SMM, July 6 news: In June, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes heated up, with the US dollar index gaining over 2% for the month. This was compounded by the electronics industry entering its traditional off-season and weak end-use demand, along with market skepticism over the sustainability of the AI sector's boom, which led to concentrated profit-taking from earlier high-level positions. Multiple factors jointly dragged tin prices lower, with SHFE tin falling 7.08% and LME tin dropping 6.68% in June monthly. Entering July, Warsh remarked at the Sintra Forum that "inflation expectations have declined and inflation risks have receded over the past four weeks." Coupled with US June non-farm payrolls data coming in below expectations, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes cooled somewhat. Meanwhile, tech stocks staged a rebound. Multiple tailwinds drove tin prices to drift higher in early July. As of around 16:51 on July 6, LME tin rose 1.26% to $52,970/mt, with its July monthly performance provisionally up 2.56%; SHFE tin gained 3.09% to 410,360 yuan/mt, with its July monthly performance provisionally up 5.4%. Spot side, in June, tin prices fell over 8%; in July, spot prices rose for several consecutive sessions, but a strong wait-and-see sentiment pervaded the market. For tin spot prices: SMM 1# tin spot prices posted four consecutive gains, quoted at 406,900–415,300 yuan/mt on July 6, with an average price of 411,100 yuan/mt, up 2.96% from the prior trading day. As tin prices rebounded, wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market intensified, with only some rigid demand purchases occurring and subdued overall trading activity. Looking at the monthly trend of tin spot prices, the average price of SMM 1# tin as of June 30 was 387,800 yuan/mt. Compared with the average price of 425,000 yuan/mt on May 29, it fell by 37,200 yuan/mt over the span of just over a month, a decline of 8.75%. Notably, when tin prices approached 380,000 yuan/mt, downstream enterprise restocking demand saw a phase of release. Fundamental side ► Production: June Refined Tin Production Edges Up MoM According to data compiled by SMM based on market communication, in June 2026, China's refined tin production edged up MoM, with overall output remaining relatively steady. The slight uptick in June refined tin production was driven by two main factors: On one hand, raw material supply showed marginal improvement, as previous incremental overseas tin ore imports materialized. Although the pace of production resumptions at Myanmar mines remained slow, ore has been flowing out continuously, alleviating domestic raw material shortages to some extent. On the other hand, increased arrivals of imported ore cargoes drove smelting TCs steadily higher, offering a phased easing of the longstanding raw material tightness and creating conditions for smelters to raise operating rates and boost output. However, future production expansion faces multiple constraints: from May to July every year, Myanmar enters its traditional rainy season, which limits both open-pit mining operations and ore transport. As a result, short-term imported ore volumes are expected to pull back MoM. Overall, the refined tin supply is marginally loose at present, but downstream industries have entered the traditional consumption off-season, weakening both supply and demand sides simultaneously. In the short term, a significant output surge appears unlikely. ►Imports: Tin ore imports rose both YoY and MoM in May; imports from Myanmar surged 384.5% YoY In May, China’s tin ore imports reached 16,800 mt (equivalent to about 6,408 mt in metal content), up 7.07% MoM and 25.61% YoY, an increase of 1,221 mt in metal content from April (which was equivalent to 5,187 mt). January-May cumulative imports totaled 85,900 mt, up 71.41% YoY. In May, China’s tin ingot imports were 1,838 mt, down 34.4% MoM and 11.46% YoY; January-April cumulative imports reached 11,196 mt, up 17.75% YoY. Import and export data for the tin industry chain from 2025 to May 2026 show that the global tin market’s supply-demand pattern is undergoing significant structural adjustments, characterized by accelerating recovery of overseas mine supply, easing of domestic raw material supply pressure, increased smelting output due to lower raw material costs, and constrained exports amid weak overseas demand. In terms of raw material supply, cumulative tin ore imports in January-May 2026 reached 85,998 mt, surging 71.41% YoY, while May alone registered 16,831 mt, up 7.07% MoM and soaring 25.61% YoY. This strong rebound was mainly driven by the recovery of Myanmar ore, with tin ore imports from Myanmar hitting 6,634 mt in May, skyrocketing 384.5% YoY, and the January-May cumulative figure spiking as high as 203.49% YoY. In contrast, although tin ore imports from countries other than Myanmar still maintained a cumulative increase of 34.72%, they declined 15.23% YoY in May alone, indicating a more moderate recovery in ore supply from non-Myanmar sources. ►Inventories: SMM weekly tin ingot social inventory across three regions continued destocking for four consecutive weeks. China’s tin ingot social inventory: According to SMM data, as of July 4, 2026, the total tin ingot social inventory across three regions in China stood at 7,299 mt, a sharp WoW decline of 1,374 mt, or 15.84%, from 8,673 mt the prior week (June 26). In terms of trend, since the stage high of 13,604 mt in early June, China’s tin ingot social inventory has been destocking for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative destocking of as much as 46.4% over the past month. The destocking slope exhibited a “slow-then-steep” characteristic. The current inventory level has fallen back to the year’s low, and the market supply-demand pattern has seen notable marginal improvement. Observing by region, inventory in Shanghai dropped to 3,750 mt, a weekly decrease of 996 mt, contributing 72.5% of the total weekly destocking volume, making it the dominant driver of this destocking round and reflecting faster trade turnover in east China and a substantive rebound in downstream purchase willingness. Guangdong inventory fell in tandem to 3,449 mt, down 378 mt WoW, accounting for 27.5% of total destocking, confirming that downstream rigid demand, led by solder enterprises in south China, maintained resilience and the pace of stockpiling picked up. The underlying logic is driven, on the one hand, by restocking after price pullbacks: the previously high tin price dampened downstream purchases, but this inhibitory effect gradually subsided as prices recently returned to rational levels, unleashing pent-up rigid orders in a concentrated manner and accelerating the digestion of visible inventory. LME Tin Inventory: LME tin inventory data stood at 8,575 mt on June 30, compared with 8,850 mt on May 29, indicating a decline in LME tin inventory during June. SMM Outlook On the macro front: In July, multiple macro events in and outside China will continue to disturb tin price movements. Overseas, focus on the minutes of the June US Fed FOMC meeting, US CPI and PCE inflation data, and the month-end US Fed meeting. Earlier, Waller indicated that inflation risks have eased, while the June non-farm payrolls data missed expectations, leading to a phased cooling of market bets on rate hikes. If subsequent inflation data rebound again and the US Fed strikes a hawkish tone, a stronger US dollar will weigh on tin prices; otherwise, continued easing expectations will provide valuation support for tin prices. Domestically, the central bank has increased liquidity injections, ultra-long special government bonds are being steadily implemented, and stimulus policies related to high-end manufacturing technological transformation and equipment upgrades are gradually taking effect, which will benefit medium and long-term consumption in tin downstream sectors such as semiconductors, AI computing power, and new energy. However, in the short term, the weak pattern of the traditional off-season in the electronics sector is unlikely to reverse quickly, and the pace at which domestic demand policy dividends are released will directly determine the strength of downstream spot restocking. Fundamentals: On the supply side, the overall tightness of tin ore supply persists, though marginal supply increase signals have grown; smelters are maintaining steady production with no large-scale production cuts for now. On the demand side, the market has entered the traditional consumption off-season, with downstream solder enterprises generally cautious in procurement, relying solely on rigid-demand purchases, while high prices are significantly suppressing purchase willingness. On the inventory side, tin inventories both in and outside China remain in a destocking trend, providing inventory-side support for tin prices. In summary, changes in macro expectations combined with the performance of the tech sector will influence the amplitude of tin price fluctuations. Tight ore supply and low overall inventories form a relatively strong fundamental floor, underpinning tin prices; but weak demand during the off-season will continue to drag on futures, limiting the upside room for tin prices. Looking ahead, close attention should be paid to the US Fed's policy direction and the prosperity of the semiconductor industry chain, while continuously observing the pace of destocking in and outside China, and waiting for a substantive recovery on the demand side, which can then bring new upward momentum to tin prices. Recommended reading:

