[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Polysilicon: The quotation for N-type recharging polysilicon is 32-34.2 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remain generally weak. A few large-volume orders are currently under negotiation, with the market watching for subsequent outcomes and policy developments. Wafers: Market prices for 183mm wafers stand at 0.88-0.9 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 0.98-1.00 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.16-1.20 yuan/piece. The low-end prices of 183mm and 210N wafers also show a downward trend, widening the price range across all wafer sizes. Top-tier players are holding prices, while smaller enterprises have concluded deals at lower prices.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,970/mt, fluctuating downward during Asian trading hours; entering European trading hours, it dipped to a low of $1,962/mt. Ahead of the US Fed's interest rate decision, the US dollar index fluctuated lower, and LME lead shook off pressure and rallied, hitting a high of $1,983.5/mt at the tail end before finally settling at $1,982.5/mt, up 0.71%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,350 yuan/mt, initially touching a low of 16,320 yuan/mt. Boosted by the rise in LME lead, it then touched a high of 16,425 yuan/mt at the tail end, with the KDJ gap widening, and finally settled at 16,415 yuan/mt, up 0.64%. On the macro front: Trump: ready to let the Russian oil sanctions waiver expire and lapse. World Gold Council survey: more central banks indicate plans to increase gold reserves. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years; the central bank decided to suspend the reduction of bond purchases from April next year. Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs: the safe and free passage of the Strait of Hormuz serves the interests of all parties. China Central Depository & Clearing Co.: plans to reduce the settlement service fee for cash bond trades executed by market makers through market-making from 20% off to 25% off. National Bureau of Statistics: in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5%; from January to May, total retail sales of consumer goods grew 1.4%. NBS: in May, new home prices in first-tier cities rose 0.2% MoM; second-hand home prices in first-tier cities rose 0.4% MoM. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead continued to hold up well, with suppliers' quotes remaining unchanged. Meanwhile, transactions for EXW cargoes from some smelters weakened. Mainstream electrolytic lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, with some even at a discount of 50 yuan/mt. In the secondary lead market, smelters showed divergent selling intentions. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 125 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price ex-works. Downstream enterprises only made just-in-time procurement, with some mainly taking delivery under long-term contracts or receiving earlier-arriving cargoes. Spot market trading was sluggish. Inventory: on June 16, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,175 mt to 303,675 mt. As of June 15, social inventory of SMM lead ingots across five regions totaled 67,700 mt, up 3,000 mt from June 8 and up 2,300 mt from June 11. Lead price forecast for today: Transactions for primary lead EXW cargoes weakened. Secondary lead smelters experienced new maintenance, keeping supply-side uncertainties in place. Downstream battery producers maintained just-in-time procurement, and some enterprises stopped spot procurement as their lead ingot inventory was adequate for just-in-time production, supplemented by long-term contract cargo pick-ups. As the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaches, beware of the drag on lead prices from a weak supply-demand situation.

According to the General Administration of Customs statistics flash, from January to May 2026, China's household appliance exports reached 1.917549 billion units, up 4.1% YoY from 1.842568 billion units in the same period last year; export value was $42.785 billion, up 4.3% YoY from $41.017 billion. In May alone, household appliance exports stood at 419.892 million units; export value was $8.982 billion, up 9.5% YoY.

SMM Steel, June 15 – According to SMM statistics, estimated total shipments of mainstream resources this week were 142,800 mt, down 33.67% WoW. By market: Table 1: Comparison of Arrivals in Mainstream Markets Source: SMM Steel Shanghai Market: HRC shipments in the Shanghai market edged up WoW this week. Specifically, resources from North China and South China edged up, while shipments from Northeast and East China remained stable. Looking ahead to next week, shipments from the north are expected to remain largely stable in the short term with limited fluctuation; for the South China market, given the slow shipment pace of some steel mills earlier, the shipment pace is expected to pick up starting from mid-to-late month, and short-term arrivals in Shanghai are likely to see a slight increase. Chart-1: Arrivals in Shanghai Market Source: SMM Steel Lecong Market: Shipments to the Lecong direction hit bottom this week. Specifically, resources from North China were mainly stable, while mainstream resources saw significant declines in total shipments, due to both shipment diversion and maintenance impacts. Looking ahead, north-to-south resources are expected to remain low in the short term. As for mainstream resources, WG remains under maintenance in the near term, making it difficult for shipments to increase significantly, but shipments from another resource may rise. Short-term arrivals in Lecong are expected to bottom out and rebound MoM. Chart-2: Arrivals in Lecong Market Source: SMM Steel SMM publishes weekly HRC shipment data for mainstream market routes every Tuesday. To subscribe or access more data, please scan the QR code below.

