Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices edged up slightly today. Although buying and selling sentiment rebounded, it remained weak overall. In the morning session, suppliers quoted from parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt, but actual transactions were sluggish. In the second session, prices were continuously lowered to around a discount of 20 yuan/mt before deals could be concluded, reflecting downstream users' limited acceptance of current copper prices and reluctance to chase higher prices. The inter-month Contango spread widened slightly but stayed in the range of around 100 yuan/mt, with suppliers showing relatively strong willingness to hold prices firm. Close attention should be paid to warrant outflows tomorrow. If there is a concentrated release, it will put pressure on spot premiums; if outflows are limited, then, supported by the spread structure, there is limited room for the discount to widen further. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between weak demand and uncertainty over warrant outflows, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, today copper prices edged up. Buying and selling sentiment rebounded but remained relatively weak overall. Suppliers quoted from parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt in early trading, but actual trading was sluggish. In the second session, quotes were continuously lowered to around a discount of 20 yuan/mt before deals could be concluded, reflecting limited acceptance of current copper prices by downstream buyers and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. The Contango spread between monthly contracts widened slightly but remained around 100 yuan/mt, and suppliers showed relatively strong willingness to hold prices firm. Close attention should be paid to the outflow of warrants tomorrow. If released in concentration, it will weigh on spot premiums; if the outflow is limited, then supported by the spread structure, there is limited room for further decline in the discount. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between weak demand and uncertain warrant outflows, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices are expected to rise intraday and remain at a relatively high level. Coupled with the futures contract rollover, trading activity is likely to be muted, reflecting that the current price level is significantly suppressing real demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at approximately 5,500 lots, indicating limited delivery participation. The concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert relatively limited additional pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery-related dynamics, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a sharp decline. But if copper prices remain at current highs and demand fails to improve effectively, spot premiums may come under downward pressure.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,424/mt, swung wildly in early trading and touched a low of $13,398/mt, then the price center fluctuated upward, and near the close it rose to a high of $13,612.5/mt before finally closing at $13,575/mt, up 0.94%. Trading volume reached 21,100 lots, and open interest stood at 265,000 lots, a decrease of 2,125 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reduced positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 103,280 yuan/mt, dipped to 103,010 yuan/mt right at the open, then fluctuated upward and touched a high of 103,850 yuan/mt near the close, finally settling at 103,540 yuan/mt, up 0.13%. Trading volume reached 30,100 lots, and open interest amounted to 152,400 lots, a decrease of 8 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reduced positions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the intraday copper price center is expected to shift lower, boosting downstream buyers' willingness to restock at lower prices, with some processing enterprises reporting order releases. The month spread structure has shifted from contango to backwardation. Suppliers' delivery profits from holding positions rose, with a strong reluctance to sell. Low-priced available cargoes on the market were tight. After the quick deals of discounted materials in early trading, quotes continued to be raised, and the premium for high-quality copper has widened to 60-100 yuan/mt. Supply side, SMM recorded that Shanghai's social inventory on June 11 was 155,700 mt, down 11,400 mt from June 8, mainly due to concentrated maintenance by domestic smelters and reduced imported arrivals, with spot circulation remaining tight. Overall, under the combined effect of delivery logic, backwardation structure support, and marginal consumption improvement, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to maintain a premium and sustain a firm trend.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] From a supply-demand perspective, consumption showed improvement compared to earlier. According to SMM, some suppliers reported an increase in downstream enterprise orders. Approaching delivery, the spread between the nearby SHFE copper contracts narrowed slightly. Buoyed by delivery-related support, suppliers’ willingness to hold prices firm rose somewhat, and Shanghai spot copper premiums edged up. In addition, import losses continued to widen, weakening the impetus for overseas cargo inflows, and supply-side increments were limited. Overall, supported by delivery dynamics, Shanghai spot copper quotes against the SHFE 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount next week, with the discount possibly narrowing slightly.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,948.5/mt, touched a high of $13,952/mt early in the session, then the copper price center moved downward throughout the session, touching a low of $13,785/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,785.5/mt, down 1.42%, with trading volume at 21,000 lots and open interest at 272,000 lots, a decrease of 370 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 106,360 yuan/mt, touched a high of 106,540 yuan/mt right at the open, then the copper price center fluctuated downward, touching a low of 105,730 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 105,860 yuan/mt, down 0.49%, with trading volume at 38,000 lots and open interest at 185,000 lots, a decrease of 3,142 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bulls reducing positions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Copper price center shifted upward during the day, and downstream enterprise consumption weakened. According to SMM, Shanghai spot copper remained around 106,500 yuan/mt. End-user cargo pick-up slowed down, and some copper semis processing enterprises in east China planned to shut down furnaces and cut production due to finished product inventories buildup, indicating that high prices further intensified the suppression of demand. In addition, entering the delivery month, although copper prices remained at a relatively high level, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts stayed at 160-100 yuan/mt, and suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses increased somewhat. They held prices firm and held back from selling, providing some support for spot discounts. As a result, both buying and selling sentiment pulled back during the day, and actual transactions were sluggish. Overall, supported by the widening price spread between futures contracts that encouraged suppliers to hold prices firm, combined with high copper prices suppressing demand, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow, with limited room for the discount to widen further.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the center of copper prices is expected to shift upward, and downstream enterprise consumption is expected to weaken. However, as the Contango price spread between futures contracts widens on a month-over-month basis, suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses is expected to increase, while they hold prices firm and hold back from selling, potentially tightening available low-priced cargo and providing some support for spot discounts. Influenced by rising copper prices, the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap is expected to widen, driving spot discounts on non-registered spot copper to expand further. Overall, under the influence of high copper prices and widening price spreads between futures contracts, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to remain at discount levels tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, a new monthly procurement cycle begins, and downstream restocking demand is released. Suppliers are expected to significantly raise their quotes accordingly. In terms of market performance, as copper prices remain at a relatively high level, after suppliers raise their quotes, downstream enterprises' willingness to chase higher prices remains limited. Some transactions are expected to occur after consecutive quote reductions, with coexisting willingness to hold prices firm and to cut prices for shipments. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between partial release of early-month procurement demand and high-price suppression, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow.