The copper scrap market this week operated under the impetus of a strong macro-driven rally in copper prices. Futures and spot prices rose in tandem, but the intensifying divergence in sentiment and behavior between upstream and downstream participants along the industry chain lent the market a complex character best described as "price-driven transactions amid an unchanged weak supply-demand landscape.

This week, ferrous metals exhibited a pattern of initial weakness followed by strength. At the beginning of the week, after the U.S.-Iran peace talks failed to reach an agreement, the U.S. military announced it would impose a blockade on all maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports, pushing international oil prices higher once again. Mid-week, disturbances from iron ore long-term contract negotiations intensified, with market rumors suggesting that restrictions on certain previously limited products had been partially lifted. Subsequently, news emerged of an unexpected shutdown at an Australian refinery, raising market concerns that a diesel supply deficit could trigger mine shutdowns, which in turn would lead to short-term supply tightening. Coupled with rising expectations of a second round of coke price increases, ferrous metals successfully rallied in the latter half of the week...

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,240.5/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,295/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to $13,182.5/mt, followed by wild swings, and finally closed at $13,242/mt, down 0.26%, with trading volume at 17,000 lots and open interest at 287,000 lots, a decrease of 2,451 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,350 yuan/mt, rose to 102,510 yuan/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to 101,700 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward to finally close at 102,290 yuan/mt, down 0.09%, with trading volume at 28,500 lots and open interest at 174,000 lots, an increase of 820 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions.

Iron ore futures recovered today, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 782 yuan/mt, up 3.10% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose 14-17 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders quoted actively, while steel mills purchased mainly based on rigid demand with few inquiries; overall spot cargo transactions were mediocre. On fundamentals, an SMM survey showed that the weekly inventory survey of 10 sample ports indicated total inventory reached 115.48 million mt, down 460,000 mt WoW, with Jimblebar fines destocking being particularly notable. Demand side, short-term hot metal production stayed high, and steel mills still maintained certain profits, providing strong support for iron ore demand. As restrictions on USD-denominated resources were lifted, market expectations of massive inventory release failed to materialize, easing resistance above. In addition, energy prices continued to climb, compounded by an unexpected shutdown at an Australian refinery, and the ongoing fermentation of sentiment over potential mine shutdowns due to diesel supply deficit leading to short-term supply tightens continued to form bullish factors for ore prices. Therefore, on a comprehensive basis, short-term ore prices are likely to hold up well.

Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, China's alkaline electrolyzer market remained at 43.77 GW, the PEM electrolyzer market remained at 2.7 GW, with no new capacity additions for the time being. No offline public delivery information was available this week. Project-related updates: Guangdong Liquid Sunshine Green Energy Co., Ltd.: The company officially signed a memorandum of cooperation with Johnson Matthey, a global leader in sustainable technology, and East China Engineering Science and Technology Co., Ltd. in Hefei. The three parties will jointly advance the implementation of the 150,000 mt biomass green methanol demonstration project invested and constructed by Liquid Sunshine Green Energy in Tiandong County, Guangxi. Jiang Xi, Executive President of Liquid Sunshine Green Energy, Zhong Ling, General Manager of Johnson Matthey China, and Meng Chenzhou, General Manager of East China Engineering, completed the signing on behalf of their respective parties. Zhongneng Kehang (Baotou) New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: The annual 300 million m³ green electricity-to-hydrogen production project received filing approval. The project is located in Baotou City — Guyang County — Jinshan Economic Development Zone, Guyang County, Baotou City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, with a total investment of 500 million yuan. Construction scale and content: 18 new hydrogen production lines, office buildings, workshops, shift dormitories, etc. Planned construction period: 2026/08–2028/07. Guoneng Xinjiang Electric Power Co., Ltd.: In collaboration with the New Energy Research Institute, the company successfully completed China's first 660 MW coal-fired boiler hydrogen co-firing pilot test, achieving a maximum hydrogen blending ratio of 45%, marking a pilot-scale breakthrough in coal-hydrogen co-combustion and pure hydrogen combustion. Heilongjiang Jiayirongyuan Green Chemical Co., Ltd.: Jidong County, Jixi City held the groundbreaking ceremony and technical exchange conference for the 300,000 mt green hydrogen-methanol-aviation fuel chemical co-production project. The project is invested and constructed by Heilongjiang Jiayirongyuan Green Chemical Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Jiaze New Energy Co., Ltd., with a planned total investment of approximately 3.557 billion yuan. The core of the project is to build an annual 300,000 mt green methanol production site and establish a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) sustainable development system. China Energy Engineering Overseas Investment Co., Ltd.: The commissioning ceremony for Central Asia's first AEM electrolysis hydrogen production research equipment was grandly held in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, marking a substantive breakthrough in joint R&D and application demonstration of key green hydrogen technologies between China and Kazakhstan. The equipment was jointly developed by the Overseas Investment Company and Shanghai Jiao Tong University, with the Overseas Investment Company also responsible for coordinating project investment and application scenario development. Leveraging advanced AEM electrolysis hydrogen production technology, the project demonstrates promising application prospects in improving hydrogen production efficiency and reducing system costs. Haiwang (Ningdong) New Materials Co., Ltd.: Its annual 5,000 mt carbazole project successfully completed trial production with feedstock. The project not only continuously produced high-grade products but also achieved batch delivery to multiple clients across different industries. It is understood that Haiwang (Ningdong) New Materials Co., Ltd. is a project jointly funded by Beijing Haiwang Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Ningxia Ningdong Technology Venture Capital Co., Ltd. The company is located in the New Materials Park of Ningxia Ningdong Energy and Chemical Industry Base, covering 65 mu of land, and construction of an annual 5,000 mt-class continuous carbazole production line has been completed. Zhongneng Jian Bochuang Green Fuel (Shenyang) Co., Ltd.: China's first 500,000 mt-class biomass green methanol-oil demonstration project — the Liaoning Shenyang 500,000 mt-class wind and solar power hydrogen production integrated with biomass green methanol-oil demonstration project — officially commenced construction. The demonstration project has a total investment of 32 billion yuan, fully leveraging the local unique resource advantages of "wind power + biomass," and is committed to building an annual 500,000 mt biomass green methanol-oil project, equipped with 2 GW centralized wind power, with an estimated annual biomass demand of approximately 3 million mt. It is understood that the project will be advanced in three phases. After Phase I completion, annual green methanol production of 100,000 mt will be achieved; after Phase II completion, annual green aviation fuel production of 300,000 mt will be achieved; after Phase III completion, annual green ammonia production of 100,000 mt will be achieved, at which point the overall capacity target of 500,000 mt-class green fuel will be fully met. Xindao Hydrogen Energy Technology (Baotou) Co., Ltd.: The company co-hosted an industry-academia-research cooperation signing ceremony with the School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering of Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of Jiangsu Xindao Energy Group, Xindao Hydrogen Energy Technology (Baotou) Co., Ltd. is actively engaged in the construction of a hydrogen-based green fuel off-grid green electricity direct-connection project, aiming to achieve annual targets of 1.485 billion kWh of green electricity, 291 million m³ of green hydrogen, and 200,000 mt of green methanol. The company is committed to promoting the commercialization and application of key technologies for "electricity-hydrogen-carbon" integrated high-efficiency balanced synergy, and has reached a cooperation agreement with a well-known South Korean shipping enterprise on long-term green methanol supply and sales. Policy Review 1. Notice of the Shaanxi Provincial People's Government on Issuing the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The document stated that hydrogen-related industrial clusters should be accelerated with a focus on Yulin, Xi'an, and other areas, building a full industry chain of hydrogen energy covering "production, storage, transportation, refueling, and utilization," reducing hydrogen production costs, and expanding hydrogen energy application scenarios. 2. Notice of the Guangzhou Municipal Administration and Comprehensive Law Enforcement Bureau on Issuing the Guidelines for Applying for Special Subsidies for Hydrogen Refueling Station Construction and Operation in Guangzhou. 3. The People's Government of the 8th Division Shihezi City of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps released the Administrative Measures for Hydrogen Energy Industry Development of the 8th Division Shihezi City (Trial) (Draft for Public Comments). The document stated that the safety management of hydrogen energy product production, storage, transportation, filling, and use within the administrative area of the Division and City shall be governed by these measures. Where other laws and administrative regulations provide otherwise, those provisions shall apply. Enterprise Updates Zibo Wangji Transportation Co., Ltd.: The first batch of 40 hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks were lined up and officially put into operation. These hydrogen heavy-duty trucks are all equipped with Guohong Hydrogen Energy's fuel cell systems and will primarily undertake trunk-line transportation of bulk materials such as ore powder, cement powder, and coal ash. Under typical conditions of a 100 km one-way trip with a full load of 40 mt, the vehicles can complete refueling in just 20 minutes using the supporting skid-mounted hydrogen refueling station. Sichuan Energy Investment Kuanzhai Green Supply Chain Co., Ltd.: The company released a competitive inquiry for the 2026–2027 comprehensive leasing service procurement project for five 49 mt hydrogen heavy-duty trucks. The tender announcement showed that the procurement covers comprehensive leasing services for five 49 mt hydrogen heavy-duty trucks (including tractor + semi-trailer + driving service + insurance + maintenance). Lease period: the contract term is one year in total, with the initial period of 3 months signed first, followed by contract renewals based on actual demand. This project does not accept consortium participation in the inquiry. Changsha Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology: The bureau released the transaction announcement for the hydrogen energy industry foundation and comprehensive application scenario research service project. The announcement showed that the Fifth Electronics Research Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology successfully won the bid, with a winning amount of 192,000 yuan. Guangdong Yuntao Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : The company officially reached a sales agreement with Guangzhou Yue'ancheng Trading Co., Ltd., under which Yuntao Hydrogen Energy will deliver 100 hydrogen heavy-duty trucks to Yue'ancheng Trading. It is understood that the 100 dump trucks in this successful order came from the key account development department of Yuntao Hydrogen Energy's dump truck business division, and will comprehensively support Yue'ancheng Trading's core transportation operations. To meet its high-frequency, high-volume transportation needs, these vehicles are equipped with fuel cell systems independently developed by Yuntao Hydrogen Energy, featuring advantages such as a driving range of up to 400 km, hydrogen refueling time of no more than 15 minutes, peak power of 355 kW, and payload capacity exceeding 14 mt. Shanghai Hydrogen Maple Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: The company officially issued a certification to CSSC 712 Research Institute, marking a key breakthrough in China's marine SOFC technology and entering a new stage of standardized and industrialized development. Suzhou Qingqiji Environmental Protection New Energy Co., Ltd.: Following its successful bid for the Sinopec Group Zhongtian Hechuang Ordos coal chemical project and securing the first batch order of 8 electrolyzers, the company won additional orders for the same project in subsequent months. Specifically, after the initial bid win, Qingqiji leveraged its strengths to secure an additional order of 8 alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production electrolyzers for the Zhongtian Hechuang project four months later, making it the supplier with the largest tied share (16 electrolyzers in total) in the project. It is understood that the Zhongtian Hechuang wind and solar power hydrogen production integration project is not only Sinopec Group's second large-scale renewable energy hydrogen production project globally, but also a landmark project in China's hydrogen energy sector. School of Materials Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University: The first AEM hydrogen production–magnesium-based solid-state hydrogen storage integrated system, independently developed by its Hydrogen Science Center, was officially commissioned in Kazakhstan. The system integrates two core technologies — efficient hydrogen production and safe hydrogen storage — achieving deep intelligent coupling of hydrogen production and storage. It employs non-precious metal, low-cost green electricity dynamic direct-connection hydrogen production and directly delivers hydrogen at low pressure to the magnesium-based solid-state hydrogen storage module, eliminating high-pressure compression and cryogenic liquefaction steps, pioneering a new pathway for large-scale green hydrogen applications. ITM Power Plc: UK electrolyzer producer ITM Power Plc (LON:ITM) secured government funding of £86.5 million ($115.8 million/€99.3 million). The funding includes national equity investment and grants, and will support the construction of a 1 GW production line for its next-generation Chronos electrolyzer stack. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) published patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested lifespan of 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing an Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity approaching that of platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint / Technical Specifications 1. The team led by Professor Yu Ying at Central China Normal University developed a three-dimensional hierarchical nanostructured catalytic electrode, a core part for seawater hydrogen production. 2. Dalian University of Technology designed an electron pump catalyst with an asymmetric photo-responsive structure, maintaining asymmetry in electron distribution. 3. A research team from the School of Electrical Engineering and the State Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power Equipment at Xi'an Jiaotong University successfully developed a Ru/Ti₃C₂Oₓ@NF bifunctional electrocatalyst for seawater electrolysis. 4. Johnson Matthey and Syensqo achieved efficient recovery and recycling of platinum group metals and ionomers from PEM fuel cells and electrolyzers, significantly reducing the carbon footprint. 5. Teams from Xi'an Jiaotong University and Peking University jointly developed a novel osmium-based catalyst, significantly improving AEM water electrolysis hydrogen production efficiency and economics, facilitating large-scale low-cost green hydrogen production.

