SMM June 18 News: In metals markets: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets collectively rose. LME zinc led the gains with a 1.4% increase, LME tin rose 0.85%, LME aluminum gained 0.99%, SHFE zinc climbed 0.67%, and SHFE nickel added 0.6%. All other metals saw small fluctuations. Alumina main contract rose 0.52% and aluminum casting main contract rose 0.17%. Overnight, the ferrous metals complex generally fell. Iron ore dropped 1.13%, recording a three-day losing streak. HRC, rebar, and stainless steel all fell within 1%. Coking coal and coke both declined, with coking coal down 2.26% and coke down 1.25%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 1.79% and COMEX silver fell 2.93%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.84% and SHFE silver fell 1.36%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:43 AM on June 18: Macro Front China: [PBoC: Improve the Short-End Interest Rate Adjustment Mechanism] Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that the short-end interest rate adjustment mechanism will be improved. Building on the temporary overnight repo and reverse repo tools established in July 2024, the mechanism for using the tools will be improved, and the operating rates will be adjusted to the 7-day reverse repo rate plus and minus 25 basis points, narrowing the corridor from 70 basis points to 50 basis points. The open market operations toolbox will be further enriched, and overnight reverse repo operation varieties will be added at appropriate times to better match the short-term liquidity needs of the banking system. (CCTV News) [PBoC Optimizes the Mechanism for Temporary Overnight Repo and Reverse Repo Open Market Operations] To flexibly and efficiently utilize temporary overnight repo and reverse repo open market tools, the People's Bank of China decided to optimize the operational elements effective immediately. The operation time is adjusted to 15:00-15:30 on working days, and the operating rates are adjusted to the 7-day reverse repo rate minus 25bp and plus 25bp, respectively. The rules for using the tools are further clarified. When the money market overnight rate (DR001) is persistently lower or higher than the corresponding tool's operating rate, the People's Bank of China will initiate corresponding operations based on the needs of primary dealers. (People's Bank of China) [Wu Qing‘s Speech at Lujiazui Forum: Expand the Scope of the Fifth Set of Standards to the AI Field, Support Hong Kong-Listed Companies for Domestic Listing] Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, intensively released policy signals at the 2026 Lujiazui Forum on the 17th, covering reforms to the tech listing system, capital market opening-up, guiding long-term capital, and AI regulation, outlining the regulatory layer's policy blueprint for deepening capital market reforms. In his speech, Wu Qing said that the scope of the fifth set of listing standards will be expanded to the artificial intelligence field, actively supporting the listing of high-quality AI large model companies, and supporting qualified Hong Kong-listed companies to list domestically. He also stated that research on promoting RMB foreign exchange futures pilot programs will be accelerated. He further stated that efforts will be made to enhance cross-border regulatory collaboration, support legal and compliant cross-border investment and financing activities, and lawfully crack down on various cross-border illegal activities. Guiding opinions for regulating the development of capital market AI will be released in due course, with strict investigations and punishments for illegal activities such as riding hot topics, hyping concepts, or even market manipulation and insider trading in the name of technology. US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.82% to 100.38. The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting this week stood pat as widely expected. The post-meeting statement emphasized the commitment to price stability by reducing high inflation, and the dot plot reflected a strong hawkish bias among Fed policymakers. On Wednesday, June 17 US Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced after its FOMC meeting that it would keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. To date, after cutting rates at three consecutive meetings through last year-end, the FOMC has stood pat at all four monetary policy meetings in 2026. This decision was completely within market expectations. This was the first FOMC meeting with Warsh as Fed Chairman. Judging from the rate decision, his first major act in the new role was to significantly shorten the statement, including the rate guidance. The new statement emphasized only the inflation side of the dual mandate on employment and inflation. Its assessment of inflation and other economic areas was consistent with the previous one, reiterating that inflation remains high and noting that the Middle East conflict brings high uncertainty to the economy. Compared with the statement, the dot plot released after the meeting reflected an even more pronounced hawkish tilt: half of the Fed officials providing rate forecasts projected at least one rate hike this year. Bloomberg rates strategist Ira Jersey commented that given