SMM August 21, 2026 — China's praseodymium-neodymium (NdPr) oxide market followed a "weakened first, recovered later" pattern this week (August 17-21). From Monday to Thursday, spot prices drifted lower under pressure from volatile futures and cautious downstream purchasing, with the average price easing from around CNY 722,000/mt (about 107,400/mt) to roughly CNY 718,000/mt (106,800/mt). On Friday, major producers re-entered the market to buy, sentiment improved markedly and holders raised offers across the board, lifting the average price to CNY 726,500/mt (about $108,100/mt) — a sharp one-day rebound. (Exchange rate: 1 USD = 6.72 CNY, August 21, 2026) 1. Weekly market review NdPr oxide prices fell early in the week before rebounding on Friday. On Monday, the market opened stable: the quoted range held at CNY 720,000-724,000/mt (107,100-107,700/mt), flat with the previous Friday, though trading was thin. On Tuesday, futures volatility dragged spot offers down after midday and the market broke below the CNY 720,000/mt threshold, with the average easing to CNY 718,000/mt. Wednesday saw a stable but weak session at CNY 718,000-720,000/mt. On Thursday, prices continued to edge lower, hitting a weekly low of CNY 718,500/mt on average, with the range narrowing to CNY 717,000-720,000/mt. On Friday, major buyers' entry into the market quickly absorbed low-priced cargo, holders raised offers across the board and the average price jumped to CNY 726,500/mt, in a range of CNY 725,000-728,000/mt (107,900-108,300/mt) — a single-day gain of about CNY 8,000/mt (+1.1%) that largely recouped the week's losses. 2. Key drivers 1. Futures volatility remains the main transmission channel for spot sentiment. From the start of the week through midweek, fluctuations in NdPr oxide futures repeatedly shaped spot sentiment; Tuesday's afternoon pullback in the futures market directly dragged spot offers lower and turned the mood bearish. On Friday, news of major buyers' procurement pushed futures up and spot followed. Futures-spot linkage was the dominant price driver this week. 2. Cautious downstream buying met with traders' low-price sales. From Monday to Thursday, metal producers showed little appetite to purchase, inquiries were scarce and trading remained subdued, while some traders kept selling at low prices and capped any rebound. Once low-priced cargo tightened on Friday, holders' willingness to sell cheap fell sharply. 3. Major buyers' procurement was the turning point. On Friday, large producers entered the market for NdPr oxide, inquiries picked up notably, holders raised offers and low-priced cargo became hard to find — the direct catalyst behind the market's shift from weak to firm. 4. Upstream and downstream diverged. Rare earth ore circulation remained sluggish overall and ore prices kept easing, while the oxide segment stabilized and recovered on support from major buyers. Demand from magnet material makers was mixed through the week — "clearly improving" feedback on Monday faded thereafter, and by Friday buyers turned cautious again — suggesting downstream transmission is not yet solid. 3. Outlook In the near term, major buyers' procurement provides solid support for NdPr oxide prices: low-priced cargo has tightened, holders are quoting firmly, and the price center is likely to hold above CNY 725,000/mt. Two risks need watching, however. First, inquiry activity had already cooled by Friday afternoon, magnet makers remained cautious and actual transaction follow-through was limited. Second, futures volatility could return — if futures pull back, spot prices face downside risk again. Key factors to track: whether major buyers sustain their purchasing, the durability of the recovery in magnet material orders, and the direction of NdPr oxide futures. Until demand forms a clear uptrend, prices are expected to remain range-bound with a modestly firmer bias.

[Flat products]Today HRC and other flat-product export prices were mostly steady day on day, with some prices up by 1 USD/tonne and HRC transactions concentrated in the 486-489 USD/tonne range. Market enquiries were reasonable today and some traders take an optimistic view of the outlook, keeping offers relatively firm, though actual deals were limited. [Billet]Today billet export FOB prices edged up by 2 USD/tonne, with Jiangyin port offers at 450-455 USD/tonne. According to market feedback, the futures market pushed basis-priced offers slightly higher today; prices are currently inverted, exporters show little willingness to sell at low levels, and the market has largely stayed on the sidelines, leaving deals unremarkable. [Rebar]Today rebar export offers at Tianjin port edged up by 2 USD/tonne, with overall transactions at 474-479 USD/tonne. According to exporters, the rally on the futures board lifted spot offers in step, but overseas end-users are largely on the sidelines with limited willingness to accept higher prices, leaving overall deals weak.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Move Sideways; Spot Quotes Stable, Cost Support Emerges Amid Weak Demand According to SMM on August 20, SS futures consolidated on a strong note. Although the night session was boosted by a weaker US dollar, it gradually pulled back after the morning open, with limited intraday fluctuations. At the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,300 yuan/mt. Spot market side, following the sideways movement pace of SS futures, stainless steel spot quotes were largely stable, with transactions remaining sluggish. Although weak demand is hard to change, currently stainless steel mill profit margins are narrow, and cost side support for prices has strengthened, providing bottom support as well. The most-traded SS contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2610 was reported at 14,345 yuan/mt, up 85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi,304/2B spot premiums were in the range of 375-525 yuan/mt. In the spot market, average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was stable; cold-rolled 304/2B coils with mill edge, average price in Wuxi rose 25 yuan/mt, and in Foshan rose 25 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotes were stable; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were unchanged. This week, stainless steel futures were continuously disturbed by macro sentiment, overall maintaining a weak pullback trend. During the week, Indonesia's RKAB nickel mine approval news repeatedly disturbed industry expectations, coupled with the US Fed's hawkish policy stance and the unresolved US-Iran geopolitical conflict, market macro uncertainty stayed high, multiple bearish factors...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Weaken, Spot Stainless Steel Transactions Mediocre, Awaiting Peak Season Validation SMM, August 19 – SS futures maintained a subdued consolidation trend. Dragged lower by the broad decline in nonferrous metals, SS prices pulled back in tandem. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,260 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures pulled back somewhat, the overall decline was relatively small. Stainless steel traders mostly held their offers steady, with only occasional small discounts. Overall transactions remained sluggish, showing no signs of recovery ahead of the “September-October peak season.” The Most-Traded SS Futures Contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2610 was at 14,260 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 410-610 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was steady; for cold-rolled 304/2B coil with mill edge, Wuxi average price was flat, Foshan average price was flat; the price of Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil fell by 100 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotation was flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan was flat. This week, stainless steel futures were continuously disturbed by macro sentiment, maintaining an overall weak pullback trend. During the week, news on Indonesia’s RKAB nickel ore approval repeatedly disrupted industry expectations. Coupled with the hawkish tone of the US Fed’s policy stance and the unresolved US-Iran geopolitical conflict, macro uncertainty stayed high. Multiple bearish factors dragged SS futures down continuously throughout the week, with bearish sentiment dominating the market and futures movement...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Consolidate on a Strong Note and Move Higher; Stainless Steel Spot Offers Hold Steady, Transaction Recovery Hard to Sustain According to SMM on August 18, SS futures maintained a strong consolidation pattern, extending the previous day's stronger tone, with prices moving higher. At the close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,275 yuan/mt. In the spot market, SS futures rebounded and strengthened yesterday afternoon; with guidance prices at mainstream steel mills holding steady, inquiry and transaction activity in the spot market clearly recovered. Today, momentum for further gains was insufficient, transactions weakened somewhat, and trader offers remained firm. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2610 traded at 14,235 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Wuxi 304/2B spot premiums were in the 435-635 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil held steady; for cold-rolled raw-edge 304/2B coil, the Wuxi average rose 25 yuan/mt and the Foshan average rose 25 yuan/mt; Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices fell 100 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotes were flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in Wuxi and Foshan were unchanged. This week, stainless steel futures were repeatedly disrupted by macro sentiment and overall remained on a weak pullback trend. During the week, news on Indonesian RKAB nickel mining approvals repeatedly disturbed industry expectations. Combined with the US Fed's hawkish policy stance and the unresolved US-Iran geopolitical conflict, macro uncertainty in the market stayed high. Multiple bearish factors combined to drag SS futures through a sustained pullback during the week, with overall bearish sentiment dominating the market...