[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Center Moves Up, Spot Stainless Steel Market Sentiment Recovers According to SMM news on August 4, SS futures shot up and probed higher overall. Near the close of the night session, driven by fund operations, SHFE nickel and SS futures shot up quickly. Although SS pulled back briefly at the morning open, it had risen significantly overall. At the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,470 yuan/mt. Spot market, buoyed by the rally in SS futures, traders for stainless steel agents raised their quotes even as steel mill spot guidance prices held steady. Market activity picked up and inquiry and transaction performance was moderate. The most-traded SS futures contract: at 10:15 AM, SS2609 was at 14,870 yuan/mt, up 345 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 200–550 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, average prices: Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil stable; cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil (Wuxi up 50 yuan/mt, Foshan up 75 yuan/mt); Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil quote flat in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coil flat in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, macro sentiment turned bearish and dominated metals market trends, and stainless steel futures consolidated on a subdued note under overall pressure. The US Fed left interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week as expected, but its overall tone was hawkish. Commodity valuations came under broad pressure, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened across the board. Dragged down by the contagion of macro headwinds, SS futures...

SMM August 4 At 11:30 today, the futures closing price was 106,820 yuan/mt, up 990 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and average spot premiums were 230 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices rose 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, the copper scrap sales sentiment index rose to 2.59, and the purchasing sentiment index fell to 1.97. The price spread between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,169 yuan/mt, up 714 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price spread between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,870 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, with rising copper prices, purchasing sentiment among downstream scrap utilization enterprises was dampened. Although some regions in Jiangxi relaxed controls on "reverse invoicing", only a few enterprises resumed production last week. As local governments and tax authorities have not yet issued a clear notice, most secondary copper rod enterprises dare not rashly resume production.

[Zinc in Ningbo: Traders Raise Quotes, Ningbo Premium Rises MoM] The transaction price of mainstream 0# zinc in Ningbo was around 24,920-25,015 yuan/mt. Ningbo conventional brands quoted a premium of 20 yuan/mt against the 2609 contract, and a premium of 30 yuan/mt against Shanghai spot zinc. In Ningbo, mainstream quotes were mainly against the 2609 contract..

[Shanghai Zinc: Traders Continued to Hold Prices Firm, Spot Premiums Rose MoM] Today, mainstream transaction prices for #0 zinc were concentrated at 24,910-25,045 yuan/mt, Shuangyan had no transactions, while mainstream transaction prices for #1 zinc stood at 24,840-24,975 yuan/mt. In morning trading, offers against the SMM average price were at premiums of 40-60 yuan/mt, with no offers reported against the futures contract...

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Tomorrow, the SHFE copper price center is expected to rise above 106,500 yuan/mt, significantly dampening downstream purchases. Although it is still in the purchasing cycle at the beginning of the month, some downstream users have rigid restocking demand, and purchasing sentiment has slightly rebounded compared to the previous trading day. However, actual purchases remain cautious, with suppliers continuously lowering quotes before transactions were made. Meanwhile, low-priced non-registered copper was traded at a premium of around 50 yuan/mt, and the price spread with registered standard-quality copper further widened, exerting some pressure on standard-quality copper quotes. The backwardation structure between nearby months has narrowed compared to earlier periods, marginally weakening the basis for suppliers to hold prices firm. Overall, under the combined effect of high copper prices dampening downstream purchases, low-priced supply impacting the market, and increased willingness to sell among suppliers, spot copper quotes against the SHFE copper 2608 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow, but the overall price center may shift slightly lower.

[Guangdong: Trader Offers Remain Firm, Spot Premiums Edge Up] Guangdong mainstream 0# zinc traded at 25,010-25,050 yuan/mt, mainstream brands quoted at a discount of 120-60 yuan/mt against the 2609 contract, and a discount of 70 yuan/mt against spot Shanghai, with the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread remaining...

SMM Nickel News, August 4: Macro and Market News: (1) The US and Iran give conflicting accounts of negotiations: Trump insists talks with Iran are underway, divided into two phases—separate discussions on the Strait of Hormuz reopening and denuclearization—and claims the strait will reopen by August 4 at the latest; Iran denies talks with the US, stating it is only advancing related negotiations with Oman. (2) US Fed's Williams: Optimistic that inflationary pressures will gradually ease. The Fed will act to achieve price stability if inflation does not return to the 2% path as expected. Spot Market: On August 4, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 133,400 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,150 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day, and the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -300 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) surged in early trading, closing the morning session at 132,650 yuan/mt, up 1.55%. Nickel prices rallied sharply today, driven by market rumors of quota tightening as the period enters a critical phase for approving Indonesia's supplementary RKAB nickel ore quotas. Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Bahlil Lahadalia, stated on August 3 that the government will implement a "measured relaxation" of the RKAB, with additional quotas expected to be released gradually while maintaining the market supply-demand balance. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt range in the near term.

In North China today, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract was quoted at a premium of 10–80 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 45 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the prior trading day. The average transaction price stood at 106,695 yuan/mt, up 880 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

On August 4, the SMM #1 refined nickel average price was 133,400 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,150 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the premium range for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel was -300 to 400 yuan/mt.

[8.4 Morning Briefing] Trump stated that an agreement has been reached regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and an agreement on denuclearization will also be reached, with negotiations scheduled to begin on Monday afternoon; Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to the pre-conflict state, and the new shipping lane agreed with Oman will be determined through mutual consultations. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged below 130,000 yuan in the morning session, closing at 129,520 yuan/mt at the end of the morning session, down 1.91%. As U.S.-Iran negotiations begin, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume navigation, sulfur cost support has weakened, and nickel prices have fallen sharply. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt.