SMM Report, June 5: Benchmark monthly long-term contract prices for China’s tungsten sector were officially released recently. The Ganzhou Tungsten Association unveiled its June 2026 domestic tungsten forecast prices: 55% WO₃ black tungsten concentrate at RMB 505,000 per metric ton, down RMB 195,000/MT month-on-month; ammonium paratungstate (APT) priced at RMB 760,000 per metric ton, a MoM drop of RMB 260,000/MT;

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Primary Aluminum Dropped Sharply, Market Showed Strong Willingness to Follow the Decline] Yesterday, the ADC12 spot market fluctuated downward, with mainstream enterprises generally lowering quotes by 200-300 yuan/mt, and the market sentiment to follow the decline was strong. On one hand, futures pulled back sharply, exerting strong downward pressure on the spot market, and enterprises actively lowered their quotes; on the other hand, downstream consumption remained weak, further undermining market confidence. Currently, although the cost side provides some support for prices, under the influence of insufficient demand and pessimistic market expectations, ADC12 prices still face certain downward pressure in the short term, and the market continues to remain in the doldrums.

[Geopolitical Disruptions Combined with Elevated Inventory Highlight LME Outperforming SHFE in Aluminum Market] Overall, the core pattern of LME outperforming SHFE in the aluminum market is difficult to reverse in the short term. LME strength will support room for SHFE aluminum to catch up after the holiday, but high domestic inventory and weak demand will cap overall gains. Going forward, the focus will be on the pace of aluminum ingot destocking in China and the strength of rigid demand release from downstream resumption of work and production resumptions.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Weak Post-Holiday Demand, Prices Expected to Move Sideways in the Short Term] Yesterday, the ADC12 market saw divergent price adjustments. Some enterprises attempted to slightly raise their quotes, driven by the recovery in futures, but overall upward momentum for increases remained insufficient, with most enterprises opting to hold prices steady and take a wait-and-see approach. Meanwhile, a few enterprises chose to lower prices due to weak post-holiday demand and pressure from previously high quotes. The post-holiday market remained in a tug-of-war between weak demand and cost support, with limited improvement in transactions. ADC12 prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend within a narrow range in the short term, with insufficient upward momentum.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Secondary Aluminum Prices Continued to Fall Before the Holiday, Stocking Demand Significantly Insufficient] On the last day before the holiday, the ADC12 market overall continued to be in the doldrums. Affected by the pullback in primary aluminum prices and sluggish downstream demand, enterprises actively lowered their quotes by small margins, and the mainstream transaction center shifted downward. Meanwhile, as the Labour Day holiday approached, downstream enterprises successively entered production suspension or production cuts mode, stocking demand before the holiday was significantly insufficient, and market trading sentiment turned sluggish. In the short term, ADC12 prices may remain in the doldrums, and after the holiday, attention should be focused on the pace of downstream production resumption and demand recovery.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Easing Costs and Sluggish Demand Keep Aluminum Alloy Prices in the Doldrums] Last Friday, the ADC12 market was generally in the doldrums. As aluminum prices weakened, cost support eased, and some enterprises actively lowered their quoted prices.

US-based industry body The Silver Institute expects total demand to decrease modestly by 2% year-on-year this year to 1.11-billion ounces, given sustained high prices that impact jewellery and silverware demand.

In summary, recent scrap battery prices have stabilized after a decline. With improving consumption of e-bike batteries and a rebound in lead prices, secondary lead smelting profits are nearing breakeven. Additionally, due to the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the customary stockpiling by downstream enterprises is expected to support lead prices. SMM believes that the willingness of secondary lead smelters to resume production may gradually increase. Currently, several idled secondary lead smelters have tentatively scheduled production resumptions for early October.