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Comment] SS Futures Consolidate on a Strong Note; Spot Stainless Steel Holds Steady with Off-Season Need-Based Deals SMM reported on August 12: SS futures showed a consolidation pattern on a strong note overall, though gains were rather limited. As of the close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,535 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures edged up, spot quotes did not show notable fluctuations, with a focus on stable quotes and active selling. Market inquiry activity picked up somewhat, but against the backdrop of the demand off-season, actual transactions remained need-based. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2610 was at 14,555 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi region were in the range of 315-765 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was stable; for cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil, average prices were flat in Wuxi and Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi were unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, quotes in Wuxi were flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were unchanged. This week, stainless steel futures were disrupted by both industry news and capital flows, experiencing wild swings with an intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts. News about additional nickel ore quotas under Indonesia’s RKAB repeatedly disturbed market expectations during the week, and with shifting capital flows in futures, SS futures rose first and then fell, briefly testing the 15,100 yuan/mt mark mid-week. However, as expectations of growth in nickel ore quotas heated up, bulls’ confidence evaporated, and futures pulled back to a weaker level…

[Guangdong: Zinc Prices Consolidate at Highs, Downstream Just-in-Time Procurement] In Guangdong, 0# zinc largely traded at 25,465-25,590 yuan/mt, with mainstream brands quoted at a discount of 100-70 yuan/mt against the 2609 contract and a discount of 50 yuan/mt against spot Shanghai, and the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread narrowing.

[8.11 Morning Meeting Minutes] The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that in July, due to imported factors, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% MoM but rose 0.5% YoY. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% MoM and 0.9% YoY, and CPI maintained a mild uptrend overall. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract moved sideways in the early session, and as of the early session close it was at 129,570 yuan/mt, up 0.33%. Nickel prices are currently in a highly uncertain environment characterized by wild swings in policy expectations, macro headwinds, and geopolitical risks. In the short term, the market is expected to swing wildly, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract trading within a range of 125,000-133,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Nonferrous Metals Strengthening Drives SS Futures to Stop Falling and Rebound, Spot Stainless Steel Inquiry Weak with Limited Upward Momentum According to SMM on August 7, SS futures generally stopped falling and rebounded. The nonferrous metals sector strengthened collectively today, driving SS prices to rise in tandem. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,640 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures gave a clear signal to stop falling and rebound, purchase demand from downstream was largely released in the mid-week when prices were high. Intraday market purchase inquiries remained weak, and the upward momentum of spot offers from traders was very limited. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2609 settled at 14,570 yuan/mt, up 105 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi region were in the 400-750 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled mill edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell by 75 yuan/mt, and in Foshan by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in the Wuxi region were flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil offers in Wuxi remained unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were flat. This week, stainless steel futures were disturbed by both industry news and capital flows, presenting wild swings overall, with a fierce tug-of-war between longs and shorts. During the week, news about Indonesia's RKAB nickel ore supplementary quota repeatedly disturbed market expectations, and combined with shifts in capital flows on futures, SS futures first rose then fell, once exploring upward during mid-week...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Center Moves Up, Spot Stainless Steel Market Sentiment Recovers According to SMM news on August 4, SS futures shot up and probed higher overall. Near the close of the night session, driven by fund operations, SHFE nickel and SS futures shot up quickly. Although SS pulled back briefly at the morning open, it had risen significantly overall. At the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,470 yuan/mt. Spot market, buoyed by the rally in SS futures, traders for stainless steel agents raised their quotes even as steel mill spot guidance prices held steady. Market activity picked up and inquiry and transaction performance was moderate. The most-traded SS futures contract: at 10:15 AM, SS2609 was at 14,870 yuan/mt, up 345 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 200–550 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, average prices: Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil stable; cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil (Wuxi up 50 yuan/mt, Foshan up 75 yuan/mt); Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil quote flat in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coil flat in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, macro sentiment turned bearish and dominated metals market trends, and stainless steel futures consolidated on a subdued note under overall pressure. The US Fed left interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week as expected, but its overall tone was hawkish. Commodity valuations came under broad pressure, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened across the board. Dragged down by the contagion of macro headwinds, SS futures...