[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] Supply side, costs increased further, losses at most coke producers widened, and willingness to push for a coke price hike strengthened, but a coke price hike is expected to be implemented, while coke production remained stable. Demand side, finished steel shipments improved somewhat, steel inventories began to decline, steel mills became more willing to produce, and daily average hot metal production continued to increase, raising acceptance of higher coke prices. In summary, coke fundamentals have turned tighter, and the coke market may remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term, with a coke price hike expected to be implemented.

Outlook: Prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in Shanghai are expected to operate steadily with a slight upward bias next week.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. There were no significant macro disturbances during the week. The pullback in the US dollar index led to a rebound in nonferrous metals and the A-share market, but ferrous metals did not follow the trend noticeably. Instead, pressure from bears weighed on finished steel prices. On the spot market, most markets have already entered a holiday shutdown. Spot prices remained basically stable, while market transactions contracted sharply...

★Macro★ 01 ★★★ PBOC Conducts CNY500 Billion MLF Operation on May 23 with a One-Year Tenor The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, it would conduct a CNY500 billion Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on May 23, 2025 (Friday), with a one-year tenor, through fixed-quantity, interest-rate tendering, and multiple-price bidding. 02 ★★★ US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 227,000 Last Week The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 227,000 last week, the lowest level since the week ending April 19. Economists had forecast 230,000 claims, compared with 229,000 in the prior week. 03 ★★★ Global Crude Steel Production Down 0.3% YoY in April 2025: World Steel Association Global crude steel production fell 0.3% YoY to 155.7 million mt in April 2025, according to data from the World Steel Association. ★Industry and Downstream Sectors★ 01 SMM Inventories of Ten Ports According to an SMM survey, the total inventories at 10 ports tracked by SMM stood at 104.28 million mt on May 22, down 1.19 million mt WoW. Destocking was more pronounced for coarse fines and lump ore, while there was a slight inventory buildup for concentrate fines and pellets. 02 [SMM Weekly HRC Balance] Production Declines Again, HRC Inventory Drawdown Accelerates This Week This week, maintenance at some steel mills in north and east China affected production. HRC production declined slightly. According to SMM's statistics this week, the social inventory of HRC at 86 warehouses (large sample) nationwide was 3.1196 million mt, down 176,600 mt WoW (-5.36% WoW, -22.31% YoY). The nationwide social inventory continued to decline this week, with the rate of decline expanding. By region, destocking was more pronounced in the east and north China markets than in the south and central China markets, as well as in north-east China. 03 SMM Summary of Construction Steel Inventories Nationwide On May 22, SMM's nationwide total rebar inventory was 5.6865 million mt, down 141,900 mt WoW (-2.43% WoW, -21.16% YoY). The nationwide total wire rod inventory was 1.1285 million mt, down 125,000 mt WoW (-9.97% WoW, -31.07% YoY). 04 China's Cumulative Installed Power Generation Capacity Nears 3.5 Billion kW in First Four Months Statistics released by the National Energy Administration show that as of the end of April, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.49 billion kW, up 15.9% YoY. Among them, the installed power generation capacity of solar energy was 990 million kW, up 47.7% YoY; the installed capacity of wind power was 540 million kW, up 18.2% YoY. From January to April this year, the investment completed in power supply projects by major power generation enterprises nationwide was 193.3 billion yuan, up 1.6% YoY; the investment completed in power grid projects was 140.8 billion yuan, up 14.6% YoY. 05 The number of land plots proposed to be acquired using special bonds announced by various regions approached 3,000 The pace of announcing the use of special bonds for land acquisition has significantly accelerated across regions. According to incomplete statistics from China Index Academy, as of May 20, the number of idle land plots proposed to be acquired using special bonds announced nationwide approached 3,000, with a total area exceeding 133 million m² and a total amount exceeding 350 billion yuan. ★Other Hot Topics★ ⭕ UK's 30-year Treasury bond yield rose to its highest level since April 9, reaching 5.579%, up 6 basis points on the day. ⭕US Fed Governor Waller stated that if tariffs decrease, the US Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. ⭕ [Han Zheng Attends and Delivers a Speech at the Opening Ceremony of the 2025 Global Trade and Investment Promotion Summit] Vice President Han Zheng attended and delivered a speech at the opening ceremony of the 2025 Global Trade and Investment Promotion Summit in Beijing. Han Zheng stated that President Xi Jinping has pointed out the need to actively promote the deep integration of the internet, big data, artificial intelligence, and the real economy, accelerate the development of new quality productive forces, and provide new momentum for high-quality development. Currently, a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is advancing, with the widespread application of new industries and technologies represented by the digital economy and artificial intelligence, which are changing the global trade and investment landscape and presenting significant development opportunities and broad prospects. As the era of digital intelligence accelerates, we must work together to actively promote global trade and investment transformation and foster common development. ⭕[Anhui Initiates Level IV Flood Control Emergency Response in Eight Cities] According to forecasts from Anhui province's meteorological department, from May 22 to 23, there will be heavy rain in Hefei, Lu'an, Wuhu, Xuancheng, Tongling, Chizhou, Anqing, Huangshan, and other cities, with torrential rain in some areas of Lu'an, Chizhou, Anqing, and Huangshan, accompanied by short-term heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and gales. In accordance with the provisions of the "Anhui Provincial Flood Control and Drought Relief Emergency Plan," the provincial flood control headquarters decided to initiate a Level IV flood control emergency response in Hefei, Lu'an, Wuhu, Xuancheng, Tongling, Chizhou, Anqing, and Huangshan at 16:00 on May 22. ⭕[Jiangxi Initiates Flood Warning Response and Level IV Emergency Response for Major Meteorological Disasters] The Jiangxi Provincial Meteorological Service initiated a Level IV emergency response for major meteorological disasters in response to the heavy rainfall weather process. From the daytime of May 22 to 23, Jiangxi Province experienced a significant convective precipitation weather process from north to south. Heavy rainfall occurred in parts of the central and northern regions, with torrential rain in localized areas. Some regions were also accompanied by strong thunder and lightning, thunderstorm gales of level 8 to 10, and short-term heavy rainfall. The accumulated rainfall was 40 to 70 millimeters in northern and central-northern Jiangxi, exceeding 120 millimeters in localized areas; it was 10 to 30 millimeters in southern central Jiangxi and southern Jiangxi, with 40 millimeters in localized areas. At 10:00 on May 22, the Jiangxi Provincial Meteorological Observatory issued a blue alert for heavy rainfall. ⭕[AmCham China President: US Companies Will Continue to Invest in China] The 2025 Global Trade and Investment Promotion Summit was held in Beijing. Michael Hart, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in China (AmCham China), stated that China, as the world's second-largest economy, still has significant room for economic growth in the next decade and will continue to focus on innovation. US companies will continue to invest in China and participate in its economic growth and innovation. Regarding tariff issues, Hart mentioned that the new US administration's tariff policies have attracted global attention. However, the tariff war is like a "test of facts," proving that China is an important commodity market for the US and a crucial supply source for US goods. Maintaining supply chain resilience will benefit both countries. ⭕ [TISCO Group and Pingmei Shenma Group Sign Strategic Cooperation Agreement] On May 19, TISCO Group and Pingmei Shenma Group held a signing ceremony for a strategic cooperation agreement. Wu Xiaodi, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of TISCO Group, Gao Feng, Member of the Party Committee Standing Committee and Deputy General Manager of TISCO Group, Li Yanhe, General Manager of Pingmei Shenma Group, and Wang Anle, Deputy General Manager of Pingmei Shenma Group, along with relevant department and unit leaders from both sides, attended the ceremony. ⭕ [Ansteel Group Mining Company Controls 8.8 Billion Tons of Iron Ore Resources] Recently, Ansteel Steel stated in an investor relations activity that, facing the severe situation of a weak and fluctuating decline in the steel market, the company has worked hard to expand the market, continuously adjusted product mix to enhance efficiency, tapped into internal potential, significantly improved its sales profit margin, substantially reduced losses across all units in the steel segment, and significantly enhanced production line efficiency and market competitiveness. By implementing the concept of "accounting-based operations" and through measures such as strengthening benchmarking and potential tapping, as well as improving operational efficiency, the company reduced the cost per ton of steel across the entire process by 102 yuan compared to the previous year, reduced the cost of externally purchased energy per ton of steel by 10%, and reduced the cost of pig iron by 12% compared to the previous year. On the procurement side, the company deepened cost-effective and collaborative procurement, continuously reducing the consumption cost of materials per ton of steel. In the first quarter of 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was -554 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.55%. ⭕ [Shuohuang Railway Marks 25th Anniversary of Operation with Cumulative Freight Volume Exceeding 5.21 Billion Tons] As of May 18, the Shuohuang Railway marked its 25th anniversary of operation, having completed 50,469,820,000 mt of coal transportation and 1,626,740,000 mt of non-coal transportation, with a cumulative cargo transportation volume exceeding 5.21 billion tons, achieving 9,131 consecutive days of safe production and operation. ⭕ [Angang Lianzhong Obtains "Pass" to Japan's High-end Market] Recently, Angang Lianzhong successfully passed the JIS certification, marking the company's acquisition of the "pass" to Japan's high-end market and laying a solid foundation for further enhancing the international competitiveness of its products. ⭕ [Chongqing Iron & Steel Achieves Successful Trial Run of Full-Length Rolling Process for Heavy Plate Production Line] Recently, Chongqing Iron & Steel successfully completed the first trial run of the full-length rolling process for its heavy plate production line, achieving a one-time successful trial run of 30mm-thick sheets & plates! This represents a significant breakthrough for Chongqing Iron & Steel in the field of medium-thickness plate production technology, injecting strong momentum into the company's efforts to explore the high-end product market and enhance its core competitiveness! ⭕[Successful Commissioning of the Upgrade Project for the Electric Control System of the No. 3 Flying Shear at Nanchang Fangda High-speed Wire Rod Mill] Recently, the upgrade project for the electric control system of the No. 3 flying shear at Nanchang Fangda High-speed Wire Rod Mill, designed, supplied, and commissioned by Jingcheng Digital Technology Co., Ltd., was officially commissioned. Through independent technological innovation, the project successfully resolved technical challenges that had plagued the production line for over a decade, helping the enterprise achieve new breakthroughs in cost reduction and efficiency enhancement. ⭕ [Shagang's HRC Reheating Furnace Upgrade Project Starts Production] On May 17, the No. 2 reheating furnace of the HRC reheating furnace upgrade project for Workshop 1 at Shagang, implemented by WISDRI Southern (Hubei) Heavy Industries Engineering Co., Ltd. (WISDRI Southern Refractory & Thermal Engineering Co., Ltd.) on an EPC basis, was successfully ignited, marking the beginning of the furnace drying stage.

This week, the ferrous metals series saw a narrow pullback after a rebound from low levels. Among them, iron ore outperformed other ferrous metals, while coke showed weaker performance. On the macro front, the China-U.S. economic and trade talks in Geneva on May 12 indicated a 90-day suspension of the 34% reciprocal tariffs imposed on April 2, 2025, with a 10% portion remaining in place during the suspension period. This temporary tariff relief provides greater possibilities and more ample room for China to rush exports in the short term. However, from a medium and long-term perspective, the easing of the tariff environment is not yet a permanent solution, as the current 30% tariff remains higher than those imposed on other countries. In the spot market, influenced by improved market sentiment, both the spot prices and trading volumes of hot-rolled coil and rebar saw improvements...

[SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary] In the spot market, the rise in futures prices has driven an improvement in market sentiment, with increased trading at lower prices and improved speculative demand. However, the spot market in some regions has struggled to keep up with the price increases. On the news front, the China-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks concluded with the issuance of a joint statement. China and the US agreed to reduce tariffs over the next 90 days, marking substantial progress in the high-level economic and trade talks between the two countries, with a significant reduction in bilateral tariff levels, which has significantly boosted market sentiment. On the fundamental side, as we enter May, downstream demand will be impacted to some extent by the off-season, and it is expected that the apparent demand for HRC will pull back MoM in May. In terms of supply, the daily average production schedule for HRC in May will decrease slightly MoM compared to April, which is slightly better than previously expected. In addition, with the consensus reached in the China-US tariff negotiations, the short-term HRC prices are expected to break through slightly upwards, driven by favourable news. In the medium and long-term, with the off-season demand expected to decline, and after the tariff favourable news has been fully priced in, if there is a lack of further favourable macro front stimulus, the price center of HRC will still trend downwards.

Today, DCE iron ore futures surged significantly, with the most-traded contract I2509 closing at 718.5, up 3.16% for the day. Traders showed good enthusiasm for selling, and speculative transactions increased slightly. Steel mills remained cautious and adopted a wait-and-see attitude, purchasing as needed. The market transaction atmosphere was average. The mainstream transaction prices of PB fines in Shandong were around 765-773 yuan/mt, up 15-18 yuan/mt from last Friday. The transaction prices of PB fines in Tangshan were around 780-785 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from last Friday. Last week, the total global iron ore shipments reported by SMM were 31.62 million mt, down 740,000 mt WoW, a slight decrease of 2.3%. Among them, Australia's shipments were 17.46 million mt, down slightly by 8.3% WoW. Brazil's shipments were 7.75 million mt, up slightly by 13.2% WoW. Shipments from non-mainstream mines were 6.42 million mt, up slightly by 11.6% WoW. The total iron ore arrivals in China reported by SMM were 26.81 million mt, up 1.51 million mt WoW, an increase of 5.96%. There was a slight YoY increase of 14%. The supply pressure on iron ore was relatively small, and inventory may continue to decline slightly. In addition, the results of today's Sino-US tariff negotiations exceeded expectations, boosting market sentiment and driving ore prices to surge significantly. In the later stage, focus will be on the crude steel production reduction policy and the accumulation of major steel inventories. 》Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

[Copper] On Tuesday, SHFE copper fluctuated above the MA250 daily moving average. Today, spot copper returned to 78,035 yuan, with Shanghai copper premiums expanding to 205 yuan and Guangdong premiums at 210 yuan. Pre-holiday stockpiling was relatively active. An overnight widespread power outage in the Iberian Peninsula heightened market concerns about European power grid security, with no confirmed cause yet identified. Some speculate it may be related to the large-scale integration of renewable energy into the grid. Additionally, the ICSG adjusted the 2025 refined copper balance sheet, reducing the expected increase in copper concentrate production from October last year, maintaining the view of a supply surplus for the year. The market is mainly concerned about consumption performance after mid-May, and with a 90-day exemption from reciprocal tariffs for ASEAN, there are significant concerns about demand in H2. Hold short positions above 78,000 for the 2507 contract. [Aluminum and Alumina] Today, SHFE aluminum fluctuated rangebound. Spot aluminum in east China was on par with futures, while discounts in south China widened by 15 yuan to 75 yuan. Over the past week, social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum billets continued to decline rapidly, dropping by 30,000 mt and 34,000 mt respectively, with total inventories at their lowest level for the same period in recent years. Short-term macroeconomic pessimism has eased, and strong fundamentals have supported aluminum prices returning to around 20,000 yuan. However, further expansion of industry profits exceeding 3,000 yuan requires stronger expectations of a supply deficit. Amid the shadow of a trade war, demand prospects during the off-season are difficult to be optimistic about. It is expected that SHFE aluminum will face strong resistance in the previous deficit range of 20,000-20,300 yuan. Recently, alumina maintenance has increased, leading to a temporary reduction in production and a decline in industry inventories. However, once ore prices continue to fall or alumina prices rebound continuously, capacity will still resume on a large scale. The long-term surplus outlook and high warrant inventory limit the height of price rebounds. Today, the futures market fell significantly, trading at a discount to spot prices. There may still be support near the previous lows, and it is not advisable to chase short positions. Overall, under a fluctuating trend, the strategy is to sell on rallies. [Zinc] As the May Day holiday approaches, macroeconomic uncertainties are high, and funds are relatively cautious, with SHFE zinc fluctuating rangebound. Downstream stockpiling at lower levels was relatively sufficient, with low acceptance of high zinc prices. On Monday, SMM zinc social inventories halted their decline, recording 85,900 mt. SMM May domestic and imported TC for ZN50 increased by 50 yuan and $5 MoM to 3,500 yuan/mt (metal content) and $45/dmt respectively. With zinc prices running low, mines continue to make minor concessions, indirectly confirming weak end-use consumption. The "Golden March, Silver April" period is coming to an end, with high-frequency data showing weakening demand. Affected by cumulative tariffs, downstream orders to the US face the risk of being returned or canceled. May consumption expectations are under pressure, and SHFE zinc continues the strategy of selling on rallies. [Lead] Secondary lead smelters have reduced production beyond expectations, with a price difference of 25 yuan/mt between primary lead and scrap. In some regions, the price of primary lead is lower than that of scrap, leading downstream buyers to prefer primary lead. SMM lead social inventories decreased by 10,100 mt MoM to 44,500 mt. Due to expanding losses, secondary lead smelters intend to drive down raw material purchasing prices. At the end of last week, scrap battery suppliers, fearing price declines, sold off their holdings, improving raw material arrivals at some smelters. Battery end-use demand remains weak, with battery companies generally taking 2-3 days more off during the May Day holiday compared to the same period last year. With both supply and demand weak, SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate rangebound between 16,300-17,000 yuan/mt. Continuously monitor smelter dynamics and the SHFE/LME price ratio. [Nickel and Stainless Steel] SHFE nickel corrected, with market trading activity remaining mediocre. The anticipated pre-holiday stockpiling demand did not materialize as expected, with downstream buyers adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude, resulting in an overall sluggish trading atmosphere. Jinchuan premiums fell to 2,250 yuan, imported nickel premiums were at 150 yuan, and electrodeposited nickel premiums were at 100 yuan. High-grade nickel pig iron was quoted at 971 yuan per mtu, having fallen nearly 5% over the past month. In terms of inventories, nickel pig iron inventories increased by 3,700 mt to 24,000 mt, refined nickel inventories rose by 700 mt to 44,700 mt, and stainless steel inventories decreased by 14,000 mt to 986,000 mt. SHFE nickel is at the tail end of another rebound, with bears observing new opportunities to build positions. [Tin] SHFE tin fluctuated with a positive daily candlestick, with the trading center remaining above 260,000 yuan. Today, spot tin was at 262,200 yuan, with a real-time premium of 370 yuan against the delivery month futures price. SHFE tin saw a reduction in open interest and low participation. In the next two months, Wa State will advance production resumptions, and Alphamin in the Congo will resume production. Despite tight domestic tin ore resources, market attention is increasingly focused on demand. SHFE tin is expected to sell on rallies, with short positions held against the 265,000-270,000 yuan range. (Source: SDIC Futures)

[SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary] From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, EAF steel mills, affected by profitability, have mostly maintained their previous production levels, with relatively stable output of building materials. Blast furnace steel mills have recently seen an increase in maintenance activities, leading to a reduction in supply pressure after the holiday. On the demand side, influenced by rumors of crude steel production cuts, market sentiment has significantly improved. Coupled with the ongoing restocking demand before the May Day holiday, steel inventories have continued to decline, with some provinces experiencing shortages of rebar specifications. The bottom support for steel prices remains relatively firm. Overall, the market currently maintains a weak balance between supply and demand, with relatively small fundamental imbalances. Short-term prices are likely to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is expected that steel prices will continue to hold up well today, but caution should also be exercised regarding potential sentiment changes due to the insufficient sustainability of the rumors' popularity.

The "Golden March and Silver April" expectations fell short. Can steel prices rebound in May? The annual average spot rebar price in 2024 was 3,575 yuan/mt, while the average price from January to April 2025 was 3,310 yuan/mt, with the price center overall down by 265 yuan/mt.