[Price review] Silver prices stabilized and rebounded this week (6.15-6.18) after a continuous early decline. Easing US-Iran tensions saw both domestic and overseas futures hold up well, with the price center edging up slightly WoW. Market attention was focused on the Fed’s FOMC meeting early Thursday morning. The Fed kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, the fourth straight hold, but the latest dot plot showed a generally more hawkish shift among officials—the majority expected no rate cuts this year, and nearly half saw further rate hikes as possible. The statement noted inflation remains above target, and rising energy costs and geopolitical risks add to inflation uncertainty. Fed Chairman Warsh reiterated at the press conference that the Fed is firmly committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% long-term goal and will not pivot to accommodative policy in the short term. Following the meeting, silver dipped briefly but then recovered on technical buying as expectations of further rate hikes did not materially increase. On the geopolitical front, a US-Iran memorandum of understanding was formally signed and took effect, kicking off a 60-day negotiation period. In industrial demand, premiums for mainstream quotations of national standard silver ingots against TD in the Shanghai market were basically flat WoW; mainstream quotations stayed at parity to slight premiums, with most trades concluded at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg against TD on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Downstream consumption turned sluggish as silver prices rebounded slightly. On the inventory side, as the holiday approached, some suppliers cleared their stock, while the willingness to sell was weak given locked long-term contracts and reserved export quotas. Additionally, some upstream smelters started routine maintenance. Social inventories of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen saw overall destocking. As for the gold/silver ratio, the LBMA gold/silver ratio was around 67 as of June 17. [Key data] Bearish: The June FOMC meeting kept rates at 3.50-3.75% unchanged, but the dot plot showed the majority of members expected no rate cuts this year and some supported further hikes, indicating an overall hawkish Fed stance. Fed Chairman Warsh said inflation remains clearly above the 2% target, monetary policy will stay restrictive, and clear rate-cut signals are unlikely in the near term. The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with unemployment around 4.3%, dampening market expectations for rapid easing. Bullish: A US-Iran memorandum of understanding was formally signed and took effect, initiating a 60-day negotiation period. Peru's energy crisis persists, with the nationwide state of emergency extended to year-end. Already 12 large mines have adopted staggered production, and May silver output is expected to decline 5-8%. The global supply-demand gap remains, offering some floor support to silver prices. [Near-term Focus] June 20: US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary; June 26: US Q1 GDP final; June 27: US May core PCE price index; Key focus: changes in US inflation data, developments in the Middle East situation, and the progress of strait reopening. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to hold up well next week. Ongoing attention is needed on the uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran situation. Trump has threatened Iran with further strikes if it fails to comply with the terms of the agreement. After the Fed’s June policy meeting concluded, market uncertainty about the policy path temporarily subsided. Although the Fed’s overall tone remains hawkish, expectations for additional rate hikes have not increased. Silver’s previous bearish factors have been largely released. However, US Treasury yields will continue to exert some pressure on silver, and prices may move sideways. On the domestic fundamentals side, downstream enterprises maintain rigid demand-based purchases while pushing for lower prices. Selling pressure on low-priced spot cargo has eased, and social inventory of spot silver ingots has been destocking overall. Yet sentiment has not fully recovered. Mainstream spot transaction discounts/premiums are expected to remain within the range of parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg against the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD contract. A shift toward higher premiums in the short term appears unlikely.

