SMM April 10 update: This week, the mainstream ex-factory prices of secondary refined lead were at discounts of 75-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, adjusting along with fluctuations in lead prices. Dragged by the consumption off-season, downstream purchasing sentiment was generally weak, with smelters mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach while holding prices firm, and the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continued. Affected by tight scrap battery supply and high raw material costs, losses at secondary lead smelters widened further WoW. As of April 10, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises was -184 yuan/mt, and for small and medium-sized enterprises -388 yuan/mt (excluding tin and antimony by-product revenues). Next week, production ramp-up at resuming smelters and production cuts at smelters facing raw material shortages will coexist, with a tug-of-war between longs and shorts on the supply side. Enterprise losses are expected to remain in the doldrums. Meanwhile, as the consumption off-season continues, weak purchasing sentiment from downstream battery plants will weigh on secondary lead prices. However, scrap battery raw material costs still provide support, and SMM expects secondary lead premiums to move sideways. >> Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

It was learned that as of April 2, in-factory inventory of major delivery brands of primary lead stood at 16,700 mt, up 150 mt WoW. This week, maintenance and resumptions coexisted among primary lead smelters. Supply was relatively ample in east China and south China, while south-west China was slightly tight due to maintenance factors. At the beginning of the week, lead prices were in the doldrums, and downstream enterprises purchased as needed. During the period, as secondary lead prices were relatively high, downstream procurement tilted toward primary lead. However, in the second half of the week, lead prices rose sharply, and procurement by downstream enterprises weakened significantly, leading to some inventory buildup at smelters. In addition, during the Qingming Festival holiday, primary lead enterprises basically maintained normal production, and the risk of lead ingot inventory buildup increased after the holiday.

SMM, March 25: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,495 yuan/mt. After the opening, driven by broad gains across the nonferrous metals complex, prices quickly surged to an intraday high of 16,590 yuan/mt, then fluctuated lower, giving back part of the gains and moving slightly around the daily average line. Near the close, the SHFE lead price center edged higher, fluctuating rangebound within the 16,488-16,542 yuan/mt range, while the tug-of-war between longs and shorts eased. It finally closed at 16,495 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 75 yuan/mt, or 0.46%. Primary lead suppliers held prices firm, and premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly. Coupled with tight circulating supply caused by maintenance at some secondary lead enterprises, this supported lead prices. Downstream buyers mainly purchased as needed. As secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, spot orders showed a stronger preference for primary lead. Overall, spot support remained strong, providing downside support for lead prices, but with more downstream bargaining and a lack of strong upward momentum, prices are expected to remain rangebound in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, March 25: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,895.5/mt. After the opening, prices quickly fell to $1,885.5/mt, and then fluctuate rangebound within the $1,888–1,896.5/mt range, with a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts and relatively cautious market sentiment. After 0:00, prices rose and broke above the previous trading range, hitting a high of $1,901/mt before closing at $1,898.5/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up $0/mt, or 0.0%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,420 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly, and then saw wide swings within the 16,440–16,481 yuan/mt range, with an evident tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Intraday volatility narrowed, with prices gradually stabilizing around 16,455–16,465 yuan/mt, while trading volume also pulled back and market sentiment turned cautious. Late in the session, SHFE lead again broke upward, hitting a high of 16,500 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to close at 16,470 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 50 yuan/mt, or 0.3%. Supply side, primary lead smelters held firm offers, while spot premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai edged up slightly, and quotes for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site changed relatively little. Some secondary lead smelters had maintenance plans, and spot market circulating cargoes were limited. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining. In addition, as secondary lead prices were inverted against primary lead, spot order purchases tilted toward primary lead. According to SMM analysis, SHFE lead prices are likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,895.5/mt. After the opening, prices quickly fell to $1,885.5/mt, then fluctuate rangebound within the $1,888–1,896.5/mt range, with a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts and cautious market sentiment. After 0:00, prices rose further, breaking above the previous trading range and touching a high of $1,901/mt, before finally closing at $1,898.5/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up $0/mt, or 0.0%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,420 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly, then saw wide swings within the 16,440–16,481 yuan/mt range, with an evident tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Intraday volatility narrowed, and prices gradually stabilized around 16,455–16,465 yuan/mt, while trading volume pulled back simultaneously and market sentiment turned cautious. Late in the session, SHFE lead broke upward again, touching a high of 16,500 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to finally close at 16,470 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 50 yuan/mt, or 0.3%. On the macro front: 1. Poll: Trump’s approval rating fell to its lowest level since returning to the White House. 2. US media: The US Department of Justice admitted it lacked evidence in its investigation into Powell. 3. Turkey considered using its $135 billion gold reserves to defend the lira. 4. Israeli media: The US intended to seek a one-month ceasefire to discuss a 15-point agreement with Iran. 5. Goldman Sachs maintained its overweight recommendation on Chinese equities (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks). Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, while suppliers held prices firm on shipments. Quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly in spot premiums, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead plants changed little. Mainstream producing areas quoted premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price, with a few quoting premiums of 100 yuan/mt ex-works. On the secondary lead side, some secondary lead enterprises had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining. In addition, as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order purchases tilted toward primary lead. Inventory: As of March 24, LME lead inventory fell by 725 mt, or 0.26%, to 283,350 mt. As of March 23, SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions pulled back somewhat from previous inventory at high levels. Today’s Lead Price Forecast: Supply side, primary lead smelters held firm offers, and spot premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead smelters changed little. Some secondary lead smelters had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining, and as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order procurement tilted toward primary lead. According to SMM analysis, SHFE lead prices were likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,905/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead consolidated around the daily average line. Entering the European session, LME lead dipped slightly to $1,883/mt, then fluctuated upward. Around midnight, after moving sideways, LME lead futures were dominated by bulls, with the center gradually moving higher to a peak of $1,926/mt, and finally closed at $1,925/mt, up $22/mt, or 1.16%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened higher with a gap at 16,450 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices plunged rapidly, hitting a low of 16,320 yuan/mt before a slight correction. Thereafter, bulls and bears competed, and SHFE lead prices saw wide swings within the 16,355-16,405 yuan/mt range. At the end of the night session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated upward, but due to strong bearish momentum, turned to fluctuate downward and closed at the low of 16,405 yuan/mt. It posted a long upper-shadow bearish candle, up 90 yuan/mt, or 0.55%. On the macro front: 1. Trump: Once the Iran war ends, oil prices will fall rapidly like a rock. 2. Iran's foreign minister denied recent contact with the US special envoy, saying such reports appeared to be only intended to mislead oil traders. 3. Foreign media: The Saudi crown prince suggested Trump continue striking Iran. 4. US Treasury Secretary: There was no intervention in the oil futures market, and oil prices may be "well below" $80 within months. 5. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Ships from parties not involved in the war have already passed through the Strait of Hormuz. 6. Trading in key London Metal Exchange contracts was once suspended for several hours. 7. Li Chenggang: The Chinese and US teams reached preliminary consensus on certain issues. 8. China and the US agreed to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment. 9. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to February, the national economy got off to a strong start and began well Spot fundamentals: Yesterday morning, SHFE lead fell sharply, once dropping below 16,200 yuan/mt in early trading, before recovering part of the losses. Suppliers shipped in line with the market, while some suppliers were reluctant to sell at low prices. Discounts narrowed significantly from last Friday, especially for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site, with quotations in major producing areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. In addition, as losses widened at secondary lead smelters, some enterprises suspended shipments or offered quotes at high premiums. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises actively inquired and purchased, with more purchases in major producing areas. However, as market discounts narrowed or turned into premiums, procurement decreased accordingly, and spot market trading was relatively active. Inventory: As of March 16, LME lead inventory increased by 75 mt, or 0.03%, to 284,575 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions increased slightly again. Lead Price Forecast for Today: After plunging sharply yesterday, SHFE lead recovered some of its losses, while discounts for primary lead spot cargo against last Friday narrowed. As losses widened, secondary lead enterprises quoted at premiums, with some choosing not to make shipments; secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, prompting downstream buyers to favor purchases of primary lead. Overall, support from the spot market and cautious downstream sentiment are in a tug-of-war, making it difficult for lead prices to stage a strong reversal for now, with weak consolidation and sideways movement likely to dominate.