half of Fed officials foresee hikes, the market focusing on the dot plot makes the bear-flattening of the Treasury yield curve look logical. Nick Timiraos, a veteran Fed correspondent known as the "new Fed wire," described the dot plot as "very hawkish." He pointed out in the article title that the Fed held rates steady, but more officials expect the next move to be a hike. (Wall Street CN) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July stands at 64.0% (was 91.0% before the decision). The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 35.1% (was 8.9%), and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 1% (was 0%). For December, the probability that the Fed holds rates steady is 14.2% (was 38.2%), with the chances for a cumulative 25-basis-point hike at 36.4% (was 43.0%), a 50-basis-point hike at 33.8% (was 16.2%), a 75-basis-point hike at 13.5% (was 2.4%), and a 100-basis-point hike at 2.1% (was 0.1%). (Jin10 Data App) Data: Today, China's May Swift RMB share in global payments, the US Federal Reserve's June 17 interest rate decision (upper bound), US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June, and the US Conference Board Leading Index month-over-month change for May will be released. Also due are Switzerland's May trade balance and Swiss National Bank policy rate on June 18, the UK's ILO unemployment rate for the three months to April, UK May unemployment rate, UK May claimant count change, and the Bank of England‘s June 18 interest rate decision, as well as the Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted current account for April, among other data. In addition, China will open a new refined oil product pricing window. The Fed's FOMC will release its interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections. Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England will announce their interest rate decisions, with the BoE also releasing meeting minutes. Notably, on June 18, there will be no night trading session on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and DCE in China due to the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival. On June 19, the NYSE will be closed for Juneteenth. On the same day, trading of precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, equity index, and US Treasury futures contracts on the US-based CME will close early at 01:00 Beijing Time on June 20 for Juneteenth. Also due to Juneteenth, trading of Brent crude oil futures contracts on the US-based ICE will close early at 01:30 Beijing Time on June 20. Crude Oil: As of the overnight close, both oil benchmarks fell. Brent crude fell 0.38% and WTI crude fell 0.35%. On June 17 local time, senior US officials read out the 14 terms of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war and promoting the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to the media. According to the arrangement, both sides will begin 60 days of further negotiations this Friday (June 19) in Switzerland to reach a final agreement. The US commits that, effective immediately upon the signing of this memorandum and until sanctions are lifted, the US Treasury Department will issue exemption licenses for Iran's exports of crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, as well as related supporting services (including banking transactions, insurance, and transportation). (Jin10 Data App) Amid the chain reaction from easing Middle East tensions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) judged in its monthly oil market report released Wednesday that if a peace arrangement proves sustainable, the global crude market could shift to a clear oversupply next year. The IEA systematically assessed the impact of the end of the Iranian conflict for the first time in this report. The agency analyzed that as oilfields shut down for months due to the conflict gradually resume production, supply from the Gulf region will show a "gradual" recovery trend this year. On this basis, global crude oil production is expected to increase by 8 million barrels per day by next year, reaching a total scale of 110 million barrels per day. In contrast, global demand growth is estimated at about 2 million barrels per day, described as "relatively mild." The IEA noted in the report that this supply-demand mismatch will lead to a "massive surplus," which it suggested "could provide a welcome breathing space for the market and an opportunity to replenish depleted stocks or build new strategic reserves." Currently, oil inventories in OECD countries have fallen to their lowest levels since 1990. (Jin10 Data) The IEA also noted that oil prices experienced a sharp correction between May and mid-June, driven by market optimism about a peace deal and changes in Asian demand. Reduced crude oil procurement from Asia exerted clear downward pressure on prices. Affected by these combined factors, North Sea crude prices cumulatively fell by more than $40 per barrel during this period to around $82, indicating the market had already priced in expectations of increased supply and slowing demand. (Jin10 Data)

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Ore Prices Continue to Fall, Market Expectations Bearish] June 17, 2026 – The ferrochrome and chrome ore markets fluctuated slightly...

