SMM News on July 1: Metals market: As of midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.44%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.86%. SHFE lead fell 1.46%. SHFE zinc rose 1.01%. SHFE tin rose 0.93%. SHFE nickel fell 0.61%. Additionally, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.64%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 5.65%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.6%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 3.08%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 1.81%, HRC fell 0.52%. Rebar fell 0.79%, stainless steel fell 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2%, the most-traded coke contract fell 2.33%. Overseas base metals market, as of 11:36, LME metals all fell. LME copper fell 0.91%, LME aluminum fell 1.18%, LME lead fell 0.69%. LME zinc fell 0.69%, LME tin fell 1.53%. LME nickel fell 0.37%. Precious metals, as of 11:36, COMEX gold fell 1.09%, COMEX silver fell 2.74%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.37%; the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 0.5%. Additionally, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.91%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.03%. As of midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures fell 9.81% to 2,560 points. As of 11:36 on July 1, midday futures quotes for some contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper reported at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper reported at parity, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper reported at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,220 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,135 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt... Macro front China: [The PBOC net withdrew 1,162.5 billion yuan from the open market today.] The PBOC conducted 100 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today at an unchanged interest rate of 1.4%. Today, 662.5 billion yuan in 7-day and 600 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos matured. [Shenzhen's June housing transactions hit a near 6-year high.] According to data released by Shenzhen Centaline Research Center today, Shenzhen's new and secondhand home transactions totaled 8,878 units in June, down 11.9% MoM but up 14.2% YoY. The combined new and secondhand home transaction volume hit a new high for the same period since 2021. Among them, first-hand residential (presale + existing) online signings totaled 3,785 units, down 16.7% MoM but up 15.6% YoY; second-hand residential transfers reached 5,093 units, down 8% MoM but up 13.1% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar aspect: As of 11:36, the US dollar index rose 0.16% to 101.33. Fed’s Hammack said: The labour market is near full employment, with good growth prospects. Inflation remains too high, and the Fed may need to consider rate hikes. Jason Pride, Chief of Investment Strategy at private wealth management and investment firm Glenmede, and Michael Reynolds, Vice President of Investment Strategy, said investors should expect the US June unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3%, with non-farm payrolls increasing by about 87,000. While this represents a pullback from May’s 172,000, in the current labour market environment of “low hiring, low layoffs,” it still counts as a solid outcome. Although employment fundamentals remain largely intact, the Fed’s focus has shifted to inflation, meaning that the timing of any future easing measures will depend more on inflation pressures than on job growth itself. According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, and the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 33.7%. For September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 33.1%, the chance of a cumulative 25bp hike is 50.0%, and the chance of a cumulative 50bp hike is 16.9%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data highlights: Today will see the release of US June Challenger Job Cuts, US June ADP Employment Change, US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final), US June ISM Manufacturing PMI, US May Construction Spending MoM, UK June Nationwide House Price Index MoM, UK June Manufacturing PMI (final), Switzerland May Real Retail Sales YoY, France June Manufacturing PMI (final), Germany June Manufacturing PMI (final), Eurozone June Manufacturing PMI (final), Eurozone June CPI YoY (preliminary), and Eurozone June CPI MoM (preliminary), among others. In addition, Fed Chairman Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem spoke at the “Policy Panel” session of the ECB’s Global Central Bank Forum. The Davos Technology Summit is held from July 1 to 4, with the theme “Physical AI and Robotics.” It is worth noting that on July 1, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (China) was closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with both northbound and southbound trading suspended. The Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada was closed for Canada Day. Crude oil: As of 11:36, oil prices on both benchmarks edged up, with WTI up 0.42% and Brent up 0.41%. Preliminary vessel tracking data from Kpler and Vortexa showed the UAE lifted exports of crude oil and condensate to a record high in June, shortly after leaving OPEC. Rauball, a senior oil analyst at Kpler, said UAE exports of crude and condensate averaged about 3.7 million barrels per day this month, a record high and well above the pre-Middle East conflict level of 3.1 million to 3.3 million barrels per day. The UAE's previous export peak was 3.44 million barrels per day in April 2020, when Saudi Arabia and Russia triggered a brief oil price war. Emma Li, a senior oil analyst at Vortexa, said crude loadings from Abu Dhabi hit 4 million barrels per day between June 1 and 29, surpassing the pre-conflict level of 3.4 million barrels per day. Exports also rose to a record 3.7 million barrels per day, compared with 3.3 million barrels per day in the first two months of this year. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Today's SMM 10:00 AM fixing for the SGE Ag (T+D) was 13,861 yuan/kg, with a premium range quoted at parity against the T+D contract to +20 yuan/kg, averaging +10 yuan/kg, still unchanged from the previous trading session. On the macro front, the US PCE price index recorded an annual rate of 4.1% overnight, while the core PCE price index recorded 3.4%, matching market expectations. This, combined with remarks by the Fed's Williams, eased concerns over Fed rate hikes, and precious metals rebounded slightly overall. In the spot market, downstream consumption was moderate after silver prices trended lower throughout the week. Morning offers in the Shanghai region were mainly concentrated at T+D parity to +20 yuan/kg. Trader quotes leaned towards the high end, while downstream enterprises negotiated procurement based on price, with transactions closing more at the mid-to-low end. Approaching month-end, suppliers had limited willingness to sell, and some suppliers who had cleared inventory suspended offering. Low-priced supply in other regions was largely cleared. Quotes in the Shenzhen area mostly centered around a premium of 10 yuan/kg against the T+D contract. Today, the market quoted a discount of around 35 yuan/kg against the most-traded SHFE 2608 contract. Recently, overall premiums in the silver spot market have been relatively stable, with trading volume recovering slightly as absolute prices stayed at low levels.

