariffs for the ferrochrome industry, placing chrome ore under export control requiring an ITAC-administered export permit, and developing a chrome ore export tax alongside expanded Special Economic Zone incentives for smelters. The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition subsequently opened the export-tax and permitting framework for public comment in November 2025. More than six months on, June's trade data — still showing raw ore exports running nearly 39% above year-ago levels — suggests that whatever combination of permitting and tariff relief has been implemented so far has not yet meaningfully redirected material away from export and back into domestic beneficiation. Whether the fuller export tax framework, once finalised, changes that balance is likely to be one of the more consequential open questions for South Africa's chrome value chain over the remainder of 2026. Bottom Line June's export data confirms that South Africa's chrome ore trade remains structurally tilted toward raw shipments rather than domestic beneficiation, with China's share of that trade deepening rather than diversifying, and Singapore and the UAE functioning as trading conduits rather than genuine alternative markets. With PGM producers adding to the ore supply base even as ferrochrome smelters remain constrained, and government's export-control measures still working through implementation, the divergence between chrome ore and ferrochrome trade flows looks set to remain a defining feature of South Africa's chromium sector through the rest of 2026.

[SMM Analysis] Cost Fluctuations Under News-Driven Disturbances, Stainless Steel Profits Narrowed Stainless steel product prices and production costs pulled back slightly in tandem this week, leading to narrowed overall smelting profits at steel mills. Based on 304 cold-rolling calculations, the profit margin for the week stood at 1.7% when calculated with current raw materials, and 1.84% with inventory raw materials. Stainless steel mills still retained some smelting profits. For nickel-based raw materials, high-grade NPI prices consolidated on a strong note this week. During the week, SHFE nickel and SS futures experienced wild swings amid news of Indonesia’s RKAB supplementary quota, which led to fluctuations in NPI prices. Downstream steel mills are currently in the off-season for consumption and showed limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials. Moreover, the price swings further amplified the cautious wait-and-see sentiment, keeping overall purchasing activity subdued. As of Friday, the price of Indonesia-origin high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade in China rose 1.5 yuan/mt per nickel unit, to 1,138 yuan/mt per nickel unit on a cif basis including tax. Stainless steel scrap prices remained largely stable this week. Affected by the Indonesian news, SS futures saw wild swings, while spot products pulled back slightly but showed notable resilience. High-grade NPI prices held up well, and with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, stainless steel scrap held steady, supported by its cost advantages. While expectations improved for better rigid demand amid the higher August production schedule, end-use demand in the off-season remained sluggish, steel mill profits were constrained, and the desire to bargain down prices persisted, limiting overall upside room. In the short term, prices are expected to maintain a broadly steady, consolidating pattern. As of Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts in Shanghai were unchanged at 10,450 yuan/mt. For chrome-based raw materials, high-carbon ferrochrome prices pulled back slightly this week. Although the market expects stainless steel output to increase in August...

Vietnam’s 10 largest steel and building-material enterprises are expected to contribute a combined VND 19.04 trillion to the 2025 state budget, down 2.9% year on year but up 40.6% from 2023. Hoa Phat Group leads with VND 12.95 trillion, accounting for about 68% of the Top 10 total, followed by Hoa Sen Group at VND 1.23 trillion, VICEM at VND 1.11 trillion and VNSTEEL at VND 927 billion. Steelmakers accounted for 85.5% of the total, with VAT on imported goods representing a major source of payments for several companies. In contrast, resource taxes, land-related payments and environmental fees made up a significant share of VICEM’s contribution. The figures also reflect diverging market conditions across steel segments: Vietnam’s finished steel output rose 9.6% in 2025, while sales increased 8.7%, supported mainly by domestic demand. Construction steel sales grew 12% and HRC sales rose 28%, while galvanized and cold-rolled steel remained under pressure from weaker exports.

August rebar planned production at 7.2229 million mt, down 96,100 mt or 1.31% from July actual output. August wire rod planned production at 3.0722 million mt, down 120,800 mt or 3.78% from July actual output. Export planned production of long products at sampled steel mills in August was 590,000 mt, down 63,000 mt MoM, with billet export planned production at 320,000 mt, down 30,000 mt MoM.

India's steel market presented a mixed picture in July, with domestic consumption continuing to outpace production while exports rebounded sharply, nearly matching imports for the month. However, strong import volumes earlier in the fiscal year kept the country a net importer through April-July.

Tata Steel's June-quarter results showed stronger realised prices and a richer product mix helped offset lower steel volumes, highlighting the growing role of value-added products and downstream integration in supporting margins beyond benchmark HRC prices.

India's second-largest steelmaker, Tata Steel, reported first-quarter FY2026 operating results, with domestic crude steel production increasing by more than 10% YoY to 5.76 million tonnes, while steel deliveries rose nearly 9% YoY to 5.17 million tonnes, driven by higher output at its Jamshedpur and Kalinganagar plants. Meanwhile, elevated coking coal and iron ore prices pushed material costs up 12% year on year. The higher level of steel production indicates that Indian steel demand remains resilient, providing continued support for metallurgical coal consumption. Despite elevated coking coal costs, Tata Steel maintained strong production, suggesting that Indian steelmakers are unlikely to significantly reduce metallurgical coal procurement in the near term. In addition, the company has approved a 4.8 million tonnes per annum steelmaking capacity expansion at its subsidiary Neelachal Ispat Nigam, which could further support metallurgical coal demand over the longer term.

India's Jindal Steel increased steel production by 14.8% year on year to 2.4 million tonnes in Q1 FY2026/27, while steel sales rose 17.4% to 2.2 million tonnes, supported by strong domestic demand. Consolidated revenue increased 25.8% year on year to INR155 billion as higher production and sales volumes boosted operating performance. The continued expansion in steel output suggests sustained blast furnace operations, providing near-term support for coking coal demand.

Higher domestic steel prices, an improved product mix and increased iron ore sales helped SAIL offset lower production and elevated coking coal costs in Q1 FY2026-27. While planned maintenance weighed on output, stronger realizations drove margin expansion, with management expecting raw material costs to ease in the coming quarter.

Stronger HRC realizations and a higher share of value-added steel helped Jindal Steel offset lower sequential production and rising raw material costs in Q1FY27. As India's steel demand continues to outpace global markets, the company's earnings outlook will depend on capacity ramp-up, domestic steel prices, coking coal costs and import competition.