DCE iron ore futures trended stronger today. The most-traded contract I2609 ultimately closed at 764 yuan/mt, up 0.99% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose 2-5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders quoted actively, while steel mills mostly remained on the sidelines purchasing on demand; overall spot transactions were moderate. Fundamentals, the SMM survey showed that the blast furnace utilization rate at 242 sample steel mills was approximately 90.21% this week, up 0.91% WoW. Daily average pig iron production reached 2.4441 million mt, up 5,100 mt WoW. Overall rigid demand for iron ore remained solid and was expected to edge up next week. News, market rumors suggested that restrictions on certain previously restricted categories had been partially lifted, and iron ore arriving subsequently could be freely picked up from ports, while the previously accumulated high inventory remained restricted. Overall iron ore supply was expected to edge up, but given the current high demand, the incremental supply was expected to be well absorbed, posing no bearish factors. Therefore, iron ore prices were likely to show strong downside support in the short term, and fluctuate upward.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,181.5/mt, fluctuated downward in early trading to touch a low of $13,139.5/mt, then the price center moved up steadily to reach a high of $13,305/mt near the end of the session, ultimately closing at $13,296/mt, up 1.31%, with trading volume at 25,300 lots and open interest at 289,300 lots, down 2,580 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at and touched a low of 101,580 yuan/mt, then the price center surged upward to probe 102,220 yuan/mt, before moving sideways to ultimately close at 102,150 yuan/mt, up 1.44%, with trading volume at 42,000 lots and open interest at 165,300 lots, down 2,780 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