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Louisiana State Employees' Retirement System (LASERS) has disclosed a new investment in Kaiser Aluminum, acquiring 7,100 shares valued at approximately US$856,000 during Q1 2026. The purchase was revealed in the pension fund's latest regulatory filing, adding Kaiser Aluminum to its institutional investment portfolio.

[SMM Magnesium Express]Recently, Shanghai FANUC collaborated with Fengyang Ailse Light Alloy Precision Forming Co., Ltd. to develop a customized integrated die-casting automation solution for magnesium alloy, successfully overcoming the bottleneck in large-scale production. This solution covers the entire process, including high-temperature part removal and workpiece handling, and is suitable for producing various magnesium alloy components such as electric vehicle frames and new energy vehicle battery housings. The production line has been operating continuously and stably for over half a year, significantly improving production efficiency and product consistency. With ongoing advancements in die-casting automation, the large-scale application of magnesium alloy in the new energy vehicle and electric two-wheeler sectors is expected to accelerate further.

[Flat products]HRC up 1 USD, deals at 489-497 USD/tonne HRC prices rose 1 USD/tonne today and other flat product export prices also rose 1 USD/tonne day on day, with HRC deals at 489-497 USD/tonne. Inquiries were fair, but actual deals were mediocre, as overseas buyers' target prices sat slightly below Chinese sellers' offers. [Billet]Export billet FOB up 1 USD to 459-462 USD/tonne Export billet prices edged up 1 USD/tonne today, with FOB offers at 459-462 USD/tonne. According to market feedback, overseas competition remains fierce while domestic mills' offers are near cost, leaving little willingness to concede further and making deals difficult. [Rebar]Rebar export offers firm, Singapore CFR at 520-525 USD According to traders, China's rebar export offers to Singapore recently clustered at 520-525 USD/tonne CFR. Some mills cut output, leaving export resources relatively limited and offers firm, but overseas buyers showed weak willingness to accept high prices, so overall deals were mediocre. [Vietnam]Domestic Mill Price Cuts Squeeze Imports as ASEAN HRC Weakens On July 6, ASEAN HRC import offers edged down to 535 USD/tonne CFR amid thin trading. Over the prior week Vietnam's two leading mills each slashed HRC ex-works prices by 33-34 USD/tonne: Hoa Phat's target price to key clients fell to 535-537 USD/tonne CIF, while Formosa Ha Tinh's September-shipment offer dropped to 546-556 USD/tonne. Formosa's official July prices, released last Friday, were cut roughly 40 USD/tonne month-on-month, quoted at 538 USD/tonne CIF for volumes above 20000 tonnes and up to 548 USD/tonne CIF for small lots, with August-September shipment. With domestic material now more competitive, Vietnamese buyers clearly favored local supply and showed little appetite for imports, forcing import offers lower: Indian HRC deals slipped to 535-540 USD/tonne CFR and Indonesian HRC to 525-535 USD/tonne CFR, both with scarce transactions. The Asian slab market softened in tandem, with local Vietnamese slab down to 490 USD/tonne FOB and Indonesian August-shipment export slab at 490-495 USD/tonne FOB. Separately, the Ha Tinh provincial government formally terminated the Thach Khe iron ore project, whose reserves total about 544 million tonnes, leaving Vietnam unable to lift domestic iron ore self-sufficiency via large-scale mine development in the near term. [Turkey]Weak Demand and Overbooked EU Quota Keep Turkish HRC Sliding On July 6, Turkish HRC prices extended their decline, weighed by limited domestic demand and a lack of alternative export outlets, with September-delivery offers down to 605-630 USD/tonne EXW. The EU quota reset brought no relief: the new quarterly HRC quota was instantly overbooked by large volumes that had arrived earlier, with third-quarter over-declaration reaching 205% and about 330000 tonnes queuing for customs clearance against a quota of roughly 160000 tonnes, further capping prices as export channels clogged. On longs, as of July 3, Turkish rebar export prices fell to 575 USD/tonne FOB on persistently weak domestic and export demand, declining mill inventories and an absence of firm orders, while HRC on an FOB basis eased to 585 USD/tonne. The domestic market remained depressed, with traders reluctant to stockpile amid tight cash flow and high borrowing costs, and no meaningful demand recovery is expected this summer. [India]Inventory Build Drags Longs as Rebar Slips While Safeguard Duty Props HRC On July 6, Indian blast-furnace (BF) route rebar prices fell about 17 USD/tonne week-on-week to around 512 USD/tonne, dragged down by a seasonal construction slowdown, rainfall, project delays and dealer inventory accumulation. Demand stayed limited to needs-based restocking, mill inventories ran at about 10-15 days, and the market expects major mills to cut long-product offers further. By contrast, HRC held firm at around 609 USD/tonne, supported by the import safeguard duty and falling import volumes, clearly outperforming longs and highlighting the divergence between flat and construction steel.