The most-traded iron ore contract was in the doldrums today. The most-traded contract I2609 closed at 762 yuan/mt, down 0.85% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices fell 5-10 yuan/mt from the previous day. Traders sold as the market dictated; steel mills remained cautious and purchased as needed. The market atmosphere was subdued, and spot volumes have been low so far. According to SMM statistics, this week (June 13-19), the impact on hot metal production caused by blast furnace maintenance was 1.1092 million mt, up 3,400 mt WoW. Next week (June 20-26), this impact is expected to rise to 1.1718 million mt, up 62,600 mt WoW from this week. Hot metal production is expected to peak this week, and as losses at steel mills intensify, production may pull back next week. Additionally, the domestic macro and real estate data released today remained weak overall, putting market sentiment under pressure. Overall, in the short term, iron ore prices may continue a narrow fluctuating trend in the doldrums.

Time flies as the midpoint of 2026 approaches. The zinc concentrate market has witnessed another extraordinary price cycle this year. As of June 12, domestic zinc concentrate treatment charges (TCs) plunged to -50 yuan per metric ton of zinc metal, marking the arrival of negative TCs. Meanwhile, TCs for imported zinc concentrate tumbled to -71.2 US dollars per dry metric ton, both hitting all-time record lows.

[SMM Weekly Maintenance Statistics] According to SMM statistics, this week (June 13 to June 19), the hot metal impact from blast furnace maintenance amounted to.....

June 16 (SMM) — Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper fell 0.47%, SHFE aluminum lost 1.69%, SHFE lead gained 0.96%, SHFE zinc added 0.45%, SHFE tin climbed 1.17%, and SHFE nickel edged up 0.27%. In addition, the most-traded bonded aluminum futures contract dropped 1.03%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.48%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.4%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 1.6%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract tumbled 5.01%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dipped 0.2%, rebar declined 0.38%, HRC edged down 0.24%, while stainless steel surged 2.67%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.74%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.1%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.48%, LME aluminum lost 0.71%, LME lead gained 0.18%, LME zinc added 0.14%, LME tin dropped 0.63%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.21% and COMEX silver lost 0.68%. On the domestic precious metals side, the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.63% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.65%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.44% and the most-traded palladium futures contract lost 1.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (European service) futures contract gained 1.42% to 3,834 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:39 on June 16: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, overall quoted price spreads remained wide today. The consumer market showed overall weakness in mid-to-late June, with the continued rally in silver prices dampening some demand... Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics: Value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5% in May; national economy ran generally stable and progressed toward new, higher-quality growth] In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Central Committee and the State Council. They adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated the building of a new development paradigm, earnestly carried out more proactive and impactful macro policies, and effectively addressed external shocks and challenges. Production and supply rose steadily, employment and prices remained generally stable, foreign trade continued to demonstrate resilience, new growth drivers grew stronger, and the national economy sustained a development trend of overall stability while progressing toward new, higher-quality growth. NBS data showed that in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. On a MoM basis, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.40% in May. From January to May, it grew by 5.4% YoY. [From Scale Expansion to Resilience Allocation 《China Bulk Commodity Development Report》 Released] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing today (June 16) released the *China Bulk Commodity Development Report (2026)*. According to the report, China remains one of the most important import markets for bulk commodities globally, with imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities staying at high levels. In the face of challenges, the bulk commodity market has shown enhanced resilience. The report indicates that China's bulk commodity market from 2025 to 2026 has generally exhibited a fundamental pattern of "macro pressure, market divergence, intensifying external shocks, enhanced trade resilience, and accelerated capacity building." China's bulk commodity trade is shifting from scale expansion to resilience-oriented allocation. In 2025, China's merchandise trade scale maintained relatively strong resilience, and major bulk commodity imports remained at high levels. Among them, imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities continued to demonstrate the global absorption capacity of the Chinese market. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Net Injection Today of RMB 296.5 Billion] The PBOC today conducted RMB 449.5 billion of 7-day reverse repo operations. As RMB 153 billion of 7-day reverse repo matured today, the net injection reached RMB 296.5 billion for the day. As for the US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 99.69. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 7.4%, and a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.4%. Falconio Leslie, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that after the US and Iran announced a deal, oil prices pulled back, the US Treasury market strengthened, and pressure on the Fed to raise rates this year was easing. Falconio Leslie said: "Even before the ceasefire agreement was reached, oil prices had already started to pull back, yet the two-year US Treasury yield continued to rise because the market had priced in a near-100% probability of a rate hike in December.""The current situation is that oil prices are falling, and the market is gradually withdrawing these rate hike expectations. As a result, the two-year US Treasury yield has started to pull back." The newly appointed Fed Chairman Wash will chair his first interest rate decision this week. Against the backdrop of earlier crude oil price surges reigniting inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been increasing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. But she still believes the Fed's next move will be an interest rate cut, and it will happen in 2027. US asset management company PGIM holds a fringe view, believing the Fed will hike rates three times this year to curb overheating, and then reverse the hikes in 2027 . The company had previously expected in April that the Fed would cut interest rates this year. PGIM stated that the US economy is "exceptionally strong" and inflation remains persistently high, requiring a new approach. Given this backdrop, and considering that the Fed has failed to achieve its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM said, "If the rate hikes are framed as 'precautionary' measures to address supply-side inflation and recent long-term Treasury yield fluctuations, then Wash will gain political support." However, PGIM said it expects the Fed "will reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and another in 2028, bringing the terminal rate to 3.375% — below the current rate and possibly close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: The Bank of Japan raised its key rate by 25 basis points, lifting its target rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years, in line with market expectations, after standing pat at its previous three meetings. The BOJ raised rates to the highest in 31 years on Tuesday, a long-awaited move signaling its commitment to tackling inflation risks from the Middle East conflict. At the end of the two-day meeting on Tuesday, the board voted 7-1 to raise the short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. This marked the first rate hike since last December, bringing the BOJ's policy rate to a level not seen since 1995. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo was absent from the meeting and did not vote, as he was hospitalized for medical treatment. An afternoon press conference will be led by another BOJ deputy governor, Uchida Shinichi, and his remarks will be closely watched for how the BOJ will continue to assess the negative economic impact of the Iran war. (Jinshi Data APP) [RBA holds rates steady as expected, but warns rate hikes may not be over] The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday, saying the economy is slowing despite tighter financial conditions, but warned it could hike again if needed to control inflation. The RBA said inflation remains high and the central bank will do whatever is necessary to bring it down, "including by raising the cash rate target further if needed." Markets had already priced in a hold, as domestic inflation, consumption, and employment data continued to soften; meanwhile, the Middle East peace deal and moves to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices lower, reducing inflation risks. The Board said in its statement: "The resolution of the Middle East conflict is still at an early stage, and there remain plausible scenarios where inflation is above, and activity is below, the expectations set out in the May baseline forecasts. It will take some time for global oil supply issues to be resolved, which will continue to put upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation." The unanimous decision was largely in line with expectations, with swap markets pricing in around a 30% chance of an RBA rate hike in August and only 16 basis points of tightening for the full year—equivalent to less than one hike. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: Today will bring the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 30, US May housing starts annualized, US May building permits, US May import price index month-over-month, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision for June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, Japan's central bank target rate for June 16, and other data. Also watch for: The State Council Information Office holds a press conference on national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology holds a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The RBA announces its rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. On the crude oil front: As of 11:39, crude prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 0.09% and Brent down 0.26%. With the Trump administration about to complete the plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude stockpile has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy on Monday, the SPR—established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s—has dropped to about 340 million barrels, near its all-time low. If the plan is completed, this will be the second-largest release in the history of the reserve, leaving about 243 million barrels, which is only around a third of its statutory capacity. The dwindling inventory reduces the US's flexibility in responding to future supply disruptions. A Department of Energy spokesperson said the government is managing the reserve in accordance with its intended use, which is to help stabilize the oil market, protect the US from supply disruptions, and make the US more energy-secure. (Jin10 Data App) Morgan Stanley sharply lowered its oil price forecasts for the coming quarters, as a tentative agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is expected to restore regional oil production and increase supply. Analysts including Martijn Rats said in a June 15 report that Brent crude is expected to average $90 per barrel in Q3, down from a previous forecast of $100 per barrel, and $80 per barrel in the final three months of the year, a decline of $15 from the earlier estimate. They also noted that the expected timeline for the region's production recovery has been moved forward by one to two weeks. "Many issues still need to be negotiated, and key risks remain, but this is a significant step towards de-escalating the conflict and boosting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz," they said, adding, "Production is expected to resume gradually from mid-July, with output anticipated to recover to 50% by September, 80% by December, and the remainder early in 2027." (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

China's National Bureau of Statistics said investment in high-tech industries grew 4.5% year-on-year in the first five months of 2026. Investment in lithium-ion battery manufacturing rose 24.9%, while investment in integrated circuit manufacturing increased 11%.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fluctuates at Highs, Spot Trading Sentiment Further Weakens]