In June, the sodium-ion battery industry chain showed strong momentum. End-use demand continued to be released upstream, driving high growth for both cathode materials and hard carbon anodes, further tightening the supply-demand balance. SMM data shows that sodium-ion battery cathode production rose 22% MoM and hard carbon anode production rose 17% MoM, while the pace of supply expansion still struggled to match demand growth, with a clear seller's market.

SMM July 3 News: The most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 15,850 yuan/mt in intraday trading. In the morning session, it surged in a choppy manner, hitting an intraday high of 15,965 yuan/mt, before turning downward and weakening. In the afternoon, it continued to consolidate at lows, recovered slightly in late trading, and traded in a choppy manner. At the close, it settled at 15,885 yuan/mt, ending a four-day losing streak and recording a small bullish candlestick, gaining 120 yuan, or 0.76%. In the short term, lead prices were pressured by three bearish factors: weak seasonal demand in the battery off-season, inventory buildup from concentrated production resumptions at primary lead enterprises, and expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. However, tight supply of scrap batteries pushed up smelting costs, and widespread production cuts due to losses at secondary lead smelters, combined with a global shortage of refined lead, provided bottom support for prices. In the short term, SHFE lead remains in the doldrums, with limited downside room. In the future, the focus should be on tracking downstream procurement, production resumptions at secondary lead smelters, lead ingot imports, and macro inventory changes outside China. Data Source Statement: Other data beyond public information is based on public data, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM, and is for reference only, not constituting any decision-making advice.

[SMM Analysis: Copper Prices Rebound at Week's End, Marginal Improvement in Copper Scrap Supply] In the first week of July (June 30-July 3), the copper scrap market operated under three overlapping factors: the second week after the implementation of the reverse invoicing regulation, the onset of the high-temperature off-season, and copper prices holding the 100,000 yuan mark. The overall supply-demand weakness that began in June persisted. The most-traded SHFE copper contract moved sideways within the 102,020-103,070 yuan/mt range, never breaching the psychological level of 100,000 yuan/mt, while the wait-and-see sentiment among end-users remained unabated...

[China's ore shortage situation unchanged, July zinc concentrate TCs continue to decline]: From weekly data, the SMM Zn50 domestic weekly average TC fell 400 yuan/mt Zn WoW to -600 yuan/mt Zn, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index fell $5.33/dmt WoW to -$82.83/dmt....

This week (June 29 – July 3), the weekly average Yangshan copper premium B/L transaction price range was $49.78–61.16/mt, QP July, with an average of $55.47/mt. The warrant transaction weekly average price range was $49.55–60.98/mt, QP July, with an average of $55.27/mt. EQ copper CIF B/L was $20.5–30.99/mt, QP July, averaging $25.75/mt. As of July 3, the LME copper to SHFE copper 2607 contract ex-FX SHFE/LME price ratio was 1.1359, with import losses around 163.35 yuan/mt, further narrowing from the prior period (loss of 234.08 yuan/mt). As of Friday, the LME copper nearby spread held a slight contango, with the July-August roll gap at -$21.79/mt. Mainstream high-quality ER copper warrant offers are currently near $70–78/mt, with B/L offers near $68–80/mt; CIF B/L EQ copper traded around $40–50/mt. Yangshan copper premiums extended their uptrend this week, driven by the same logic as last week — earlier market expectations of reduced July port arrivals continued to materialize into actual cargo tightness, gradually revealing price support. On the ratio side, narrowing import losses corroborated the spot logic of tight supply. Overall, this week marks the ongoing transmission from last week's "arrival-cut expectations" into "physical shortage," with supply contraction as the primary boost for premiums, rather than the price ratio or demand-side pull. According to an SMM survey, as of Thursday this week (July 2), China bonded zone copper inventories fell about 1,300 mt WoW from the prior period (June 25) to 39,700 mt. Shanghai bonded inventories dropped 1,100 mt WoW to 35,800 mt, while Guangdong bonded stocks shed 200 mt WoW to 3,900 mt. Bonded zone inventories declined slightly for a second consecutive week, consistent with tighter port arrivals and shrinking available cargoes. The destocking pace picked up from last week (basically flat total), suggesting bonded restocking speeds lagged the consumption pace. Looking ahead, if the tight July port-arrival pattern persists through the month, supply-side support for premiums may hold, though it's worth watching whether momentum from this leg up has been partially priced in. Focus on whether July actual port arrival data will validate the current shortage expectations and whether the spot market may continue shifting to a backwardation structure.

[SMM Analysis: Sodium-ion Battery Market June Review (I): Cathode Undersupply and Anode Volume Release Resonate, Industry Chain Prosperity Continues to Rise] SMM, July 3: In June, the sodium-ion battery (hereinafter "sodium-ion battery") industry chain demonstrated strong momentum. Sustained release of end-use demand transmitted upstream, with both cathode materials and hard carbon anodes experiencing high growth, further intensifying the supply-demand tension. SMM data showed that sodium-ion battery cathode production rose 22% MoM and hard carbon anode production rose 17% MoM for the month, while the pace of supply-side capacity expansion still struggled to match demand growth, clearly indicating a seller's market...

[SMM Analysis: Surging Demand in H1 2026 Drives Industry Expansion, Anode Volume and Price Both Rise, Welcoming Recovery Opportunities] SMM July 3: In H1 2026, a surge in downstream demand drove steady improvement in the anode industry’s prosperity, significantly releasing overall market vitality.

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]Primary-Scrap Spread Narrows Sharply as ADC12-A00 Premium Hits a Record High: Has the Window Opened for Primary Aluminum to Replace Scrap?

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]The price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap narrowed sharply, and with cost support, the spread between ADC12 and primary aluminum continued to widen.

[SMM Analysis] Anti-Dumping Investigation Arrived China's Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Exports Encountered Major Changes