SMM Nickel News, May 13: Macro and market news: (1) The US overall CPI annual rate in April was 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.7% and hitting a new high since May 2023, with the energy index contributing over 40% of the overall increase. (2) Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated on May 12 that ending hostilities and lifting the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz were preconditions for any negotiations with the US. Spot market: On May 13, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,250 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while premiums for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged at -700-500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract moved sideways in the morning session, closing at 146,830 yuan/mt, down 0.07%. Although Iran and the US had previously come close to reaching a framework agreement, the negotiations ultimately failed to produce formal terms. If the geopolitical deadlock continues to escalate and sulfur supply constraints remain unresolved, nickel prices still have upside room. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 145,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

[Macro Policy and Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers: Aluminum Prices Move Sideways] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum outside China has not yet subsided, and there remains a supply gap in ex-China aluminum, with the strong LME market transmitting to China and providing support for aluminum prices. However, the continuation of inventory buildup exceeding expectations in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. Meanwhile, tightened invoicing regulations may lead to structural tightness in spot cargo, and the weakening spot market further limits the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Increasing Mine-Side Disruptions, LME Zinc Continues to Rally] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,482/mt. At the beginning of the session, LME zinc briefly dipped to a low of $3,457/mt. Subsequently, bulls increased their open interest, and LME zinc fluctuated upward throughout the session, touching a high of $3,542.5/mt near the close. It ultimately closed higher at $3,532.5/mt, up $50.5/mt, a gain of 1.45%. Trading volume increased to 15,265 lots, and open interest rose by 727 lots to 242,000 lots.

SMM Nickel News, May 12: Macro and market news: (1) An Iranian official said on May 11 that serious disagreements existed between Iran and the US in negotiations over the disposal of enriched uranium, the duration of uranium enrichment suspension, and war reparations. (2) The PBOC released its Q1 2026 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report. The report proposed continuing to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, flexibly utilizing various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity and relatively accommodative social financing conditions. The report also noted that as of month-end March, financial institutions had signed stock buyback and stake-increase loan contracts totaling approximately 370 billion yuan, with over 180 billion yuan already disbursed. Spot market: On May 12, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 1,450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,200 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, while domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -700 to 500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract surged in early trading before dropping sharply, closing the morning session at 145,980 yuan/mt, down 0.71%. Although Iran and the US had previously come close to reaching an agreement framework, the negotiations ultimately failed to sign formal terms. If the geopolitical stalemate continues to escalate and sulfur supply constraints remain unresolved, nickel prices still have upside room. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 145,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices in North China against the front-month contract were reported at an average discount of 250 yuan/mt to a discount of 130 yuan/mt, with the average discount of 190 yuan/mt down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 106,535 yuan/mt, up 2,450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at and dipped below $13,693.5/mt, moved sideways at the beginning of the session, then the copper price center fluctuated upward and probed up to $13,969/mt near the end of the session, before fluctuating downward to finally close at $13,920/mt, up 2.84%, with trading volume at 26,800 lots and open interest at 272,000 lots, an increase of 1,201 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 105,500 yuan/mt, dipped to 105,390 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then the copper price center gradually shifted upward and touched a high of 107,350 yuan/mt near the end of the session, before fluctuating downward to finally close at 106,770 yuan/mt, up 2.35%, with trading volume at 75,900 lots and open interest at 209,000 lots, an increase of 4,829 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Market Concerns Over Supply Intensify, LME Zinc Rallies] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,437/mt. Early in the session, LME zinc fluctuated downward, reaching a low of $3,405/mt during European trading hours. Subsequently, bulls increased their positions, and LME zinc fluctuated upward throughout, touching a high of $3,488/mt near the close. It finally closed up at $3,482/mt, up $41/mt, or 1.19%. Trading volume increased to 11,012 lots, and open interest rose by 1,090 lots to 241,000 lots.

Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices in North China against the front-month contract were reported at an average discount of 240 yuan/mt to a discount of 120 yuan/mt, with the average discount of 180 yuan/mt down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 104,085 yuan/mt, up 1,545 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM Nickel News, May 11: Macro and market news: (1) Iran submitted its feedback on the US proposal to Pakistan. According to Iran's feedback, negotiations at this stage should focus on ending the war. The US called it "completely unacceptable." (2) NBS: In April, CPI rose 1.2% YoY and PPI rose 2.8% YoY; consumer prices rose 1.2% YoY. Spot market: On May 11, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 1,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,200 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from 800-300 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract rebounded during the morning session, closing at 148,320 yuan/mt, up 0.86%. Although Iran and the US were previously close to reaching a framework agreement, negotiations ultimately failed to sign formal terms. If the geopolitical deadlock continues to escalate and sulfur supply constraints remain unresolved, nickel prices still have upside room. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 145,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

On May 11, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 1,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,200 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China's mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -800-300 yuan/mt.