[SMM Steel] UNESID welcomed the new European Union steel trade mechanism set to take effect on July 1, 2026, replacing current safeguards. The system reduces tariff-free quotas by ~47% to 18.3 million mt/year and raises out-of-quota tariffs to 50%, while allowing limited quota carry-over in the first year.

【SMM Steel】On Apr 10, 2026, the Guixin Steel Indonesia project, a JV between Guangxi Guixin Steel Group and Tsingshan Holding Group, was fully commissioned at the Tsingshan Industrial Park in Central Sulawesi. The project involved converting a former nickel-iron BF into a 1,216m³ carbon steel BF. The facility includes a 210㎡ sinter plant, two 12㎡ shaft furnace pelletizing units, a 100T BOF, and full-process CC & HR lines. It will produce >1.8 Mt/y of quality steel billets/products. SMM understands it currently mainly produces slabs, with billets expected in August and HRC later. The capacity will fill regional carbon steel gaps and impact semi-finished/flat steel trade flows in SE Asia.

War damage to Iran’s key steel mills threatens ~14 Mt of capacity, sharply reducing crude steel output and exportable supply. While domestic demand remains relatively stable, energy shortages and logistics disruptions amplify losses, tightening regional supply, supporting semi-finished steel prices, and reshaping trade flows.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Moved Sideways, Stainless Steel Spot Trading Was Mediocre and Struggled to Rise On April 9, SMM reported that SS futures continued to move sideways. The US and Iran temporarily ceased fire, but geopolitical conflicts had not truly subsided, and uncertainty at the macro perspective remained elevated. SS futures failed to extend the previous rally and mainly moved sideways, closing at 14,320 yuan/mt as of the midday session. In the spot market, affected by the pause in the futures rally, the stainless steel spot market still saw some inquiry activity, but actual transactions were still dominated by low-priced sources; traders attempted to slightly raise their quotes, but actual transaction gains were limited. The most-traded SS futures contract moved sideways. At 10:15 AM, the most-traded SS2605 futures contract was quoted at 14,290 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the range of 180-380 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi fell by 100 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt, while the average price in Foshan remained stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in the Wuxi area fell by 200 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted flat in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The stainless steel market is currently in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April." Downstream demand fundamentals have recovered compared to the earlier period, with end-user procurement continuing at a just-needed pace, and the overall trading volume was sufficient to hold quotes firm for basic market vitality. However, affected by macro news disturbances and futures fluctuations, downstream end-user clients still...

On April 2, 2026, the White House ushered US steel trade policy into "Version 2.0." This strategic shift goes beyond simple tariff hikes. It uses full-value taxation and melt-and-pour traceability to block low-end imported raw materials, while applying structural tariff reductions to finished products to ease manufacturing inflation. Ultimately, this two-pronged approach aims to forcibly bring the global supply chain back to domestic US steel production.

[SMM Steel] The European Steel Association (Eurofer) issued an urgent call for the EU to implement a new steel trade measure, citing a "deepening global crisis." According to the latest OECD data, global steelmaking capacity has reached a record 2.4 billion mt, with excess capacity surging to 640 million mt in 2025 - exceeding total OECD production by over 200 million mt. Eurofer Director General Axel Eggert described the situation as an "existential threat" to European jobs and investment, urging negotiators to finalize a robust tariff-rate quota (TRQ) system before the current safeguards expire in June 2026.

Indonesia's new nickel tariffs and Europe's CBAM have sharply raised overseas stainless steel costs, driving Asian mills to hike prices. Downstream demand remains mixed: Japan and South Korea are resilient, while the Taiwan, China region faces pressure. Wary of rapid price spikes, buyers are limiting purchases to rigid demand. The market will remain cautious until tariff details and actual demand are validated.

According to EUROMETAL reports, the EU will implement a permanent steel trade measure on July 1, 2026, replacing the expiring safeguard system. The new framework drastically tightens import protections by slashing the annual quota volume by 47% (from ~34M mt to 18.3M mt) and doubling the out-of-quota tariff to 50%. A strict "melt and pour" rule will also be introduced, requiring importers to prove where the steel was originally melted and cast to access country-specific quotas, significantly increasing customs complexity. This permanent measure applies to all non-EEA nations, removing previous exemptions for developing countries and FTA partners. Legal experts warn this aggressive protectionist shift could provoke retaliatory countermeasures if negotiations fail.

Middle East tensions have sparked a massive steel trade "mismatch." Iran's blocked exports created a 2.3-million-ton billet vacuum in Southeast Asia, while the Red Sea crisis stalled China's flat steel shipments to the Gulf. Consequently, China and India are rapidly absorbing SEA's diverted billet orders. SMM projects that blocked flat steel returning to China's domestic market, combined with surging overseas billet demand, will accelerate the narrowing of the domestic HRC-rebar spread.

[SMM Hot Topic] Estimated “Cliff-Like” Drop in China’s Steel Exports—A Ramadan Pattern or a War Shock? As mentioned above, [Persian Gulf Shutdown? The Impact of the U.S.-Iran Conflict on Global Steel Trade] amid the US–Iran conflict, global steel trade was shaken and reshaped. Another topic that has recently been widely discussed in the market is: what impact will this war have on China’s total export volume? Before going into detail, it is important to remind everyone that the current focus has largely remained on geopolitical conflict, while often overlooking that this period coincides with Ramadan, a seasonal trough. Therefore, to quantify the war’s actual impact more accurately, SMM conducted corresponding “dehydration” adjustments based on ferrous panoramic shipping data. Most Direct Impact: A Deep Shortfall on the Shipping Side Data Source:SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping According to the table above, in the absence of war, during Ramadan 2025, China’s average weekly shipments to Gulf countries were about 327,000 mt, while the average weekly shipments in the month after Ramadan ended were 450,400 mt. Therefore, keeping average weekly shipments at around 300,000 mt during Ramadan is considered a “normal contraction” level. By further comparing the same-period data for 2026 and 2025, we can precisely calculate the quantified impact caused by the war. As of the latest date, in the first 20 days of Ramadan, China exported and shipped only 5,000 mt, with a weekly average of only 1,750 mt. Estimation logic: If there were no war, based on a neutral assessment using the 2025 Ramadan benchmark, total shipments in the first 20 days should have been about 930,000 mt; therefore, the war resulted in shipment losses of about 925,000 mt. Therefore, we can conclude that the more than 99% plunge on the shipping side was most likely caused by the war (route blockades, shipowners’ risk aversion), and the Ramadan factor is almost negligible in the face of such a massive decline. Delayed Effects on the Arrival Side Data Source: SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping In addition to the impact on the shipping side, SMM ’s ferrous panoramic shipping data also showed that after operations were suspended at multiple ports, a combination of factors—such as vessels being unable to berth and unload—led to a decline in the total volume of steel arriving at ports. As of the latest date, average weekly arrivals were about 220,200 mt, down by roughly 82,000 mt/week from 302,200 mt over the same period last year. Estimation logic: assuming no war impact and using a neutral assessment based on the 2025 Ramadan benchmark, cumulative arrivals in the first 20 days should have been about 863,400 mt, implying a cumulative shortfall of about 234,000 mt. Cause breakdown: it is expected that the decline on the arrivals side was not as pronounced as that on the shipments side, because among these 12 arriving vessels, most carried orders that had already been dispatched before the full outbreak of the war or in the early stage of the situation (Jan 25–Feb 25). Therefore, this 234,000 mt gap was mainly due to war-driven route detours (delays) and partial port shutdowns. Data Source: SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping In summary, based on the data, we can conclude that Ramadan was merely the “backdrop,” while the war was the “main cause.” If the impact were only from Ramadan, we should still have had about 300,000 mt of steel shipped to the Gulf each week. The reality, however, is that since Feb 18, our average weekly shipments have plunged to less than 2,000 mt. This means that, within the currently observed gap, shipment losses of more than 900,000 mt were entirely caused by war-related order stagnation or shipping lane disruptions. The 27% decline currently seen on the arrivals side is only the beginning; the real “vacuum period” will fully emerge in late March, during the latter part of Ramadan. At present, a phased contraction in China’s total steel exports to the Middle East has become a foregone conclusion. Does this mean the strong momentum of China’s full-year exports will come to a halt here? According to SMM steel export take-order data, last week, the total orders taken by 31 exporters were about 765,000 mt, up 20.76% MoM. Among them, export orders for long products were about 437,000 mt, up 56.07% MoM; export orders for sheets & plates were about 328,000 mt, down 7.21% MoM. Against the backdrop of rising export prices, this growth did not stem from a broad-based global economic recovery, but from forced shifts in trade flows driven by geopolitical conflicts. On the one hand, instability in Iran diverted Southeast Asian orders to China, driving a boom in steel billet exports; on the other hand, conflict in the Middle East pushed up shipping costs, and the surge in fuel prices directly caused physical disruptions along the trade chain. Even if there is overseas demand, the sharp rise in freight rates also weakened the pricing advantage of Chinese steel products. SMM Steel Export Orders Taken - 31 Companies (10kt) Data Source:SMM Weekly Steel Export Report Therefore, although the reduction in exports to the Middle East has already been confirmed by the data, assessing its impact on China’s total exports for the full year still needs to be based on a “global rebalancing” perspective: is the “gap” created after demand in Gulf countries is constrained being converted into “incremental volume” in other markets? What is the actual absorption capacity of these emerging incremental markets? Can they offset the monthly shipping loss of 900,000 mt from the Middle East? Please continue to follow SMM Steel Industry Research; we will regularly update global shipping developments… Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. 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