[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Expectations for an End to Geopolitical Conflict Cool, LME Zinc Stops Rising and Starts to Fall] Overnight, LME zinc stopped rising and started to fall, with support provided by the middle Bollinger Bands. As expectations for a swift end to the Middle East conflict cooled, base metals generally fell, while zinc was affected by a sharp increase in LME registered warrants......

[Price Review] At the beginning of the week, silver prices fluctuated upward amid Trump-related remarks and the possibility of easing conflict. However, on Thursday (April 2), after Trump delivered a speech claiming a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in the war against Iran, precious metal prices plunged sharply. The chaotic signals and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran negotiation situation themselves became a "bearish factor" for precious metal prices. In the short term, heated fund flows and weakening investment demand caused gold and silver to shift from "safe-haven inflation-resistant assets" into "liquidity tools," and the bearish sentiment in precious metals continued. As for the gold/silver ratio, as of April 1, the LBMA gold/silver ratio stood at 63, and is expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend in the short term. [Key Data] Bullish: The final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March in the US was 53.3, below both expectations and the previous reading Bearish: US ADP employment in March was 62,000, below both expectations and the previous reading US retail sales m/m in February rose 0.6, above both expectations and the previous reading The reported US ISM manufacturing PMI for March was 52.7, above the previous reading but below expectations Data and macro releases to watch next week include: April 3 (Friday): The US is set to release seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate for March. The market generally expects March payroll additions to rebound to 55,000. Bloomberg forecasts that, driven by a rebound in jobs after the end of the strike, nonfarm payrolls in March will increase by 80,000, while the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.4. April 9 (Wednesday): US February PCE Price Index April 10 (Thursday): US March CPI data On the Middle East conflict timeline, US President Trump postponed the airstrike on Iranian energy facilities to 20:00 ET on April 6. Trump said the US would "soon" withdraw from the conflict with Iran, but if the situation changes after the withdrawal, it may still re-engage. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, on April 1, Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, posted a message addressing US President Trump, saying that the Strait of Hormuz would definitely reopen, but not to the US. [Price Forecast] In the short term, the direction of the US-Iran conflict and cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts are the main factors affecting silver prices. The lasting impact of persistently high oil prices has kept precious metal prices under pressure. On industrial demand, after the Middle East conflict pushed up energy costs, expectations for global manufacturing activity may be reassessed, and silver has been hit by the dual blow of "safe-haven failure + collapsing demand narrative." On China fundamentals side, end-user enterprises showed weak willingness to stock up raw materials in April. On the one hand, declining PV end-user production schedules led to weaker expectations for new silver nitrate orders. On the other hand, other end-users showed strong caution and reluctance to buy on falling prices, aggressively bargaining down premiums for procurement. As the SHFE April delivery approaches, suppliers generally said that amid difficult spot silver ingot transactions, they may mainly monetize through delivery. Social inventory of silver ingots may see a slight accumulation, and premiums are still expected to have room to pull back further. Next week, the basic situation of silver prices remaining in the doldrums is expected to be difficult to improve, but close attention should be paid to disruptions to market sentiment from changes in geopolitical conflict and adjustments in fund flows.

SMM Nickel News, April 2: Macro and market news: (1) On the evening of April 1 local time, Trump delivered a speech, claiming on his own that the military campaign against Iran had achieved a “rapid, decisive, and overwhelming victory.” The US’ core strategic objectives in the military campaign against Iran were “close to completion.” Trump also said that stronger firepower strikes against Iran would be carried out in the coming weeks. (2) US ADP employment increased by 62,000 in March, above market expectations of 40,000 and broadly flat from 63,000 in the previous month, indicating steady growth in US private-sector employment in March. Spot market: On April 2, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 1,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,650 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; China’s mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands were at -600-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fluctuated lower and closed the morning session at 133,870 yuan/mt today, down 0.87%. In the short term, tighter Indonesian policies and cost support have built a solid bottom for nickel prices, but high inventory and weak end-use demand are capping upside room. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME Zinc Posted a Four-Day Winning Streak; Focus on Trump's Speech Today] Overnight, LME zinc posted a four-day winning streak, with the center of the daily candlestick moving higher. Trump released a TACO signal, expectations for an end to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East increased, the US dollar index fell, nonferrous metals saw bargain hunting, zinc inventory remained at low levels, and bears' exit provided support, driving zinc prices all the way up. Focus on......

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The 2026 SMM (3rd) Global Renewable Metal Industry Chain Summit & Battery Recycling Forum will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from May 11–12, 2026. The summit aims to bring together leading global enterprises, research institutions, industry experts, and policymakers in the fields of renewable metals and battery recycling.

