Today, futures consolidated on a subdued note, closing at 2,976, down 1.23% from the previous trading session. Spot side, in the morning, most market quotes fell, with prices declining 10-30 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, futures continued to consolidate on a weak note, with some markets following with a drop of 10-20 yuan/mt. Overall, transactions were mediocre to weak. Fundamentals, supply side, currently, most steel mills had comprehensive per-ton steel margins below the break-even line, and mills gradually arranged maintenance on blast furnaces and associated construction steel rolling lines or reduced production loads; EAF steel mills further reduced operating hours. Demand side, futures fell below the 3,000-point level, market confidence was notably weak, with many adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and trading sentiment was mediocre. Meanwhile, due to sustained high temperatures in many areas, the pace of outdoor housing construction was hindered, and end-user rigid procurement demand was weak. Overall, in the short term, the supply-demand dual weakness pattern remained unchanged, and construction material prices might continue to consolidate at lows.

[SMM Daily Comment: Spot Lithium Carbonate Fell Steadily on Aug 3] The SMM spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell steadily today from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened low at 137,500 yuan/mt today, then fluctuated lower and dipped quickly, hitting a low of 135,600 yuan/mt; subsequently, bulls stepped in to push prices to a choppy rebound, and the morning session saw fluctuations around the average price line; near midday, bulls concentrated their strength, prices quickly surged past 140,000 yuan/mt and shot up to 140,800 yuan/mt; in the afternoon, faced with bearish selling pressure and profit-taking, prices consolidated and pulled back, and near the close, moved sideways in the 138,800-139,000 yuan range, finally settling down 1.15% at 138,900 yuan/mt, with open interest decreasing by 3,474 lots. In the spot market, coinciding with the first working day of the month, downstream material plants gradually received long-term contract and customer-supplied shipments. Spot order purchases were cautious, only purchasing as needed when prices were relatively low; upstream lithium chemical plants continued to hold prices firm for spot sales, mainly relying on long-term contracts and additional contract volumes to ensure supply at the beginning of the month. Overall, market inquiries and actual transaction activity decreased.

SMM August 3 news: Futures saw a sharp drop today, and spot aluminum in South China barely held steady. Among the three major consumption areas, only Foshan remained in a destocking cycle. The breakdown of absolute prices to new lows instead prompted holders to generally hold back from selling and be unwilling to make shipments at low levels. However, cash-in needs combined with bearish sentiment exerted dual pressure, and some sellers still opted for shipments at slight discounts, acting as a drag. Mainstream quotations were at discounts of -10 to 0 yuan/mt, and cargo availability increased somewhat. On the demand side, downstream buyers mainly engaged in steady buying at lows, showing no willingness to increase volumes amid the decline. Traders also merely took low-priced cargoes at a steady pace to fulfill orders. While demand provided bottom support, it lacked upward momentum. Both supply and demand sides were weak in momentum, and intraday trading was tepid. Spot transactions were mainly at premiums of 80 to 120 yuan/mt over the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract.

South Korean steelmaker POSCO is preparing an anticircumvention complaint against imports of Malaysian stainless CRC and is working with the Korea Trade Commission to finalize the investigation scope and supporting evidence. The filing could be submitted between late August and early September. The review will focus on products processed in Malaysia using raw materials from origins already subject to South Korean antidumping measures, including China, Indonesia and Taiwan. If circumvention is confirmed, imports arriving after the investigation begins could face retroactive antidumping duties.

SMM August 3 The futures closing price at 11:30 today was 105,830 yuan/mt, up 170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums were 280 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Secondary copper raw material prices rose 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day today. The secondary copper raw material sales sentiment index increased to 2.52, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.01. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,455 yuan/mt, down 1,068 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,630 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, copper prices surged in late trading, transactions in the secondary copper raw material market were very few throughout the day. Under high copper prices, demand for tax-unpaid copper scrap remained unable to trade on a large scale due to policy issues, while tax-paid copper scrap remained the market's "hot commodity." Scrap utilization enterprises indicated that restrictions on "reverse invoicing" are expected to be gradually lifted in the Jiangxi region, and some enterprises have already resumed production.

