SMM Analysis: Impact Estimation of the Myanmar Earthquake on the Wafer Segment and the Outlook for the Upstream PV Market in April. As the earthquake occurred at the month-end of March, based on the current SMM summary, the impact on the crystal pulling production in March is estimated to be around 1.8GW-2.2GW, with a slight decrease in the wafer production schedule for March compared to previous estimates. The neutral impact estimation on the wafer production schedule for April is around 3-3.4GW, and the wafer production schedule for April has decreased from just over 60GW to below 60GW.

SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Temporary Factors Weaken Polysilicon Demand, Module Inventory Remains Low. Over the weekend, the price of N-type recharging polysilicon was 39-45 yuan/kg, and the price of N-type dense polysilicon was 38-42 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remained temporarily stable, with month-end transactions gradually unfolding in the market. However, the negotiation atmosphere was weak, and price increases faced resistance. The earthquake in Myanmar may significantly impact wafer production in Yunnan in April, and downstream demand may fall short of expectations.

[SMM Analysis: Frequent Polysilicon Transactions After the Holiday, Actual Transaction Prices Rise] According to SMM, within less than half a month of operation, multiple polysilicon transactions have been recorded, involving not only some small enterprises in operation but also several top-tier enterprises, with transaction prices showing an upward trend. It is reported that the shipment price of mixed materials from some top-tier enterprises has risen to nearly 42 yuan/kg, while downstream purchases from small factories have even reached 42 yuan/kg. When converted to N-type dense small materials, the price reaches 43 yuan/kg, reflecting an increase of 1 yuan/kg compared to pre-holiday levels. The range of 42-43 yuan/kg has become the mainstream actual transaction price for major manufacturers.

[Another "531" Rush for Installations Expected, PV Module Prices May Increase by 0.02-0.03 RMB/W?] According to industry sources, several dealers have indicated that major PV module producers are preparing for a price increase, with a range of 0.02 RMB/W to 0.03 RMB/W. In response, Polaris conducted a survey of some module enterprises. A few top-tier enterprises confirmed the situation, while others explicitly stated that there are currently no plans to adjust prices, with the overall stance of enterprises being one of observation. (Polaris Solar PV Network)

Supply: In 2023, China's annual silicon metal production was 3.8 million mt. From January to August 2024, cumulative production reached 3.24 million mt, up 41% YoY.

In August, the polysilicon market encountered another upheaval!

This week, the spot and futures prices of silicon metal showed divergent trends.

This week, the mainstream transaction prices for P-type dense polysilicon are 35-40 yuan/kg, and the transaction prices for N-type polysilicon are 41-48 yuan/kg.

The polysilicon market, vital for solar module manufacturing, has seen significant price fluctuations due to various market factors and supply-demand dynamics. Mainland China has become a dominant force, influencing both production capacity and global price forecasts. The country's production facilities, such as Asia Silicon, have expanded rapidly, with Chinese producers accounting for over 75% of the global polysilicon output by 2022. This expansion has reshaped global supply chains and increased the pressure on polysilicon demand, as the solar energy sector experiences remarkable growth. Global trends, including soaring solar capacity and the expansion of upstream module supply chains, have influenced polysilicon production capacity and output. The increasing demand for solar modules has led to a rise in polysilicon prices, with high domestic demand in China being a key driver. However, the polysilicon market faces challenges in forecasting prices due to the dynamic nature of the industry and the interplay of supply, demand, and external factors. Stakeholders in the polysilicon market must adopt strategic measures to navigate price fluctuations and market conditions. Diversifying sourcing channels, establishing robust risk management frameworks, and fostering collaborative partnerships can help mitigate the impact of price volatility. Metal.com, a leading global non-ferrous metal electronic trading platform, provides real-time price information, logistics services, and financial services to facilitate safer and more transparent transactions in the polysilicon market. In conclusion, the polysilicon market is influenced by a myriad of factors, including Mainland China's production capacity, global solar growth, and supply chain expansions. Stakeholders must remain vigilant about potential shifts in polysilicon prices and adapt their strategies to the evolving market dynamics.

Silicon market firmed up in December. Low-grade ore price shot up amid a supply and demand mismatch, while high-grade ore price had limited room to make gains amid weak demand mismatch and falling futures price.