[Price Review] During the week, silver prices remained in the doldrums. In China, the Ag (T+D) contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange broke below the support level of 18,000 yuan/kg, while LBMA silver prices kept probing lower after falling below $75/oz. From a macro perspective, escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices to repeated new highs, while intensifying inflation concerns significantly cooled expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and delayed the timing of the first cut to year-end. The simultaneous strength in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields became the core factors suppressing silver prices. On Wednesday local time, the US Fed announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged. In the statement released that day, it noted that the impact of the Middle East situation on the US economy remained uncertain and that uncertainty surrounding the US economic outlook was still elevated. In addition, speculative demand and ETF holdings continued to decline, and market sentiment kept cooling. As for the gold/silver ratio, because silver posted a deeper decline, the ratio continued to rise. As of March 18, the LBMA gold/silver ratio had climbed to 63, a recent high. [Important Data] Bullish: US preliminary March one-year inflation expectations came in at 3.4%, above expectations and unchanged from the previous reading Bearish: US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.556 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.156 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: Continued hawkishness from the US Fed, the ECB rate decision, US inflation/employment data, COMEX silver delivery, together with the Boao Forum and geopolitical risks On March 19, the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, raised its 2026 PCE forecast to 2.7%, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled sharply. US-Iran Situation: As of March 19, the military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran had entered their 19th day, with high-intensity confrontation, no sign of a ceasefire, and the conflict spreading to multiple Gulf countries. In terms of the current impact on precious metals, financial suppression outweighed safe-haven demand. Against the backdrop of surging inflation expectations, the US dollar and US Treasury yields continued to rise, the timing of US Fed interest rate cuts was delayed, and silver prices were suppressed. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the doldrums amid the interplay between macro disruptions and fundamentals. On the macro front, caution is still warranted over the risk of continued US dollar strength and heightened volatility from any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict. On the fundamentals side, as PV export rush orders gradually approached their end, rigid demand for raw material procurement by silver nitrate enterprises declined in late March, weakening support from industrial demand. In China's spot market, as investment demand and rigid industrial demand softened, coupled with replenishment from imported silver ingots, circulating supply of silver ingots in the spot market became ample, and suppliers generally lowered spot premium quotes to facilitate transactions. The abnormally high spot premiums in China's spot market will come to an end. At the same time, profitability on imported silver ingots will also decline sharply, and spot premium quotes in actual spot silver ingot transactions are expected to return to rational levels.

Platinum prices surged sharply intraday. The most-traded PT2606 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened at 560 yuan/gram in the morning session, then held up well, with the peak gain exceeding 6%. It eventually closed the morning session at 565.1 yuan/gram, up 4.74%. In the spot market, spot platinum was quoted at a discount of 9–12 yuan/gram against PT2606, or at a discount of 1–4 yuan/gram against the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Sell 1. Spot discounts widened compared with the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, according to SMM, the notable intraday rise in platinum prices led downstream enterprises to mostly stay on the sidelines and temporarily suspend purchases. Some traders holding cargo said the bid-ask spread was wide, making deals difficult to conclude, and spot market trading turned weaker than yesterday.

Platinum prices stopped falling and rebounded, with the most-traded PT2606 platinum futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange up 1.34% in early trading, closing at 567.9 yuan/gram. In the spot market, spot platinum prices against PT2606 were quoted at discounts of 10-13 yuan/gram, or at discounts of 1-4 yuan/gram against the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Sell 1. Spot discounts widened slightly from the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, according to SMM, some traders holding cargo said that quotes at around a 10 yuan/gram discount to the June contract were difficult to conclude, and discounts needed to be lowered to above 12 yuan/gram. End-users made just-in-time procurement, and the spot market was still dominated by small-lot transactions, with overall trading normal.

Influenced by the Iran incident, gold prices gapped up at the opening of the Asian market yesterday (2nd), according to a report from HSBC Global Research. It is believed that rising oil prices pushed up gold prices, with the premium on the Shanghai Gold Exchange turning positive and reaching USD10 per ounce.

Hong Kong is accelerating its drive to become a global gold trading hub, in a move that supports China’s broader ambition to strengthen its influence over international bullion markets amid a shifting geopolitical landscape and record-high prices.

On February 25, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary announced measures to develop Hong Kong as a gold trading hub. Following a cooperation agreement with the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the upcoming 2026 launch of the Hong Kong Gold Central Clearing System, the government will pursue three initiatives: offering tax incentives for eligible gold trading and settlement institutions; supporting the establishment of an industry association to consolidate resources, enhance market promotion, and expand networks; and creating a training framework to equip professionals with updated market knowledge and skills.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) issued an announcement to adjust the margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for certain gold deferred delivery contracts, effective from the clearing time after the close on February 24, 2026. The specific adjustments were as follows: the margin ratios for Au(T+D), mAu(T+D), Au(T+N1), Au(T+N2), NYAuTN06, and NYAuTN12 contracts were lowered from 21% to 18%; starting from the next trading day, the price fluctuation limits for the aforementioned contracts were simultaneously reduced from 20% to 17%.

[SMM Silver Market Update] On February 24, SMM reported that the tight supply of silver ingots in the domestic spot market has persisted after the Chinese New Year. Suppliers showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, and spot premiums rose slightly compared to pre-holiday levels. During the morning session, mainstream transaction prices for standard silver ingots were at a premium of 1,800-2,000 yuan/kg over the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver deferred contract (Ag(T+D)); spot orders for less than 100 kg commanded even higher premiums.

Platinum prices consolidated today, with the most-traded PT2606 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closing the morning session at 539.15 yuan per gram, down slightly by 0.19%. Spot side, spot platinum against PT2606 was quoted at a discount of 4-8 yuan per gram, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's sell 1-PT2606 showing an inverted spread; spot discounts widened compared with the previous trading day. Regarding spot transactions, according to SMM, end-users' willingness to make just-in-time procurement weakened, with some end-users reporting that pre-holiday stockpiling was largely completed. Coupled with cooling investment enthusiasm, overall market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and some suppliers opted to widen discounts to boost shipments, keeping overall spot trading persistently sluggish.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Factors Create Volatility as US Dollar Index Continues Rising, LME Zinc Records a Bearish Candlestick] Overnight, the LME zinc contract opened at $3,370/mt, fluctuated downward initially to a low of $3,238/mt, then gradually rebounded to a high of $3,377/mt. During the night session, it maintained a fluctuating trend before finally closing down at $3,318.5/mt, a decrease of $51.5/mt, or 1.53%. Trading volume increased to 153,000 lots, while open interest fell by 3,702 lots to 236,000 lots.