SMM, June 17: In the metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper edged up 0.33%, SHFE aluminum edged up 0.17%, SHFE lead increased 1.04%, SHFE zinc fell 0.48%, SHFE tin fell 0.33%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.22%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.58%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.1%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 1.54%, the most-traded silicon metal contract edged up, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.68%. Ferrous metals mostly fell, with iron ore down 1.89%, rebar down 0.38%, HRC down 0.3%, and stainless steel up 0.66%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.95%. For base metals on the overseas market, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper and LME nickel edged up, LME aluminum rose 0.53%, LME lead fell 0.1%, LME zinc rose 0.13%, and LME tin rose 0.27%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.08%, and COMEX silver rose 0.39%. On the domestic precious metals market: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.26%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.27%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 1.59%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract edged up. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping index futures contract fell 2.95% to 3,697.5 points. Selected futures midday quotes as of 11:39 on June 17: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 210 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,500 yuan/mt, up 565 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price for SX-EW copper was 105,410 yuan/mt, up 565 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory declined again today after two consecutive days of increases, mainly due to fewer arrivals and more shipments... Macro Front China: [NFRA: Promote the flow of financial resources toward emerging and future industries] Ding Xiangqun, head of the National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA), stated that serving the real economy is the foundation of finance. It is necessary to optimize the supply structure of funds, deliver on the five priority areas of finance, and focus on promoting the development of new quality productive forces. The country should continuously improve full-cycle tech-finance service systems, strengthen financing support and insurance guarantees, and promote the flow of financial resources toward emerging and future industries. Efficiently support the strategy of expanding domestic demand. Financial regulatory authorities should guide financial institutions to deeply engage in fiscal-financial coordination to boost domestic demand, help implement the special campaign to invigorate consumption and the action to expand capacity and improve quality in the service sector, and strengthen financial services for major projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan. Enhance financial support for vulnerable areas. Promote a substantial improvement in quality and reasonable growth in volume for loans to small and micro enterprises. Develop tailored inclusive financial products for new employment groups, namely the "two drivers and two delivery workers"—truck drivers, ride-hailing drivers, couriers, and food delivery workers. Continuously improve the level of financial services for disaster prevention, mitigation, and relief, and fortify the line of defense for public safety. (CCTV News) [PBoC: Improve the short-end interest rate adjustment mechanism] Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that the short-end interest rate adjustment mechanism will be improved. Building on the temporary overnight standing repo and reverse repo facilities established in July 2024, the mechanism for using these tools will be refined, and the operating rates will be adjusted to the 7-day reverse repo operating rate plus and minus 25 basis points, narrowing the corridor from 70 basis points to 50 basis points. The toolbox for open market operations will be further enriched, and overnight reverse repo operation instruments will be added when appropriate to better match the short-term liquidity needs of the banking system. (CCTV News) [Full text of the Action Plan for Shanghai International Financial Center to Develop Offshore Finance is released] The People's Bank of China, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and the Shanghai Municipal People's Government jointly issued the Action Plan for Shanghai International Financial Center to Develop Offshore Finance. It mentions that by the end of 2027, a preliminary institutional framework encompassing business rules, risk management and resolution, and the business environment adapted to offshore financial businesses is expected to be established, with explorations of offshore financial business at the forefront of digitalization to better serve enterprises going global. By the end of 2030, a relatively mature offshore financial institutional and legal framework is expected to gradually take shape, providing secure and reliable financial services for the sustained international investment and trade of Chinese enterprises, conducting tests for the reform of the onshore financial system, and strongly supporting the development of global allocation and risk management functions for RMB assets. By the end of 2035, it is expected to become a strategic hub for high-level coordinated and integrated development of offshore and onshore finance, leading the nation's high-standard financial opening and high-quality development. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [People's Bank of China launches the Foreign Institutional Investor and Central Banks RMB Repo Facility] To support the high-standard opening of China's financial market and facilitate RMB liquidity management for foreign central bank institutions, the People's Bank of China will use the Foreign Institutional Investor and Central Banks RMB Repo (FIMA RMB Repo) facility to provide RMB liquidity to eligible foreign central bank institutions. Overseas central bank-type institutions refer to foreign central banks or monetary authorities, international financial organizations, and sovereign wealth funds. The operational methods of the repo tool include pledge-style and outright repo. The types of bonds for repo include Chinese government bonds, central bank bills, policy financial bonds, and other high-grade RMB bonds recognized by the PBOC. The repo tenors include 7-day, 1-month, and 3-month. The repo rate is determined by adding a spread over the 7-day reverse repo operation rate in the open market. (People's Bank of China) [PBOC Optimizes Temporary Overnight Repo and Reverse Repo Operations in the Open Market] To flexibly and efficiently utilize the temporary overnight repo and reverse repo tools in the open market, the PBOC decided, effective immediately, to optimize the operational parameters. The operation time was adjusted to 15:00–15:30 on working days, and the operation rates were adjusted to the 7-day reverse repo operation rate in the open market minus 25bp and plus 25bp, respectively. To further clarify the usage rules of the tools, when the overnight money market rate (DR001) remains persistently below or above the corresponding tool operation rate, the PBOC will initiate the relevant operations in conjunction with the demand of primary dealers. (People's Bank of China) [Wu Qing: Since the New “National Nine Measures”, Social Security, Insurance, and Others Have Net Purchased RMB 1.3 Trillion of A-Shares] At the opening ceremony of the 2026 Lujiazui Forum, Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, delivered a keynote speech titled “Further Improving the Capital Market Function of Coordinating Investment and Financing to Better Serve New Quality Productive Forces and High-Quality Economic Development.” He stated that since the release of the New “National Nine Measures” over two years ago, the market value of A-shares held by social security, insurance, and other institutions had grown by 85%, with net purchases of A-shares totaling RMB 1.3 trillion. Wu Qing said that efforts should be made to actively expand funding sources, support complementary advantages between state-owned funds and private capital, guide pension funds, insurance funds, and others to increase equity investment, and facilitate the smooth circulation of “fundraising, investment, management, and exit.” (From the Wall Street Insight APP) [Zhu Hexin: Grant Higher Convenience to Entities with Sound Operations and Good Credit] Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, stated at the 2026 Lujiazui Forum that the next step would be to further shift from convenience for individual business items to convenience for business entities, granting higher convenience to those with sound operations and good credit. (From the Wall Street Insight APP) [PBOC Reverse Repos Saw Net Injection of RMB 261.3 Billion Today] The PBOC conducted RMB 420.3 billion of 7-day reverse repo operations today. With RMB 159 billion of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, a net injection of RMB 261.3 billion was realized. (Jin10 Data APP) On the US dollar side: As of 11:39, the US dollar index fell 0.03% to 99.53. Option traders are increasingly divided on the US Fed’s near-term interest rate path, placing bets that range from rate cuts in coming months to rate hikes of varying magnitudes. Swaps market pricing shows that the Fed is almost certain to hold interest rates steady at its Wednesday meeting, with all eyes turning to Chairman Warsh’s first press conference for clues on future policy. Although the US and Iran are set to formally sign a temporary peace deal, with oil prices already falling to three-month lows and offering some relief from inflationary pressures, the policy outlook remains uncertain. (Jin10 Data APP) The Federal Reserve will conclude its policy meeting in the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, and the market is now focused on a key variable: the dot plot may lack a key dot. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) after the meeting, which includes individual officials’ assessments of the interest rate path for 2026 to 2028 and beyond—the closely watched dot plot. Investors will parse the distribution of dots to gauge the overall bias of officials on the economic outlook and monetary policy. However, most Wall Street Fed watchers expect that new Chairman Warsh Kevin (Warsh Kevin) will not submit his own rate projection dot. He only assumed his post on May 22 and feels he has not yet prepared a full forecast; additionally, he has consistently been critical of the dot plot and the broader forward guidance communication framework. Should Warsh decline to submit a dot, it would break from a practice that has persisted for 14 years since the financial crisis, and could also ruffle feathers among FOMC members who rely on the dot plot to convey policy signals. Yet, this move would also serve as his first step in pushing for fundamental reforms at the Fed. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CNBC, the Federal Reserve will release its latest dot plot on Wednesday, showing officials’ expectations for the interest rate trajectory. However, most Wall Street Fed watchers expect new Fed Chairman Warsh Kevin not to participate, possibly because he feels unprepared or simply because he dislikes the dot plot. Warsh has previously spoken out against dot plots and other forward guidance methods, arguing that they constrain the Fed’s decision-making ability. Should Warsh refuse to provide a dot plot projection, it would run counter to the practice the Fed has followed for roughly 14 years since the financial crisis and could distance him from other Fed officials who support this communication tool. Yet, for Chairman Warsh, who has pledged to fundamentally reform the way the institution operates, this could serve as an effective first step. “In my opinion, he likely does not want to submit a rate forecast.”Bill English, former head of monetary policy at the US Fed and now a professor at Yale University, said, “There may be others on the committee who don’t particularly like the dot plot, and they might be willing to do the same.” According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in June was 99.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut was 0.5%. The probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged through July was 92%, with a 7.9% probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike and a 0% probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut. In other currencies: Goldman Sachs economist Akira Otani said that the Bank of Japan is very likely to raise interest rates again in January 2027, but there is high uncertainty over the timing of future rate hikes. “With underlying inflation near 2%, even a small change, such as a further modest depreciation of the yen, could significantly increase the risk of inflation exceeding 2%,” the economist noted, “Thus, the probability distribution of the timing of the next rate hike is seen as skewed towards an earlier move.” Otani added that the actual timing of the rate hike would be “significantly influenced by the progress of communication with the government.” (Jin10 Data APP) A senior official at the Reserve Bank of Australia said on Wednesday that as a tense geopolitical environment reshapes financial and economic linkages, Australian institutions need to prepare for a financial system that is more susceptible to shocks. RBA Deputy Governor Brad Jones said, “We have to accept the world as it is, not as we would like it to be, and it is against this backdrop that policymakers are intensifying efforts to ensure the financial system can cope with a more challenging risk environment.” Jones noted that the high level of foreign ownership in Australia’s fixed-income market means the country’s financial system will not be immune to external shocks. Referring to pension funds, he said, “About half of the assets in our superannuation fund industry are invested offshore.” (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Due for release today are the US May retail sales month-over-month rate, US April business inventories month-over-month rate, US May pending home sales index month-over-month rate, UK May CPI month-over-month rate, UK May retail price index month-over-month rate, eurozone May final CPI year-over-year rate, eurozone May final CPI month-over-month rate, and other data. Also in focus: ECB President Lagarde is participating in a summit on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI); the 2026 Lujiazui Forum in China takes place from June 17 to 18. Oil: As of 11:39, both oil benchmarks extended their losses from the previous four trading sessions, with WTI down 0.32% and Brent down 0.32%. Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen this Friday, with both US and Iranian sides expected to sign a preliminary agreement memorandum in Switzerland at that time, though the full text of the agreement has not yet been released. The preliminary agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz triggered wild swings in the global oil market. According to the Wall Street Journal, people familiar with the matter said that under the agreement, the US will allow Iran to immediately resume oil and fuel export sales, providing Tehran with an upfront economic incentive to help de-escalate the conflict. Provisions in the deal exempting oil sales from sanctions will take effect immediately upon the signing of the agreement this week. Meanwhile, essential services supporting oil sales, such as banking, transportation, and insurance, will also be exempted to ensure smooth execution of relevant transactions. United Against Nuclear Iran stated that a supertanker loaded with Iranian crude oil had departed from Chabahar port, crossed the US blockade, and sailed out of the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday with its transponder turned on. This marks the first such occurrence since the US imposed a maritime blockade in April this year. A senior US official said on Tuesday that while Iran will receive upfront sanctions relief for oil sales, long-term and sustained sanctions relief will depend on Iran's compliance with US demands, including issues related to the opening of the Strait and its nuclear program. The official added that Iran still will not immediately gain access to tens of billions of dollars frozen outside China. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Stainless Steel Futures Stop Rising and Pull Back, Spot Trading Weakens but Prices Hold Steady According to SMM on June 17, SS futures showed a stop-rise and pullback trend. Although the overall nonferrous metals futures market strengthened today, SHFE nickel remained in the doldrums. Additionally, after a rapid successive run-up earlier, stainless steel lacked sufficient momentum for further gains, leading to a slight pullback in futures today. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 15,190 yuan/mt. In the spot market, SS futures continued to climb during the week, lifting spot offers in tandem and strengthening them, while purchasing demand was largely released early in the week. After SS futures declined today, inquiries and transactions weakened somewhat, but spot offers remained firm. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2607 was quoted at 15,210 yuan/mt, up 115 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged 10-410 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled 304/2B coils with mill edge, average prices were flat in Wuxi and Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi rose 150 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil offers in Wuxi increased 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot markets both came under pressure and declined, with ex-China macro headwinds dominating the market and bearish sentiment spreading rapidly in the off-season. Industry expectations for the outlook weakened, end-users turned cautious, rigid demand remained sluggish, and traders concentrated on offering discounts to sell and destock. On the futures side, this week ex-China macro became...

As of now, the FOB price for Indonesian MHP nickel is $16,244/mt Ni, and the FOB price for Indonesian MHP cobalt is $51,333/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 85-86, and the MHP cobalt element payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 95. The FOB price for Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $16,330/mt Ni.

On June 17, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price remained stable.

SMM June 17 news: Metal markets: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets broadly rose, with only LME zinc, LME tin, SHFE zinc, and SHFE tin falling. LME zinc led the losses, down 0.64%, while the declines in other metals were small. LME nickel led the gains among base metals on both markets, up 0.79%. SHFE lead rose 0.77%, LME lead rose 0.71%, and other metals saw relatively small gains. The main alumina contract rose 0.73%, while the main cast aluminum contract rose 0.39%. Overnight in ferrous metals, most contracts fell aside from stainless steel. Stainless steel rose 1.16%, iron ore fell 1.04%, and HRC and rebar both fell around 0.3%. Coking coal and coke were mixed, with coking coal up 0.33% and coke down 0.6%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 0.03% and COMEX silver fell 0.08%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.06% and SHFE silver fell 0.07%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:43 am June 17: Macro Front China: [NBS: In May, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 4.5%; the national economy generally operated stably with new and quality improvements] In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments conscientiously implemented the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council. We upheld the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully, accurately, and comprehensively implemented the new development philosophy, accelerated the creation of a new development pattern, earnestly implemented more proactive and impactful macro policies, and effectively responded to external shocks and challenges. Production supply grew steadily modestly, employment and prices were generally stable, foreign trade resilience continued to manifest, new growth drivers grew stronger, and the national economy continued its development trend of general stability with new and quality improvements. NBS data showed that in May, the industrial added value of enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.5% YoY in real terms, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. On a MoM basis, the industrial added value of enterprises above the designated size increased by 0.40% in May over the previous month. From January to May, the industrial added value of enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.4% YoY. [NDRC: Standardize local investment promotion activities, and promote fair opening of competitive infrastructure sectors to business entities] On the morning of June 16, Zheng Shanjie, Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), chaired a symposium to hear opinions and suggestions on the current economic situation, systematically advancing the construction of the "Six Networks," and expanding effective domestic demand. In the next step, the NDRC will thoroughly implement the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, strengthen the planning and construction of the "Six Networks," enhance multi-network coordinated advancement, make integrated use of various government funds