SMM News, March 17: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,905/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated around the daily average line. Entering the European session, LME lead edged down to $1,883/mt, then fluctuated upward. Around midnight, after moving sideways, the futures were dominated by bulls, with the center gradually lifting to a high of $1,926/mt, and finally closing at $1,925/mt, up $22/mt, or 1.16%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened higher with a gap at 16,450 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices plunged rapidly, hitting a low of 16,320 yuan/mt before a slight correction. Thereafter, bulls and bears competed, and SHFE lead posted wide swings within the 16,355-16,405 yuan/mt range. Toward the end of the night session, SHFE lead fluctuated upward, but as bears gained strength, it shifted to a fluctuate downward trend, closing at 16,405 yuan/mt, near the session low. It formed a long upper shadow bearish candle, up 90 yuan/mt, or 0.55%. After SHFE lead fell sharply yesterday, some of the losses were recouped, and discounts for primary lead spot narrowed from last Friday. As losses widened, secondary lead enterprises quoted premiums, with some choosing not to ship. As secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, downstream buyers favored purchasing primary lead. Overall, support on the spot side and cautious downstream sentiment remained in competition, making it difficult for lead prices to stage a strong reversal for now, with weak consolidation and rangebound sideways movement likely to dominate.

SMM June 10: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,977.5/mt, fluctuating rangebound in the Asian session, with a low of $1,973.5/mt. Entering the European session, it rebounded from the low to reach a high of $1,993.5/mt, and closed with a narrow fluctuation range at $1,988/mt, up 0.71%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2507 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,815 yuan/mt, touching a low of 16,790 yuan/mt in the early session. After a rebound due to short covering, it consolidated, reaching a high of 16,905 yuan/mt, and closed at 16,865 yuan/mt, up 0.81%. Recently, lead prices have shown a trend of rebounding from lows. Suppliers have been actively selling, with secondary lead prices in some regions (especially Jiangsu and Zhejiang) inverting against primary lead. Secondary refined lead was quoted at a premium of 50-100 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price ex-works, prompting a small number of downstream enterprises to purchase on dips as needed, with a preference for primary lead delivery sources. As a result, social warehouse inventory declined slightly. In addition, environmental protection inspections were carried out in regions such as Inner Mongolia and Anhui last week, leading some secondary lead enterprises to reduce or suspend production. The short-term reduction in supply will ease the pressure of lead ingot inventory buildup, and lead prices may maintain a fluctuating trend.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Spot Order Market Transactions Remain Sluggish, Lead Prices May Maintain Fluctuating Trend]...SHFE lead continued its fluctuating trend, with suppliers shipping goods according to market conditions. The discounts for some warrant cargo quotations widened compared to last Friday, while the discounts for cargoes self-picked up from production site narrowed. Primary lead quotations in major producing areas were at premiums of 0-125 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price. Additionally, there were more production cuts at secondary lead smelters, and market quotations were scattered...

