[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM data shows Shanghai social inventory at 85,600 mt, down 19,200 mt WoW from last Thursday, and Jiangsu social inventory at 26,400 mt, down 4,600 mt WoW, indicating rapid destocking. Social inventory has fallen by approximately 60,000 mt over the past two weeks, keeping available spot cargoes persistently tight. According to SMM, the arrival of domestic spot cargoes at some warehouses has remained low, limiting supply-side growth. The backwardation price spread between monthly contracts significantly widened to 200 yuan/mt, leading to higher costs for warehouse warrant transfers and somewhat boosting suppliers’ willingness to sell, but the sentiment to hold prices firm remains. The import window is wide open, but given logistics and customs clearance delays, near-term spot market replenishment will remain limited. In summary, driven by rapid destocking, a widening backwardation structure, and firm supplier pricing, SHFE spot copper is expected to maintain a premium against the 2607 contract tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to next week, the inter-month spread has fully shifted to a backwardation structure, with the backwardation widening to 20-90 yuan/mt. Suppliers are showing strong sentiment to hold back from selling, while social inventory continues to destock rapidly, leaving the pattern of tight available spot cargo unchanged. Overall, under the combined support of the backwardation structure, inventory destocking, and supplier reluctance to sell, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2607 contract are expected to remain at a premium next week, with the overall strength persisting. Attention should be paid to changes in market structure around delivery and the pace of downstream restocking.

Spot premiums in Shandong rose steadily this week. As of Thursday, the average spot copper price in Shandong was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt. This week, the market maintained a weak supply-demand pattern. Two smelters in the province conducted simultaneous maintenance, and the regional circulating supply was already tight. Coupled with the continuous destocking of copper cathode social inventory, the concentrated stockpiling and logistical disruptions caused by typhoon expectations in East China further tightened the spot supply in the market, providing strong support for spot offers. Meanwhile, end-users in the province were in the off-season, with weak purchasing demand. However, suppliers held back from selling and were reluctant to sell at lower prices. Offers in the market diver

This week, spot premiums in Shandong continued to rise. As of Thursday, the average spot copper price in Shandong was at a premium of 50 yuan/mt. The market maintained a supply-demand weakness pattern this week. Two smelters in the province underwent simultaneous maintenance, regional circulation of spot cargoes was already tightening, social inventory of copper cathode kept destocking, and spot circulation tightened, providing strong support to spot quotations. In the Shanghai market, typhoon expectations disrupted logistics and production, prompting downstream users in Jiangsu and Zhejiang to stockpile intensively ahead of time, driving up spot premiums in Shanghai. The increase in external purchase demand led to large shipments of Shandong cargoes to other provinces, further tightening local circulation. On the other hand, end-users in the province were in the off-season, with weak procurement demand. However, suppliers held back from selling and were unwilling to offer discounts to sell at low prices. Quotations in the market diverged significantly, and the price spread between high and low quotes widened, with overall trading mediocre. Looking ahead to next week, social inventory is expected to remain low, and the tightness in spot supply is unlikely to ease in the short term. Shandong premiums are expected to fluctuate in tandem with Shanghai futures, lacking drivers for a significant pullback.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, according to the Central Meteorological Observatory, this year's No. 9 typhoon "Bawei" has strengthened into a super typhoon. It is expected to approach the eastern sea areas of China around July 10, with a high probability of making landfall in east China. Affected by this, downstream copper semis processing plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are concerned that subsequent strong winds and rainstorms from the typhoon could disrupt logistics and production arrangements. They are therefore concentrating on advance stockpiling purchases, pushing up the overall center of Shanghai spot copper premiums. Observing supplier behavior, market transactions were active, and after low-priced cargoes were quickly absorbed, suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm further strengthened. Overall, under the combined effect of the concentrated release of typhoon stockpiling demand, suppliers holding prices firm, and continuous inventory destocking, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow, with the overall center continuing to edge up.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM records Shanghai social inventory at 122,400 mt, down 4,100 mt WoW, and Jiangsu social inventory at 36,000 mt, down 200 mt WoW. Consecutive destocking pushed the center of Shanghai spot copper premiums higher. The tight supply-side pattern remains unchanged, lending strong support to spot premiums. After low-priced supply was quickly absorbed during the day, available spot cargoes in the market turned tight, and suppliers were resolute in holding prices firm. Overall, driven by inventory destocking, suppliers' firm pricing, and downstream demand resilience, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2607 contract are expected to stay at a premium tomorrow, with the overall center possibly edging up slightly.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, inventory has been continuously destocking recently, with social inventory in Shanghai and Jiangsu regions showing a significant weekly decline. The supply tightness persists, providing strong support for spot premiums. Supplier side, after low-priced cargoes were quickly digested during the day, suppliers have been holding prices firmly. High-quality copper, due to scarce supply, maintained premiums at elevated levels of 100-130 yuan/mt. Some market participants reported difficulties in purchasing, and the overall tightness in available spot cargoes remains unchanged. Demand side, the early-month purchasing cycle continues, and downstream rigid demand is still being released. However, after copper prices rose, purchasing sentiment pulled back slightly, and willingness to chase higher prices has weakened. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between inventory destocking, suppliers holding prices firm, and high prices suppressing demand, it is expected that next week, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract will remain at a premium, and the overall strong trend will persist.

As of Thursday this week, spot copper prices in Shandong were reported at a discount of 90 yuan/mt. Specifically, the market was in a situation of both weak supply and demand. Maintenance at provincial smelters led to tight supply in the Shandong market, giving suppliers confidence to hold prices firm. However, actual market demand was not strong. In the demand off-season, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, and transactions during the week were mostly based on rigid demand.

Spot premiums in the Shandong region climbed all the way this week. As of this Thursday, spot copper prices in Shandong were reported at a discount of 90 yuan/mt. Specifically, the market is currently in a situation of supply-demand weakness. Maintenance at provincial smelters has led to tight supply in the Shandong market, giving suppliers confidence to hold prices firm. However, actual demand is not strong. During the off-season, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and transactions this week were mostly based on rigid demand. Looking ahead to next week, the tight supply in the Shandong region is expected to be difficult to alleviate in the short term, and spot premiums in Shandong will remain unlikely to pull back next week.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the early-month procurement cycle is continuing, downstream demand is still being released, and both buying and selling sentiment have been rebounding, keeping market trading activity relatively brisk. On the supplier side, after low-priced cargoes were rapidly absorbed, discounted cargoes became hard to find in the market, and suppliers developed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm. Buyers’ parity bids could not be executed. Due to scarce availability, premiums for high-quality copper held at the high level of 80-100 yuan/mt, providing support to overall premiums. On the inventory front, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai region recorded 126,500 mt, down 7,700 mt WoW from Monday; in the Jiangsu region, social inventory recorded 36,200 mt, down 5,000 mt WoW from Monday, with both regions showing a destocking trend. Overall, driven by the confluence of early-month demand release, suppliers holding prices firm, and inventory destocking, spot Shanghai copper against the SHFE 2607 contract is expected to remain at a premium tomorrow, maintaining an overall strong trend.