[SMM Analysis: Raw Material Supply Continues to Decline, Operating Rates of Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Continue to Slide]: According to processing data from SMM's in-depth market survey, as of Friday this week, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, have declined to relatively low levels, with a combined operating rate of 47.05%. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained unchanged from the previous week. Some smelters have halted production for maintenance, while others have begun to implement phased production cuts to address the current shortage of raw material supply. During the same period, the operating rate of smelters in Jiangxi dropped significantly, remaining consistently lower than that in Yunnan and declining by approximately 35 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year. Several smelters began halting production for maintenance this month to alleviate the tight supply of scrap. The rising cost of scrap recycling, coupled with the decline in tin concentrate TCs, has driven up production costs for enterprises, eroding the profits of secondary tin smelting. Meanwhile, considering the stalled production resumptions in the Wa region of Myanmar, combined with the impact of the rainy season on transportation, tin ore imports from the Wa region are expected to continue declining this month. Additionally, due to transportation bans imposed by relevant Thai authorities in southern Myanmar, tin ore supply will be reduced by 500-1,000 mt (metal content). In summary, given the decline in the supply of tin ore and scrap, smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi are likely to maintain low operating levels or continue to experience a downward trend in the coming weeks.

[SMM Analysis: Operating Rates of Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Continue to Decline, with Supply from Myanmar Continuing to Shrink]: According to SMM's processing data obtained through in-depth market surveys, as of Friday this week, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, remained at a low level, with a combined operating rate of 53.86%. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan continued to decline compared to the previous week and was nearly 10 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. The treatment charges (TCs) for tin concentrates with a 40% grade remained at historically low levels, approaching the cost line of smelters and severely squeezing profit margins. Some smelters have halted production for maintenance, while others have begun to implement phased production cuts to address the current shortage of raw material supply. During the same period, the operating rate of smelters in Jiangxi was only 40.19%, consistently lower than that in Yunnan and down by approximately 15 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year. Some enterprises have been forced to implement long-term production cuts due to insufficient scrap supply, with some capacities potentially exiting the market permanently. The reduction in scrap sources and the dual squeeze on costs have led to an increase in scrap recycling costs combined with a decline in tin concentrate TCs, driving up production costs for enterprises and undermining the profitability of refined tin recycling from scrap. According to sources, relevant Thai authorities have decided to suspend the transportation of tin ore from Myanmar to Thailand starting from June 4. SMM understands that approximately 500-1,000 mt (metal content) of tin ore is transported from southern Myanmar to Thailand each month for transit into China. The Thai authorities' ban is expected to affect the transportation of tin ore from southern Myanmar in June.

Price Trend: Last week, both domestic and international tin prices gave back more than half of the short-term gains driven by Alphamin's suspension of production at the Bisie tin mine. The SHFE tin index found technical support around 275,000 yuan/mt, with total open interest fluctuating and decreasing, but not returning to the lower levels seen before the price surge. The market is sensitive to supply uncertainties and is likely to shift more focus towards demand. Upstream Supply: The resumption of production in Wa State is still in the planning stage, and Alphamin's one-month shutdown will affect 1,500 mt of tin supply. Last week, M23 captured the mining hub of Walikale in North Kivu Province; on the 22nd, the group announced a unilateral ceasefire and redeployment of troops in Walikale, aiming to create conditions for a peaceful resolution, but the uncertainty of local tin mines returning to normal operations remains high. Domestic tin concentrate imports are even tighter, with 18,500 mt (7,138 mt metal content) imported in the first two months, down 12.5% YoY; Myanmar's monthly imports were only 1,300 mt metal content. The top three African countries remain the primary source. In terms of refined tin, LME outperforms SHFE, with net exports turning to 301 mt in the first two months. Under the backdrop of tight raw material supply, it is expected that the operating rate of primary tin smelters will pull back, with a high risk of raw material imbalance. For secondary tin, the recovery of scrap tin recycling is constrained by terminal orders, making it difficult for operations to rebound. Continue to monitor changes in production schedules. Downstream Consumption: Both domestic and international tin markets saw an inflow of visible inventory, with LME tin inventory increasing by 160 mt to 3,760 mt last week, and LME 0-3 month spot discounts at $75/mt. SMM social inventory of tin in China increased by 398 mt to 10,548 mt, with downstream acceptance of high tin prices limited. Entering April, the market will continue to focus on the uncertain risks of US reciprocal tariffs. Global semiconductor sales reached $56.5 billion in January, up 17.9% YoY and down 1.7% MoM. Global semiconductor sales hit a record high of $57.8 billion in November last year, followed by two consecutive months of decline, but still remain at a relatively high level. Outlook: Short-term attention to the tin market is more easily influenced by supply-side stimuli, and the current atmosphere is still dominated by supply. It is expected that 275,000 yuan/mt will provide support for SHFE tin, with mid-to-downstream buyers taking advantage of price dips as needed. Tin prices are expected to mainly oscillate between 275,000-285,000 yuan/mt this week.