[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fluctuated Downward After Opening in the Night Session, and Spot Transactions Were Relatively Sluggish]

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Fluctuates at Highs on First Trading Day After Holiday, Spot Tin Supply Tight but Demand Yet to Pick Up]

[SMM Tin Morning News: The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained a high-level sideways trend, with spot cargo transaction willingness showing initial signs of rebound]

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The tin market exhibits a pattern of "strong supply support but weak demand reality," with both SHFE tin and LME tin lacking the momentum for a unilateral breakthrough.] At midday today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) maintained a doldrums pattern, opening at 263,340 yuan/mt, slightly pulling back from the settlement price of the previous trading day. The intraday fluctuation range narrowed to 262,000-264,000 yuan/mt. Trading in the spot market was sluggish, with downstream procurement mainly driven by immediate needs and a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Regarding LME tin, overnight LME tin closed at $32,500/mt, up 0.78%, with technical pressure near the MA60 daily average, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the short term.

SMM News on May 13: As Alphamin announced the phased production resumption at the Bisie mine and the successful convening of the Myanmar tin mine production resumption meeting, market expectations for a tight future supply of tin ore have improved. However, concerns over uncertainties in global economic growth and demand prospects triggered by tariffs have also weighed on tin prices. Coupled with a significant decline in market risk appetite, tin prices, which hit a new high in early April, have since seen a notable correction. Ultimately, LME tin fell 14.46% in April, while SHFE tin dropped 9.03% in the same month. After the sharp decline in April, since entering May, except for notable fluctuations in LME tin during the first two trading days of the month, both LME tin and SHFE tin have mainly fluctuated rangebound. As of around 15:37 on May 13, LME tin was down 0.09%, trading at $32,545/mt, with its monthly line for May temporarily up 3.83%; SHFE tin was up 0.37%, trading at 262,070 yuan/mt, with its monthly line for May temporarily up 0.1%. 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard On the spot market Tin spot prices fell % in April 》View SMM Tin Spot Quotes 》Subscribe to view SMM Metal Spot Historical Prices In terms of tin spot prices: According to SMM quotes, the average price of SMM Grade 1 tin spot on March 31 was 282,200 yuan/mt, while on April 30, it was 261,200 yuan/mt. Over the course of a month, the average price fell by 21,000 yuan/mt, representing a 7.44% decline in April. Since entering May, tin spot prices have fluctuated, with the average price of SMM Grade 1 tin spot on May 13 being 262,100 yuan/mt, a slight increase of 900 yuan/mt compared to the average price of 261,200 yuan/mt on April 30, marking a 0.34% rise. Fundamentals Refined tin production in April declined both MoM and YoY Production: According to SMM data based on market exchange processing, in April 2025, China's refined tin production decreased by 0.52% MoM and fell by 8.13% YoY. The continuous tightening of the tin concentrates and scrap tin supply chains has imposed rigid constraints on capacity, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating rate. Yunnan production area: There is significant pressure on the raw material side, with Myanmar ore imports remaining below the 10,000 mt physical tonne warning line for several consecutive months. The tin concentrates treatment charge (TC) has remained at historically low levels, putting pressure on smelter profits and limiting production enthusiasm. Production resumption status: In April, the capacity utilisation rate rebounded slightly, but due to the impact of the production halt at the Bisie tin mine in the DRC (accounting for 6% of global supply) and the extended preparation period for production resumption in Myanmar, the raw material shortage has intensified, and the operating rate remains below the level of Q4 2024.​Jiangxi Production Region: Relying on the scrap tin recycling system, the recycling volume of scrap tin declined after the Lunar New Year. Coupled with the decrease in processing fees, the production costs of smelters in the Jiangxi region continued to rise, leading some smelters to gradually cut production, making it difficult to restore previous production levels in the future.​Inner Mongolia Production Region: Affected by its own mine production, production was hindered in April, resulting in a slight decline in output.​Anhui and Emerging Production Regions: Affected by the shortage of scrap and tin concentrates, overall production fell short of expectations, and the operating rate declined slightly. 