[Price Review] This week (6.8-6.11), silver extended its accelerated decline, with both international and domestic futures markets plunging sharply in tandem. The price center moved notably lower WoW, hitting a new low in nearly two months. The non-farm payrolls data triggered the first heavy sell-off: on June 5, the US May non-farm payrolls report showed an increase of 172,000 jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 85,000; data for the prior two months were revised up by a combined 93,000, and the unemployment rate held at a historic low of 4.3%. Following the release, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes surged sharply, and silver immediately suffered a heavy blow. On June 10, the US May CPI data came out, up 4.2% YoY and 0.5% MoM. The inflation data further cemented market expectations that the US Fed would maintain high interest rates. Paired with renewed deterioration in the US-Iran conflict, with US forces striking Iran for two consecutive days, the US Fed was expected to have difficulty releasing dovish signals in the near term. Industrial demand side, the premium of standard silver ingots against TD mainstream quotations in the Shanghai market continued to rise WoW; mainstream quotations were generally at parity or with slight premiums, and most transactions settled in the range from parity against SGE TD to a premium of 10 yuan/kg. As silver prices plunged during the week, downstream inquiry activity was relatively active. Inventory side, downstream consumption recovered somewhat WoW, and some smelters showed lower willingness to sell due to falling prices, so social inventory of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen destocked overall. Gold/silver ratio side, as of June 10, the LBMA gold/silver ratio widened from 63.8 a week ago to 67.2, highlighting silver's greater weakness relative to gold under sustained macro pressure. [Important Data] Bearish US May non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000, far exceeding expectations, with labor market resilience surprising to the upside. US May CPI up 4.2% YoY, a three-year high, as inflationary pressures re-emerged. After taking office as Fed Chairman, Warsh set a clear hawkish tone, and subsequent official remarks continued to send tightening signals. India's silver import control policy remained in place, weighing on physical consumption demand. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis persisted, with a national state of emergency until year-end; 12 large mines have already implemented staggered production, and May silver output is expected to decline by 5%–8%. The global supply-demand gap remains, providing some floor support for silver prices. [What to Watch] June 16-17: US Fed June FOMC meeting and Warsh post-meeting press conference (key event) June 18: US May retail sales data June 20: University of Michigan preliminary June consumer sentiment index Key focus: Fed official speeches, latest developments in US-Iran negotiations. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to maintain a pattern of hovering at lows and seeking a bottom next week, remaining under an overall high macro pressure environment. The Fed's FOMC meeting from June 16 to 17 will be the core focus next week, with the market closely watching Wash's speech content and the Fed's latest guidance on the interest rate path. If the Fed releases a clear signal of rate hikes, silver prices may dip further; if the meeting outcome leans dovish, silver prices could see a rebound from oversold conditions. On the domestic fundamentals side, downstream purchases have slightly recovered, pressure from spot selling at lows in the market has eased somewhat, and the social inventory of spot silver ingots is destocking overall. Since most enterprises remain cautious amid heavy fear of price declines, mainstream traded spot premiums are expected to remain in a range of parity to a 10 yuan/kg premium over SGE TD, and the market is unlikely to quickly shift to higher premiums in the near term.

On the production side, China's 1# silver output in February 2025 increased 0.81% MoM and 8.17% YoY.

In December 2025, domestic silver production increased by approximately 4.4% MoM. Full-year (January-December) SMM 1# silver production reached around 18,600 mt, up about 5.42% YoY.

In November, domestic silver ingot inventories continued the destocking trend, driven by export profits, constraints in raw material supply, and regional maintenance, among other factors. Currently, the silver market is in a phase where macro tailwinds and fundamental support resonate. Against the backdrop of strengthening expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, low spot inventories, and steady industrial demand, the strong momentum in silver prices is expected to continue. Market participants should remain vigilant in monitoring changes in US Fed monetary policy, inventory changes, and the actual performance of end-use demand such as PV.

SMM's monthly production data for base metals is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals for industry chain professionals and investors, and providing a clearer grasp of the future direction of the metals market.

The SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index for this week is $92.5/dmt, with a 2.44% WoW increase. The SMM Imported Lead Concentrate average spot TC for this week is $-90/dmt, down by 12.5% WoW.

On August 18, Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZL) announced that its Board has approved the establishment of India’s first zinc tailings reprocessing plant at Rampura Agucha, Rajasthan. The facility will have a designed capacity of 10 Mtpa and an investment of ₹3,823 crore, targeting completion within 28 months from the start date. The plant will recover valuable metals such as zinc and silver from tailings, marking a key step in the company’s strategy to double production capacity, enhance resource efficiency, and promote the circular economy. Earlier in June 2025, HZL approved the first phase of expansion at Debari, involving a new 250 ktpa integrated smelter and related mine and concentrator expansions. This project, scheduled for completion in 36 months, is expected to lift total zinc and lead capacity from the current ~1.13 Mtpa to more than 2 Mtpa, while raising silver output to up to 1,500 tonnes per year.

On August 6th, Pan American Silver announced record Q2 2025 net earnings of $189.6 million ($0.52 per share), driven by strong mine operating earnings of $273.3 million. Revenue reached $811.9 million, with silver and gold production totaling 5.1 million ounces and 178.7 thousand ounces, respectively. Free cash flow hit an all-time high of $233.0 million, boosting the company’s cash balance to $1.1 billion. Pan American plans to invest $500 million toward its acquisition of MAG Silver, with the Juanicipio mine expected to immediately contribute to free cash flow and boost silver output by ~35% annually. The company declared a 20% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.12 per share and repurchased 459,058 shares during the quarter. Pan American reaffirmed its 2025 production and cost guidance. Total available liquidity stood at $1.86 billion as of June 30, 2025.

SMM's monthly base metal production data is scheduled for release at each month-end, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals from the ground up, helping industry chain professionals and investors see through the illusions of the capital market and grasp the future trends of the nonferrous metal market more clearly.