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On January 30, the most-traded SHFE tin contract sn2603 experienced a significant correction following a previous sustained upward trend, as macro sentiment cooled and funds took profits, leading to a broad decline in futures prices. The intraday price fell sharply with a wide range, with open interest decreasing by 8,589 lots for the day, and it finally closed at 409,000 yuan/mt, down 8.26% from the previous day's settlement price. On the LME side, three-month LME tin also moved lower, temporarily quoted at $52,500/mt, a decrease of 3.67%. On the overseas supply side, data released by Australia's Metals X showed that tin concentrate production at its Renison mine reached 3,319 mt in Q4 2025, surging 46.1% QoQ, boosting full-year production to 10,747 mt, nearing a historical high. The ore mining grade for the quarter significantly improved by 55% to 2.34%, while the mineral processing recovery rate increased to 82.34%, reflecting continued improvements in mine production efficiency. If this production level can be maintained, it may partially alleviate market concerns about overseas supply. Demand side, the weak trend persists. Although the price decline prompted the release of some orders, current price levels remain at a relatively high level, limiting the release of pre-holiday restocking demand. The terminal electronics industry continues to face cost pressure from rising metal prices, resulting in slow demand transmission; in the PV market, after the installation rush in December, new projects in Q1 are limited, making it difficult to effectively boost demand. Overall, tin prices have entered an adjustment phase driven by weakening macro drivers, improving overseas supply expectations, and persistently weak demand. Going forward, close attention should be paid to pre-holiday macro developments, the implementation of Indonesia's RKAB policy, and global inventory changes. In the short term, tin prices may continue their fluctuating trend with the price center gradually shifting downward. Industry participants are advised to engage rationally and focus on risk control.

SMM January 30: The most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 17,035 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, a large amount of funds from bulls withdrew, and SHFE lead fluctuated downward, touching a low of 16,850 yuan/mt during the tail of the session. It finally closed at 16,865 yuan/mt, down 260 yuan/mt, or 1.52%. A large bearish candlestick was recorded. Yesterday afternoon, lead prices rose, which stimulated downstream fear of rising sentiment, so downstream battery enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm increased slightly. Some battery enterprises had completed pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling, and purchasing sentiment was low today. Some traders offered at large discounts to make sales, while secondary lead smelters' offer discounts were basically flat compared with yesterday. Next week, battery enterprises will gradually begin to suspend production for the holiday, and their willingness to purchase lead ingots will drop to a freezing point. The spot market is mixed with both longs and shorts, and lead prices are expected to continue fluctuating at lows. It is necessary to pay attention to whether a broad rise in precious metals and nonferrous metals will drive lead prices to warm up. Data source statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM Jan. 30:        The most-traded SHFE zinc 2603 contract opened at 26,165 yuan/mt. After opening, bulls reduced their positions, and the price center of SHFE zinc continued to decline, hitting a low of 25,625 yuan/mt during the session. It finally closed down at 25,835 yuan/mt, down 160 yuan/mt or 0.62%. Trading volume decreased to 165,000 lots, and open interest fell by 6,528 lots to 106,000 lots. SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the 10-day and 60-day daily average lines providing support below. Affected by end-user enterprises taking holidays one after another, operating rates in galvanizing and die-casting zinc alloy declined across the board this week, end-use consumption weakened, and support at the bottom of the price was insufficient, causing SHFE zinc to retreat from highs.

SMM January 30: The SHFE/LME zinc price ratio continued to fluctuate below 7.6 this week, and the import window for zinc ingots remained closed. Overseas, the US dollar fell to a four-month low, supporting nonferrous metals. Geopolitical tensions and rising precious metal prices drove zinc prices higher, with LME zinc hitting highs. However, due to the US Fed's hawkish signals pushing the US dollar to rebound, LME zinc gave back gains and edged lower. Domestically, driven by overseas markets and precious metal prices, SHFE zinc rose. Subsequently, disruptions in overseas zinc ore supply provided support, and SHFE zinc continued to climb before following the overseas market downward. Overall, the SHFE/LME ratio remained stable. Next week, the SHFE/LME ratio is expected to remain stable.

