[Central Bank Sends Easing Signals; Supply-Demand and Geopolitical Games Limit Aluminum Price Upside Room] Our comprehensive assessment shows that the macro front has improved recently, with the marginal constraints of interest rate hike expectations on the nonferrous metals sector continuing to ease. The proportion of liquid aluminum in China has kept rising. China’s central bank will implement accommodative monetary policies, step up counter-cyclical adjustments, and redouble efforts to expand domestic demand to steer the economy toward sustained, more favorable, and broader-based development. The persistent geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East has jointly underpinned aluminum prices, significantly boosting short-term market confidence. However, the ongoing commissioning of long-term aluminum capacity outside China, the recent softness in traditional end-use demand in China, combined with the repeated shifts in expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and the uncertainties triggered by geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, continue to exert certain pressure on the upside room for aluminum prices.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,819.5/mt, touched a session high of $13,883/mt, then pulled back under pressure and dipped to $13,729.5/mt. It recouped some losses near the close and finally settled at $13,803/mt, up 0.03%. Trading volume was 16,800 lots, and open interest increased to 250,200 lots, up 3,988 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bullish additions. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 105,460 yuan/mt, rose to a session high of 105,780 yuan/mt, then drifted lower and dipped to 105,140 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 105,360 yuan/mt, down 0.09%.

This week, ferrous metals drifted lower overall, with iron ore and rebar leading the decline and hitting new stage lows. The core driver of the downturn was a confluence of multiple bearish factors: First, the Politburo meeting ended, and the outcome fell short of market expectations, causing sentiment support to collapse. Second, cost support collapsed in a stepwise manner. The second round of coke price cuts was quickly implemented, and the market widely expects a third round to come. Combined with hot metal output falling to a trough, global iron ore shipments staying high, and port inventories being ample, the decline in raw material prices allowed the negative feedback loop to transmit smoothly. Finally, end-use demand was seasonally sluggish, with high temperatures and rainfall dampening construction. Total inventories of ferrous metals continued to accumulate, spot transactions were sluggish, and the supply-demand imbalance persisted......

[SMM Analysis] Off-season Stainless Steel Prices and Costs Fluctuate Limitedly, Steel Mill Profits Basically Stable This week, stainless steel finished product prices remained stable, while production costs edged up slightly but with limited gains, resulting in basically stable overall smelting profits at steel mills. Based on 304 cold-rolling calculations, this week’s profit margins stood at 2.01% when using current raw materials and 2.15% when using inventory raw materials, indicating that stainless steel mills still retained certain smelting profits. On the nickel raw material side, high-grade NPI prices rose and strengthened this week. Shipment disruptions of Indonesian high-grade NPI, combined with month-end restocking purchases by some stainless steel mills and relatively optimistic market expectations for forward NPI prices, drove the price increase. Although mainstream stainless steel mills currently hold sufficient nickel pig iron raw material inventories and spot purchases remained weak, forward order transactions recovered significantly, pushing prices higher. As of this Friday, the delivered duty-paid price of Indonesia-origin high-grade NPI with 10-12% nickel content in China rose by 4 yuan/nickel unit to 1,136.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap prices remained stable this week, with limited impact from futures consolidation and a slight recovery in NPI. Compared to nickel pig iron, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap became more apparent, providing solid bottom support for prices; expectations of steel mill production resumptions in August also lent positive support. However, narrow profit margins at steel mills and weak end-use demand made cost pass-through difficult, significantly capping the upside room for prices. Overall, in the short term, stainless steel scrap will maintain a consolidating pattern supported by cost advantages and production resumption expectations, with limited overall upside room. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts in the Shanghai area rose by 200 yuan/mt to 10,450 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw materials…

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Cost Advantages Underpin Stainless Steel Scrap Market, End-Use Demand Weakness Restrains Short-Term Upside Room This week, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices in east China were flat, with a quotation range of 10,400-10,500 yuan/mt; in the Foshan area, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices remained stable in tandem, within a price range of 10,300-10,600 yuan/mt. From a raw material cost analysis perspective, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely with stainless steel scrap is about 14,607.48 yuan/mt, while that with high-grade NPI is as high as 14,995.22 yuan/mt, with the two maintaining a stable cost price spread. This week, stainless steel scrap prices remained generally stable. During the week, SS futures showed a consolidation pattern of first declining and then rising, and the fluctuations in futures did not provide clear guidance for the spot market. Stainless steel product spot prices consolidated in tandem, with overall prices basically flat compared to last week. At month-end, stainless steel mills initiated a tender for high-grade NPI procurement, driving NPI prices to rebound slightly, but the extent of the increase was relatively limited, and the upward support from the raw material side was weak, keeping the overall stainless steel scrap market stable. Along with the slight recovery in high-grade NPI prices, the cost advantage of stainless steel scrap relative to it has increased, further highlighting its cost substitution competitiveness and forming solid bottom support for scrap prices. Overall, costs and expectations provided support, but end-use fundamentals continued to suppress the market's upward trend. As some stainless steel mills gradually wrap up previous production cuts and maintenance, the market expects stainless steel production to rebound in August, corresponding rigid demand for stainless steel scrap is expected to increase, combined with the current scrap...

[India] Ship-breaking HMS (80:20) prices in Alang, Gujarat, declined to 351 USD/tonne ex-yard. Persistent rainfall disrupted cutting operations and constrained processed scrap availability, while weaker billet and rebar prices reduced buying interest from secondary steelmakers. Procurement remained largely need-based, but tight supply limited the correction. The market is expected to remain range-bound in the near term.

SMM July 31 Today at 11:30, the futures closing price was 105,660 yuan/mt, up 620 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average spot premium was 260 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices rose 200 yuan/mt MoM. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap rose to 2.48, and the procurement sentiment index fell to 1.98. The price spread between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,523 yuan/mt, up 391 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,440 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices moved higher at the end of the week. Copper scrap suppliers sold into strength, but constrained by the Jiangsu region, the policy ceased to be implemented. Secondary copper rod enterprises suspended production to observe the situation, causing market demand for tax-exclusive copper scrap to decline further, while tax-inclusive supply continued to remain tight. In certain regions, for copper scrap with 13% VAT, the invoice tax rate has risen to 11-12%.

[Scrap Aluminum and Secondary Aluminum Weekly Review: Cost-Driven Price Strengthening, High-Temperature Holiday Drags Demand, ADC12 Gains Constrained] This week, ADC12 market prices first stabilized and then rose. SMM ADC12 prices held steady at 24,000 yuan/mt early in the week, were raised for two consecutive days mid-week driven by costs, and stood at 24,200 yuan/mt as of Thursday, up 200 yuan/mt from last Thursday. The cost side remained the core driver of this week's price increase.

The SEA secondary aluminum market remained mixed this week. Aluminum scrap prices were largely stable, while ADC12 remained under pressure due to weak downstream demand. Buying activity stayed cautious, although UBC scrap held firm on tighter supply and steady recycling demand. Market attention also shifted to the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), with growing focus on carbon reporting, recycled content, and supply chain traceability as compliance requirements continue to evolve.

[Stalemate Between Upstream and Downstream Persists, Metal Transactions Are Weak, and Magnetic Materials Enter High-Temperature Off-Season] Yesterday, NdFeB blank quotes were slightly lowered, primarily because raw material prices drove down NdFeB prices. In terms of transactions, as July drew to a close, regions across China experienced high temperatures, and motor factories and end-users gradually began their high-temperature holidays. The operating rates of motor factories and end-users weakened significantly, reducing demand for rare earth permanent magnets, which ultimately led to persistently sluggish trading activity in the NdFeB market.