[Production Under Pressure, Supply Marginal Reduction, Silicon Prices Remain Under Pressure] Currently, the silicon metal industry chain is showing a clear game-playing pattern, with structural divergence between upstream and midstream. On the supply side, silicon enterprises are incurring cash flow losses, and a few have undergone maintenance and production halts. As the actual output reduction has been limited so far, it has not had a directional impact on market sentiment. Silicon enterprises are holding prices firm and unwilling to lower quotations to boost orders, leading to an accumulation trend in industry in-factory inventory. In the midstream, social inventory has been destocking for several consecutive weeks. Trading firms engaging in both spot and futures markets are preferring transactions at low futures levels, and inventories in the trade circulation sector continue to destock. The tightening of circulating supply has driven the spot-futures price spread to strengthen, with spot prices showing greater resistance to declines than futures.

Iron ore futures trended lower today. The most-traded DCE I2609 contract closed at 715 yuan/mt, down 3.31% from the previous trading session. Spot prices at Qingdao Port fell 15-20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Trader quoting enthusiasm was low, steel mill procurement was mostly for rigid demand, and overall spot transaction sentiment was sluggish. From a fundamental perspective, iron ore inventory continued structural divergence. Total inventory at 10 ports tracked by SMM stood at 106.92 million mt, up 1.29 million mt MoM, mainly driven by buildup of coarse fines and lump ore, while pellet inventory remained at a four-year low. From a macro perspective, escalating US-Iran tensions and their spillover triggered panic sentiment in the market, which spread to the iron ore futures market, a risk product, leading to sell-offs and dragging down overall prices. In the short term, iron ore prices may continue to decline amid panic sentiment. [SMM Steel]

SMM July 30 news: Price review: As of Thursday this week, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,707.36 yuan/mt, down 6.01 yuan/mt from the previous Thursday. Among regions, Shandong reported 2,700-2,750 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous Thursday; Henan reported 2,720-2,780 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt; Shanxi reported 2,720-2,760 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt; Guangxi reported 2,600-2,670 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt; and Guizhou reported 2,760-2,800 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous Thursday. Markets outside China: As of July 30, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $346/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $34.15/mt and a USD/CNY selling rate around 6.78. This translated to a selling price at major Chinese ports of about 2,991.45 yuan/mt, which was 284.09 yuan/mt higher than the alumina index price. One ex-China spot alumina transaction was heard this week, with details as follows: (1) On July 27, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded ex-China at $332/mt FOB Indonesia, for loading between end-July and early August. China: According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, total built capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina nationwide was 118.42 million mt/year, with operating capacity at 88.43 million mt/year. The national weekly operating rate fell 0.36 percentage point WoW to 74.68%. Specifically, Shandong’s weekly operating rate edged down 0.02 ppt WoW to 89.29%; Shanxi’s rose 0.26 ppt WoW to 63.72%; Henan’s dropped 4.83 ppt WoW to 53.16%; Guangxi’s increased 2.47 ppt WoW to 81.34%; Guizhou’s decreased 2.53 ppt WoW to 83.47%. In the spot market, three deals were done this week. Gansu procured 20,000 mt of spot alumina, with delivered prices of 2,930 yuan/mt and 2,880 yuan/mt. Qinghai saw a 10,000 mt spot alumina deal at a delivered price of 2,900 yuan/mt. Yunnan purchased 5,000 mt of spot alumina at an EXW price of 2,600 yuan/mt. Alumina prices fell steadily this week, with the overall market deeply bearish and prices still having downside room. This morning, the most-traded futures contract dropped to a low of 2,610 yuan/mt. In the short term, the round 2,600 yuan/mt mark provided some support, but in the long term, futures prices could break below 2,600 yuan/mt. Supply side, alumina production edged down this week, mainly because enterprises in different regions conducted scheduled maintenance, leading to a slight contraction in overall output, though the decline was limited. Inventory performance was mixed: aluminum smelters' raw material inventory rose 7,000 mt WoW to 3.387 million mt, as some smelters deemed current prices had fallen to a relatively low level after the sustained decline in alumina prices and began to buy moderate volumes to restock; alumina refineries' finished product inventories fell 18,000 mt to 1.217 million mt, with destocking taking place as refineries consumed in-factory inventory for downstream deliveries during maintenance. Warrant inventory increased 23,000 mt WoW to 254,000 mt, as some enterprises opted to ship to delivery warehouses. Notably, port inventory surged 111,000 mt to 945,000 mt this week. Although some cargoes entered bonded areas and are not yet flowing into the Chinese market, the overall import volume is still rising, exerting significant pressure on the Chinese market. In markets outside China, Indonesia restricted shipments due to rare earth elements in some alumina, causing short-term disruption to ex-China supply, but the Indonesian alumina traded last week is expected to be unaffected. Additionally, impacted by a hurricane, Jamaica's alumina production stood at 267,100 mt in Q1 2026, down 30.3% YoY, and is expected to gradually recover in Q2 and Q3. Overall ex-China alumina prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs in the near term. Looking ahead to next week, domestic spot prices will likely extend their decline, as spot premiums over futures still have some room to compress and downward pressure has not been fully released; the futures market will likely consolidate on a weak note, with near-term attention on support at 2,600 yuan/mt, while medium and long-term downside risks remain. On the inventory front, as some alumina refineries complete maintenance and production gradually recovers, the cumulative effect on the supply side will continue to intensify market pressure, and domestic inventory is expected to see further inventory buildup next week. [All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]