LME Zinc: At the beginning of the week, the US dollar fell to a four-month low, supporting nonferrous metals, while natural gas prices in Europe and the US surged due to cold weather, increasing overseas smelting costs, which pushed LME zinc higher. Subsequently, LME zinc briefly pulled back, but the US dollar continued to decline to a nearly four-year low, coupled with ongoing overseas destocking and geopolitical risks, driving zinc prices up again. Thereafter, tensions in the international situation and rising precious metals lifted zinc prices, but the US Fed did not cut interest rates this month, and the US dollar rebounded, causing LME zinc to shift into a fluctuating trend. Later, high crowding in futures and the suspension of a Chinese-invested zinc ore project in Bolivia disrupted supply, combined with a decline in overseas inventories, leading to a rapid surge in LME zinc. Then, hawkish signals from the US Fed prompted a US dollar rebound, causing LME zinc to give up gains and move lower. As of 15:00 this Friday, LME zinc recorded $3,397/mt, up $128/mt, an increase of 3.92%. SHFE Zinc: At the beginning of the week, SHFE zinc continued last week's fluctuating trend. Subsequently, driven by LME and precious metal prices, SHFE zinc opened higher with a gap. However, weak domestic fundamentals, as downstream sectors gradually entered the off-season, put SHFE zinc under pressure and caused it to drop back slightly. Thereafter, due to a slight reduction in social inventory and LME zinc maintaining high levels, SHFE zinc strengthened again. But sluggish trading in the spot market, affected by high prices and the Chinese New Year break, indicated significant resistance, and with support from futures funds, SHFE zinc shifted into sideways movement. Later, disruptions in overseas zinc ore supply, combined with an overall rise in the nonferrous metals sector, led SHFE zinc to follow with a significant surge, eventually syncing downward as LME zinc pulled back. As of 15:00 this Friday, SHFE zinc recorded 25,835 yuan/mt, up 1,250 yuan/mt, an increase of 5.08%.

On January 28, 2026, driven by multiple factors, domestic aluminum prices experienced a new round of surge. On that day, the weighted open interest of SHFE aluminum surged by 93,000 lots in a single day, with trading activity exploding. The core reasons for the price increase were the U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict disrupting trade, capital diversion from precious metals position limits, and rising expectations for alumina production cuts. This represents a typical event-driven and capital-driven rally, sharply contrasting with the current weak fundamentals in downstream sectors. The SHFE aluminum main continuous contract surged 5.75% in a single day, closing at 25,640 yuan/mt, setting another historical high. Simultaneously, the SHFE introduced two major measures—adding two new aluminum ingot delivery brands and raising risk control parameters for multiple varieties—implementing a policy package of "expanding supply and strengthening risk control" to precisely address market anomalies and potential risks, balancing the industrial supply-demand and financial speculation landscape. Delivery Brand Expansion: Easing Deliverable Supply Pressure and Optimizing Market Supply Structure On the day, the SHFE announced the addition of Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum & Power's "QY" brand and Geely Baimao Group's "Geely Baimao" brand aluminum ingots as delivery brands, involving a combined capacity of 1.3 million mt across three aluminum plants, marking a significant expansion in the aluminum futures delivery market for the year. According to SMM data estimates, in the absence of new primary aluminum processing enterprises commencing operations, China's actual new deliverable aluminum ingot volume in 2026 is expected to exceed 1 million mt. Simultaneously with the delivery expansion, the SHFE announced that, starting from the close of trading on January 30, it will raise the price fluctuation limits and margin ratios for products such as alumina, lead, and zinc. Among these, the price fluctuation limit for alumina futures will be adjusted to 9%, and the margin ratios for hedging and general open interest will be raised to 10% and 11%, respectively. Although this adjustment does not specifically target the main aluminum futures contract, alumina, as a core upstream raw material for aluminum, will see its tightened risk control parameters indirectly transmitted to the aluminum industry chain, curbing cross-product speculative linkages. This move precisely aligns with the current supply-demand imbalance in China's aluminum ingot market. Demand side, the market is currently facing multiple demand constraints: the traditional off-season combined with high aluminum prices significantly suppresses end-user purchase willingness, downstream profile