SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of June 29 – July 3, 2026. Weak nickel and a softening off-season demand backdrop offset firm mill pricing and low inventories, steadying the benchmark contract near RMB 14,655/mt

[sheets & plates] Today, HRC prices partially declined by $1/mt, and export prices for other sheets & plates partially fell by $2/mt DoD, with HRC transaction prices at $488-496/mt. There were still new inquiries from the Middle East, but actual transactions were limited. Chinaʼs futures market continued to edge lower, and outside China, wait-and-see sentiment was strong as buyers waited for further price declines.

[Brazil] This week, Brazilian steel mills cut sheets & plates prices to stimulate sales, with the domestic HRC price index falling 29.8 USD/tonne to 701.6–759.2 USD/tonne. Meanwhile, the import market was also weakening, with HRC import prices dropping 30 USD/tonne to 620–660 USD/tonne, and hot-dip galvanized import prices plunging 90 USD/tonne to 760–820 USD/tonne. However, due to Brazil's 25% import tariff and concessions from domestic steel mills, buyers held a cautious wait-and-see attitude toward seaborne resources.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: Disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls Trigger US Dollar Plunge, Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Tests 400,000 Yuan Level Again]

Sinomach Heavy Equipment has achieved a major milestone in the intelligent high-end aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil construction project for Huafon Aluminum, successfully completing and commissioning China’s first 2400mm composite aluminum hot continuous rolling line. Once commissioned, the production line can stably produce 450,000 mt of high-precision aluminum plate/sheet and strip per year, with products widely used in key sectors of the national economy such as NEVs and rail transit. This not only provides core material support for the high-quality development of China's new energy industry and high-end equipment manufacturing, but also further strengthens the resilience and security level of China's industry chain and supply chain for critical new energy basic materials, advancing the aluminum processing industry toward the middle and high end of the value chain. Relevant representatives stated that Sinomach Heavy Equipment will next steadily push the production line to reach full capacity and efficiency, ensuring its long-term stable and orderly operation. At the same time, in response to the needs of the new energy and new materials industries, it will continue to deepen technological iteration and create more demonstration projects for domestically produced high-end equipment.

[7.3 Morning Meeting Minutes] US June ADP employment increased by 98,000, the smallest gain since March and below market expectations of 118,000. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract moved sideways in morning trading, closing the session at 125,880 yuan/mt, down 0.41%. A stronger US dollar and a shift in market expectations toward a more "hawkish" US Fed policy stance kept the macro environment challenging. Markets turned their attention to this week's US ADP and non-farm payrolls data. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to trade in the doldrums within the range of 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt.

This week, the aluminum processing industry was broadly under pressure from three factors: a deepening off-season, continuously weakening aluminum prices that fueled widespread price-drop sentiment, and shrinking exports. Only a few subsectors such as energy storage provided marginal support. The operating rate is expected to continue its downward trend in the short term.

[SMM Aluminum Weekly Review: Macro Headwinds Remain Dominant; Short-term Aluminum Prices Need More Support]

Today, the most-traded HRC contract drifted lower, closing at 3,283 at the end of the session, with an intraday decline of 0.33%. Spot HRC prices remained largely steady, edging down in some markets, while spot cold-rolled prices held stable for now. In terms of supply, HRC production increased by 7,700 mt WoW this period, with further increases expected. Demand side, end-users remained in the off-season, and the overall market atmosphere was relatively sluggish. Cost side, coke's 10th round of price increases is about to be initiated, and hot metal production fell by 4,700 mt WoW this week, weakening cost-side support somewhat but not yet causing it to collapse. Looking ahead, imbalances in sheets & plates continue to accumulate. Inventory increased by 179,500 mt WoW this week and may enter a sustained buildup channel subsequently. Fundamental support will remain weak going forward, but futures have already reached a relatively low level and will be in a phase of consolidating at lows in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to steel mill maintenance to assess whether cost support can be sustained.

On 1 July 2026, the EU replaced the steel safeguard measures implemented since 2018 with a significantly stricter import quota system—this is not merely a continuation of the old policy, but a complete reconstruction of its underlying logic: the core objective has upgraded from "preventing trade diversion" to "targeted defense against high carbon and excess capacity."