SMM Nickel News, April 7: Macro and market news: (1) Trump: Tuesday was the deadline for reaching a deal (8:00 AM Wednesday Beijing time); Iran's proposal was not good enough; a plan had been drawn up to destroy Iran's bridges and power plants within 4 hours; rather than letting Iran collect strait tolls, the US should collect them instead. (2) To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, today (April 7), the People's Bank of China conducted 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repo operations through fixed-quantity, rate-tendering, and multiple-price winning methods, with a term of 3 months (89 days) and a maturity date of July 5, 2026. Spot market: On April 7, SMM #1 refined nickel prices were flat compared with the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,650 yuan/mt, flat compared with the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from 600-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract surged sharply in the morning session before pulling back, closing at 133,420 yuan/mt in the morning session, down 0.64%. In the short term, Indonesia's policy tightening and cost support have built a solid floor for nickel prices, but high inventory and weak end-use demand capped upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to operate within a core range of 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

According to the central bank’s announcement on its open market outright reverse repo tender, on March 16, 2026, the People’s Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations with a tenor of six months (182 days) through a fixed-quantity, interest-rate tender and multiple-price allotment method.

SMM Nickel News, March 16: Macro and Market News: (1) The financial statistics report for February released by the central bank showed that at month-end February, broad money (M2) balance stood at 349.22 trillion yuan, up 9% YoY; cumulative aggregate social financing for the first two months was 9.6 trillion yuan, 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; new RMB loans in the first two months increased by 5.61 trillion yuan; the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits was 345.72 trillion yuan, up 8.8% YoY; and the month-end RMB deposit balance was 337.94 trillion yuan, up 8.7% YoY. (2) The central bank said in its tender announcement for open-market outright reverse repo operations that on March 16, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations through a fixed-quantity, interest-rate bidding, and multiple-price allocation method, with a tenor of six months (182 days). Spot Market: On March 16, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 2,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,700 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream branded electrodeposited nickel was at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fell sharply intraday and closed the morning session at 135,990 yuan/mt, down 1.83%. Tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, intensifying inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, creating clear pressure on nickel prices. Despite significant macro pressure, the industry-level support logic has not changed, and market concerns over tightening supply of nickel intermediate products remain. Short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.

[Central Bank to Conduct 500 Billion Yuan in Outright Reverse Repo Operations Today] The People's Bank of China announced that it would conduct 500 billion yuan in six-month (182-day) outright reverse repo operations today (March 16) through fixed-quantity, interest-rate tendering and multiple-price bidding. As 600 billion yuan of six-month outright reverse repo operations mature in March, this operation meant the central bank rolled over 100 billion yuan less in six-month outright reverse repo operations for the month.

SMM Nickel News, March 6: Macro and Market Updates: (1) The central bank announced that, to keep liquidity in the banking system ample, on March 6, 2026, the People’s Bank of China will conduct 800 billion yuan outright reverse repo operations via fixed-amount, interest-rate tender with multiple-price allotment. The tenor will be three months (91 days). (2) Amir Heydari, deputy commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, said in an interview on the morning of the 5th local time that Iran had not actually closed the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that military and commercial vessels belonging to the US, Israel, and European countries and their supporters are strictly prohibited from transiting the waters; once discovered, they will be struck. Spot Market: On March 6, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose by 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,750 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for domestically mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel was -400-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) opened lower and then fluctuated upward, closing the morning session at 137,580 yuan/mt, up 0.65%. A rebound in the US dollar index put pressure on nonferrous metal prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to maintain a fluctuate upward trend, and the most-traded SHFE nickel contract may trade in the 135,000-143,000 yuan/mt range.