SMM, June 18: Metals markets: As of midday close, base metals on the domestic market were nearly all down. SHFE copper fell 0.66%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.13%. SHFE lead fell 0.27%. SHFE zinc rose 0.14%. SHFE tin fell 2.46%. SHFE nickel fell 0.38%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures edged lower, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.28%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 4.88%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.98%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.24%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 1.26%, rebar fell 1.04%, HRC fell 0.89%, and stainless steel fell 0.66%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 6.26%, and the most-traded coke futures contract fell 4.21%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:45, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 1.06%, LME aluminum and LME lead fell nearly 1%. LME zinc fell 1.12%, LME tin fell 2.7%. LME nickel fell 1.08%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold fell 0.94%, and COMEX silver fell 2.17%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 1.85%. In addition, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 2.63%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.88%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping freight futures (European route) rose 1.13% to 3,742.5 points. As of June 18, 11:45, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Zinc: The mainstream brand 0# zinc traded around 24,680-24,790 yuan/mt in the Ningbo market. Ningbo regular brands were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt against the 2607 contract, and at a premium of 30 yuan/mt against Shanghai spot cargoes. The mainstream in Ningbo was quoted against the 2607 contract... Macro front Domestic side: [Five Departments: Launch of 2026 NEV Promotion Campaign in Rural Areas] The General Offices (Comprehensive Departments) of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce and three other departments are launching the 2026 NEV promotion campaign in rural areas, deepening the auto trade-in program in villages. Within the NEV rural promotion campaign, a trade-in special section will be set up to publicize and promote subsidy policies, and provide "one-stop" services such as old vehicle inspection, evaluation and recycling, and assistance with subsidy applications, to further increase policy awareness and coverage and facilitate rural consumers' participation and access to subsidies. Rural consumers who trade in old cars for NEVs can apply for auto trade-in subsidies according to policy requirements, without any limit on the number of subsidy qualifications. [NDRC: to Strengthen Coordinated Planning of Computing Power Network, New-Type Power Grid, and New-Generation Communication Network During 15th Five-Year Plan Period] Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office and Spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at a press conference that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, greater emphasis will be placed on supply-demand matching and coordinated planning and construction of the computing power network, new-type power grid, and new-generation communication network. On the "hard investment" front, more effective computing-electricity synergy models will be explored to strengthen computing with electricity and promote electricity with computing; computing-network integration innovation will be enhanced, and direct connection lines between national hubs will be appropriately expanded to further reduce network transmission latency. On the "soft development" front, the monitoring and market-based scheduling of computing resources will be strengthened, and the construction of a nationwide integrated computing power network that is interconnected, universally accessible and easy to use, green, and secure will be accelerated. (from Wallstreetcn APP) [Shanghai Clearing House and CFETS to Launch Optimized Foreign Currency Repo Service from June 22] The Interbank Market Clearing House Co., Ltd. (Shanghai Clearing House) and the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) issued a notice stating that to further optimize foreign currency repo trading and clearing services and meet market participants' needs for collateral management and diversified settlement methods, Shanghai Clearing House and CFETS will launch an optimized foreign currency repo service on June 22, 2026. During the term of a foreign currency pledged repo transaction, both parties may initiate substitution of pledged bonds for trades not yet due for settlement through the Shanghai Clearing House integrated business system or the CFETS foreign exchange trading system, subject to counterparty confirmation. Prior to the settlement date, both parties may initiate cash settlement through the Shanghai Clearing House integrated business system, and Shanghai Clearing House will complete the buyout repo maturity settlement based on the cash settlement instruction. The specific launch arrangements by CFETS will be announced separately. (from Wallstreetcn APP) [PBOC Reverse Repos Net Inject 59.5 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 248 billion yuan seven-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 188.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.15% to 100.24. US Fed officials hinted on Wednesday that they may need to raise interest rates soon rather than cut them, a sharp shift in thinking amid rapidly climbing inflation. Evercore ISI analyst Krishna Guha stated that the pullback in energy prices may offer some relief in the coming months. However, he cautioned that the interest rate outlook has already decoupled from oil prices, which indicates deeper uncertainty over whether underlying inflation will cool enough to spare the US Fed from having to hike rates eventually. Beyond energy, Guha noted, two pressures remain: the ongoing pass-through from tariffs and cost spillovers from the investment boom in AI infrastructure. Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and former Fed economist, said conditions that would normally prompt the Fed to respond to supply-driven inflation—namely an overheated labour market or unanchored inflation expectations—have yet to be seen. But she acknowledged that the case for action is building. “I can understand the view that the Fed should be ready to step in and hike if things worsen,” she said, adding that the Fed could move more swiftly than during the pandemic-era inflation surge because “they are already having that debate now.” According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the US Fed holding rates steady through July stands at 64.0% (versus 91.0% before the decision), with a 35.1% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike (versus 8.9%) and a 1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike (versus 0%). For the year-end, the probability of unchanged rates is 14.2% (versus 38.2%), while the odds of cumulative hikes stand at 25bp (36.4%, versus 43.0%), 50bp (33.8%, versus 16.2%), 75bp (13.5%, versus 2.4%), and 100bp (2.1%, versus 0.1%). Citi expects the Fed to deliver 25bp rate cuts in October 2026, December 2026, and January 2027, shifting from its previous forecast of cuts in September, October, and December this year. Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman and former Dallas Fed President Kaplan said the Fed may need to raise rates as early as September if inflation remains persistently elevated. “If the inflation data do not cool between now and September, it would be wise for the Fed to act in September or in the autumn. That would be the more prudent course,” Kaplan said. Markets turned hawkish after Fed Chairman Walsh signalled that the central bank remains focused on fighting inflation. Traders dumped short-term Treasuries, pushing some yields higher. Walsh’s remarks were reinforced by the personal projections of Fed members, half of whom pencilled in rate hikes by the end of 2026. Kaplan stated that if inflation remains stubborn, it indicates that monetary policy is still too loose. He also pointed out, “Fed policy actions are rarely one-offs; rate hikes often come in series of two or three. So I think if you’re going to act in September, you need to be prepared. There may be one or two more.” (Jin10 Data APP) Data Releases: Today will see the release of US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, the US June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, the US May Conference Board leading index month-on-month change, Switzerland’s May trade balance, the Swiss National Bank policy rate as of June 18, the UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to April, the UK May unemployment rate, the UK May claimant count change, the UK Bank of England rate decision as of June 18, and the eurozone April seasonally adjusted current account, among other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: China’s refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window. The Fed’s FOMC will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections, Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference, the Swiss National Bank will announce its rate decision, and the Bank of England will release its rate decision and meeting minutes. It is worth noting that on June 18, China’s SGE, SHFE, ZCE, and DCE will have no night session trading due to the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival. On June 19, the NYSE will be closed for Juneteenth. CME Group’s precious metals, energy, forex, equity indexes, and US Treasury futures contracts trading will close early at 01:00 Beijing time on June 20 for the Juneteenth holiday, while ICE’s Brent crude oil futures contract trading will close early at 01:30 Beijing time on June 20 for the Juneteenth holiday. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 1.82% and Brent down 1.48%. Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran at the Palace of Versailles in France on Wednesday, declaring an end to the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A US official stated that the agreement had officially taken effect, but it remained unclear whether Iran had immediately taken steps to fully reopen the strait. "Trump's signing of the MOU after the G7 meeting is another important step in the process of reopening the Strait of Hormuz," said Rajeev De Mello, Global Macro Portfolio Manager at Gama Asset Management, "This will further compress energy risk premiums, ease inflation concerns, and provide support for bond and equity markets after the Fed's initial reaction." (Wall Street CN) An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated: Iran must be able to sell its oil smoothly, with no obstacles in transportation and insurance, and must receive the proceeds from oil sales. Jinshi Data APP) According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell by 8.26 million barrels last week, compared with estimates of a 5.2 million barrel decline by Bloomberg users and a 3.6918 million barrel draw by analysts, following a 7.227 million barrel drop the prior week. Inventories at the Cushing hub in Oklahoma have declined for eight consecutive weeks to around 20 million barrels, a level that most traders consider the operational minimum. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve also fell this week to about 340 million barrels, the lowest since 1983. (Wallstreetcn) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Today, SMM’s 10:00 am fixing price for SGE Ag (T+D) was 16,637 yuan/kg. The premium range was quoted at parity to +20 yuan/kg against T+D, with an average premium of 10 yuan/kg. On the macro front, the US Fed announced it would keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% unchanged, marking the fourth consecutive hold. The latest dot plot showed that the overall stance of Fed officials tilted more hawkish than before, with most members expecting no rate cuts this year and nearly half seeing the possibility of further rate hikes. Silver futures dipped briefly after the meeting, then rebounded technically as expectations for further hikes did not intensify. On the geopolitical front in the Middle East, the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was officially signed and took effect, launching a 60-day negotiation period. In the spot market, overall consumption was weak today, and with the holiday approaching, some suppliers had cleared their inventories. Coupled with long-term contract lock-ins and export allocations, their willingness to sell was low. Offered prices held steady from yesterday, while price spreads remained wide. Morning offers in Shanghai were mainly at parity to +20 yuan/kg vs T+D, with actual transactions tilting towards the lower end. Low-priced cargoes in other regions were largely cleared, and smelters mostly quoted around parity to +10 yuan/kg. Premiums against the most-traded SHFE 2608 contract were quoted at -60 to -40 yuan/kg today. Overall, spot market trading remained sluggish.

SMM Jun 12 News: Metal markets: Overnight, domestic base metals broadly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.13%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.62%, SHFE lead fell 0.74%, SHFE tin rose 1.91%. SHFE zinc fell 0.19%. SHFE nickel rose 0.25%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 1.18%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.04%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore closed flat at 766.5 yuan/mt, hot-rolled coil (HRC) flat at 3,365 yuan/mt, stainless steel rose 1.91%, and rebar fell 0.33%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 0.33%, while the most-traded coke futures contract rose 0.35%. Overnight overseas market: LME base metals nearly all rose. LME copper rose 0.94%. LME aluminum rose 0.87%, LME lead fell 0.25%. LME zinc rose 1.64%. LME tin rose 2.01%. LME nickel rose 0.37%. Overnight precious metals : Overnight COMEX gold rose 2.43%, COMEX silver rose 4.25%. Overnight the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.75%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.41%. As of 7:15 on Jun 12, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [SAMR Approves Release of a Batch of Important National Standards] Recently, the State Administration for Market Regulation (Standardization Administration of China) approved the release of 389 important national standards, covering high-tech, traditional industries, environmental protection, agricultural production, and people's livelihoods. After publication, these standards will play a vital role in promoting high-quality industrial development, improving people's quality of life, and safeguarding life and property. In the high-tech sector, 33 national standards were released for artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, blockchain, etc., clarifying technical and safety specifications. Six national standards were released for industrial internet and industrial digital twins, promoting smart manufacturing upgrades. Fifteen national standards were released for spacecraft grounding requirements, manned spacecraft