We all know the relationship between Gold and US Dollars in the financial markets. When the USD rises, gold tends to fall and vice versa. It sounds simple to you, right? But understanding why this happens, and how to actually trade it like a pro trader, takes more than knowing that the pattern exists.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Middle East Geopolitical Risks Heighten Supply Concerns; Aluminum Prices to Trend Strongly Higher in the Short Term] Overall, although domestic social inventory continues to build up, the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the focus of global attention. If the geopolitical conflict continues, expectations for a tightening in global aluminum supply will remain strong, and aluminum prices will have strong upward momentum. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to hold up well.

Ghanaian President Mahama announced that Ghana plans to cease exporting unprocessed ore by 2030. The President stated that this move aims to support local processing enterprises, enabling them to lead the government's flagship industrial development and job creation initiatives. On February 13, 2026, President Mahama delivered a speech in Addis Ababa, emphasizing the importance of halting the export of unprocessed resources. He advocated for enhancing the capacity of local processing enterprises to increase production and strengthen the value chain. "I declare that by 2030, Ghana will no longer export any ore. We will no longer ship unprocessed ores such as manganese ore, bauxite, or iron ore out of Ghana. All these ores must be processed locally.

[Price Review] During the Chinese New Year holiday, overseas precious metals were affected by multiple factors including US macro policies and Middle East geopolitical conflicts. Silver prices showed a V-shaped reversal trend, falling first and then rising. As of the closing on February 23, spot silver in London closed at $88.17 per ounce, up approximately 13.8% compared to the pre-holiday closing price of $77.46 per ounce on February 13. A pre-holiday decline in US stocks, combined with weakened liquidity, dragged down overseas precious metal prices, which continued to fall in the early part of the Chinese New Year holiday week. Subsequently, the US released its Q4 GDP growth for last year, which fell short of expectations, leading precious metals to stop falling and rebound. Last Friday (February 20), the US Supreme Court ruled to repeal most of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration last year, and Trump immediately announced an additional 10% tariff on all global imports to the US over the next 150 days. This news reignited market concerns about trade conflicts and economic downturn. Additionally, stalled US-Iran negotiations, which could lead to a worsening situation in the Middle East, stimulated safe-haven demand. Precious metals surged significantly during the session, recovering previous losses, with silver leading the gains sharply. After the Chinese New Year holiday this week, uncertainties around tariff policies and geopolitical impacts continued to ferment. Domestic silver prices opened higher and extended their strong upward trend. After SHFE deliveries concluded on Thursday, spot cargo flowed out, and previously imported crude silver materials entered the market after processing, temporarily alleviating the tight supply of national standard silver ingots. Approaching the weekend, silver prices showed some weakness in continuing their rally. Regarding the gold/silver ratio, as silver led the precious metals gains during the holiday against a backdrop of low inventory levels, the gold/silver ratio dropped back slightly below 60 times. As of February 25, the LBMA gold/silver ratio pulled back to about 57 times. [Important Data] Bullish: US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending February 13 were -9.014 million barrels, lower than the previous value and expectations. The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February was 56.6, lower than the previous value and expectations. Bearish: US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 14 were 206,000, lower than the previous value and expectations. The US core PCE price index annual rate for December was 3%, higher than the previous value and expectations. US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending February 20 were 1,598.9, higher than the previous value and expectations. Data and macro news releases to focus on next week include: This Friday, the US will release the January core PCE price index, the inflation indicator most closely watched by the US Fed, which will directly impact monetary policy expectations. On March 6 (Friday) at 21:30, the US will release the February seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls data and unemployment rate, key indicators for assessing the US labour market conditions and the US Fed's policy direction. Next week, Fed Chairman Powell and several governors and voting members will deliver speeches, requiring attention to their latest statements on inflation, the job market, and the impact of tariff policies. U.S.-Iran situation: The third round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran was held on February 26, with both sides reaching consensus on the guiding principles for negotiations, but core disagreements remain. The U.S. military has deployed two aircraft carriers to the Middle East, and the period from March to July 2026 is a high-risk window, requiring vigilance against risks of negotiation breakdown or escalation of military friction. [Price Forecast] Silver prices have ended the wild swings in the short term. As London silver prices break through the 50-day daily average and stabilize above key support levels, bulls are expected to return to the market. Overall, overseas silver prices may move sideways next week, but risks of high fluctuations due to further escalation of U.S.-Iran negotiation outcomes and Trump's tariff policies still require caution. On the domestic spot price front, despite robust downstream demand, previously imported crude silver and large ingots have been processed and refined and are gradually entering the market. Some suppliers have slightly lowered their premium quotes, and further narrowing of domestic silver ingot premium is expected.