[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Costs and Prices Pull Back in Tandem, Steel Mill Profits Remain Basically Stable This week, stainless steel prices and production costs fell together, and steel mill profit margins remained basically stable. Based on 304 cold-rolled as the benchmark, the profit margin calculated with current raw materials was 2.07%, while that using inventory raw materials was 1.33%. Nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices showed a pullback trend this week. During the week, SHFE nickel and SS futures were in the doldrums overall. Although there were widespread expectations of tight supply for high-grade NPI and upstream smelters and traders maintained firm offers, stainless steel mills' production schedule expectations pulled back, leading to weaker demand, and coupled with the simultaneous decline in stainless steel prices, the industry's acceptance of high-priced supply was very limited, and market transactions remained sluggish. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with mainstream grade of 10%-12% fell by 8 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,133 yuan per nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices pulled back slightly this week. The weak futures market transmitted downward to spot cargo, and combined with sluggish off-season demand and reduced steel mill production schedules, rigid demand weakened further. Although steel scrap had an economic advantage over NPI, providing floor support for prices, uncertainty over Indonesian policies kept the market in a wait-and-see stance. Under the weight of bearish fundamentals, short-term stainless steel scrap prices are expected to continue to be in the doldrums. As of this Friday, the mainstream 304 off-cuts price in the Shanghai region fell by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quotation at approximately 10,400 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued to edge down this week. High-carbon ferrochrome production remained high...

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of June 22–26, 2026. Lingering Fed hawkishness and softening off-season fundamentals dragged the SHFE main contract down RMB 390/mt ($57/mt) this week, but firm producer pricing and a modest supply pullback kept the spot market relatively resilient.

[SMM Analysis] Weak Off-Season Demand and Firm Raw Materials Drive Up Stainless Steel Costs, Narrowing Profits This week, stainless steel production costs edged up slightly, while product prices remained stable overall, leading to a slight narrowing of steel mill profit margins. Using 304 cold-rolled as the calculation benchmark, the current raw material-calculated profit margin was 2.16%, while the inventory raw material-calculated profit margin was 1.44%. Nickel-based raw material cost side, this week high-grade NPI prices edged up. Although the market has entered the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, with weak end-use demand, insufficient market confidence, and strong steel mill desires to bargain down prices, the limited production cuts for 300-series stainless steel in June meant a relatively small decline in demand for high-grade NPI. Combined with persistent disturbances from Indonesian news and a firm stance on holding prices from upstream players, these factors collectively drove high-grade NPI prices to hold up well. As of this Friday, the mainstream grade of 10%-12% high-grade NPI rose by 0.5 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,144 yuan per nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market side, this week stainless steel scrap prices edged up. Driven by the linkage effect of firm spot finished steel and strong high-grade NPI, scrap prices also moved higher synchronously. However, under the suppression of multiple bearish factors such as weak demand in the traditional off-season, tight supply of tax invoices, and steel mill process limitations, its upside room was limited. Currently, bullish and bearish factors are counterbalancing each other, and it is expected that in the short term, stainless steel scrap prices will mainly remain stable. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cut prices in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quotation at approximately 10,450 yuan/mt. Chrome-based raw material cost side, this week high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained stable. Although in the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, in June steel...

HRC futures closed at 3,377 today, down 0.44% for the day. Spot side, cold-rolled and hot-rolled spot prices fell 10-20 yuan/mt, with overall transactions being mediocre. Today SMM released partial weekly HRC balance data. This week, SMM's surveyed social inventory of HRC across 86 warehouses nationwide was 4.3519 million mt, down 114,500 mt WoW, or -2.56% WoW. By region, except for South China and Northeast China markets, other markets continued destocking. Demand side, this week's apparent demand was up 13,800 mt WoW, and demand had not yet shown a significant decline due to the off-season. From a fundamental perspective, supply-demand imbalance had not yet accumulated this week. Looking ahead, market rumors suggest coke still has expectations of further increases, which provides some support to the steel cost side. However, considering current signs of weakening market demand and weak market sentiment, prices are unlikely to rise significantly going forward, with short-term movements expected to be range-bound.

[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Costs Edged Down with Prices Holding Steady, Steel Mill Profits Rebounded Slightly This week, stainless steel production costs edged down while prices remained generally stable, resulting in a slight expansion in steel mill profit margins. Using 304 cold-rolled as the calculation benchmark, the current raw material-based profit margin was 2.33%, while the low-level inventory raw material-based profit margin reached 3.39%. Nickel-based raw material costs: high-grade NPI prices edged up this week. Although the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel was approaching, steel mills had limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials and adopted a cautious purchasing stance, with mediocre performance in transactions. However, supported by expectations of tight high-grade NPI supply, the market showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and prices remained firm overall. As of this Friday, mainstream 10-12% grade high-grade NPI rose 3 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,143.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market: stainless steel scrap prices pulled back slightly this week. Although SS futures edged up, the spillover effect was weak and difficult to transmit to the spot market. With the consumption off-season approaching, downstream purchasing attitudes were cautious, and finished product prices lacked upward momentum. The high-grade NPI rally slowed down with weak transactions, providing insufficient support from the raw material side. Compounded by unresolved tax invoice tightness, fermentation of rumors about steel mill production cuts in June, and weakening demand expectations, multiple bearish factors dragged down prices. However, stainless steel scrap still held an economic advantage over NPI, with the cost price spread providing a floor and limiting the downside. In the short term, constrained by tax invoice issues and weakening off-season demand, prices are expected to remain relatively stable going forward. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai fell 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at approximately 10,350 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw materials...