Nickel prices experienced wild swings WoW as market expectations materialized. From the beginning to mid-week, Indonesia's ESDM Minister revealed that the 2026 nickel ore RKAB production target was set at 260-270 million mt, aligning with previous market expectations. The continuous positive developments boosted market sentiment, driving nickel prices higher in both domestic and overseas markets. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract once again broke through the 140,000 yuan/mt mark, while LME nickel prices returned above $18,000/mt. However, a significant technical pullback occurred on Friday (the last trading day before the Chinese New Year holiday). In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 141,290 yuan/mt this week, up 4,300 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 9,300 yuan/mt WoW, down 650 yuan/mt WoW. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel remained stable within the range of -400-400 yuan/mt. Most end-users and traders had already entered the holiday early, resulting in a relatively quiet spot market with participants mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach. On the macro front, the US Fed Chairman attended a hearing at the Senate Banking Committee this week, indicating an intention to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction while reiterating that the inflation rate remains above the long-term 2% target, suggesting that interest rates may remain unchanged for a longer period. This stance moderated the previous hawkish expectations following Wash's nomination, leading to a pullback in the US dollar index from highs. Geopolitically, on February 12, Trump stated that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, hoping to reach a consensus in "about a month." Domestic macro policies maintained an active tone. On Friday, the People's Bank of China conducted 100 billion yuan in 6-month (182-day) one-off reverse repo operations, aiming to maintain reasonably ample liquidity in the banking system. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was around 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 75,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 1,300 mt WoW. At the current stage, expectations regarding Indonesian policy alone cannot support a sustained rise in nickel prices. The support level around 130,000 yuan/mt for SHFE nickel shows strong resilience due to Indonesia's quota tightening policies, while the resistance above 145,000 yuan/mt remains significant due to high inventory and weak demand. After the Chinese New Year holiday, nickel prices are expected to enter a phase of wide swings at high levels, with the core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract projected at 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt. Key factors to watch include whether the anticipated supply contraction materializes as expected after the holiday, as well as the pace of downstream work resumption and the strength of restocking demand.

SMM Nickel Market Update on February 13: Macro and Market News: (1) The central bank issued a tender announcement for outright reverse repo operations. To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, the People's Bank of China conducted 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations on February 13, 2026, using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple-price award method, with a maturity of 6 months (182 days). (2) US President Trump stated on February 12 local time that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, otherwise the situation will become "very serious." Trump hopes the US and Iran will reach a deal "in about a month." Spot Market: On February 13, the SMM #1 refined nickel price ranged from 134,800 to 145,400 yuan/mt, with an average price of 140,100 yuan/mt, down 5,250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 8,200-9,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 8,850 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -400-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2603) opened lower and moved downward, plunging significantly during the session. By the morning close, it fell 3.83% to 134,950 yuan/mt. There was new progress in the Indonesian nickel ore quota (RKAB) policy that the market has been focusing on. Indonesian officials revealed that the 2026 RKAB production target for nickel ore was set at 260-270 million mt. After two days of digestion, nickel prices saw a significant correction today. Post-holiday factors such as the enforcement of Indonesian quotas, the progress of new smelting approvals, and the recovery of actual demand will be the core variables determining the next trend.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996.5/mt, touched a high of $1,998.5/mt during the Asian session before trending lower; it initially rose then fell during the European session, plunged to a low of $1,970/mt towards the close, and finally settled at $1,984/mt, down 0.53%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,700 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of 16,765 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before weakening, touched a low of 16,670 yuan/mt towards the close, and finally settled at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 0.03%. On the Macro Front: Trump: The US "must" reach a deal with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious". According to AXIOS: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said Trump may reach a good deal with Iran. US media: US Treasury Secretary agreed to have the Senate, rather than the Department of Justice, investigate Powell in exchange for the smooth nomination of the new US Fed chair. China's Ministry of Commerce: China and the US maintained close communication at various levels through the economic and trade consultation mechanism. Ministry of Education: Vocational education will focus on adding new majors in areas such as the low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence. China's newly installed wind and solar power capacity exceeded 430 million kW in 2025, hitting a record high again. Passenger Car Association: Passenger NEV exports in January surged 103.6% YoY, accounting for 49.6% of passenger car exports. PBOC: On February 13, 2026, it will conduct 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations via fixed amount, interest rate tender, and multiple-price award method, with a maturity of 6 months. : As the Chinese New Year atmosphere intensified, some traders have halted operations for the holiday, while those still at work are waiting for the holiday, and few offers were heard in the market. More downstream enterprises were on holiday, basically halting purchases, with individual companies conducting final warehousing of previously arrived lead ingots. The spot market entered a standstill. Inventory: On February 12, LME lead inventory fell 50 mt to 232,900 mt. As of February 12, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions hit a fresh five-month high again. Today's Lead Price Forecast: This week is the last week before the Chinese New Year. Enterprises across the lead industry chain entered the holiday one after another. In addition, the holiday prompted the return of migrant workers and reduced vehicle transport. Trading in the lead spot market also entered a standstill. More suppliers moved lead ingots from smelter plants to social warehouses, and social inventory of lead ingots continued to rise. Furthermore, lead-acid battery companies concentrated on holidays during the Chinese New Year, while some medium and large primary lead and secondary lead smelters maintained shift work. The supply-demand mismatch of lead ingots, coupled with the factor of the SHFE lead 2602 contract delivery after the holiday, is expected to lead to a further increase in social inventory of lead ingots after the holiday, and lead prices are likely to be in the doldrums. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.

SMM data showed that this week (February 2-6, 2026), as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, the most-traded stainless steel contract (SS2603) was hit by both unexpected macro headwinds and pre-holiday risk-off sentiment, trending in the doldrums. By February 6, the contract price pulled back to 13,780 yuan/mt, down 380 yuan/mt (-2.68%) from the previous Friday's closing price of 14,160 yuan/mt. The week saw sharp fluctuations, starting with a "Black Monday" where continuous plunges in gold and silver prices triggered a "sell-off" in the nonferrous sector, with the most-traded contracts for SHFE tin and aluminum alloys hitting limit-down; stainless steel also briefly touched the limit-down board. Although a corrective rebound followed, the rebound momentum was limited under the dominant pre-holiday risk-off sentiment, and the price center significantly shifted lower. From a macro perspective, tightening fears triggered by "hawkish" personnel changes were the core driver of this week's plunge. Overseas, the nomination of "hawkish" candidate Kevin Warsh as the new US Fed chair directly strengthened market expectations for monetary policy tightening. This shock sent the US dollar index and US Treasury yields soaring, putting dollar-priced nonferrous metals under pressure from bears. Additionally, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.6, indicating economic resilience, leading to a sharp revision in market pricing of the interest rate cut path. Domestically, although the January Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, the central bank conducted 800 billion yuan in 3-month outright reverse repo operations to fully maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, showing clear policy support intentions, which cushioned external shocks to some extent. From a fundamental perspective, the spot market entered a "winding-down" phase, with inventory building up as expected. The latest SMM data showed social inventory rose to 868,600 mt this week, up about 15,600 mt from 853,000 mt last week, continuing the inventory buildup trend. In spot transactions, traders gradually left for the holiday, reducing market activity to a freezing point, with only sporadic rigid demand restocking during futures rebounds. Despite the inventory buildup, current inventory remains in a low range, and traders face no panic shipment pressure. Coupled with positive expectations for the post-holiday "Golden March, Silver April" peak season, suppliers maintained relatively stable sentiment, and spot prices, though adjusted with the futures, did not collapse. Cost side and supply side both showed weakness. By February 6, high-grade NPI offers fell to 1,040 yuan/mtu, down 14 yuan from last week, while stainless steel scrap prices also weakened, leading to lower production costs for steel mills. Although some mills began maintenance in February, with planned production expected to drop significantly, this positive factor was offset by a complete halt in downstream demand during the holiday. Under weak supply and demand, cost-side support weakened, but mills' thin profits still formed a bottom-line defense for prices. Overall assessment: This week's market performance was a result of the combined effects of "hawkish macro shocks" and "pre-holiday capital risk aversion." Kevin Warsh's nomination led to a surge in the US dollar, triggering a revaluation of the non-ferrous metals sector, while capital outflows ahead of the Chinese New Year amplified the decline. Although futures saw a significant correction, low inventory of 868,600 mt and expectations for strong post-holiday demand provided a solid cushion. Looking ahead to the Chinese New Year and the initial period after the holiday, the market will enter a de facto shutdown phase, with short-term movements driven by capital sentiment. After the holiday, the focus of market activity will quickly shift to verifying the "extent of inventory buildup" and "demand recovery," paying attention to whether the increase in inventory is manageable and the pace of downstream resumption of operations. It is expected that post-holiday futures will attempt to stabilize and rebound, supported by cost factors and expectations.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro and Fundamentals Present Mixed Signals, Aluminum Prices Expected to Consolidate] Overall, amid earlier macro headwinds, substantial capital took profits and exited the market, leading to a pullback in aluminum prices and a decline in open interest. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate.