At the 12th BRICS Environment Ministers' Meeting held under India's 2026 chairship in New Delhi, BRICS nations unanimously adopted a joint ministerial statement opposing the EU's CBAM, and inconsistent with international law, expressing concern over its impact on developing countries' climate efforts. CBAM entered its definitive phase on January 1, 2026, covering steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, hydrogen, and electricity. For India specifically, government data shows iron and steel exports to the EU declined 13% in the four months through April following CBAM's rollout, with an ICRIER study estimating a potential 24% long-term decline. The BRICS grouping — comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, UAE, and Saudi Arabia — collectively accounts for approximately 40% of global GDP.

Driven by geopolitical conflicts, import quota uncertainties, and the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), Turkey's slab imports fell 29% year-on-year to 1.4 million tonnes in the first half of 2026 (H1 2026). Among key suppliers, imports from Russia dropped 24% to 838,481 tonnes, shipments from Malaysia plunged 60% to 204,344 tonnes, and supplies from Algeria fell 26% to 171,405 tonnes, whereas imports from Vietnam doubled to 100,450 tonnes. In June alone, slab imports tumbled 59% year-on-year and 61% month-on-month to 142,849 tonnes, with Russian material accounting for over 98% of the total. In response to soaring freight costs and seaborne slab prices triggered by Middle East conflicts, Turkish mills adapted by cutting back on costly slab imports and shifting toward scrap, DRI/HBI, and pig iron alongside higher domestic slab production. Consequently, H1 2026 DRI/HBI imports jumped 54% year-on-year to 1.19 million tonnes, pig iron imports rose 16% to 1.43 million tonnes, and scrap imports edged up 3.2% to 9.65 million tonnes. Supported by optimized raw material inputs, Turkey's crude steel output expanded 8.1% year-on-year to 19.8 million tonnes in H1 2026, while finished steel exports rose 2.5% to 7.8 million tonnes (with June exports surging 28.4% to 1.7 million tonnes).

Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance initiated an anti-dumping investigation on August 14, 2026, into cold-rolled stainless steel flat products imported from Vietnam following a petition by Yieh United Steel and Tang Eng. The investigation covers shipments from July 2025 to June 2026, with the applicants alleging a dumping margin of up to 31.36%—a preliminary claim rather than a final determination. The case involves 20 Vietnamese enterprises, including Vnsteel, Posco VST, YGS Vina and Nam Thuan Phat, and could add further pressure to Vietnam’s stainless steel exports as trade-remedy actions in overseas markets continue to increase.

Vietnam exported nearly 7 million tonnes of steel worth around $4.5 billion in the first seven months of 2026, up significantly year on year, with exports to the US reaching about 913,000 tonnes worth over $581 million, while Cambodia imported more than 900,000 tonnes. However, steel imports remained higher at over 9 million tonnes valued at approximately $6.6 billion, leaving the sector with a trade deficit of around $2.1 billion. Steelmakers are expected to face increasing pressure from tariffs, trade remedies and environmental requirements, particularly the EU’s CBAM, which could accelerate investment in lower-emission production technologies.

Data from India’s Ministry of Steel show that rolled steel exports rose by 44.1% year on year to 699,000 tonnes in July 2026, while steel imports increased by 9.5% to 702,000 tonnes. Domestic steel consumption rose by 6.5% y/y to 14.4 million tonnes, whereas steel production increased by only 1.2% y/y to 14.3 million tonnes. Prices of major steel products weakened month on month, with hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices down 0.4% from June.

India's rolled steel exports experienced a significant 44.1% year-on-year increase in July 2026 as domestic mills actively targeted alternative markets to manage expanding capacity. The export push comes as the Indian steel industry seeks to balance aggressively growing internal capacity against shifting regional demand dynamics, with heavy volumes directed toward Southeast Asia and the Americas.

According to customs statistics, in the first seven months of 2026, the total import and export value of China's goods trade reached 30.13 trillion yuan, a YoY (the same hereinafter) increase of 17.3%. Exports were 17.44 trillion yuan, up 14%; imports were 12.69 trillion yuan, up 22%. In July, the total import and export value of China's goods trade was 4.66 trillion yuan, up 19.2%. Exports were 2.71 trillion yuan, up 17.8%; imports were 1.95 trillion yuan, up 21.2%. By trade mode, in the first seven months, China's ordinary trade imports and exports reached 18.13 trillion yuan, up 10.2%; processing trade imports and exports stood at 5.81 trillion yuan, up 26.3%; bonded logistics imports and exports were 5.18 trillion yuan, up 40.8%. By trading partner, in the first seven months, China's trade with ASEAN totaled 5.14 trillion yuan, up 20%; with the EU, it was 3.67 trillion yuan, up 9.5%; with the US, it was 2.38 trillion yuan, down 1.6%. Over the same period, China's combined imports and exports with Belt and Road partner countries amounted to 15.36 trillion yuan, up 15.5%. By type of enterprise, in the first seven months, private enterprises' imports and exports stood at 17.16 trillion yuan, up 17.2%; foreign-invested enterprises' imports and exports were 8.78 trillion yuan, up 17.6%; state-owned enterprises' imports and exports reached 4.14 trillion yuan, up 17.3%. By key commodities, On the export side, in the first seven months, China exported 11.12 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, up 21.2%; labor-intensive products 2.37 trillion yuan, down 1.4%; agricultural products 429.69 billion yuan, up 3.7%. On the import side, in the first seven months, China imported 5.31 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, up 29.7%; 283 million mt of crude oil, down 13.2%; and 904.1 billion yuan of agricultural products, up 7.4%. Based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, SMM has compiled the import and export situation of some metal industry products as follows: Exports: In July 2026, rare earth exports were 4,223.5 mt, a YoY decrease of 29.5% from July 2025 . Cumulative exports for January-July 2026 were 34,706.3 mt, a YoY decrease of 10% from January-July 2025. In July 2026, steel exports were 10.121 million mt, a YoY increase of 2.9% from July 2025 . Cumulative exports for January-July 2026 were 6,499.5 mt, a YoY decrease of 4.4 % from January-July 2025. In July 2026, exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis were 643,000 mt , a YoY increase of 18.6% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative exports were 4.039 million mt, a YoY increase of 16.7% from January-July 2025. Imports: In July 2026, iron ore and concentrates imports were 108.085 million mt, a YoY increase of 3.3% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports were 736.841 million mt, a YoY increase of 5.9% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, copper ore and concentrates imports were 2.379 million mt, a YoY decrease of 7.1% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports were 16.985 million mt, a YoY decrease of 1.8% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, coal and lignite imports were 42.728 million mt, a YoY increase of 20% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports were 268.109 million mt, a YoY increase of 4.3% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, rare earth imports reached 9,451.3 mt, a YoY decrease of 1.8% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports reached 63,323.0 mt, a YoY decrease of 65.5% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, steel imports reached 445,000 mt, a YoY decrease of 1.5% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports reached 3.14 million mt, a YoY decrease of 10.1% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, imports of unwrought copper and copper semis were 425,000 mt, a YoY decrease of 11.5% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports were 2.915 million mt, a YoY decrease of 6.2 % .

On August 7, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 10.211 million mt of steel products in July 2026, down 199,000 mt MoM, or 1.9% MoM; cumulative exports from January to July reached 64.995 million mt, down 4.4% YoY. In July 2026, China imported 445,000 mt of steel products, up 4,000 mt MoM, or 0.8% MoM; cumulative imports from January to July were 3.14 million mt, down 10.1% YoY. Table 1: Steel Imports and Exports Data Summary, January-July Source: SMM • China's steel exports stayed elevated with fluctuations in July According to SMM's July export schedule survey, the planned HRC export volume for the month was 1.059 million mt, slightly higher than actual exports in June. SMM export order data showed that export orders for steel products declined from a high level in May. At that time, port inspections on MD and other activities were relatively strict, which slowed down the pace of some export orders. However, orders at steel mills improved slightly. Coupled with the fact that cargoes delayed due to earlier inspections were gradually shipped out in July, overall steel exports in July still delivered a relatively decent performance. Table 2: China's Total Steel Exports Source: SMM • July steel imports remained low On the import side, steel imports in July were 445,000 mt, up 4,000 mt MoM, or 0.8% MoM; cumulative imports from January to July were 3.14 million mt, down 10.1% YoY. Net exports of steel reached 61.855 million mt. Short-term Steel Export Outlook 1. Global manufacturing slid further MoM; overseas demand remained in off-season mode According to J.P. Morgan's global PMI data, the Global Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 came in at 52.1. Although it remained in expansion territory, the pace of expansion slowed for the third consecutive month. The preemptive steel stockpiling demand earlier triggered by geopolitical disruptions in Middle Eastern shipping has been fully cleared. Combined with persistently weak demand for consumer goods, property, and infrastructure among end-users in Europe and the US, global commodity and physical steel orders collectively fell into contraction territory. Alongside this, ASEAN manufacturing PMI also declined again. China's Manufacturing New Export Orders Index for July was 49.6%, down 0.5 percentage points MoM, slipping back into contraction territory. 2. Overseas steel mills have proactively controlled production; supply contraction lacks sustainability In June 2026, global crude steel production fell 0.3% YoY to 157.9 million mt. In China, as the southern rainy season and high-temperature off-season deepened, downstream steel product construction was significantly hampered. Under heavy pressure from persistently inverted profit margins, steel mills' monthly output edged down 0.8% MoM. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world declined 2.0% MoM, with performance diverging in Asia's core regions. India and Vietnam both saw flat MoM output in June; the former was supported by robust domestic infrastructure resilience, while the latter benefited from earlier concentrated stockpiling and steady operation following new capacity ramp-up. In contrast, Japan and South Korea were dragged by slowing production schedules in downstream automotive and manufacturing sectors, showing a seasonal slight correction. Notably, the Middle East and CIS regions, which had plunged deeply in May, saw marginal recovery. Meanwhile, Europe and the US collectively entered a seasonal weakening trajectory. EU production in June dropped significantly by 5.3% MoM, with Germany tumbling 9.4%; North America declined 5.9% MoM and the US also fell 4.0%. The main reasons for the pullback in Europe and the US were, on one hand, the industry's entry into the routine summer maintenance period, and on the other, the high summer electricity prices and steel scrap prices squeezing electric furnace margins, significantly dampening mills' willingness to operate. The decline in overseas production theoretically offers structural opportunities for China's exports. However, the drops in end markets like Europe and the US were more due to proactive production cuts driven by falling demand. Coupled with India and Vietnam still maintaining high output, China's exports continue to face pressure. Figure 1: Global Crude Steel Production by Region Source: SMM 3. Price advantage continued to narrow; export order-taking pressure persisted As of July 31, 2026, the HRC export offers (FOB) for India, Turkey, and the CIS stood at $515/mt, $575/mt, and $515/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export offer (FOB) was $486/mt. China's HRC offers were -$29/mt, -$89/mt, and -$29/mt lower than those other countries, respectively. China's steel export price advantage further narrowed MoM from June. Overseas markets remained in the off-season, and low-price promotions remained the main channel for those countries to ease domestic pressures. In contrast, domestic sales pressure was not evident, and prices remained relatively firm. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to narrow, and pressure on export order-taking persisted. Figure 2: HRC Offers in Major Global Markets Source: SMM 4. Export orders rebounded from a bottom in June-July; order-taking improved slightly According to SMM's latest steel mill export order schedule, the planned HRC export volume this month was 1.023 million mt, down 2.8% MoM from the actual level last month. SMM steel export order data showed that although overseas markets remained in the off-season, recent restrictions on resource exports from the Middle East (especially Iran) created a notable supply gap in semi-finished products in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia. This shortfall was quickly filled by Chinese resources. On the other hand, traders took profits from spot-futures price spread operations in late July, offering lower actual prices to facilitate transactions, which led to a bottoming rebound in export order data in July. In reality, overseas demand had not yet emerged from the off-season, and a steady recovery in export order-taking still faces pressure. Figure 3: SMM Steel Export Order Volume Source: SMM 5. Anti-dumping cases related to steel increased in July In July, the number of new anti-dumping cases related to steel initiated against China increased, covering products such as steel pipes, coated steel, sections, coiled rebar, wire rod, and hot-rolled coils. Details of specific cases and affected volumes are shown in the table below: Table 3: New Anti-Dumping Cases in July Source: SMM Taking all factors into account, lower actual transaction prices stimulated some volume growth, with semi-finished products accounting for a larger share. Given that July export numbers have already been significantly elevated, SMM expects that total steel exports in August will not sustain a strong unilateral upward trend. Instead, they will move sideways in a high range, while semi-finished product exports will remain relatively high. Figure 4: Steel Exports and Forecast, 2024-2026 Source: SMM Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original work of this official account. For requests related to reprinting, whitelisting, cooperation, etc., please contact us. Without permission, no part may be reproduced, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to any third party, nor may any third party be authorized to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will pursue legal action for infringement, including but not limited to holding the infringing party liable for breach of contract, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. 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August rebar planned production at 7.2229 million mt, down 96,100 mt or 1.31% from July actual output. August wire rod planned production at 3.0722 million mt, down 120,800 mt or 3.78% from July actual output. Export planned production of long products at sampled steel mills in August was 590,000 mt, down 63,000 mt MoM, with billet export planned production at 320,000 mt, down 30,000 mt MoM.

India's steel market presented a mixed picture in July, with domestic consumption continuing to outpace production while exports rebounded sharply, nearly matching imports for the month. However, strong import volumes earlier in the fiscal year kept the country a net importer through April-July.