SMM, August 3: Lead futures prices consolidated on a subdued note, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts continued. Upstream, some secondary lead smelters held prices firm and held back from selling, sticking to their quotes and unwilling to lower them, with extremely poor willingness to sell. Downstream enterprises were cautious in procurement; with reference to the primary lead price ratio, their intended purchase price for secondary refined lead was at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. The price spread between secondary refined lead and primary lead continued to narrow, revealing the price disadvantage of secondary lead. Actual transactions in the market were limited, with most deals remaining at indicative prices. Short-term market trends followed the fluctuations of futures. The supply-demand stalemate was difficult to break quickly, and trading remained sluggish. Today, the SMM average price for secondary refined lead was reported at 15,225 yuan/mt, at a discount of 25 yuan/mt to the SMM #1 lead average price. The supplier selling sentiment was 0.54, and the purchase sentiment for secondary refined lead today was 1.78 (historical data can be accessed by logging into the database).

SMM August 3: In early trading, the center of the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract shifted lower from the previous trading day, but purchasing sentiment in the spot market did not improve significantly. The transaction center was at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to parity against the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract, with some downstream bids noticeably at a discount of 20 yuan/mt. The selling sentiment index in east China today was 3.07, down 0.01 DoD; the buying sentiment index was 2.93, up 0.06 DoD. After the opening, SHFE aluminum futures saw a slight correction. Traders in the central China market had the intention to hold prices firm, but weak purchase willingness from downstream processing enterprises suppressed overall market transactions. Only hedging traders intended to purchase in large quantities at low discounts to widen price spreads for profit. Market quotations edged up, but remained at relatively low levels. The final transaction price range in the central China market was around a discount of 170-190 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 08 contract. The selling sentiment index in the central China market today was 3.20, unchanged DoD; the buying sentiment index was 2.85, up 0.02 DoD. In terms of inventory, aluminum ingot inventory in major consuming areas rose 9,000 mt DoD today, with only Guangdong showing destocking.

This process is requested by Baosteel as there are some changes in export situation compared to the time when the anti-dumping duty is issued. The review is to check whether the reason is acceptable so the anti-dumping duties need to be changed or not. When the review is ongoing, the duty is still active