enterprises have already entered their holiday pace ahead of schedule, and aluminum billet processing fees continue to operate at low levels, even reaching "zero processing fees" or "negative processing fees." Against this backdrop, profile plants mostly maintain a wait-and-see attitude with high inventory levels, and stockpiling sentiment is becoming increasingly cautious. Affected by this, more billet plants initiated annual maintenance and implemented production cuts or suspensions in the second half of January, further evidencing the weakness in downstream demand. Under the transmission of weakening demand at the beginning of the year, supply and inventory side, the latest SMM data shows that on January 26, aluminum ingot inventory in mainstream consumption areas in China reached 777,000 mt, an increase of 117,000 mt from month-end December, up 18% MoM, reaching a high for the same period in recent three years. SMM temporarily predicts that the inventory peak in 2026 may approach or even exceed the historical peak of 1.269 million mt recorded in 2023. Meanwhile, the decline in the proportion of liquid aluminum has further amplified the supply pressure on aluminum ingots—the proportion of liquid aluminum in domestic aluminum enterprises fell 2.25 percentage points MoM to 72.64% in late January, down 3 percentage points YoY from month-end December. This translates to a theoretical weekly increase in casting ingot volume of 25,000 mt, with a full-month estimated increase of around 100,000 mt, up over 10% MoM from the previous month. The expansion of delivery brands will effectively absorb the new casting ingot supply, alleviating inventory accumulation pressure in the spot market. SMM believes that the supplementation of delivery resources from Xinjiang and Guangxi production areas not only optimizes the regional layout of SHFE aluminum ingot deliveries, reducing cross-regional delivery logistics costs, but also enhances the price discovery efficiency of the futures market by increasing deliverable targets, reducing the risk of futures-spot divergence against the backdrop of high inventory. For industrial clients, the new delivery brands provide more target options for hedging, helping to strengthen risk management capabilities. Against the backdrop of weak demand and high inventory, price surges driven by capital conceal the risk of corrections. Simultaneously, the SHFE's increase in risk control parameters essentially aims to prevent excessive market speculation and guide market conditions to return to some extent to supply and demand fundamentals by raising trading costs and limiting price fluctuation ranges. Outlook: Strong Macroeconomic Conditions but Weak Fundamentals; Aluminum Prices Seek New Equilibrium Under Policy Guidance Overall, the two major measures by the SHFE form a policy mix of "loosening and tightening": the expansion of delivery brands increases supply and improves efficiency in the market, alleviating the tension between high inventory and scarce delivery resources; the upgrade of risk control parameters cools down the overheated market, curbs the spread of speculative sentiment, and precisely counteracts the current divergence in the aluminum market of "strong performance but weak fundamentals." In the short term, geopolitical conflicts on the macroeconomic front and sector rotation in capital flows will continue to dominate aluminum price fluctuations. However, with the implementation of risk control measures, speculative behavior will be partially constrained, limiting the upside room for prices. Looking ahead, the core contradiction in aluminum fundamentals remains focused on inventory destocking and demand recovery. If post-Chinese New Year downstream resumption falls short of expectations and inventory continues to accumulate, surpassing historical highs, it will exert strong pressure on aluminum prices. Meanwhile, the gradual implementation of new delivery brands will further enhance the anchoring effect of the futures market on spot aluminum, driving prices to partially return to supply-demand fundamentals and seek a new equilibrium. SMM cautions that the recent sharp rally in SHFE aluminum prices has been driven by event-driven factors and capital inflows, with market sentiment reaching a phase of euphoria. In the subsequent period, vigilance is warranted against sentiment cooling and price corrections triggered by multiple factors. Market participants should rationally use futures tools to hedge against price volatility, manage positions prudently, and avoid chasing rallies. SMM will continue to monitor macroeconomic liquidity performance, U.S.-Iran conflict developments, the implementation of alumina production cuts, and the pace of downstream stockpiling before the Chinese New Year and post-holiday resumption. These factors will collectively determine the future direction of the aluminum market.

On January 30, the most-traded SHFE tin sn2603 contract showed a trend of declining with reduced positions, once falling to the key 400,000 yuan/mt level during the session, and closed at 417,220 yuan/mt in the morning session, down 6.41% from the previous settlement price. On the LME, three-month LME tin continued its fluctuating trend in the doldrums, temporarily quoted at $53,000/mt, down 2.75%. After the previous consecutive gains, as macro sentiment cooled and funds took phased profits, futures prices pulled back rapidly today. Fundamentally, although Indonesia's RKAB policy remained not fully clear, JFX trading activity became more active, easing market concerns over a supply gap in Indonesia during January-February. Demand side remained under pressure; although the price decline released some rigid procurement demand and spot transactions recovered slightly, overall prices stayed at high levels, downstream restocking willingness before the holiday remained weak, with most participants maintaining a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Coupled with cost pressure on end-use industries from the overall rise in the metal sector, the transmission of demand upward was slow, providing limited actual support to the spot market. Overall, market sentiment gradually shifted from macro dominance to a game between macro factors and fundamentals. Going forward, it is necessary to continuously monitor changes in macro events before the holiday, as well as the progress of supply recovery in Indonesia and global inventory changes. Tin prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with the range center gradually shifting downward; it is advisable to respond rationally to fluctuations and cautiously control risks.

SMM Tin Morning Brief on January 30, 2026: Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2603) opened slightly higher in the night session and continued to rise, reaching a high of 469,950 yuan/mt before falling sharply during the session and closing at 436,720 yuan/mt, down 2.04%. Macro: (1) Earlier reports suggested that SpaceX and xAI might consider a merger, but the latest reports indicate that SpaceX is evaluating two options. According to informed sources, SpaceX is also considering a merger with Tesla. This suggests that Musk is weighing how to consolidate his business empire. Sources said the company has explored the feasibility of collaboration between SpaceX and Tesla, with some investors pushing for the idea. Other sources stated that before an IPO, SpaceX is also exploring a merger with xAI. Sources revealed that any deal could attract strong interest from infrastructure funds and Middle Eastern sovereign investors. The transaction may also require significant financing. Sources noted that SpaceX has not yet made a final decision, details may change, and the companies may decide to remain independent. Tesla's stock surged 4.5% in after-hours trading on Thursday. (2) The General Office of the State Council issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption." It promotes innovation and development across the entire chain in the automotive circulation and consumption sector, selects pilot cities, supports pilot initiatives in key areas of the automotive aftermarket, accelerates the removal of restrictive measures, explores tiered and classified management of automotive modifications, improves the certification system for classic cars, strengthens the construction of RV camping bases, and researches and improves relevant management systems and technical standards. It enhances international cooperation, develops automotive culture, supports the construction and operation of automotive museums, encourages the hosting of related events and activities, and fosters cross-border integration innovation projects combining automotive with tourism, culture, sports, etc. It promotes high-quality development of minibus and car rental services, improves the rental service network, cultivates and strengthens business entities, and enhances rental service levels. It further promotes the development of self-drive tourism, improves transportation conditions for self-drive tours, and creates a safe, comfortable, and convenient travel environment for self-drive tourism. Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to maintain stable production in January. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. Spot market: Traditional pre-holiday restocking orders have not seen increased volume due to high prices. Demand in the consumer electronics market is suppressed by the overall rise in metal prices. Although the PV sector has short-term expectations of an export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, high raw material prices significantly weaken order growth. Overall consumption support is limited, and the spot market remains sluggish. [Data Source Statement: Data other than publicly available information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and is for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use it to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

On January 29, the most-traded SHFE tin contract sn2603 fluctuated within the range of 436,000-454,000 yuan, and closed at 446,130 yuan/mt, up 0.28% from the previous settlement price. On the LME, three-month tin was quoted at $56,060/mt, down 1.29%, with both SHFE and LME tin consolidating at high levels. From a macro perspective, frequent geopolitical conflicts are impacting US dollar credibility, increasing market attention on nonferrous metals as safe-haven and value-storage assets. However, macro sentiment is highly volatile, and caution is warranted against potential pullback risks due to shifts in capital sentiment. Additionally, under the trade agreement reached between India and the EU, India has agreed to grant European automakers a quota far exceeding those in recent agreements, significantly reducing tariffs and opening greater access to its long-protected automotive market. The agreement will gradually allow up to 250,000 European-made cars to enter India at preferential tariff rates, a figure much higher than the 37,000 quota granted to the UK under another pact. Import tariffs on about 160,000 internal combustion engine cars will be reduced to 10% within five years, while for 90,000 EVs, tariffs will only begin to decrease in the tenth year to protect India's emerging EV market. The initial in-quota tariff for most vehicle categories will start at around 30%. Beyond this quota, the agreement also stipulates a reduction in tariffs for fuel-powered cars to 35% over ten years. Compared to India's current tariff of up to 110% on imported cars, this represents a substantial reduction. This unprecedented quota arrangement signals that both sides are reshaping economic relations through trade agreements. This move is expected to boost European auto exports to India and, combined with global new energy sector development, may drive long-term demand for related nonferrous metals. However, its actual transmission to the tin market will take time. In terms of supply, although Indonesia's RKAB policy remains unclear, JFX trading activity is becoming more active, and concerns over supply shortages in Indonesia in January-February may ease. Nevertheless, supply uncertainties in regions such as Myanmar and the DRC still require continuous attention. On the demand side, overall pressure persists. Pre-holiday restocking orders in the traditional sector have not seen significant volume due to high prices. Demand in the consumer electronics market is suppressed by rising metal prices, and although the PV sector has short-term expectations of an export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, high raw material prices are clearly dampening order growth, resulting in limited overall consumption support and continued sluggishness in the spot market. In summary, tin prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term, with no clear direction amid intertwined bullish and bearish factors. It is advisable to closely monitor overseas supply developments, changes in macro sentiment, inventory accumulation, and pre-holiday downstream production pace, and respond rationally to market fluctuations.

SMM January 29: From a macro perspective , overseas, escalating US-Iran military conflicts heightened shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, posing threats to aluminum production and export flows in surrounding countries, thereby increasing risks in the global aluminum trade system. Early Thursday (January 29) Beijing time, the US Fed concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting, announcing it would maintain the federal funds rate target range between 3.5% and 3.75%, in line with market expectations. Resilient US economic data eased inflation concerns. Domestically, 2026 macro policies focus on expanding domestic demand, with the Ministry of Commerce's campaign to boost consumption providing support. Growth in the new energy vehicle and clean energy industry chains benefits aluminum demand, but weak real estate loan data exerted some downward pressure on aluminum prices. On January 28, the SHFE announced the addition of Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum & Power's "QY" brand and Geely Baimao Group's "Geely Baimao" brand aluminum ingots as delivery brands, involving a combined capacity of 1.3 million mt from three aluminum plants, marking a significant expansion in the aluminum futures delivery market for the year. Meanwhile, recent intensive risk control and position limit measures for precious metals such as gold and silver triggered capital outflows from the precious metals market. As a core base metal, SHFE aluminum became a key target for capital allocation, injecting crucial financial momentum into price increases. Fundamentals , supply side, domestic and Indonesian aluminum production continued to ramp up, with daily average production steadily increasing, sustaining the supply growth trend. Expectations for production cuts at domestic alumina refineries recently increased, further boosting overall market bullish sentiment. Cost side, aluminum real-time costs were basically stable during the week. As aluminum prices hit another record high, aluminum's real-time theoretical profit surged 