[SMM Analysis]Return to Work Drove a Sharp Rise in the Operating Rate of Secondary Aluminum Producers in March, Expected to Decline in April

On April 14, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.135 million mt of steel in March 2026, up 1.298 million mt MoM, a 16.6% increase MoM; cumulative steel exports from January to March totaled 24.717 million mt, down 9.9% YoY. China imported 512,000 mt of steel in March 2026, up 143,000 mt MoM; cumulative steel imports from January to March totaled 1.339 million mt, down 14.1% YoY. China's Steel Exports Increased MoM in March Due to fewer days in February, combined with the Chinese New Year holiday and other factors, steel exports saw a seasonal rebound in March. Earlier SMM survey data on export order-taking also hinted at this trend — domestic sellers gradually resumed taking orders from mid-to-late January, with export order-taking maintaining a relatively high growth rate MoM. On the other hand, the global manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 51.2%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, running above 50% for two consecutive months, with Asia, Europe, and the Americas all rising MoM. China's Steel Imports Increased MoM in March Import side, China's cumulative steel imports from January to March totaled 1.339 million mt, down 14.1% YoY; net steel exports reached 23.378 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook According to the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in March 2026 was 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM, running above 50% for 11 consecutive months, driven by some economies in Europe, the Americas, and Asia, while Middle East geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions persisted. China's new export orders index for the manufacturing sector was 49.1% in February, up 4.1 percentage points MoM, showing a relatively notable recovery MoM. Data monitored by the World Steel Association showed that global crude steel production in February 2026 fell 2.2% YoY to 141.8 million mt. Among them, the pullback in China's production was mainly due to physical shutdowns during the Chinese New Year holiday and post-holiday high inventory forcing steel mills to actively cut hot metal production. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world also declined significantly by 8.75% MoM, with notable divergence in production schedule paces across regions — the most prominent being the Middle East, where output dropped markedly due to geopolitical conflicts and tariffs. The contraction in ex-China production, particularly in the Middle East, created opportunities for China's exports, especially semi-finished products. Chart 1 - Iran's Export Data by Product Category As of April 13, 2026, HRC export prices (FOB) from India, Turkey, and the CIS were $505/mt, $625/mt, and $495/mt respectively, while China's HRC export price (FOB) was $485/mt. Currently, China's HRC export price was +$20/mt, +$140/mt, and +$10/mt lower than those countries respectively. This shows that the escalation of the US-Iran conflict has pushed up ex-China steel costs far more than in China , further highlighting China's steel export price advantage. Chart 2 - Global Major Market HRC Prices Based on SMM's latest steel mill export scheduling data, HRC export planned volume this month was 851,000 mt, up 67,000 mt from last month's actual exports, an increase of 8.5% MoM. According to SMM steel export order-taking data, as production gradually resumed in and outside China, steel export order-taking in March increased 13.98% MoM from February. Due to the gap left by Iran's exports to Southeast Asia, the most notable increase was in semi-finished products, while the increase in finished products was relatively limited. Taking all factors into consideration, with order-taking and shipping gradually recovering, SMM expects steel exports in April to continue rebounding MoM. However, differences across product categories may emerge, which is expected to result in relatively limited incremental volume in the General Administration of Customs data released on the 8th, while the product-specific data released on the 20th may show relatively strong performance in semi-finished products. Chart 3 - SMM Steel Export Order Taking VolumeData Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. 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