[SMM Lithium Battery Anode Raw Material Market Weekly Review: Artificial Graphite Stable with Expectations of Price Increase, Natural Graphite Consolidating at Lows] July 30 News: This week, China's artificial graphite market remained stable overall.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, with month-end approaching, downstream enterprises are expected to still primarily purchase based on rigid demand. The slight intraday uptick in SHFE copper prices today dampened market purchasing sentiment, and spot trading activity tomorrow is likely to decline compared with the previous trading day. According to SMM, current downstream purchase willingness is largely concentrated at premiums below 200 yuan/mt, with a significant psychological price gap between buyers and sellers. Suppliers may continue to lower offers to facilitate deals. Low-priced non-registered copper, due to its wide price spread with registered copper, has seen relatively decent transactions for some cargoes, but its boosting effect on overall demand is limited. As for inventory, SMM recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 69,500 mt, down 500 mt WoW from Monday; social inventory in Jiangsu at 21,200 mt, down 500 mt WoW from Monday. East China inventory saw slight destocking, still providing some support for spot premiums. However, the current decline in inventory is relatively limited, and offers for cargoes with invoices dated next month are relatively ample. Overall, against the backdrop of low inventory providing support, but weakening month-end consumption and strong downstream desire to bargain down prices, spot Shanghai copper prices against the SHFE copper 2608 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow, but the overall center may continue to shift slightly lower.

[SMM Weekly Review: Polysilicon Awaits Cost Meeting Plan, Module Prices Stabilize on Profit-Protection Willingness] This week, China's module prices showed signs of stabilizing. Due to the poor financial performance of some enterprises in mid-year, with companies in a continuous state of losses, the sentiment of competing on price to sell began to wane, shifting from previously rushing shipments to now prioritizing profit protection. Module prices began to show stability. However, affected by the pace of warehouse withdrawals of low-efficiency modules, low-price orders still existed in the market, and distributed prices were relatively divergent. On the centralized side, recent project tenders were scarce, and demand recovery was slower than expected.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: US Fed Decision Settles, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Shot Up Quickly in the Morning Before Pulling Back Under Pressure]

[Ningbo zinc: traders take a laid-back approach to shipments, spot premiums remain firm] The transaction prices of mainstream brand 0# zinc in the Ningbo market were around 24,715-24,825 yuan/mt. For conventional brands in Ningbo, the premium quoted against the 2609 contract was 5 yuan/mt, and against Shanghai spot zinc the quoted premium was 25 yuan/mt. In the Ningbo area, mainstream brands are primarily quoted against the 2609 contract...

[7.29 Morning Meeting Minutes] The US Fed is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a press conference as usual at 2:30 a.m., which has been dubbed by the industry as the most unpredictable Fed decision. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) plunged sharply in the night session, with prices gradually rebounding in the morning session before closing at 131,660 yuan/mt, up 0.08%. The short-term trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2609) is expected to be 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Morning Tin Report: US Fed holds rates for 5th straight time, SHFE tin 2609 contract returns to 418,000]