1,137 yuan/mt WoW to 8,745 yuan/mt. Demand side, environmental protection-driven production restrictions in central China showed renewed fluctuations, significantly impacting production stability at downstream plate/sheet, strip and foil enterprises. Moreover, consecutive sharp rises in aluminum prices dampened downstream stockpiling enthusiasm ahead of the holiday. Some aluminum extrusion sample enterprises had already entered the Chinese New Year break cycle early, with regional operating rates pulling back significantly. This week, the domestic aluminum extrusion operating rate was 44.3%, down 5.1 percentage points WoW. Building materials operating rates continued to decline, indicating overall weak demand. Some enterprises in east and south China will gradually start holidays next week, and industry operating rates will continue their seasonal downward trend. However, for industrial extrusions, influenced by adjustments to export tax rebate policies for PV modules and batteries, orders for PV frame extrusions and battery extrusions performed well, providing some support to enterprise operating rates. Simultaneously, the decline in the proportion of liquid aluminum further amplified aluminum ingot supply pressure. In late January, the proportion of liquid aluminum at domestic aluminum enterprises fell 2.25 percentage points WoW to 72.64%, down 3 percentage points YoY from the end of December. This equates to a theoretical weekly increase in casting ingot volume of 25,000 mt, with a full-month estimated increase of around 100,000 mt, up over 10% MoM. Inventory side, the inventory of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas on Thursday recorded 782,000 mt, an increase of 117,000 mt from the end of December, with a growth rate of 18.5%, reaching a high level compared to the same period over the past three years. Overall, the recent abnormal strengthening of SHFE aluminum prices is driven by three key factors: first, the escalation of US-Iran geopolitical conflicts significantly disrupted the trade of aluminum products; second, under the background of position limits in the precious metals market, there is a trend of capital flowing into the base metal sector; third, expectations for production cuts at domestic alumina refineries have risen, further boosting overall market bullish sentiment. The macro front remains strong, and the logic of a monetary easing cycle driven by expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts has not changed. Meanwhile, the short-term consecutive decline in the US dollar index continues to support non-ferrous metal prices. Supply side, domestic and Indonesian aluminum projects continue to ramp up smoothly, with daily average production steadily increasing, maintaining the trend of supply growth. Demand side performance is weak, as high aluminum prices suppress downstream enterprises' purchase willingness, leading to expectations of a decline in operating rates, and the overall spot trades are in a cold and wait-and-see pattern. Coupled with the ongoing inventory buildup, the conversion ratio of liquid aluminum continues to decrease, and the industry's supply-demand imbalance has yet to be effectively alleviated. In summary, the current SHFE aluminum price surge is event-driven and fueled by capital, with market trading sentiment in a phase of exuberance. Subsequently, one needs to be cautious about the risk of sentiment cooling and price correction due to multiple factors. SMM expects aluminum prices to maintain a considerable fluctuation at high levels in the short term, with the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract expected to operate within the range of 24,800-26,600 yuan/mt next week, and LME aluminum within the range of $3,220-3,440/mt. Subscribe to view SMM historical metal spot prices

SMM January 29: The most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 17,020 yuan/mt today. After brief consolidation in early trading, boosted by broad gains in nonferrous metals, SHFE lead climbed unilaterally to a high of 17,370 yuan/mt, then pulled back slightly and consolidated toward the session's close. It finally settled at 17,185 yuan/mt, up 190 yuan/mt or 1.12%, ending a four-day losing streak and forming a large bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow. Spot market transactions for lead ingots remained sluggish today. Supply side, offers for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site widened their discounts further; secondary lead enterprises showed reduced enthusiasm in making offers, with some maintaining yesterday's discount levels and others halting sales to adopt a wait-and-see stance. Demand side, a few downstream battery enterprises started holidays early, while those still with procurement needs only restocked limited volumes. In addition, SHFE lead saw an unusual rise today. If prices remain high tomorrow, restocking willingness among downstream battery enterprises will be suppressed, while lead smelters will find it hard to widen discounts due to losses. Spot market trading atmosphere is expected to become more mediocre. Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.