[SMM Magnesium Express]Recently, according to Da Jiang News, the Linchuan Branch of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, in collaboration with financial peers in the jurisdiction, successfully issued the first syndicated loan for the magnesium-based new materials industrial park in Fuzhou City, with a credit amount of 550 million yuan. This loan will be used to support the park's infrastructure construction and corporate capacity expansion, accelerate the aggregation of upstream and downstream supporting industrial projects, and provide financial backing for the Linchuan magnesium-based industry's transition from "point breakthrough" to "chain rise.".

During this week, port departures of steel from China's main ports reached 3.0789 million mt, up 9% WoW.

SMM CRC Production Schedule: July Steel Mill CRC Production Schedule Down 2%, Daily Average Down 6% According to the latest SMM tracking, the planned cold-rolled commercial material volume of 31 mainstream cold-rolled sheet/coil steel mills this month totaled 4.1115 million mt, down 99,700 mt or 2.4% MoM from the actual cold-rolled commercial material production last month. On a daily average basis, with one more day in July than in June, the daily average scheduled cold-rolled commercial material production in July was 132,600 mt, down 5.5% MoM from the actual daily average production last month. SMM HRC Production Schedule: July Steel Mills' HRC Scheduled Production Up 1% Daily Average Down 2% According to the latest SMM tracking, 39 mainstream HRC mills have a total planned commercial HRC output of 13.4457 million mt this month, up 132,800 mt, or 1.0%, MoM. On a daily average basis, July has one more day than June. The daily average scheduled commercial HRC production in July is 433,700 mt, down 2.3% from the actual daily average production in June. Recently, steel mill profits have shrunk sharply, and pressure to take orders has increased significantly amid the off-season. Some mills have added new maintenance and production-cut plans. Combined, these factors led to the MoM decline in the daily average HRC scheduled production in July. In summary, the total planned commercial HRC output in July was basically flat MoM, but due to more days in July than June, the daily average scheduled production edged down MoM. Demand side, Q2 remained in the domestic off-season, with downstream purchases and market transactions performing sluggishly. Inventory pressure is expected to keep rising, and the supply-demand imbalance is gradually accumulating. The HRC supply-demand pattern provides limited support for prices. Overall, the HRC supply-demand imbalance is gradually building up, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for costs to rise further in the short term. Considering that macro expectations and changes in external conflicts provide limited stimulus to steel prices, HRC prices in July are expected to consolidate near the bottom, with the average price likely to edge down slightly from June.

[SMM Daily HRC Trading] On July 6, the total daily trading volume of hot rolled coils from sample enterprises in SMM’s four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) was 12,920 mt, up 1,370 mt or 12.3% DoD, -22.59% calendar YoY, and +22.70% lunar YoY.

[Magnesium Prices Hit Bottom and Stabilize; Supply-Demand Under Pressure, Consolidating] Today, the quotation for 99.90% magnesium ingot in the main production area was 15,750-15,800 yuan/mt, up from the previous working day.

【SMM阳极铜快讯】SMM预计2026年7月中国阳极铜企业整体开工率将环比下降0.20个百分点至45.75%，其中矿产阳极铜企业预计开工率环比下降2.97个百分点至67.34%；废产阳极铜企业预计开工率环比上升0.92个百分点至36.92%。（仅指非自用阳极铜部分）