[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coke producers maintained relatively good operating rates, and coke supply increased steadily. Downstream rigid demand for coke still existed, coke producers' shipments were relatively smooth, and there was no obvious inventory pressure for the time being. Demand side, steel mills' daily average hot metal output increased, driving up rigid demand for coke. However, futures declined recently, and end-use demand remained weak, weakening market sentiment and reducing steel mills' purchase willingness. In summary, after the coke price hike, market sentiment weakened, and the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Hold Up Well, and Market Inquiry Activity Increases] The Pr-Nd oxide market as a whole continued to hold up well. Under the impact of expectations of tighter supply and pronounced fluctuations in futures prices, upstream suppliers kept raising their offers, while low-priced cargoes tightened rapidly, pushing Pr-Nd oxide prices up to 722,000-728,000 yuan/mt.

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices retreated after a rapid rise and fluctuated downward overall. SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate prices continued to pull back, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate largely moving in sync. The futures market saw wild swings, with the price range of the most-traded contract fluctuating down from 170,000-173,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 154,300-162,800 yuan/mt. Intraday volatility was significant on each trading day, open interest continued to decline, and capital participation weakened. Market transactions remained sluggish, with upstream and downstream psychological price levels diverging further. Upstream lithium chemical plants saw stronger sentiment to hold prices firm and withhold sales this week, with relatively weak willingness to sell spot orders, and quoted prices generally staying above 164,000 yuan/mt. Downstream material plants, however, saw long-term contract volumes and customer-supplied volumes arrive successively at the beginning of the month, and, coupled with restocking through dip-buying at the start of last week, held relatively sufficient inventory at the beginning of the month. Purchase willingness was relatively weak, with only just-in-time procurement maintained, and the psychological purchase price level was basically around 155,000 yuan/mt. Market inquiries were moderate, but actual transactions were relatively mediocre. This week's price decline was mainly driven by the combined impact of multiple factors: First, supply side, repeated market rumors surrounding mines in Zimbabwe and Jiangxi continued to ferment, prompting some funds to close positions and exit, which became an important force pushing prices lower. As prices retreated from highs, earlier bulls showed stronger willingness to take profits; meanwhile, open interest continued to decline, reflecting increasingly cautious market sentiment. In addition, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased uncertainty from the macro perspective, also putting some pressure on prices. Capital flows were characterized by continued position reductions and rollovers into deferred-month contracts. Futures open interest continued its declining trend this week, with position reductions of varying degrees on each trading day. It is worth noting that open interest between the 2605 contract and the 2609 contract has already shifted, indicating that funds are gradually moving to deferred months and that the market's willingness to participate in the short-term market has declined. Looking ahead, the market is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern in the short term. Supply side, continued attention is still needed on the recovery of shipments from Zimbabwean mines and on when Jiangxi mines will resume production; demand side, the intensive launch of new car models in April is expected to drive marginal demand improvement. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain relatively strong in the short term.

SMM News, Apr 2: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, with its center moving higher than the previous day. Affected by elevated aluminum prices, shipping sentiment was stronger than buying sentiment, while end-user downstream purchase sentiment was weak and spot cargo circulation was relatively ample. Market transactions were mainly concentrated at discounts of 10 yuan/mt to the SMM A00 aluminum average price. Today, the east China market shipping sentiment index was 3.43, up 0.02 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.01, up 0.01 MoM. Aluminum futures prices remained elevated, but in the central China market, traders were overall more bullish than bearish. Although downstream orders were not enough to support excessive stockpiling, traders were relatively active in purchasing for hedging purposes. After the initial stage, shipments from sellers declined, while higher-bid purchasing increased, driving market quotes and transaction prices all the way up. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a discount of 40 yuan/mt to the central China price to a premium of 10 yuan/mt over the central China price. Today, the central China market shipping sentiment index was 2.79, up 0.03 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.44, up 0.02 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 2,000 mt from the previous period today, with Guangdong as the main source of the inventory buildup. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its seasonal buildup after the Chinese New Year. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.

Shanghai copper spot to remain weak tomorrow. On the supply side, the import window is open, raising expectations of further inflows. Some imported cargoes are circulating, keeping spot discounts under pressure. Meanwhile, some smelters are accelerating shipments to reduce inventories before the holiday, adding to supply pressure. On the demand side, downstream buyers remain cautious, mostly purchasing on rigid needs with limited appetite for higher prices. Some pre-holiday restocking ahead of the Qingming festival may offer modest support, but it is unlikely to reverse the overall weak supply-demand balance. In summary, spot quotes against the 2604 contract are expected to hold at current levels.

SMM, April 2: Today in Guangdong, spot premiums for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at 200 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from yesterday; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 96,365 yuan/mt, down 660 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 96,260 yuan/mt, down 660 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory continued to decline, marking the 13th consecutive drop and falling below 50,000 mt, the lowest level for the same period in recent years. Stimulated by the dual factors of continued inventory declines and lower copper prices, suppliers actively held prices firm, while downstream buyers also took the initiative to replenish stocks as copper prices fell, and overall trading improved from yesterday. Today, procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong stood at 2.52, up 0.03 from the previous trading day, while shipment sentiment was 3.68, up 0.07 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, both inventory and copper prices fell, suppliers actively held prices firm, and overall trading was better than yesterday.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in the doldrums. Supply side, as the import window has opened, expectations for subsequent inflows of cargo from outside China have strengthened, and some imported cargo circulated in the market during the day, continuously pressuring spot discounts. Meanwhile, according to SMM, some smelters had a need to reduce inventory ahead of the holiday and intended to accelerate the pace of shipments, further increasing circulation pressure in the spot market. Demand side, downstream enterprises still showed limited acceptance of current price levels, with overall procurement still dominated by just-in-time procurement and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. However, as the Qingming Festival approaches, some downstream enterprises may have pre-holiday stockpiling demand, which could provide some support to the spot market, but is expected to be insufficient to reverse the overall weak supply-demand pattern. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at the current level tomorrow.

In North China today, spot prices for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at an average discount of 100 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average transaction price was 95,910 yuan/mt, down 915 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

[China’s Aluminum Ingot Inventory Continues to Build Up, Aluminum Prices Remain in a High-Level Consolidation Pattern ]Overall, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained the core factor affecting the global aluminum market. A series of production cuts and damage incidents at Middle Eastern aluminum plants is expected to provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices in and outside China, coupled with support from expectations of a gradual release of peak-season demand in China. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Tailwinds Boosted Lead Prices Higher; Follow-up Focus on Alignment With Fundamentals] US President Trump said he would consider a ceasefire only if the Strait of Hormuz were opened. Recently, there have been signs of easing geopolitical tensions outside China, and market risk aversion sentiment has weakened, leading to a relative rebound in nonferrous metals, among which imported lead has flowed into the Chinese market...