On January 29, the most-traded SHFE tin contract sn2603 showed a V-shaped trend in the morning. After opening slightly higher, it pulled back to around 436,000 yuan, then quickly rebounded. By the midday close, it was at 447,750 yuan/mt, up 0.65% from the previous day's settlement price. On the LME, three-month tin followed SHFE tin in consolidating at high levels, temporarily quoted at $56,815/mt, up 0.04%. Fundamentals present a mixed picture. Supply side, although Indonesia's RKAB policy is not yet fully clear, JFX trading activity has picked up, easing market concerns over a supply gap in Indonesia during January-February. Additionally, Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources proposed plans to set a minimum cost price for tin ore to protect miners' interests and encourage tailings recovery, which may help stabilize supply expectations in the Indonesian market. However, supply uncertainties remain in regions such as Myanmar and the DRC, requiring continued monitoring. Demand side, overall under pressure. Traditional pre-holiday restocking has been suppressed by high prices without significant volume increases. The consumer electronics market faces demand constraints due to overall rising metal prices. Although the PV sector has short-term export rush expectations due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, high raw material costs are clearly dampening order growth, resulting in limited overall consumption support. The spot market remains sluggish, with high prices significantly curbing downstream procurement. Macro perspective, frequent geopolitical conflicts are impacting US dollar credibility, increasing market attention to nonferrous metals as safe-haven and value-storage assets. However, macro sentiment is highly volatile, and caution is needed against potential pullback risks from shifts in capital sentiment. Overall, tin prices are expected to continue consolidating at high levels in the short term. It is advisable to monitor overseas supply developments, inventory changes, and the pace of downstream operations before the holiday.

1.29 SMM Morning Meeting Minutes Futures: During the night session on January 28, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2603 contract opened at 25,430 yuan/mt, reached a high of 25,585 yuan/mt, hit a low of 25,240 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 25,330 yuan/mt, down 310 yuan/mt or 1.21% from the previous close. Technically, the MA moving averages showed a bullish alignment (MA5: 25,038.92 > MA10: 24,692.96 > MA20: 24,428.46 > MA40: 24,042.75), while the MACD on the 4-hour candlestick chart turned to red bars (DIFF: 294.43, DEA: 201.51). In terms of open interest, the night session open interest was approximately 359,000 lots, down 3,409 lots from the daytime session. LME aluminum opened at $3,220/mt, reached a high of $3,314/mt, hit a low of $3,219/mt, and finally closed at $3,263.5/mt, up 1.59% from the previous day. Trading volume was 47,400 lots, an increase of 24,200 lots, while open interest was 699,000 lots, up 2,711 lots. Macro Front: In the early hours of Thursday, January 29, Beijing time, the US Fed concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting and announced it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, in line with market expectations. (Bullish ★) According to the State Taxation Administration, tax data showed that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the new energy vehicle industry chain continued to consolidate its leading advantage, with manufacturing sales revenue of new energy vehicles growing at an average annual rate of 49.5%; sales revenue from clean energy power generation, represented by wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power, grew at an average annual rate of 13.9%. (Bullish ★) Fundamentals: The operating rate for aluminum wire and cable edged up WoW over the past week, primarily due to the commencement of ultra-high voltage projects by the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid, which started to match orders won in H1. Some ultra-high voltage projects maintained construction progress despite low temperatures, supporting the operating rate and project advancement. Overseas export project demand was robust, with solar PV installation and grid upgrade projects in countries like Australia and Tanzania progressing smoothly, leading to steady growth in aluminum wire and cable exports. Aluminum wire and cable exports reached 272,000 mt in 2025, up 42% YoY, and are expected to maintain positive growth in 2026. Inventory side, social inventory built up by 5,000 mt from this Monday and by 39,000 mt from last Thursday. Primary Aluminum Market: In the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2602 contract rallied, with the price center moving higher than the previous trading day. Affected by high aluminum prices, downstream stockpiling sentiment was generally low, resulting in thin market trading volume. The mainstream market transactions were concentrated at discounts of 10 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt. This Wednesday, the selling sentiment index in the east China market was 2.76, down 0.07 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.27, up 0.12 WoW. SMM A00 aluminum closed at 24,260 yuan/mt, up 390 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 180 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Trading in the central China market remained sluggish on