SMM February 13: Lead prices fluctuated rangebound during the week, with low quotation activity in the spot market. Most smelters halted shipments for the holiday, while a few enterprises, facing high finished product pressure, were willing to sell off goods, but encountered limited purchase interest. The mainstream ex-factory prices for secondary refined lead spot orders, including tax, were at discounts ranging from 100 to 0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with a few spot cargoes delivered to downstream enterprises at parity. Downstream battery producers resumed production slightly earlier than secondary lead smelters after the holiday, but digesting pre-holiday lead ingot inventory was expected to take 4 to 7 days. SMM anticipated that secondary lead enterprises would show high shipment activity at that time, while downstream purchase willingness would remain low. Losses at secondary lead smelters persisted, and the number of enterprises reducing or halting production increased during the Chinese New Year holiday. Although waste lead-acid battery prices declined slightly, sluggish trading activity in the lead industry chain weighed on lead price trends. As of February 13, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -267 yuan/mt, while for small and medium-scale enterprises it was -474 yuan/mt (by-product revenues in the model exclude tin and antimony). After the holiday, secondary lead smelters concentrated on production resumptions, leading to a surge in demand for waste lead-acid batteries; raw material costs were expected to rise significantly. If purchase willingness among downstream battery producers recovers poorly, lead price increases will face pressure, and SMM expects the loss-making trend for secondary lead to persist. 》Order to View SMM Metal Spot Historical Prices

[SMM Tin Midday Review: AI Macro Sentiment Recedes Again, Triggering Market Downward Pressure, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Falls Over 5%]

Tungsten prices kept rising through the Chinese New Year. Europe saw higher quotes but few spot deals, with APT at $1,650+/mtu and ferro-tungsten hitting $205/kg. India’s scrap market stayed strong, with drill bits at $110/kg. In China, tight supply pushed APT long-term prices up by ¥200,000 to ¥1 million/t. Shortages persist, pointing to more post-holiday gains.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session; it dipped to $1,948.5/mt upon entering the European session, but then rose due to a weakening US dollar index, touching a high of $1,976.5/mt before finally settling at $1,974.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,560 yuan/mt early in the session, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, reaching a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before finally settling at 16,665 yuan/mt, up 0.48%, forming a doji star. On the macro front: As markets awaited a series of US economic data, a weaker US dollar made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers; spot gold extended gains. The White House's Hassett predicted worsening employment: AI boosts productivity, reduces labor demand. Alphabet planned to raise about $15 billion by issuing US dollar bonds. China's Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with automakers: Multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of auto consumption. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing. Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security provided administrative guidance on employment to leading platform companies and courier firms. Three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on tax incentives for re-exported cross-border e-commerce goods. : SHFE lead stopped falling and stabilized, but as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, logistics vehicles halted in some regions, leading to reduced shipments and quotations from suppliers. Only some cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In the secondary lead sector, more smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, with most enterprises suspending quotations; a few secondary refined lead offers were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end wrap-up phase, with minimal inquiries, resulting in thin trading in the spot market. Inventory: On February 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 100 mt to 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: With previously in-transit lead ingots by rail concentratedly arriving at warehouses, social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, mainly reflected in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region warehouses. Last week, lead prices fell, prompting lead-acid battery enterprises to conduct relatively concentrated stockpiling of lead ingots, leading to a noticeable decline in lead smelters' in-factory inventory. This week being the last before the Chinese New Year, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will enter the holiday state, further weakening lead consumption. Meanwhile, with the start of the Spring Festival travel season, migrant workers have returned to their hometowns, and the number of vehicles in operation has gradually decreased. Currently, some regions no longer support road transportation. It is expected that the growth momentum of social inventory for lead ingots will slow down, and the inventory buildup of lead ingots is anticipated to be more reflected in the smelters' plant inventories. Overall, lead prices are in the doldrums ahead of the holiday. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

Copper prices rose initially then pulled back this week. Early in the week, a pullback in the US dollar and escalating US-Iran tensions pushed LME copper to $13,400/mt and SHFE copper above 103,000 yuan/mt. However, better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls, a drop in the unemployment rate, and US Fed officials emphasizing persistent high inflation later cooled expectations for interest rate cuts. The US dollar stabilized and rebounded, triggering concentrated profit-taking by bulls and a rapid price decline. Approaching the Chinese New Year, capital turned cautious. Domestic demand was already weak, and high prices further dampened procurement, amplifying the adjustment. Ore supply disruptions persist but are unlikely to cause substantial production cuts in the short term. Fundamentals, the spot market was sluggish this week as the Chinese New Year holiday neared. Both LME and SHFE copper showed deep contango structures, boosting traders' sentiment for stockpiling and arbitrage. Consequently, domestic and import premiums edged down only slightly. Holiday effects emerged on the demand side, with downstream stocking largely completed and procurement sentiment turning increasingly mediocre. Post-holiday outlook, a significant inventory buildup is expected during the holiday, keeping overall copper prices under pressure. LME copper is forecast to fluctuate between $12,800-13,400/mt, while SHFE copper is seen moving between 98,000-103,000 yuan/mt. Spot side, on the first trading day after the holiday, spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract are expected to show a high premium due to SMM's consistent pricing against the front-month contract and the price spread between futures contracts, but this is expected to correct on the second day. Spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract are anticipated to range from a discount of 300 yuan/mt to a premium of 200 yuan/mt.

[SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review] This week (February 9 – February 13), the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 540 yuan/gram and closed at 523.8 yuan/gram, up 30.9 yuan/gram or 6.27% WoW. The weekly highest price was 559.1 yuan/gram, and the lowest was 516 yuan/gram. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 436.5 yuan/gram and closed at 416.8 yuan/gram, up 9.55 yuan/gram or 2.34% WoW. The weekly highest price was 443 yuan/gram, and the lowest was 411 yuan/gram. In futures trading, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 36,713 lots, a total turnover of 19.82 billion yuan, and an open interest of 20,073 lots, a decrease of 1,369 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,112 lots, a total turnover of 7.801 billion yuan, and an open interest of 7,188 lots, a decrease of 874 lots WoW. Recent fluctuations in platinum and palladium primarily reflected sentiment transmission from the precious metals sector, with significant resonance among gold, silver, platinum, and palladium amid macro factors. The nomination of Wash as Fed Chairman in early February triggered a sharp pullback in the precious metals sector. His hawkish anti-inflation stance, advocating for "interest rate cuts + balance sheet reduction + function reduction," combined with stronger-than-expected US PPI, raised market concerns about medium and long-term support for precious metals. Expectations of balance sheet reduction may boost the US dollar, disrupt precious metals pricing logic, and lead to frequent sector corrections. Domestic and overseas platinum and palladium term structures diverged; after the price drop, strong restocking by domestic automotive catalyst producers steepened the domestic term structure slope. Strategically, Trump plans to launch a $12 billion "Gold Reserve Plan" to build a strategic reserve of critical minerals and a preferential trade zone, intending to set price floors and use tariffs and other border measures for protection, aiming to establish a rule system with internal subsidies and external barriers, excluding non-member countries from core supply chain benefits. USGS data showed the US import dependency for platinum and palladium reached 89% and 57%, respectively, in 2025, with strategic reserve premiums bullish for platinum and palladium. Additionally, attention is needed on details of new managers announced by the LME and US anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on Russian unwrought palladium. In the spot market, the approaching Chinese New Year holiday atmosphere intensified. Along with cooling investment enthusiasm in precious metals recently, aside from some end-users' rigid pre-holiday stockpiling needs, the overall spot market showed thin trading.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Weakened on Last Trading Day Before Holiday, Stainless Steel Spot Prices Remain Stable Awaiting Post-Holiday Resumption SMM, February 13: SS futures continued to decline and probe lower. On the last trading day before the Chinese New Year holiday, nonferrous metals futures collectively came under pressure and fell, with SS futures also weakening in sync, ultimately closing at 13,860 yuan/mt. In the spot market, despite the volatility in SS futures and rising high-grade NPI prices ahead of the holiday, most spot traders had already entered the holiday period, logistics and transportation were suspended, transactions were sparse, and prices maintained a stable trend, with the market quietly awaiting the post-holiday resumption. The most-traded SS futures contract pulled back. At 10:30 a.m., the SS2604 contract was quoted at 13,765 yuan/mt, down 315 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 405-605 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was reported at 8,500 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi was 14,100 yuan/mt, while in Foshan it was 14,050 yuan/mt; in Wuxi, the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil was 26,600 yuan/mt, and in Foshan it was also 26,600 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the price in Wuxi was reported at 25,750 yuan/mt; in both Wuxi and Foshan, the price for cold-rolled 430/2B coil was 7,800 yuan/mt. On the futures side, driven by weakening macro influences and narrowing fluctuations in nonferrous metals futures, the market showed a relatively stable and fluctuating trend at the beginning of the week, with trading activity experiencing a pullback. As the Chinese New Year holiday approached, market participants considered avoiding holiday risks, coupled with earlier...

February 13, 2026: Today, warrant prices were $26-40/mt, QP February, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $28-42/mt, QP March, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day; ER copper (CIF B/L) was $12-20/mt, QP March, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late February. During the day, almost all traders were on holiday, making it difficult to find offers in the spot market. It was heard that a small amount of pyrometallurgy B/L for late February arrival was closed at $35-45/mt, QP March; ER B/L for late February arrival was offered at $15-25/mt, while ER B/L for mid-to-early February arrival was offered at $10-20/mt, QP March.

The Nickel Intermediate Product Market Experienced a Holiday Slowdown, with Trading Activity Remaining Sluggish.

This week, stainless steel spot prices remained stable, but production costs increased, further narrowing the profit margins of stainless steel mills. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on the raw material prices of the day, the full cost profit margin fell to -0.58% this week; if calculated using the cost of raw material inventory, the margin reached 1.78%. On the cost side for nickel-based raw materials, SHFE nickel futures were driven higher mid-week by news of nickel mine approvals in Indonesia; high-grade NPI rose in tandem with the movement in SHFE nickel futures and expectations of tight nickel ore supply, which revived trading activity in the market as the Chinese New Year holiday approached—even though stainless steel mills had largely completed their procurement and stockpiling, traders held strong bullish sentiment. As of Friday this week, the price of high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade increased by 21.5 yuan per mtu, settling at 1,051.5 yuan/mtu. In the stainless steel scrap market, with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, trading at scrapyards gradually halted as merchants closed for the holiday, leading to a complete suspension of market activity and stable prices. Although stainless steel scrap holds an economic advantage over high-grade NPI, this advantage has not yet translated into price movements; although SS futures strengthened on news related to Indonesian nickel mines, the impact on the stainless steel scrap market was limited. Trading in February is expected to remain stagnant, with the key focus after the holiday being the pace of demand recovery; the market overall maintains optimistic expectations. As of Friday this week, the price of 304 off-cuts in Shanghai remained steady, with the latest offer around 9,650 yuan/mt. On the cost side for chromium-based raw materials, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their stable trend this week. As the Chinese New Year holiday approached, most stainless steel mills had completed their stockpiling, and trading of high-carbon ferrochrome essentially stalled; given that current prices are already at high levels, they are expected to remain stable before the holiday. As of Friday this week, the price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia held steady WoW, settling at 8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content).