markings and usage requirements, and general requirements for parachute systems of civil light and small rotary-wing drones, laying a solid foundation for the large-scale application of China's aerospace equipment. (SAMR) [SHFE: Adjusting Price Limit and Margin Requirements for Gold and Silver Futures Contracts] SHFE announced that for the gold AU2609 contract, the price limit is 17%, the hedging position margin rate is 18%, and the speculative position margin rate is 19%; for the silver AG2706 contract, the price limit is 17%, the hedging position margin rate is 18%, and the speculative position margin rate is 19%. [GFEX: Matters Regarding Polysilicon Futures PS2706 Contract and Lithium Carbonate Futures LC2706 Contract] GFEX announced that for the polysilicon futures PS2706 contract, the trading fee rate is 0.025% of the transaction value, the intraday closing fee rate is 0.025% of the transaction value; the minimum order size per trade is 5 lots for opening and 1 lot for closing; non-futures company members or clients are limited to a maximum daily opening volume of 200 lots. For the lithium carbonate futures LC2706 contract, the trading fee rate is 0.032% of the transaction value, the intraday closing fee rate is 0.032% of the transaction value; the minimum order size per trade is 5 lots for opening and 1 lot for closing; non-futures company members or clients are limited to a maximum daily opening volume of 400 lots. [DCE: Trading Schedule for 2026 Dragon Boat Festival Holiday] DCE announced that the market will be closed from Jun 19 (Friday) to Jun 21 (Sunday) and resume trading on Jun 22 (Monday). There will be no night session on the evening of Jun 18 (Thursday). On Jun 22 (Monday), the call auction for all contracts will take place from 08:55 to 09:00. Night session trading will resume on the evening of Jun 22 (Monday). US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.35% to 99.69. Market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes were pushed back from December this year to January next year, with markets no longer fully pricing in a rate hike this year. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through June is 98.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.5%. For the meeting through July, the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 7.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.4%. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the producer price index (PPI) rose 6.5% YoY in May, the largest increase since November 2022 and above the expected 6.4%; it rose 1.1% MoM, also exceeding the market forecast of 0.7%. The data echoed the consumer price index (CPI) released earlier, which also recorded the fastest pace in three years. The combination of these two inflation figures is expected to further cement market expectations that the US Fed will begin raising rates in 2026. With momentum rebuilding in the labor market, taming inflation has become the Fed's top priority for now. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Last week, US initial jobless claims increased slightly, indicating that the labor market retained resilience in early June. The US Department of Labor said on Thursday that in the week ending June 6, initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 229,000, above market expectations. Claims typically rise at the start of summer, as some states allow non-teaching staff to file for unemployment benefits during long school holidays. However, the government's model for stripping out seasonal fluctuations may not fully capture these changes. Last week, the government reported that the economy added jobs for the third straight month in May. The unemployment rate held at 4.3% for the third consecutive month. Some of the strength in job growth may be due to fewer layoffs. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: [ECB Becomes First Major Central Bank to Raise Rates Since Inflation Reemerged] The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years, making it the first major central bank in the developed world to respond to inflation triggered by the Iran war. The bank lifted its main rate from 2% to 2.25%, a move widely expected but also highlighting the challenges faced by major economies due to rising energy prices resulting from the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors widely expect the ECB to raise rates at least once more this year. The decision also made the ECB the first major central bank to tighten monetary policy in response to rising energy prices, which have pushed eurozone inflation above 3%. The US Fed, under Chair Warsh, is expected to hold rates steady next week as Warsh faces a dilemma between Trump's demand for low rates and mounting inflationary pressure; the Bank of England is also expected to keep rates unchanged next week. (Zhitong Finance) Data: Today will see the release of Germany's final May CPI MoM, the UK's April three-month GDP MoM, UK April manufacturing output MoM, UK April seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK April industrial output MoM, France's final May CPI MoM, US June one-year ahead inflation expectations preliminary, and US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary, among others. Also of note: the Huawei Developer Conference will be held from Jun 12-14; Elon Musk's commercial space company SpaceX is scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on Jun 12, 2026. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI crude down 4.01% and Brent crude down 4.26%. Oil prices tumbled after Trump signaled that the US and Iran are about to reach a peace deal. OPEC's monthly report showed that OPEC lowered its forecast for 2026 global oil demand growth to 970,000 bpd (previously expected at 1.17 million bpd). It raised its 2027 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.73 million bpd (previously 1.54 million bpd). OPEC+ (including former member UAE) crude oil production averaged 33.13 million bpd in May 2026, down 190,000 bpd from April, mainly due to lower Iranian output. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Additionally, CME Group announced that, pending regulatory review, it will offer 24/7 (around the clock) trading for new, smaller crude oil and gold contracts. The new crude oil contract will be one-tenth the size of CME's existing micro WTI crude oil futures contract and will launch on August 30. Around-the-clock trading for the company's existing 1-ounce gold futures contract will begin on July 26. Derek Sammann, Global Head of Commodity Markets at CME Group, said: "In the face of geopolitical uncertainty, offering appropriately sized, regulated products available 24/7 enables traders to manage risk whenever news breaks." (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM June 10 news: Metal markets: The domestic base metals market mostly fell overnight. SHFE copper fell 0.34%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.67%, and SHFE lead fell 0.4%. SHFE zinc rose 0.14%. SHFE tin fell 1.1%. SHFE nickel fell 1.34%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.68%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract closed flat at 22,995 yuan/mt. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance, with iron ore up 0.26%, HRC flat at 3,360 yuan/mt, stainless steel down 0.69%, and rebar up 0.19%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 0.58%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 0.38%. On the overseas metals market overnight, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.23%. LME aluminum fell 2.08%, and LME lead fell 0.38%. LME zinc rose 0.33%. LME tin rose 0.16%. LME nickel fell 2.2%. Overnight precious metals market : Overnight COMEX gold fell 1.8%, and COMEX silver fell 4.56%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract fell 1.51%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract fell 4.06%. Bob Haberkorn, Senior Market Strategist at RJO Futures, stated: "Traders are slightly uneasy about the current market situation... A broad risk-off mode has taken hold across all markets. I believe this risk-off sentiment is what drove gold prices down." Haberkorn added: "Until the US Fed provides clearer guidance, gold and silver prices remain under downward pressure." (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts at Saxo Bank stated that gold futures prices closed below their 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023, following last Friday's non-farm payrolls report and a broad deterioration in risk sentiment that also weighed on stock markets. The combination of a resilient US economy and rising inflation expectations is creating a challenging environment for gold, overshadowing long-term supportive factors such as central bank purchases, fiscal concerns, and reserve diversification. (Jinshi Data APP) As of 7:19 on June 10, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Guangdong: Over 3 million charging facilities to be built province-wide by the end of 2027, meeting the charging demand of more than 8 million NEVs] The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission and other departments recently issued the "Guangdong Province EV Charging Facility High-Quality Development Action Plan." The plan proposes to build a high-quality charging facility system where super-charging, fast charging, and slow charging complement each other by continuously innovating application scenarios, improving charging networks, enhancing charging efficiency, optimizing service quality, and innovating the industrial ecosystem. This aims to promote the balanced development of charging facilities in eastern, western, and northern Guangdong alongside the Pearl River Delta region, and facilitate the wider purchase and use of EVs. By the end of 2027, the province will have cumulatively built over 3 million charging facilities to meet the charging demand of more than 8 million NEVs; the province will achieve "super-charging coverage in every county," with the number of super-charging stations no fewer than the number of gas stations. (Jinshi Data APP) [CPCA: Retail sales in China's domestic narrow PV market reached 1.51 million units in May 2026] According to the latest retail sales statistics from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), retail sales in China's domestic narrow passenger vehicle (PV) market reached 1.51 million units in May 2026, down 22.1% YoY, but up 9.2% MoM. Cumulative sales from January to May totaled 7.099 million units, down 19.5% YoY. US Dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.07% to 99.95. Data: The weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending May 23 was 29,000, compared to the previous figure of 35,750. Jay Woods, Chief Global Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, stated that the US May headline CPI YoY rate is expected to jump from 3.8% to 4.2%, which would be the highest level since March 2023. But the real concern isn't the headline number; it's the potentially entrenched "sticky" items like housing, insurance, and services. These categories could keep inflation persistently above the US Fed's comfort zone, as they may remain elevated for longer. Woods noted that high inflation driven by gasoline is typically less worrying, whereas sustained price increases in housing and services could be a trend that takes time to reverse. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 98.2%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 1.8%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged through July is 85.8%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point hike at 12.6% and a cumulative 25 basis point cut at 1.6%. (Jinshi Data APP) China Securities pointed out that in the short term, the probability of a US Fed interest rate hike remains low, and market concerns about Fed tightening are mainly at the expectations level, based on assumptions of sticky domestic US inflation and a persistently hot job market. CME FedWatch data indicates that the most likely timing for a Fed rate hike expected by markets outside China begins in late October 2026. The current tightening of global liquidity and market adjustments represent a front-running reaction to expectations of a Q4 Fed rate hike. Regarding the domestic bond market, increased expectations for Fed tightening are not bearish. China's bond market is relatively independent and has a small correlation with US Treasuries. Furthermore, given ample domestic liquidity, the anticipated tightening of overseas liquidity and adjustments in equity markets could potentially drive capital flows into the bond market, supporting the current level of long-term bonds. Subsequently, China's 10-year government bond yield is expected to continue oscillating around the 1.70% level; a break below 1.70% still requires the emergence of new incremental information from domestic sources. Data: Today will see the release of China's May CPI YoY, the US May unadjusted CPI YoY, the US May seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, the US May seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, the US May unadjusted core CPI YoY, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision as of June 10, and China's May M2 money supply YoY (date TBD), among other data points. Also, attention should be paid to: the Bank of Canada's announcement of its interest rate decision; and the monetary policy press conference held by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with US crude oil down 2.85% and Brent crude oil down 2.03%. Oil prices were volatile on Tuesday. Trump stated earlier in the day that negotiations with Iran were "in the final stages of a very, very good deal," pushing Brent crude lower. However, Trump subsequently posted on social media stating that Iran had shot down a US Apache helicopter patrolling the Strait of Hormuz and declared "the US must respond," causing oil prices to jump immediately. Iranian officials further warned afterward that "foreign military forces near Iran face risks," briefly lifting oil prices further. Despite this, crude oil closed lower. (Wall Street CN) Data: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 5 fell by 9.119 million barrels, compared to an expected draw of 3.421 million barrels, with the prior figure showing a draw of 6.757 million barrels. The US API gasoline inventory for the week ending June 5 fell by 1.191 million barrels, compared to an expected draw of 614,000 barrels, with the prior figure showing a build of 3.454 million barrels. (Jinshi Data APP) The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated on Tuesday local time that due to crude oil production losses exceeding 11 million barrels per day in the Middle East caused by the Iran war, major consumer nations are drawing down inventories to bridge supply shortfalls at an unprecedented rate. Consequently, oil inventories among OECD members are heading toward their lowest levels since at least 2003. The EIA stated that under its current assumptions, where maritime shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels before the beginning of 2027, total oil inventories held by OECD member nations will fall to just under 2.3 billion barrels by December. (Jinshi Data APP)