Wednesday. As aluminum prices rose and enterprises faced year-end payment needs, suppliers' willingness to sell strengthened significantly. However, environmental protection-related controls continued to intensify in many parts of Henan, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises declined further, resulting in low overall purchasing volume. Although traders were eager to sell, actual trading volume was limited, and transaction prices continued to trend lower, hovering between a discount of 20 yuan/mt to 60 yuan/mt to the central China price. The selling sentiment index in the central China market was 2.89 on Wednesday, up 0.07 WoW, while the buying sentiment index was 1.87, down 0.28 WoW. SMM central China price closed at 24,120 yuan/mt, up 360 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 320 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price spread between Henan and Shanghai was -140 yuan/mt, widening by 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Secondary Aluminum Raw Materials: On Wednesday, spot primary aluminum prices rose significantly from the previous trading day, with SMM A00 spot aluminum closing at 24,260 yuan/mt. Aluminum scrap prices generally followed the decline today. Yesterday, baled UBC was quoted at 17,500-18,000 yuan/mt (tax excluded), and shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) was quoted at 19,800-20,200 yuan/mt (tax excluded). In terms of the price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was 3,375 yuan/mt on January 28, while the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap was 2,461 yuan/mt. Regions such as Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Jiangxi closely followed the rise in aluminum prices, while Henan, Foshan, Guizhou, and Anhui adjusted prices more cautiously, increasing by 100-200 yuan/mt. Recently, directly affected by recycling policies and forced to follow the rise in aluminum prices, the market has shown a situation of "nominal prices without actual transactions." Scrap utilization enterprises in related provinces were forced to reduce or halt production, and downstream buying sentiment cooled significantly, leading to purchasing as needed. The aluminum scrap market is expected to hover at highs this week, with shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) mainly ranging between 19,700-20,200 yuan/mt (tax excluded). Downward pressures remain: as the Chinese New Year approaches, enterprises are gradually entering holiday schedules, scrapyards are closing early reducing market liquidity, downstream operating rates remain low, and resistance to high prices is strong. Close attention should be paid to primary aluminum trends, weather changes, and pre-holiday production halts to guard against the risk of a pullback from highs. Secondary Aluminum Alloy: Futures side, the aluminum alloy 2603 contract opened at 23,105 yuan/mt on Wednesday, experienced minor fluctuations in the morning, then began rising around 10:00, surged to 24,090 yuan/mt in the afternoon hitting a new high since listing, then pulled back somewhat, finally closing at 23,785 yuan/mt, up 730 yuan/mt or 3.17% from the previous trading day, with the move driven mainly by short covering. Spot market: Driven by event risk and capital flows, aluminum prices surged this Wednesday. A00 aluminum was quoted at 24,260 yuan/mt, up 390 yuan/mt, while SMM ADC12 was raised 150 yuan/mt to 24,150 yuan/mt. After outperforming during the early-week pullback, ADC12 producers lifted offers cautiously by 100-200 yuan/mt in the morning; once futures extended gains past 11 a.m., follow-through momentum added another 200-300 yuan/mt. Trading, however, was best described as “quoted but not dealt.” Downstream fear of high prices intensified, leaving overall turnover thin. Pre-holiday stockpiling enthusiasm was dented again, with some firms already planning an earlier holiday shutdown; demand is expected to weaken further. Overall, lofty aluminum prices and seasonal off-season demand are curbing activity, yet cost-side support from aluminum scrap, plus policy- and environmental-driven supply tightening, should keep secondary aluminum alloy prices fluctuating at highs in the near term. Focus ahead: raw-material circulation, downstream operating-rate shifts and pre-holiday stockpiling sentiment. Aluminum Market Summary: The recent sharp rally in SHFE aluminum stems from three drivers: (1) escalating U.S.–Iran tensions disrupting aluminum trade flows; (2) position-limit constraints in precious metals diverting funds into base metals; (3) rising domestic alumina refinery cut expectations, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Supply side: domestic and Indonesian aluminum projects continue ramp-ups, lifting daily average output; the uptrend persists. Demand side: high prices erode downstream purchase willingness, operating rates are set to decline and spot trades have turned cautious; inventory keeps building and the liquid-aluminum share keeps falling, leaving structural supply-demand imbalance unresolved. Overall, event- and fund-driven gains have pushed SHFE aluminum sharply higher and sentiment is temporarily euphoric; beware of cooling sentiment and pullback risks ahead. [The information provided is for reference only. It does not constitute direct investment or research advice. Clients should decide prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. SMM bears no responsibility for any decisions made by clients.]