and new-type policy-based financial instruments, strengthen guarantees for factors like land and environmental assessments, persist in balancing quality and efficiency, accelerate transformation and implementation, and promote the formation of more physical workload. We will deeply advance the construction of a unified national market, standardize local investment promotion activities, advance the fair opening of competitive infrastructure sectors to business entities, improve the long-term mechanism for private enterprise participation in major project construction, actively attract social capital to participate in the "Six Networks" construction, and effectively stimulate the vitality of private investment. At the same time, we will deepen multi-level, regular communication and exchanges with private enterprises, strengthen forward-looking and strategic issue research, persist in integrating point-and-area and short-term-and-long-term approaches, strengthen overall coordination, and promote the growth and expansion of the private economy with pragmatic measures. (Jin10 Data APP) [Eight Departments: Aim to exceed 90% for the one-hour multimodal transshipment rate by 2030] Recently, eight departments including the Ministry of Transport jointly issued the "Action Plan for Breaking Bottlenecks in Multimodal Transport (2026-2030)" to accelerate the construction of a modern multimodal transport network. The Action Plan proposes to use approximately five years to upgrade the multimodal transport functions of around 1,000 main freight nodes, achieve a one-hour multimodal transshipment rate exceeding 90%, reach an 80% railway access rate for coastal port multimodal transport zones, and achieve a 100% railway access rate for main ports along the Yangtze River trunk line. At the same time, optimization of container rail-water intermodal security checks, "single-document" systems, and other standards and rules will achieve new breakthroughs. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.12% to 99.56%, primarily driven by optimism over a peace agreement between the US and Iran, while the market awaited the US Fed policy meeting results the next day. According to CNBC, the US Fed will release its latest dot plot on Wednesday, showing individual officials' expectations for the interest rate path. However, most Fed watchers on Wall Street expect new Fed Chairman Warsh will not participate, possibly because he feels unready, or simply because he doesn't like the dot plot. Warsh has previously spoken out against the dot plot and other forward-looking guidance methods, arguing they constrain the Fed's decision-making capabilities. If Warsh refuses to submit dot-plot projections, it would go against the Fed's roughly 14-year post-financial crisis practice and could alienate him from other Fed officials who support this communication method. Yet, for Chairman Warsh, who has promised fundamental reforms to how the institution operates, this might be an effective first step. "Given his viewpoint, it seems very possible he wouldn't want to submit rate forecasts," said Bill English, former head of the Fed's Monetary Affairs Division and now a professor at Yale University. "There are probably other committee members who are not crazy about the dot plot, and they would be willing to do that too." (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "FedWatch Tool": The probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate cut is 0.5%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through July is 92%, the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate hike is 7.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate cut is 0%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today, the US May retail sales MoM, US April business inventories MoM, US May pending home sales index MoM, UK May CPI MoM, UK May retail price index MoM, Eurozone May final CPI YoY, Eurozone May final CPI MoM, and other data will be released. Additionally, ECB President Lagarde is attending a summit on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI). China's 2026 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 17 to 18. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices on both markets fell together, with WTI oil down 5.11% and Brent oil down 4.61%, recording a four-day losing streak, mainly due to expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. According to the Wall Street Journal, informed sources said that under the agreement, the US will allow Iran to immediately resume exporting and selling oil and fuel, providing Tehran with a front-loaded economic incentive to de-escalate the conflict. The provisions in the deal waiving sanctions on oil sales will take effect immediately upon the agreement's signing this week. Meanwhile, the necessary services supporting oil sales, such as banking, shipping, and insurance, will also be exempted to ensure related transactions can proceed smoothly. The United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) group stated that a supertanker carrying Iranian crude oil has left Chabahar Port, crossed the US blockade line, and sailed out of the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday with its vessel positioning system activated. This is the first such occurrence since the US implemented a maritime blockade in April this year. A senior US official said on Tuesday that while Iran will receive upfront sanctions relief on oil sales, long-term and sustained sanctions relief will depend on Iran's compliance with US demands, including issues related to opening the strait and its nuclear program. The official added that Iran still will not immediately gain access to tens of billions of dollars in frozen overseas funds. (Jin10 Data APP) Maritime intelligence company TankerTrackers said in a social media post early on the 17th that the agency verified via satellite imagery on the 15th that at least two very-large crude carriers (VLCCs) belonging to the National Iranian Tanker Company had sailed out of the US Navy blockade line, carrying a total of 3.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil between them. This marks Iran's first crude oil export in nearly two months. Additionally, the post stated that the Stream, a tanker owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company, is departing from Pakistan's exclusive economic zone. The vessel had previously been stuck in those waters for seven weeks, waiting to return to an Iranian port. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data APP) Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that last week, US API crude inventories fell by 8.33 million barrels, following a decline of 9.119 million barrels the prior week. Last week, API crude inventories at Cushing fell by 1.523 million barrels, compared to a prior decline of 1.125 million barrels. Last week, API product gasoline inventories rose by 2.479 million barrels (prior -1.191 million barrels), and distillate inventories fell by 1.523 million barrels (prior -407,000 barrels). (Wall Street CN)

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Market Expectations Pessimistic, Transactions Continue Weak] June 16, 2026 – Ferrochrome and chrome ore markets fluctuate slightly...