SMM, August 3: Metal market, as of the midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 0.13%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.4%. SHFE lead fell 1.25%. SHFE zinc rose 1.02%. SHFE tin rose 0.36%. SHFE nickel fell 1.91%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 0.21%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.34%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.02%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.86%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 7.11%. Ferrous metals all declined. Iron ore fell 2.44%, rebar fell 0.86%, HRC fell 0.71%. Stainless steel fell 1.16%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.04%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.37%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:48, LME metals mostly fell. LME copper rose 0.17%, LME aluminum fell 0.3%, LME lead fell 0.16%, LME zinc rose 0.78%. LME tin fell 0.27%. LME nickel fell 1.42%. Precious metals, as of 11:48, COMEX gold rose 0.27%, COMEX silver rose 0.92%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.57%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.48%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 0.52%, while the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.21%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping freight rate futures contract rose 2.94% to 1,801 points. As of 11:48 on August 3, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 100 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 105,815 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while SX-EW copper averaged 105,695 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory ended a three-session decline... Macro Front China: [China's July RatingDog manufacturing PMI recorded 50.9, marking the eighth consecutive month in expansion territory] China’s July RatingDog manufacturing PMI recorded 50.9, down 0.8 percentage points from June, extending its expansion streak to an eighth consecutive month and tying with the longest expansion run in five years. Overall, manufacturing expansion continued in July, but the pace slowed. New orders continued to grow, cost pressure further eased, and new export orders returned to expansion, releasing a positive signal. However, purchasing activity declined somewhat, and the inventory of input goods accumulated earlier by enterprises kept rising, which are risk points to monitor going forward. (RatingDog) [The CSRC and Hong Kong SFC Jointly Announce New Measures to Deepen Pragmatic Cooperation and Close Collaborative Development Between the Two Markets] The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong jointly announced a series of new measures to further deepen pragmatic cooperation and close collaborative development between the two markets. Covering multiple areas including listing and financing, index cooperation, futures products, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), internationalization of financial institutions, green finance, and professional qualification facilitation, the specific measures include: continuing to support eligible domestic enterprises to list and raise funds in Hong Kong; supporting index companies in both markets to strengthen cooperation and launch more indices based on Chinese assets, enhancing the international influence of Chinese indices and assets; deepening cooperation in futures markets and supporting Hong Kong in launching more RMB-denominated and settled futures products; supporting institutions in both markets to launch more ETF products based on the two markets and aligned with China’s modern industrial system, and implementing a fast-track registration mechanism for regular equity ETF products, among others. (Jin10 Data APP) [Hong Kong Exchange Officially Launches 5-Year RMB Government Bond Futures] Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) today (August 3) officially launched the 5-year RMB government bond futures. As the only government bond futures contract product in the offshore market, it aims to meet the growing interest rate risk management and trading needs of overseas investors. The launch of the 5-year government bond futures is an important step in promoting Hong Kong as an offshore RMB hub and risk management center. (CCTV News) [The PBOC's Open Market Operations Resulted in a Net Withdrawal of 562.5 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 63 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations and 300 billion yuan in overnight reverse repo operations today. With 325.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos maturing today, the net withdrawal for the day was 562.5 billion yuan. 》 On August 3, the central parity rate of the yuan in the interbank foreign exchange market was 6.7898 per US dollar. US Dollar: As of 11:48, the US dollar index was down 0.05% at 99.75. According to the CME FedWatch Tool: the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the September meeting is 26.4%, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike stands at 73.6%. For the October meeting, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 19.9%, with a 62.1% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 17.9% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. According to the New York Times, Fed Chairman Warsh is reportedly considering reducing the number of regularly scheduled interest-rate decision meetings of the Federal Reserve, a move that could cause significant shockwaves and would mark the most significant change in the Fed's operations in recent years. Currently, the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to vote on whether to raise, lower, or maintain borrowing costs. According to four people familiar with the matter, Warsh raised the idea of adjusting the meeting frequency at this week's Fed meeting. According to the sources, at this week's meeting, Warsh discussed the legal basis the Fed must adhere to regarding the minimum number of meetings required annually, as well as the timetable for such adjustments. It was said that Warsh asked officials to provide him with their views, rather than holding a full discussion on the meeting schedule at this week's meeting. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: Japan's Ministry of Finance said the intervention was aimed at addressing recent excessive, disorderly movements in the yen. It will not hesitate to conduct further foreign exchange intervention with the United States, and plans to use the Fed's Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) Repo Facility in the future. JPMorgan said that the U.S. Treasury Department's liquidity resources available to support further coordinated currency intervention with Japan are limited, but its firepower could be significantly expanded if officials take more unconventional measures. Strategists including Junya Tanase wrote in a report that as of June, the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund held around €13 billion in euro-denominated assets and $25.5 billion in assets, which pales in comparison to Japan's intervention scale of roughly $35 billion to $60 billion between 2022 and 2026. JPMorgan noted that the Treasury could significantly boost its firepower by converting its holdings of International Monetary Fund Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) into dollars, and by swapping foreign currency assets into dollars. In that scenario, the Treasury could theoretically mobilize up to around $187 billion, and the participation of the Fed could effectively double the scale of any intervention. However, they wrote: "We do not think the Treasury has unlimited capacity to intervene, as the Exchange Stabilization Fund's resources are finite and new funds might require congressional appropriation." (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of Switzerland July CPI m/m, France July manufacturing PMI final, Germany July manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone July manufacturing PMI final, UK July manufacturing PMI final, US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, US July ISM manufacturing PMI, US June construction spending m/m, and other data. Crude oil: As of 11:48, oil prices on both exchanges fell sharply, with WTI down 5.52% and Brent down 4.9%. Oil prices tumbled sharply in early Asian trading on Monday, following Trump’s announcement that the US and Iran would resume negotiations on Monday, significantly raising market expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. (Wall Street CN) The decline in oil prices was driven by two major factors. First, the news of the US-Iran negotiations resuming directly boosted expectations for the restoration of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Second, major OPEC+ members again slightly raised production quotas, further intensifying supply-side pressure. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Telegram on Sunday that negotiations between Iran and Oman are in their final stage, with both sides discussing new shipping routes for the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei added in an interview with Iran’s state television that the relevant negotiations do not concern the opening or closing of the strait. (Wall Street CN) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] Today, ADC12 market quotes consolidated on a subdued note, with SMM ADC12 lowered by 100 yuan/mt. The cost side still offered some support, but the pullback in futures and primary aluminum prices weighed on market sentiment. Meanwhile, end-use demand was lackluster, marked by insufficient orders and weak transactional support. Enterprises generally adjusted prices by following the market, with a weaker willingness to hold prices firm. In the short term, ADC12 prices still face some downward pressure, but with cost support remaining in place, prices are expected to move sideways.