The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

[Limited Fundamental Support for Prices, GO Silicon Steel Prices May Be in the Doldrums Next Week] In terms of supply, China's steel mills maintained a steady production pace. Regular GO silicon steel resources remained in ample supply, while high-grade Hi-B resources saw no supply expansion due to technical barriers and production schedule constraints. The overall market continued to exhibit a divergent pattern of "low-end surplus and relatively balanced high-end." On the demand side, downstream transformer enterprises continued to see weak orders, with end-user operating rates remaining moderate. Procurement was primarily need-based restocking, and pre-Labour Day holiday restocking demand release fell short of expectations. End-user enterprises generally adopted a wait-and-see stance, concerned about a post-holiday price pullback, maintaining a cautious procurement pace.

Based on SMM Research, stainless steel prices in Southeast Asia are expected to rise USD20–40/ton next week. Continued strength in nickel ore prices has driven up NPI production costs, underpinning overall stainless steel cost levels and fuelling upward price expectations.

This week, stainless steel production costs showed a strengthening upward trend, while spot prices rose even more significantly. The cost-price inversion at stainless steel mills was repaired, and profits gradually recovered. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on current raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 1.79% this week; calculated using inventory raw material costs, the profit margin was 1.99%. On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices showed a strengthening upward trend this week. Affected by the revision of Indonesia's nickel ore HMP, the market expected nickel ore costs to rise. Combined with the continued strengthening of SHFE nickel and SS futures, bullish expectations in the high-grade NPI market were strong. After downstream stainless steel mill profits recovered, their acceptance of high-priced raw materials improved, driving high-grade NPI quotes to stop falling and rebound. As of this Friday, mainstream high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade rose 10 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,090 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market side, stainless steel scrap prices rose sharply this week, driven by nickel ore cost increases and futures market linkage. The revision of nickel ore pricing pushed up cost expectations, and combined with the simultaneous rise in high-grade NPI, raw material linkage drove prices higher. Although the cost advantage of stainless steel scrap narrowed slightly, it remained attractive to steel enterprises, and market trading activity improved. Despite delayed payment issues dragging on trading pace, the market remained generally strong under futures-spot resonance and demand support, and was expected to consolidate at highs in the short term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at approximately 10,350 yuan/mt. On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their downward trend this week. Although stainless steel prices strengthened somewhat, procurement transactions in the high-carbon ferrochrome market remained sluggish recently. Earlier maintenance and production cut plans were insufficiently implemented, and current supply remained at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, recent declines in chrome ore and coke prices further weakened cost support, and rising nickel-based raw material costs also exerted some downward pressure on ferrochrome prices. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 75 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW, closing at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

On April 14, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.135 million mt of steel in March 2026, up 1.298 million mt MoM, a 16.6% increase MoM; cumulative steel exports from January to March totaled 24.717 million mt, down 9.9% YoY. China imported 512,000 mt of steel in March 2026, up 143,000 mt MoM; cumulative steel imports from January to March totaled 1.339 million mt, down 14.1% YoY. China's Steel Exports Increased MoM in March Due to fewer days in February, combined with the Chinese New Year holiday and other factors, steel exports saw a seasonal rebound in March. Earlier SMM survey data on export order-taking also hinted at this trend — domestic sellers gradually resumed taking orders from mid-to-late January, with export order-taking maintaining a relatively high growth rate MoM. On the other hand, the global manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 51.2%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, running above 50% for two consecutive months, with Asia, Europe, and the Americas all rising MoM. China's Steel Imports Increased MoM in March Import side, China's cumulative steel imports from January to March totaled 1.339 million mt, down 14.1% YoY; net steel exports reached 23.378 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook According to the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in March 2026 was 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM, running above 50% for 11 consecutive months, driven by some economies in Europe, the Americas, and Asia, while Middle East geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions persisted. China's new export orders index for the manufacturing sector was 49.1% in February, up 4.1 percentage points MoM, showing a relatively notable recovery MoM. Data monitored by the World Steel Association showed that global crude steel production in February 2026 fell 2.2% YoY to 141.8 million mt. Among them, the pullback in China's production was mainly due to physical shutdowns during the Chinese New Year holiday and post-holiday high inventory forcing steel mills to actively cut hot metal production. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world also declined significantly by 8.75% MoM, with notable divergence in production schedule paces across regions — the most prominent being the Middle East, where output dropped markedly due to geopolitical conflicts and tariffs. The contraction in ex-China production, particularly in the Middle East, created opportunities for China's exports, especially semi-finished products. Chart 1 - Iran's Export Data by Product Category As of April 13, 2026, HRC export prices (FOB) from India, Turkey, and the CIS were $505/mt, $625/mt, and $495/mt respectively, while China's HRC export price (FOB) was $485/mt. Currently, China's HRC export price was +$20/mt, +$140/mt, and +$10/mt lower than those countries respectively. This shows that the escalation of the US-Iran conflict has pushed up ex-China steel costs far more than in China , further highlighting China's steel export price advantage. Chart 2 - Global Major Market HRC Prices Based on SMM's latest steel mill export scheduling data, HRC export planned volume this month was 851,000 mt, up 67,000 mt from last month's actual exports, an increase of 8.5% MoM. According to SMM steel export order-taking data, as production gradually resumed in and outside China, steel export order-taking in March increased 13.98% MoM from February. Due to the gap left by Iran's exports to Southeast Asia, the most notable increase was in semi-finished products, while the increase in finished products was relatively limited. Taking all factors into consideration, with order-taking and shipping gradually recovering, SMM expects steel exports in April to continue rebounding MoM. However, differences across product categories may emerge, which is expected to result in relatively limited incremental volume in the General Administration of Customs data released on the 8th, while the product-specific data released on the 20th may show relatively strong performance in semi-finished products. Chart 3 - SMM Steel Export Order Taking VolumeData Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. 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