The overseas secondary aluminum market continues to exhibit structural divergence. Elevated scrap prices provide strong cost support, but cautious downstream procurement and weak transaction follow-through are dampening demand-side momentum. As a result, prices remain firm while trading activity stays subdued.【SMM Analysis】

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro Front Sees Mixed Sentiments, Aluminum Ingot Inventory Accumulation Caps Price Upside Room] Fundamental seasonal weakening pressure becomes more pronounced. Supply side, domestic and overseas aluminum new projects steadily ramp up production. Demand side, attention should be paid to the pace of downstream enterprise resumption after the holiday. Currently, under the influence of seasonal supply exceeding demand, the market generally expects the post-holiday inventory peak to reach 1.3 million mt, hitting a five-year high, which will be the core factor suppressing prices. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to move sideways in the short term.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Prices Stop Rising and Correct, Supply Shortage Continues to Support Alloy Prices] Aluminum prices stopped rising and corrected, with the SMM A00 aluminum price falling by 140 yuan/mt to 24,000 yuan/mt, while the SMM ADC12 price remained temporarily stable at 23,700 yuan/mt. Although the A00 aluminum price experienced a slight correction, it remained above 24,000 yuan/mt. Most secondary aluminum market quotations held steady in the morning, but in the afternoon, some manufacturers followed the sharp decline in futures, dropping prices by 100-200 yuan/mt. Amid the falling price trend, downstream buyers exhibited a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with only limited restocking for urgent needs, resulting in sluggish transactions. The current secondary aluminum market is influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors: cost support and tight supply provide a floor for prices, but weak downstream demand and fear of high prices exert downward pressure. It is expected that ADC12 prices will show a high-level correction trend in the short term.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Funds Take Profits and Exit, Aluminum Prices Retreat from Highs] Overall, the current fundamentals—with consumption under pressure and inventory continuing to accumulate—are exerting some downward pressure on aluminum prices. However, strong macro policy expectations and geopolitical risks are providing solid support for a rise in aluminum prices. SMM expects aluminum prices to fluctuate at highs in the short term.