SMM June 4 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper, SHFE aluminum, SHFE lead, and SHFE zinc all dropped over 1%. SHFE tin fell 0.86%. SHFE nickel fell 2.55%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.69%, and the most-traded alumina futures fell 2.02%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures extended the decline from the previous three trading days, falling another 3.17%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.52%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 1.95%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dropped 1.47%, rebar fell 0.38%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.32%, and stainless steel fell 2.19%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 4.7%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 2.25%. Overseas market base metals: as of 11:45, LME metals generally fell. LME copper fell 0.09%, LME aluminum fell 0.12%, and LME lead fell 0.37%. LME zinc, LME tin, and LME nickel all fell within 0.3%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.58%, and COMEX silver fell 0.05%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.2%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 1.93%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.81%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 3.54%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.44% to 3,758 points. As of 11:45 on June 4, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Aluminum: On June 4, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was quoted at 24,130, down 190, at a discount of 190 to the current-month contract, narrowing by 60 (unit: yuan/mt). Futures stopped rising and turned lower today, while South China spot prices bucked the trend and stabilized with an upward bias... Macro front Domestic: [MIIT: From January to April, China's above-scale electronic information manufacturing value-added output was up 14% YoY] From January to April, the value-added output of above-scale electronic information manufacturing was up 14% YoY, 8.4 and 1.4 percentage points higher than the growth rates of overall industry and high-tech manufacturing over the same period, respectively. In April, the value-added output of above-scale electronic information manufacturing was up 15.6% YoY. Among major products, mobile phone production reached 452 million units, up 0.3% YoY, of which smartphone production was 390 million units, up 6.5% YoY; micro-computer equipment production was 95.426 million units, down 10% YoY; integrated circuit production was 176.97 billion units, up 24.7% YoY. (MIIT Weibo) [State Grid Corporation of China's Peak Power Load to Exceed 1.3 Billion kW This Summer, Up ~6% YoY] According to State Grid Corporation of China, this summer's maximum power load in its operating area was projected to exceed 1.3 billion kW, up approximately 6% YoY. To fully ensure safe power grid operation and reliable power supply, State Grid Corporation of China accelerated supply assurance capacity building, continued to improve market-based power trading, and promoted efficient utilization of clean energy. Currently, 168 key projects for peak summer power supply were under accelerated construction. (CCTV) The PBOC announced that, based on the demand of primary dealers in open market operations, the volume of the 7-day reverse repo operation on June 4 was zero. 101.3 billion yuan in reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.04% to 99.5. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 98.4%, with a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25 bps interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 90.2%, with an 8.4% probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate hike and a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25 bps interest rate cut. US Fed's Logan stated that US Fed officials may need to raise interest rates later this year to bring inflation down to the 2% target. She noted that the US labour market was "broadly in balance," investment in artificial intelligence was booming, and financial conditions remained "accommodative." However, she added that the current inflation trajectory did not appear to be pulling back toward the US Fed's 2% target. "These conditions suggest that current monetary policy is not restraining the economy," "I am increasingly concerned that achieving a full restoration of price stability, while appropriately balancing both sides of the US Fed's dual mandate, may require raising interest rates later this year." The US Fed Beige Book noted that overall, prices rose at a moderate to strong pace, with most districts reporting inflation rates higher than in the previous report. Districts cited energy costs related to the Middle East conflict as a primary driver of inflationary pressures, with impacts extending to shipping, packaging, groceries, and fertilizers. Non-labour costs continued to rise faster than selling prices, raising broader concerns about margin compression. The ability to pass on higher costs varied across industries, particularly among consumer-facing companies. Some regions noted that enterprises across multiple areas had adopted strategies to cope with inflation, including supply chain optimization, product adjustments, reducing supply, and temporarily absorbing higher costs to maintain client demand. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Data to be released today included US May Challenger enterprise layoffs, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30, US May Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Eurozone April retail sales MoM, Switzerland May CPI MoM, and Switzerland May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. In addition, at 2:00 the US Fed released the Beige Book on economic conditions, and 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivered a speech. At 15:00, the Ministry of Commerce held the first regular press conference of June, and China's refined oil products entered a new round of price adjustment window. ECB President Lagarde delivered a speech, 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin participated in a fireside chat, and Bank of England Governor Bailey spoke at the Investment Association conference. Crude oil: As of 11:45, oil prices in both markets declined, with WTI down 0.94% and Brent down 1.03%. According to CCTV News, on local time June 3, US President Trump stated that negotiations with Iran were progressing very well and a new round of talks could be held this weekend. Once an agreement is signed, the Strait of Hormuz will immediately reopen. (Jin10 Data APP) Expectations of an end to Middle East conflicts put oil prices under pressure. Investinglive analyst Eamonn Sheridan stated that reports indicated Israel and Lebanon had reached a ceasefire framework agreement under US guidance, with both sides set to resume full talks during the week of June 22, contingent on Hezbollah's complete withdrawal from southern Lebanon. The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market will digest this headline and largely treat it as a priced-in factor. (Jin10 Data APP) The US-Iran conflict is pushing the global oil market toward a tipping point. US crude oil and petroleum product inventory has fallen to its lowest level in over two decades, while US crude oil exports hit a record high in May, rapidly depleting domestic reserves. Analysts warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could surge significantly within weeks. According to data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, for the week ending May 29, total US crude oil and petroleum product inventory decreased by 10.6 million barrels from the previous week to 1.57 billion barrels, the lowest level since 2004 . Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 8 million barrels in a single week to 433.7 million barrels, marking the sixth consecutive weekly decline, far exceeding analysts' prior expectations of 3.3 million barrels. (Wall Street Journal) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 2 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper gained 1.21%, SHFE aluminum rose 1.01%, and SHFE lead edged down. SHFE zinc rose 0.53%. SHFE tin gained 3.63%. SHFE nickel rose 0.61%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 1.15%, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.49%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures dropped 3.96%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.06%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 1.54%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore gained 0.51%, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil edged down, and stainless steel rose 1.42%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.41%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 0.66%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper, LME lead, and LME nickel edged down, all with declines within 0.1%. LME aluminum rose 0.96%, LME zinc gained 0.24%. LME tin rose 1.3%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold rose 0.48%, and COMEX silver gained 0.5%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 1.17%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures dropped 0.3%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.71%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.71%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 2.04%, closing at 3,776.5 points. As of 11:41 on June 2, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot prices and fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 0 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 105,960 yuan/mt, up 1,115 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,870 yuan/mt, up 1,130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front China: [PBOC net drained 248.8 billion yuan via open market operations today] The PBOC conducted 200 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos, with the operation rate at 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. A total of 249 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.02%, at 99.18. US Treasury prices fell as signs of a stalemate in peace negotiations between the US and Iran raised concerns that high energy costs would exacerbate inflation and prompt the US Fed to raise interest rates. Monday's sell-off pushed yields higher across the $31 trillion US Treasury market, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising about 6 basis points to nearly 4.5%, while crude oil prices surged more than 7%. The two-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to US Fed policy expectations, also rose about 6 basis points to 4.07%. Earlier, Iran had suspended dialogue with the US through intermediaries in protest of Israeli actions. Traders raised expectations that the US Fed's next move would be a rate hike. The swap market showed that traders had fully priced in one rate hike by March 2027 and saw a 50% chance of a hike as early as October. In addition, according to the CME "FedWatch" tool: the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 98.4%, with a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 90.2%, with an 8.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data) On the data front: The US April JOLTs job openings, Switzerland's April trade balance, UK April central bank mortgage approvals, and the Eurozone May CPI year-on-year preliminary reading and Eurozone May CPI month-on-month preliminary reading were due to be released today. In addition, 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari was scheduled to deliver a speech, 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack was scheduled to speak on monetary policy, and Bank of England Governor Bailey was set to attend a House of Lords hearing. On crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets moved sideways, with WTI down 0.5% and Brent down 0.38%. CNN reported on June 1, citing a regional source familiar with the US-Iran negotiations, that talks had gotten back on track. Iranian media had previously reported that negotiations between Iran and the US were suspended due to Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon. However, US President Trump subsequently stated that he had spoken with the Israeli side and that negotiations with Iran were "moving fast." (Xinhua News Agency) Oil prices stabilized after posting their largest gains in nearly a month, while uncertainty over the prospects of US-Iran peace negotiations heightened the risk of prolonged disruptions to energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. According to US media, Trump said that a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz was expected to be reached within the coming week. However, he also noted that the US side still needed to "finalise a few details" before a final deal was reached. Last month, oil prices once pulled back, buoyed by market optimism that the two sides were likely to reach a deal. The day before, reports emerged that Iran had halted negotiations with the US, threatened to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and planned to fully blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC, said: "If there are more signs that the parties are no longer actively negotiating, then the 'safety cushion' that the market had previously relied on in its pricing — namely expectations of the best outcome — will also disappear." She added: "During this conflict, we have already witnessed too many twists and turns, and nothing is set in stone at this point." (Jin10 Data) In addition, Russian local authorities said a fire broke out at the Ilsky Oil Refinery in the Krasnodar region following a drone attack. (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM News, May 25: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper gained 1.06%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.47%. SHFE lead rose 0.06%, SHFE zinc rose 0.34%. SHFE tin gained 1.22%. SHFE nickel rose 0.23%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.54%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.37%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 0.58%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 1.07%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.48%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore gained 0.25%, rebar rose 1.23%, hot-rolled coil rose 1.03%, and stainless steel edged up. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract and the most-traded coke contract hit the daily limit up with gains of 7.97% and 7.99%, respectively. Overseas base metals: The London Metal Exchange (LME) was closed on May 25 for the UK bank holiday and will resume trading on May 26. Precious metals: as of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 0.86% and COMEX silver gained 2.44%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures rose 0.64% and the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 2.27%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.2% and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.01%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 3.36% to 2,901 points. As of 11:38 on May 25, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices in North China against the front-month contract were reported at an average discount of 360 yuan/mt to a discount of 280 yuan/mt. The average price fell 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average transaction price was 105,230 yuan/mt, up 1,035 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Macro front Domestic: [Huawei Announces Semiconductor Tao's Law] On May 25, Huawei officially announced a new law in the semiconductor field. "Tao's Law" proposes replacing "geometric scaling" with "temporal scaling," achieving new breakthroughs in transistor density and system performance through logic folding technology. This marks the first time China has proposed a new principle guiding industrial development in the global semiconductor field. By 2031, high-end chip transistor density based on this law is expected to reach the equivalent level of the 1.4nm process node. (People's Daily) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Result in Net Injection of 257 billion yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 258 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. 1 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. On the US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.3% to 99.03. Kevin Hassett, chief economic adviser to US President Trump, said he believes that the eventual decline in oil prices will create room for the Fed to cut interest rates. "We again expect that once a deal is reached, energy prices will plunge," Hassett said. "When that happens, the Fed will have plenty of room to take the right action and lower interest rates." He emphasized that he respects the Fed's independence and praised Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as Fed Chairman last Friday. Although the surge in US fuel prices caused by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a growing political risk to Trump and his Republican Party in the November midterm elections, Hassett believes that the accelerating inflation is mainly driven by energy prices. "If you look at the last few data reports, energy prices are absolutely concerning, but core prices have barely moved at all," he said. "I think once we see energy prices pull back, due to declining energy prices, you may actually see negative inflation." (Jin10 Data) According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June was 97.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 2.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July was 84.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 14.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike was 0.3%. (Jin10 Data) On data: Today, data including China's year-to-date installed power generation capacity in April and its year-on-year rate will be released. In addition, attention should be paid to: 500 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos will mature today. In addition, it is worth noting that due to the Memorial Day holiday, US stock markets will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday); CME's precious metals and US crude oil futures contract trading will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on the 26th, and US stock and US Treasury futures contract trading will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 26th. Due to the Buddha's Birthday holiday, Hong Kong stock markets will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday), with both southbound and northbound trading suspended; South Korean stock markets will also be closed for one day on the same day. In addition, due to the Spring Bank Holiday, the UK stock market will be closed on Monday, May 25; trading of ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on May 26. Investors are advised to take note. (Jin10 Data) Overseas exchange closure arrangements are as follows (all in Beijing time): Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 5.92% and Brent down 5.32%. Rising expectations of a US-Iran deal boosted global risk sentiment, putting oil prices under pressure. The direct catalyst for the oil price decline was signs of improvement in actual transit conditions through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency citing a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, 33 vessels — including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels — passed through the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours on Sunday after receiving authorization from the IRGC Navy. (Wallstreetcn) The Washington Post reported on May 24 that the US and Iran had reached agreement on a framework for a memorandum of understanding (MOU), which, once signed, would fully restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. Citing an anonymous senior US government official, the report said the US and Iran had developed an MOU "framework" that includes a 60-day ceasefire extension to allow both sides to reach a "final agreement" on permanently ending hostilities with Iran, during which the Strait of Hormuz would be demined and reopened. The official said the MOU includes a "commitment" that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. Over the next two months, the US and Iran will discuss the "mechanism" for implementing this commitment. However, neither side signed any agreement on May 24. (Xinhua) Trump said on social media on Saturday that a US-Iran deal was largely done, including the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and told US representatives not to rush into a deal. But on Sunday he said the deal was "not fully done yet." US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had previously said there could be "some good news" on the Hormuz issue in the coming hours. Iran remained cautious. Iran's Tasnim News Agency warned that the draft agreement could still collapse due to US obstacles on several key terms — including Iran's demand for unfreezing assets. (Wallstreetcn) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Today, SMM's price taking from the SGE Ag(T+D) at 10:00 was 18,710 yuan/kg, with premiums quoted at TD -40 to -10 yuan/kg, averaging -25 yuan/kg. Silver futures traded in a range-bound manner today. The final draft of the US-Iran agreement has been reached, with specific details expected to be released today. Close attention should be paid to Voss's sworn speech tonight. Spot market side, suppliers of national-standard silver ingots posted mainstream quotations at discounts of 40 yuan/kg to 10 yuan/kg against TD. Most suppliers in Shanghai reported that premiums on branded silver ingots narrowed slightly, with a few clients' designated brand silver ingot transaction prices leaning toward the higher end of quotations. The involution in market quotations eased somewhat, with only some national-standard spot silver ingots maintaining quotations at the lower end, widening the price spread between high and low quotations. Some downstream enterprises made just-in-time procurement through bargaining, also reflecting that spot cargo at large discounts in the market decreased, though procurement sentiment remained cautious. In Shenzhen, non-delivery brand quotations, while still deviating from mainstream quotations, saw a narrower price difference compared to the previous day, with discounts narrowing to around TD -50 yuan/kg. Overall, silver spot premiums narrowed somewhat, but market sentiment remained cautious.