》Click to view details The operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi remain low 》Click to access the SMM Tin Industry Chain Database According to SMM's processing data obtained through in-depth market surveys, as of May 9, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, remained at a low level, with a combined operating rate of 57.16%. Yunnan: The operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan remained low due to a shortage of raw materials, significantly lower than the level in Q4 2024. The imports of tin ore from Myanmar have been below the 5,000 mt warning line for several consecutive months. Additionally, the Bisie tin mine in the DRC has not yet fully resumed production. Alphamin Resources Corp. announced a phased resumption of operations at the Bisie mine, emphasizing the gradual return of employees and the stockpiling of sufficient supplies to ensure the continuity of production resumptions. It is expected that the resumption of production will alleviate the supply tightness originally scheduled for Q2 2025, but a full recovery will take several months. Normalization of Low Operating Rates: The operating rates of smelters in Jiangxi remain low, primarily relying on the scrap tin recycling system. Some enterprises have been forced to cut production due to insufficient scrap. Intensified Cost Pressures: The difficulty in recycling scrap tin has increased, coupled with a decrease in processing fees, leading to a continuous rise in production costs for enterprises. Some production capacities may permanently exit the market. Suppressed End-Use Demand: High tin ingot prices have led to weak restocking intentions in the electronics/home appliance industries, causing blockages in the industry chain transmission and further reducing the circulation of scrap. SMM Reports Increase in Social Inventory of Tin Ingots in Three Regions Domestic Social Inventory of Tin Ingots: According to an SMM survey, as of May 9, the total social inventory of tin ingots in the three regions surveyed by SMM was 10,193 mt, an increase of 360 mt compared to the inventory data from the previous trading week. LME Tin Inventory: The LME tin inventory data on March 31 was 3,050 mt, and on April 30, it was 2,755 mt, indicating a decline in LME tin inventory in April. The latest LME tin inventory data on May 13 was 2,790 mt, showing a slight increase compared to April 30. SMM Outlook Macro Aspects: Following the release of the joint statement from the China-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks, market concerns about global trade conflicts have eased, and market risk appetite has rebounded. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of China's total social financing, new RMB loans, and official PMI data for May, as well as US data such as April's CPI, weekly initial jobless claims, April's core PCE price index, and May's PMI on tin prices. Fundamentals: In terms of supply: Based on SMM's estimates, it is expected that with the resumption of production by some enterprises that halted operations for maintenance, refined tin production in May may increase QoQ. Additionally, since the restart of the Bisie tin mine, the first batch of fully documented and approved tin concentrates available for export was shipped by truck on May 9, 2025. According to SMM, the transportation cycle for tin concentrates from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to Asia typically takes 4-6 weeks. The first batch shipped on May 9 is expected to enter the smelting process in June. In the short term, the spot tin market will still face inventory tightness pressures. However, as the phased resumption of production at the Bisie tin mine progresses, it may curb the speculative sentiment that had been driven by geopolitical risks, thereby suppressing SHFE tin prices. On the demand side: No significant improvement has been observed so far. The spot market remains sluggish due to high tin prices, and it is expected that until new demand drivers emerge, the weak demand situation will continue to exert certain pressure on tin prices. In summary, the favourable macro environment may support tin prices, while the weak supply and demand on the fundamentals side, along with the easing of market expectations for tight supply, have weakened the fundamental support for tin prices. Before significant improvements occur in the tin market's fundamentals, short-term attention should be paid to the guidance of macro trends on tin prices. It is expected that until significant favourable or unfavourable macro factors emerge, tin prices may continue to fluctuate rangebound. Recommended Readings: 》SMM Releases Metal Production Data for April 2025 》Analysis of the Global and Domestic Tin Market Supply and Demand Fundamentals in Q1 2025 [SMM Analysis] 》[SMM Analysis] Operating Rates of Refined Tin Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Remain Low, with Tight Supply of Raw Materials

This week, SHFE tin prices initially stabilized before declining, with a significant correction during the week. At the beginning of the week, the most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated rangebound around 264,000-266,000 yuan/mt. Mid-week, prices plummeted, triggered by market rumors that the first batch of tin ore from Myanmar's Wa region had obtained export licenses (later verified that most miners had not paid fees, and production resumptions fell short of expectations). On the night session of May 29, the most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 256,880 yuan/mt, with a daily decline of 2.05%. Expectations of supply recovery, coupled with weak demand, led bears to dominate the market. The most-traded SHFE tin contract fell below key support levels (such as the 260,000 yuan/mt threshold), with the short-term trading range shifting down to 250,000-270,000 yuan/mt. Spot tin ingot market transactions: Price declines stimulated restocking. Trading was sluggish at the beginning of the week, with smelters maintaining firm quotes but actual transactions being scarce. Downstream caution: End-users made just-in-time procurement only, with traders reporting "few spot purchases at current prices, with a focus on deferred pricing." Restocking was released after the price decline (May 29). Low prices stimulated demand: After tin prices fell below 260,000 yuan/mt, downstream restocking willingness increased amid price dips. Some end-user enterprises made just-in-time procurement, with traders achieving over 100 mt in daily transactions (compared to a previous daily average of approximately 20-30 mt).

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,570.5/mt. After initial fluctuations, it trended lower, hitting a low of $9,478.0/mt during the session.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Domestic tin market generally shows a pattern of weak supply and demand; tin prices may continue to fluctuate rangebound] On the international macro front, the US GDP contracted by 0.3% QoQ in Q1, with core PCE inflation rising to 3.5%, consumer confidence falling to a historic low, and the manufacturing PMI pulling back to 48.7, indicating increased downward pressure on the economy. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, emphasizing the heightened risks of inflation and rising unemployment. The US dollar index fluctuated at highs, suppressing the overall valuation of the non-ferrous metals sector. Domestically, the tin ore market generally shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. In terms of supply, refined tin production is expected to decline MoM in May, but the spot tin market will still face inventory tightness in the short term. The Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo resumed production in phases, with the first batch of tin concentrates shipped on May 9. It is expected to enter the smelting process in June, making it difficult to alleviate the tight supply situation in the short term. On the demand side, no significant improvement has been observed so far. High tin ingot prices have led to sluggish restocking willingness in the electronics/home appliance industries, causing blockages in industry chain transmission and further reducing the circulation of scrap. The operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces remained low, with a combined operating rate of 56.85%. TCs were at historic lows, putting pressure on smelting profits. Looking ahead, it is expected that before any significant favourable or unfavourable macro factors emerge, tin prices may continue to fluctuate rangebound. Investors need to closely monitor the progress of Sino-US economic and trade talks, the trend of the US dollar, and changes in domestic policies, and operate cautiously...

SHFE tin prices opened lower and continued to decline during the night session, with the spot market potentially heating up. [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) Zheng Shanjie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): China's economy has a solid foundation, strong resilience, and great potential, and the fundamental trend of long-term positive growth remains unchanged and will not change. (Bullish ★) (2) The European Commission plans to impose a 2-euro tax on small parcels entering the EU. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, hoping that the EU will adhere to its commitment to openness. (Bullish ★) (3) China Passenger Car Association (CPCA): From May 1-18, nationwide passenger car retail sales increased 12% YoY and 18% MoM. (Bullish ★) (4) Tariffs - (i) It is reported that the EU plans to propose a trade initiative with the US to advance negotiations. (ii) Nike will raise prices in the US, and Amazon's CEO stated that tariffs have not reduced demand. (iii) Lutnick: He hopes to reach trade agreements with most major partners before the tariff suspension expires this summer. (Neutral)

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,500.5/mt. After fluctuating higher in early trading, it pulled back and touched a low of $9,495/mt.