[SMM Steel] Pakistan’s National Tariff Commission (NTC) has extended anti-dumping duties on continuous casting steel billets from China at 24.04% following a second sunset review. The measure will remain effective for five years from June 22, 2025, covering semi-finished steel products under multiple HS codes. Originally imposed in 2017 and reviewed in 2022, the duty aims to protect domestic producers, while exemptions apply for export-oriented production and foreign-funded projects.

SMM April 20: Metals Market: As of the daytime close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE nickel declining. SHFE aluminum fell 1.49% and SHFE nickel fell 0.9%. The rest of the metals rose, with SHFE zinc up 0.69% and the others gaining less than 0.6%. The alumina front-month contract rose 0.43%, while the casting aluminum front-month contract fell 1.31%. Additionally, the lithium carbonate front-month contract rose 2.6%, the silicon metal front-month contract rose 1.05%, and the polysilicon front-month contract hit the daily limit again during intraday trading, closing at 42,955 yuan/mt with a 9% gain. The Europe containerized freight front-month contract rose 0.38% to 2,103.2. Ferrous metals all rose except stainless steel, which fell 0.47%. Hot-rolled coil, rebar, and iron ore all gained over 1% (hot-rolled coil 1.17%, rebar 1.24%, iron ore 1.16%). Coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 2.77% and coke rose 2.27%. Overseas market, as of 15:07, all metals fell except LME nickel, which led the gains with a 1.36% rise. The rest declined, with LME copper leading the losses at 0.63%. Precious metals, as of 15:07, COMEX gold fell 1.5% and COMEX silver fell 2.67%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.08% and SHFE silver rose 1.34%. Additionally, the platinum front-month contract fell 0.18% and the palladium front-month contract fell 0.18%. Market Data as of 15:07 Today Macro Front China: [NEA: Total Electricity Consumption Reached 2,514.1 billion kWh, Up 5.2% YoY, January-March] The National Energy Administration released March electricity consumption data. From January to March, total electricity consumption reached 2,514.1 billion kWh, up 5.2% YoY. By sector, the primary industry consumed 33.6 billion kWh, up 7.1% YoY. The secondary industry consumed 1,598.7 billion kWh, up 4.7% YoY; of which, industrial electricity consumption was 1,583.6 billion kWh, up 4.9% YoY, and high-tech and equipment manufacturing consumed 274.6 billion kWh, up 8.6% YoY. The tertiary industry consumed 483.3 billion kWh, up 8.1% YoY; of which, EV charging and battery swapping services and internet data services consumed 37.6 billion and 22.9 billion kWh respectively, with growth rates of 53.8% and 44.0%. Urban and rural residential electricity consumption was 398.5 billion kWh, up 3.4% YoY. [April LPR Unchanged: Both 5-Year and 1-Year Rates Held Steady for the Eleventh Consecutive Month] The April LPR was announced: PBOC kept the 1-year and 5-year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively, unchanged for the eleventh consecutive month. [Foshan's Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Policy Is Here! First Batch Involves 22 Residential Projects] Recently, the Notice on Organizing the First Batch of Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Program by the Foshan Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau was officially released. This is not merely an encouraging document; it is a solution that systematically clears bottlenecks in housing replacement through model innovation and a policy package. It aims to drive the real estate market's transition from "one-sided transactions" to a "virtuous cycle between existing and new housing stock," achieving a win-win outcome for residents, enterprises, and the market. The innovation of Foshan's trade-in policy lies in bringing multiple real estate enterprises into the program: Foshan Anju, Chancheng Anju, Nanhai Youju, Shunde Chengtie, Gaoming Airport Construction, and Sanshui Anju serve as acquisition entities, while Foshan Chengfa, Foshan Urban Renewal, Foshan Lianzhi, Heyue Yaji, Shunkong Chengtou, Yongdeli Commerce, Sanshui Chanfa, and Miaohui Real Estate provide new housing sources. This model determines the value of existing homes through negotiation, establishes a "contract termination protection period" to avoid blindly pushing for lower prices, thereby completing the "sell old, buy new" closed loop and serving as a market stabilizer. (Foshan Release) US Dollar: As of 15:07, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.26. According to a CITIC Securities research report, US Fed Governor Miran and three other economists recently co-published a working paper titled "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet," whose structure bears similarities to the previously widely discussed "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System." The paper challenges the conventional view that the US Fed cannot significantly reduce its balance sheet, arguing that reserve demand is largely determined by the regulatory environment and that balance sheet reduction can be achieved without causing unexpected market stress by adjusting the regulatory framework, curbing precautionary motives, and addressing other sources of reserve demand. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the paper estimates the potential balance sheet reduction space at $1.2 trillion to $2.1 trillion. We believe the "balance sheet reduction guide" has a certain degree of real-world feasibility, but some options are somewhat idealistic. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99.5%. The probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points by June was 4.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points was 0.5%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Germany's March PPI month-on-month rate, Canada's March CPI month-on-month rate, and other data were to be released today. Also worth noting: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered speeches; Trump said a US delegation would arrive in Islamabad on the evening of the 20th for negotiations, while Iran denied reports of a second round of talks being held in Islamabad. Crude oil: As of 15:07, oil prices in both markets surged, with WTI up 6.42% and Brent up 5.9%. Iran had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices sharply higher. On the 19th local time, an Iraqi oil ministry official said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would block the export of nearly 4 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil over the next three days. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a statement on the 18th saying that, due to the US violating ceasefire commitments and failing to lift the naval blockade on Iranian ports and vessels, the Strait of Hormuz would be blocked starting that evening. (CCTV News) Gary Pedersen, head of trading house Gunvor, warned that the oil market was facing more turbulence as Middle East tensions collided with seasonal slowdown in crude oil demand, increasing the likelihood of further sharp and unpredictable fluctuations in crude oil prices. (Jin10 Data) The International Energy Agency forecast that global crude oil demand would decline by 1.5 million barrels per day in Q2, the largest drop since the COVID-19 pandemic. OPEC's forecast was relatively mild, projecting a daily decline of 500,000 barrels. (Jin10 Data) A CICC research report noted that as the Iran situation entered its 7th week, the situation saw a further turning point. Although the first round of peace talks "collapsed," both the US and Iran "announced" the reopening of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which still largely boosted optimistic sentiment in the market, despite subsequent reversals. This was largely in line with our base case assumption: while short-term reversals remain possible, a complete loss of control over the medium term is not the base case scenario, as Trump still has midterm elections to consider, and a comprehensive and uncontrollable escalation serves neither side's interests. Under this scenario, the Brent crude oil price center would gradually pull back to around $80 in Q2 and Q3, and the US Fed could still cut interest rates. (Jin10 Data APP) SMM Daily Review ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

【SMM Steel】Abu Dhabi's Metal Park will launch a new cut-and-bend rebar facility in Q2 2026, adding 25,000-30,000 t/m of capacity (~10-12% of UAE monthly usage). The project supports large infrastructure/energy projects by providing precision-processed steel. Integrating storage/fabrication reduces on-site congestion. The platform uses a pay-as-you-go model, allowing scale without large upfront capital. Commissioning is underway; full ops expected within six months.

【SMM Steel】Erciyas Steel Pipe completed pipe production/delivery for Morocco's drinking water project. The $76m contract supports a desalination initiative to secure water supplies for the Marrakech region. The manufacturer and partner provided materials on schedule. Local institutions continue construction. Erciyas is negotiating additional opportunities. Morocco intends to extend the partnership based on delivery performance. Both parties aim to expand collaboration across upcoming infrastructure developments.

【SMM Steel】The USDOC rescinded an AD review on UK cold-rolled steel flat products after finding no subject goods entered the US during the Sep 1, 2024 - Aug 31, 2025 review period. US producers requested the investigation in Sep 2025, and the USDOC initiated a review in Dec. With no opposition to its Dec 18 intent to revoke, the cancellation was finalized. The absence of import transactions removed the basis for continued action. The inquiry into UK cold-rolled steel imports has concluded.

【SMM Steel】Vietnam's Vingal received EIA approval for a capacity expansion at Bien Hoa II Industrial Park. Total capacity will rise from 40,000 t/y to 60,000 t/y to meet growing demand for galvanized steel in construction, power transmission, and transport infrastructure. Galvanizing capacity will sharply increase from 15,000 t/y to 45,000 t/y. Output for safety shields, transmission towers, and power poles will remain at 6,000 t/y, 6,000 t/y, and 3,000 t/y, respectively. The development uses nearly 4 hectares of land.

Chinese Taiwan's stainless steel prices are poised for a sixth consecutive monthly increase, driven by persistently high raw material costs, rising international stainless steel prices, and another price hike by Tsingshan in Indonesia. The implementation of Indonesia's new nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) policy on the 15th, alongside China's Q1 GDP growth of 5% beating market expectations, has pushed nickel ore prices higher. Having risen steadily since December last year with a cumulative gain of NT$19,500/ton over five months, Chinese Taiwan's stainless steel prices are widely expected to rise again in May by NT$3,000–4,000/ton.

DCE iron ore futures trended stronger today. The most-traded contract I2609 ultimately closed at 786.5 yuan/mt, up 1.16% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose 4-8 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders' offers were moderate, and steel mills purchased mainly based on rigid demand with few inquiries; overall spot transactions appeared somewhat mediocre. Fundamentals side, an SMM survey showed that global iron ore shipments totaled 32.27 million mt last week, down 1.44 million mt (4.3%) WoW. Meanwhile, total iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports reached 21.52 million mt, down sharply by 5.61 million mt WoW, a decline of 20%. The decrease in shipments was mainly driven by Brazilian ore, which was affected by the traditional rainy season. News side, the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East once again faced the threat of blockade, and US-Iran negotiations had yet to make progress. Energy prices and market sentiment continued to ferment, providing strong floor support for ore prices. Currently, the supply side may face short-term contraction. Combined with near-term demand and sentiment, iron ore prices are likely to trend on the stronger side in the short term.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] News: The second round of coke price increase was officially implemented, with procurement prices raised by 50-55 yuan/mt, effective from midnight on April 20. In terms of supply, coke producers maintained moderate per-mt profitability, production remained normal, shipments were smooth, and in-factory inventory largely stayed at low levels. Demand side, steel mills maintained high and stable operating rates, in-factory coke inventory continued to pull back, and demand for coke remained solid. However, steel mill profits did not see significant recovery, and steel mills still showed resistance sentiment toward further coke price increases. Overall, the second round of coke price increase has been implemented, but the market is in a digestion phase. A third round of increase is unlikely to materialize in the short term, and the coke market may hold up well and remain generally stable with slight rise going forward.

According to China Customs statistics, China's total chrome ore imports reached 2.4402 million tons in March 2026, rising 36.42% month-on-month and surging 83.58% year-on-year.Of the total, imports from South Africa stood at 1.966 million tons, up 36.79% month-on-month and 97.05% year-on-year; imports from Turkey were 101,600 tons, down 5.15% month-on-month but up 77.67% year-on-year; imports from Zimbabwe amounted to 169,100 tons, down 3.6% month-on-month and 10.14% year-on-year.