[Sheets & Plates] Today, export prices of hot-rolled coil (HRC) and other sheets & plates rose $1-2/mt DoD, with HRC transaction prices at $487-492/mt. China’s futures market rose today, and traders reported that transactions were not as good as in the previous few days, while order intake at steel mills also fell short of expectations.

On July 23, total rebar inventory this week was 675.88 mt, WoW +31,400 mt, up 0.47% WoW, and up 31.32% on a Chinese calendar YoY basis; total wire rod inventory was 1.55 million mt, WoW +27,800 mt, up 1.83% WoW, and up 43.07% on a Chinese calendar YoY basis.

As of July 21, the operating rate among 50 EAF steel mills mainly producing construction steel nationwide was 36.62%, up 0.04 percentage point WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 36.50%, down 0.06 percentage point WoW; daily average production of construction steel stood at 81,300 mt, down 100 mt WoW.

According to SMM statistics, both mill inventories and social inventories saw inventory buildup to varying degrees. Total construction steel inventories reached 8.4379 million mt, up 41,800 mt WoW, or up 0.50% WoW, with the pace of inventory buildup continuing to slow.

[Bigger Logistics Reset Underway — Afrexim Loan, China-Backed Mega Financing and Reopened Mozambique Rail Line Reinforce Zimbabwe's Chrome Export Corridor] 1. NRZ is finalizing a US$115 million loan from Afreximbank to rehabilitate rail infrastructure and refurbish locomotives, announced in early June. 2. Government is exploring mineral-backed financing with China — including talks with China Railway — for an estimated US$34 billion national transport-and-logistics modernization plan, modelled on the DRC's Sicomines resource-for-infrastructure deal; Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube confirmed the discussions at the World Economic Forum in Dalian last month. 3. The Mozambique–Zimbabwe rail line has reopened after a four-month closure, alongside ongoing NRZ recapitalization under a three-phase turnaround strategy — measures that directly cut chrome and ferrochrome export lead times to Asian, European and American stainless-steel mills. 4. The Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe has singled out Zimasco and Afrochine (Tsingshan) to lead ferrochrome production growth, with both operators already running material volumes through the Maputo-bound rail network.

This investment in Jharkhand state by 2028 to improve further capacity expansion especially towards low-emission steel production. This steel mill later on will increase production capacity in India from 27.35 million tonnes to 40 million tonnes.

Swedish steelmaker SSAB is continuing the construction of fossil-free steel mill in Lulea after being stopped because same safety concerns. However, to keep the safety concern, SSAB and trade union developed a newly established safety procedures together with technical experts.

[SMM Daily Brief Commentary on Coking Coal and Coke] Coking coal market: Low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen was quoted at 2,020 yuan/mt. In terms of coking coal, production suspensions and cuts at Shanxi coal mines have been recurring. Output at most mines remains constrained, but some steel mills have initiated the first round of coke price cuts, and market sentiment has pulled back. Failed bids increased in the online auction market for coking coal, and some blending coking coal with relatively high prices proactively adjusted prices downward. In the short term, the coking coal market will remain in the doldrums. Coke market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry-quenched) was 2,090 yuan/mt. In terms of news, on the 22nd, mainstream steel mills lowered their coke purchase prices, with wet-quenched down 50 yuan/mt and dry-quenched down 55 yuan/mt. In terms of supply, with the first round of price cuts implemented, most coke producers are operating at a loss and show average production enthusiasm. However, downstream wait-and-see sentiment is relatively strong, coke producers’ shipments have slowed, and inventory pressure continues to increase. Demand side, steel mills’ hot metal production fell significantly, and the weak trend in end-use consumption is difficult to reverse. Steel prices have continued to weaken, and steel mills are controlling the pace of coke arrivals, showing a strong willingness to pressure coke prices. Overall, coke producers are facing sluggish shipments, and cost support for coke has weakened. Market sentiment has turned colder, and in the short term the coke market may remain in the doldrums, with coke prices still expected to face further price cuts. [SMM Steel]

Iron ore concentrates prices in the Tangshan area are relatively stable, with 66% grade iron ore concentrates, dry basis delivered price, tax included, at 980-985 yuan/mt. Local mines and beneficiation plants are mostly producing normally as planned. In the Chengde area, mines and beneficiation plants were previously affected by heavy rainfall. Recently, most local open-pit iron mines have resumed normal production, but underground mines and beneficiation plants, as well as a few individual large open-pit mines, are still suspended, and overall local resources remain tight. Demand side, local steel mills are expected to have some maintenance, and overall hot metal output may decline, weakening support for iron ore demand, and the local market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. Overall, local iron ore concentrates prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. [SMM Steel]

Iron ore futures trended weaker today. The most-traded DCE I2609 contract closed at 739.5 yuan/mt, down 1.00%. Spot prices at Qingdao Port fell about 4-8 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was moderate, and steel mills were in a rather wait-and-see mood. As of now, spot transaction volumes were moderate. According to the latest SMM survey, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate among sample steel mills was 89.49%, down 0.50 percentage point WoW. Their daily average hot metal output was 2.4247 million mt, down 13,500 mt WoW. Although the intensity of environmental protection-driven production restrictions fell short of expectations, hot metal output is still expected to continue its downward trend. Meanwhile, environmental protection and safety inspection factors have not yet subsided, and some steel mills may arrange temporary maintenance. Overall, blast furnace hot metal output is likely to continue declining in the near term, and iron ore demand is expected to remain weak. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to consolidate with a bearish bias in the near term. [SMM Steel]