【Copper】 On Thursday, SHFE copper extended its gains above 81,500 yuan, with the weighted average of the US market hitting a record high, though the most-traded US copper contract has yet to reach new highs. Domestic spot copper rose to 81,440 yuan, with SHFE copper on parity and Guangdong at a premium of 185 yuan. Technically, attention is on the performance of the weighted index of the US market at record levels. Overnight, the US Fed maintained interest rates, downgraded the annual economic growth forecast to 1.7%, emphasized inflation risks, and expressed uncertainty, but still expected two cumulative 50-basis-point interest rate cuts within the year. SHFE copper mainly followed the upward trend, with the upper range expanding to 81,500-82,500 yuan. If there is a pullback, the focus will be on the US market copper. 【Aluminum & Alumina】 Today, SHFE aluminum fluctuated upward, with spot discounts in East China and South China around 40 yuan. This year's inventory buildup for aluminum ingot and billet is similar to last year, with the turning point for aluminum ingot slightly earlier. In the past week, destocking of 28,000 mt was strong, and the market expects robust consumption during the peak season, with attention on the pace of destocking. In the short term, SHFE aluminum continues to test the resistance at 210,000 yuan, oscillating above 205,000 yuan. Alumina prices continued to decline, with domestic spot transactions falling to around 3,100 yuan, and the latest overseas Indonesian transaction price dropping to 409 US dollars. Alumina operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply-demand balance remains loose. The decline in ore prices has led to a lower cost center. Alumina prices will remain under pressure until large-scale production cuts occur. 【Zinc】 Zinc prices pulled back, with downstream buyers restocking at lower levels, improving spot trades. SMM zinc social inventory decreased by 4,900 mt MoM to 131,000 mt. The slower-than-expected destocking in the overseas market and inventory buildup in the domestic market can be seen as the final manifestation of tight mine supply in 2024, which is insufficient to push zinc prices higher. During the traditional peak season, downstream rigid demand supports prices. The EU's 80 billion euro defense financing plan to reduce dependence on the US has somewhat boosted consumer confidence, but internal divisions cast doubt on its actual implementation. After March, domestic smelters turned profitable, and expectations for increased zinc ingot production strengthened. In Q2, additional mine supply will be released, and the news of the US reviewing global key shipping lanes has added to export uncertainties. Real estate remains a drag, infrastructure support is limited, and manufacturing performance is mixed. Zinc should still be treated with a bearish bias. 【Lead】 The spread between futures and spot prices remained at a high of 265 yuan/mt, which is unfavorable for warrant outflows. Some primary lead smelters in Henan are undergoing maintenance, leading to a temporary tight supply of lead ingots. Secondary lead prices increased to collect raw materials, with the price difference between primary metal and scrap maintaining at 75 yuan/mt, providing some support to prices. Some imported crude lead entered the domestic market, mostly directly as raw material for smelters. Downstream buyers mainly purchased through long-term contracts, with limited spot orders, and SMM lead social inventory continued to rise to 74,000 mt. With overseas lead supply, SHFE lead lacks further upward momentum, with 17,880 yuan/mt seen as a strong resistance level. 【Nickel & Stainless Steel】 SHFE nickel fluctuated downward, with active market trading. Supply disruptions related to Indonesia were concentrated, mainly affecting sentiment on the raw material side, and leading to higher high-grade NPI prices and NPI destocking, offsetting the long-term surplus trend. Jinchuan premiums fell to 1,400 yuan, Russian nickel at a discount of 100 yuan, and electrodeposited nickel at a discount of 100 yuan. High-grade NPI prices significantly strengthened, with Indonesian ore still influencing raw material pricing, with the latest quote at 1,015 yuan per mtu. Inventory-wise, NPI inventory dropped by 6,000 mt to 23,000 mt, refined nickel inventory increased by 4,500 mt to 49,000 mt, and stainless steel inventory rose by nearly 10,000 mt to 959,000 mt. Technically, SHFE nickel met resistance near 135,000 yuan, with attention on whether a rebound top structure forms. 【Tin】 SHFE tin recovered from below 280,000 yuan, closing higher after fluctuating. Today, spot tin was 240,200 yuan, still slightly at a discount to the delivery month contract. The market continues to monitor the situation in the DRC, which is currently stalled. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 275,000-290,000 yuan/mt at high levels.