June 16 (SMM) — Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper fell 0.47%, SHFE aluminum lost 1.69%, SHFE lead gained 0.96%, SHFE zinc added 0.45%, SHFE tin climbed 1.17%, and SHFE nickel edged up 0.27%. In addition, the most-traded bonded aluminum futures contract dropped 1.03%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.48%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.4%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 1.6%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract tumbled 5.01%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dipped 0.2%, rebar declined 0.38%, HRC edged down 0.24%, while stainless steel surged 2.67%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.74%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.1%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.48%, LME aluminum lost 0.71%, LME lead gained 0.18%, LME zinc added 0.14%, LME tin dropped 0.63%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.21% and COMEX silver lost 0.68%. On the domestic precious metals side, the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.63% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.65%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.44% and the most-traded palladium futures contract lost 1.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (European service) futures contract gained 1.42% to 3,834 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:39 on June 16: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, overall quoted price spreads remained wide today. The consumer market showed overall weakness in mid-to-late June, with the continued rally in silver prices dampening some demand... Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics: Value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5% in May; national economy ran generally stable and progressed toward new, higher-quality growth] In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Central Committee and the State Council. They adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated the building of a new development paradigm, earnestly carried out more proactive and impactful macro policies, and effectively addressed external shocks and challenges. Production and supply rose steadily, employment and prices remained generally stable, foreign trade continued to demonstrate resilience, new growth drivers grew stronger, and the national economy sustained a development trend of overall stability while progressing toward new, higher-quality growth. NBS data showed that in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. On a MoM basis, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.40% in May. From January to May, it grew by 5.4% YoY. [From Scale Expansion to Resilience Allocation 《China Bulk Commodity Development Report》 Released] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing today (June 16) released the *China Bulk Commodity Development Report (2026)*. According to the report, China remains one of the most important import markets for bulk commodities globally, with imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities staying at high levels. In the face of challenges, the bulk commodity market has shown enhanced resilience. The report indicates that China's bulk commodity market from 2025 to 2026 has generally exhibited a fundamental pattern of "macro pressure, market divergence, intensifying external shocks, enhanced trade resilience, and accelerated capacity building." China's bulk commodity trade is shifting from scale expansion to resilience-oriented allocation. In 2025, China's merchandise trade scale maintained relatively strong resilience, and major bulk commodity imports remained at high levels. Among them, imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities continued to demonstrate the global absorption capacity of the Chinese market. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Net Injection Today of RMB 296.5 Billion] The PBOC today conducted RMB 449.5 billion of 7-day reverse repo operations. As RMB 153 billion of 7-day reverse repo matured today, the net injection reached RMB 296.5 billion for the day. As for the US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 99.69. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 7.4%, and a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.4%. Falconio Leslie, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that after the US and Iran announced a deal, oil prices pulled back, the US Treasury market strengthened, and pressure on the Fed to raise rates this year was easing. Falconio Leslie said: "Even before the ceasefire agreement was reached, oil prices had already started to pull back, yet the two-year US Treasury yield continued to rise because the market had priced in a near-100% probability of a rate hike in December.""The current situation is that oil prices are falling, and the market is gradually withdrawing these rate hike expectations. As a result, the two-year US Treasury yield has started to pull back." The newly appointed Fed Chairman Wash will chair his first interest rate decision this week. Against the backdrop of earlier crude oil price surges reigniting inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been increasing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. But she still believes the Fed's next move will be an interest rate cut, and it will happen in 2027. US asset management company PGIM holds a fringe view, believing the Fed will hike rates three times this year to curb overheating, and then reverse the hikes in 2027 . The company had previously expected in April that the Fed would cut interest rates this year. PGIM stated that the US economy is "exceptionally strong" and inflation remains persistently high, requiring a new approach. Given this backdrop, and considering that the Fed has failed to achieve its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM said, "If the rate hikes are framed as 'precautionary' measures to address supply-side inflation and recent long-term Treasury yield fluctuations, then Wash will gain political support." However, PGIM said it expects the Fed "will reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and another in 2028, bringing the terminal rate to 3.375% — below the current rate and possibly close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: The Bank of Japan raised its key rate by 25 basis points, lifting its target rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years, in line with market expectations, after standing pat at its previous three meetings. The BOJ raised rates to the highest in 31 years on Tuesday, a long-awaited move signaling its commitment to tackling inflation risks from the Middle East conflict. At the end of the two-day meeting on Tuesday, the board voted 7-1 to raise the short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. This marked the first rate hike since last December, bringing the BOJ's policy rate to a level not seen since 1995. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo was absent from the meeting and did not vote, as he was hospitalized for medical treatment. An afternoon press conference will be led by another BOJ deputy governor, Uchida Shinichi, and his remarks will be closely watched for how the BOJ will continue to assess the negative economic impact of the Iran war. (Jinshi Data APP) [RBA holds rates steady as expected, but warns rate hikes may not be over] The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday, saying the economy is slowing despite tighter financial conditions, but warned it could hike again if needed to control inflation. The RBA said inflation remains high and the central bank will do whatever is necessary to bring it down, "including by raising the cash rate target further if needed." Markets had already priced in a hold, as domestic inflation, consumption, and employment data continued to soften; meanwhile, the Middle East peace deal and moves to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices lower, reducing inflation risks. The Board said in its statement: "The resolution of the Middle East conflict is still at an early stage, and there remain plausible scenarios where inflation is above, and activity is below, the expectations set out in the May baseline forecasts. It will take some time for global oil supply issues to be resolved, which will continue to put upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation." The unanimous decision was largely in line with expectations, with swap markets pricing in around a 30% chance of an RBA rate hike in August and only 16 basis points of tightening for the full year—equivalent to less than one hike. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: Today will bring the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 30, US May housing starts annualized, US May building permits, US May import price index month-over-month, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision for June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, Japan's central bank target rate for June 16, and other data. Also watch for: The State Council Information Office holds a press conference on national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology holds a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The RBA announces its rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. On the crude oil front: As of 11:39, crude prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 0.09% and Brent down 0.26%. With the Trump administration about to complete the plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude stockpile has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy on Monday, the SPR—established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s—has dropped to about 340 million barrels, near its all-time low. If the plan is completed, this will be the second-largest release in the history of the reserve, leaving about 243 million barrels, which is only around a third of its statutory capacity. The dwindling inventory reduces the US's flexibility in responding to future supply disruptions. A Department of Energy spokesperson said the government is managing the reserve in accordance with its intended use, which is to help stabilize the oil market, protect the US from supply disruptions, and make the US more energy-secure. (Jin10 Data App) Morgan Stanley sharply lowered its oil price forecasts for the coming quarters, as a tentative agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is expected to restore regional oil production and increase supply. Analysts including Martijn Rats said in a June 15 report that Brent crude is expected to average $90 per barrel in Q3, down from a previous forecast of $100 per barrel, and $80 per barrel in the final three months of the year, a decline of $15 from the earlier estimate. They also noted that the expected timeline for the region's production recovery has been moved forward by one to two weeks. "Many issues still need to be negotiated, and key risks remain, but this is a significant step towards de-escalating the conflict and boosting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz," they said, adding, "Production is expected to resume gradually from mid-July, with output anticipated to recover to 50% by September, 80% by December, and the remainder early in 2027." (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Extend Gains, Off-Season Stainless Steel Market Sentiment Warms Up According to SMM on June 16, SS futures showed a further strong upward momentum. Although SHFE nickel trended somewhat weaker, SS continued to hold up well. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 15,180 yuan/mt. In the spot market, driven by the sustained gains in SS futures, trading and inquiry activity for stainless steel picked up. At the same time, coupled with the news of delayed production resumptions at steel mills, although the off-season has already set in and macro uncertainties remain high, market quotes edged up to some extent on improved sentiment. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2607 was quoted at 15,095 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 125-525 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; for cold-rolled mill edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi rose 75 yuan/mt, and in Foshan rose 50 yuan/mt; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi rose 100 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotes rose 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot prices both came under pressure and weakened, as macro headwinds from outside China dominated trading and pessimistic sentiment spread rapidly during the off-season. Industry expectations for the near-term outlook turned weaker, end-users remained heavily on the sidelines, rigid demand stayed sluggish, and traders concentrated on cutting prices to sell and destock...