[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] Supply side, costs increased further, losses at most coke producers widened, and willingness to push for a coke price hike strengthened, but a coke price hike is expected to be implemented, while coke production remained stable. Demand side, finished steel shipments improved somewhat, steel inventories began to decline, steel mills became more willing to produce, and daily average hot metal production continued to increase, raising acceptance of higher coke prices. In summary, coke fundamentals have turned tighter, and the coke market may remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term, with a coke price hike expected to be implemented.

Outlook: Prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in Shanghai are expected to operate steadily with a slight upward bias next week.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. There were no significant macro disturbances during the week. The pullback in the US dollar index led to a rebound in nonferrous metals and the A-share market, but ferrous metals did not follow the trend noticeably. Instead, pressure from bears weighed on finished steel prices. On the spot market, most markets have already entered a holiday shutdown. Spot prices remained basically stable, while market transactions contracted sharply...

Conclusion: The supply-demand imbalance has accumulated to a relatively limited extent, with relatively small room for further deterioration MoM from November. In the short term, focus on the most-traded hot-rolled coil futures contract at 3,230–3,330. In December, coupled with rising macro expectations, steel prices may have room to rise before the meeting, but the upside is likely to be limited, mainly due to persistent destocking pressure for sheets & plates and relatively weak sales performance in the market, which may also constrain a smooth price increase.

Nickel Ore Prices Remain Stable, NPI Price Keeps Decreasing

This week, the ferrous metals series showed a divergent trend, with ore prices initially strong then weakening, coking coal and coke prices fluctuating rangebound, the most-traded rebar contract moving in a volatile pattern, and the most-traded HRC contract performing in the doldrums. On the news front, early in the week, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that China's steel exports in August 2025 reached 9.51 million mt, down 326,000 mt MoM, a decrease of 3.3% MoM. From January to August, cumulative steel exports totaled 77.49 million mt, up 10.0% YoY, with cumulative exports still higher than the same period last year, indicating strong export resilience...

SMM's monthly production data for base metals is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals for industry chain professionals and investors, and providing a clearer grasp of the future direction of the metals market.

SMM data showed the most-traded SS contract pulled back this week. As of 10:30 on August 29, the SS2510 contract was quoted at 12,790 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt WoW. From a macro perspective, on August 26, the US Commerce Department issued its final ruling that corrosion-resistant stainless steel imports from 10 countries and regions (including Taiwan, China and Vietnam) were being dumped, involving $2.9 billion. If the ITC subsequently confirms injury, formal anti-dumping duties will be imposed (with rates as high as 67.81% for some companies). This move intensified global trade frictions, dampening stainless steel export demand expectations and particularly impacting industry chain stability in affected regions. Fed Chairman Powell's dovish remarks initially boosted commodities, but the market remained cautious about a September interest rate cut, amplifying price volatility amid macro uncertainties. The central bank's net injection of medium and long-term liquidity (via reverse repo operations and MLF) this week supported infrastructure investment expectations but provided limited short-term demand boost for stainless steel. Fundamentally, despite approaching the traditional September-October peak season, the stainless steel market has shown gradual improvement with recovering downstream demand, as social inventory declined for eight consecutive weeks. However, current market dynamics remain significantly influenced by macro factors and futures, resulting in volatile trading activity and prices. With the peak season nearing, stainless steel inventories continued to decrease, while prices of raw materials nickel, chromium, and molybdenum all rose. Additionally, expectations for a September US Fed interest rate cut have fostered relative optimism. Yet, planned stainless steel production in September is expected to increase further, and macro policy uncertainties persist, requiring the market to balance the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers with policy variables. The future trajectory will depend on the pace of demand recovery and the actual materialization of macro tailwinds.

RKAB Approval Approaching to an End, NPI Prices Keep Rising

SMM's monthly production data for base metals is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals for industry chain professionals and investors, and providing a clearer grasp of the future direction of the metals market.