[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, next Monday will be the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2603 contract. According to the SMM #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM always quotes against the front-month contract. The contango price spread between futures contracts narrowed slightly, and suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouses weakened somewhat, marginally loosening support for spot premiums. Meanwhile, import losses have narrowed substantially, and there are signs that the import window is about to open. If the window opens, it will bring in cargo from outside China, increasing pressure on spot supply in China and creating potential downward pressure on premiums. On the demand side, downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, providing some support for prices, but intraday, some downstream enterprises were seen to have limited acceptance of spot cargo with high premiums, with procurement turning more cautious. On the supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargo continued to arrive, while social inventory remained high. As SMM always quotes against the front-month contract, the shift in the price spread between futures contracts is expected to result in high premiums against the front-month contract, though this is expected to be corrected on the second trading day. Overall, under the dominance of delivery logic, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at elevated levels next Monday.

[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Opened Sharply Lower in the Night Session and Remained Rangebound at Low Levels, While Trading in the Spot Market Was Relatively Mediocre]

Silver prices fluctuated rangebound today, while spot market premiums still showed signs of continuing to decline, and downstream transactions were still mainly concluded through substantial bargaining. In Shanghai, mainstream quotations from suppliers of domestic standard silver ingots were tentatively quoted at premiums of 600-700 yuan/kg against TD, but due to increased supply, weakening downstream consumption, and substantial bargaining, actual transaction premiums fell to 500 yuan/kg. In Shenzhen, premiums of domestic standard small silver ingots against TD dropped to 400 yuan/kg, while premiums for large ingots declined to 300-400 yuan/kg. As suppliers increased sell-offs and shipped more cargo to the Shanghai market, transaction prices in Shanghai were slightly dragged lower as a result. Some downstream consumers suspended purchases after completing post-holiday restocking, and buyers still largely stayed on the sidelines today, continuing to buy the dip through substantial bargaining. Suppliers gradually ended their efforts to hold prices firm and withhold sales, and successively adjusted prices to make shipments, while spot market transactions remained relatively sluggish.

This week, the cobalt chloride market atmosphere was even more sluggish WoW, and the price stalemate continued. Although top-tier enterprises remained firm in their willingness to hold prices firm, with mainstream quotations still staying above 117,000 yuan/mt and the highest quotations reaching 120,000 yuan/mt, downstream procurement sentiment did not improve WoW and remained relatively cautious. Constrained by weak end-use demand and the relatively ample raw material inventory at material plants, market inquiries decreased noticeably, and actual transactions were mainly sporadic restocking, with the transaction center at 115,000 yuan/mt. Low-priced sales by some small traders were insufficient to move the broader market. Overall, market activity declined, and buyers and sellers fell into a game of tug-of-war. Prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, lacking the momentum to break the stalemate. SMM New Energy Research Team Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875 Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,937.5/mt. During the Asian session, it moved sideways around the intraday moving average. After entering the European session, it rose to a high of $1,945.5/mt, then fluctuated rangebound at high levels before pulling back to a low of $1,932/mt. Before the close, it edged up slightly to recover part of the losses, and finally closed at $1,935.5/mt, down $3/mt, or 0.15%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,605 yuan/mt. After dipping to 16,550 yuan/mt in early trading, it rebounded and consolidated near the intraday moving average, finally closing at 16,595 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous day, or 0.21%. On the macro front: The fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress closed in Beijing. The meeting voted to adopt the resolution on the government work report and reviewed and approved the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, charting the course for economic and social development over the next five years. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that although the February nonfarm payrolls report released last week came in weaker than expected, the mild pullback in initial jobless claims indicated that the scale of corporate layoffs remained limited, with employers still more inclined to retain workers. This eased market concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labour market. After the data release, major US stock indexes maintained their declines, while energy stocks were among the few sectors that rose due to a sharp increase in oil prices. Spot Fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. The center of SHFE lead moved further lower, and suppliers shipped in line with market conditions. In addition, with delivery approaching, some suppliers became less willing to sell, and quotations appeared somewhat firmer, with significantly fewer transactions at large discounts. Among them, ex-factory quotations in major primary lead producing areas were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Meanwhile, circulation of spot cargo in the secondary lead market was limited, and secondary refined lead was quoted ex-factory around parity against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased under long-term contracts, with limited spot order replenishment, while some purchased as needed. Trading in the spot market was subdued on both sides. Inventory: As of March 12, LME lead inventory fell by 375 mt to 284,500 mt; as of March 12, SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions continued its accumulation trend. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Approaching the weekend, operating rates at primary lead smelters in Hunan gradually resumed, though they had not yet returned to full production, and primary lead quotations in Hunan and Guangdong remained relatively firm. As the delivery date of the SHFE lead 2603 contract approached, suppliers were shifting inventory to delivery warehouses one after another, and social inventory of lead ingots continued to become more visible. With more imported lead arriving at ports and China refined lead supply gradually recovering, spot cargo in the spot market was relatively ample. Downstream enterprises had more procurement options, actively negotiated prices, and bought the dip. In the short term, the accumulation trend in social inventory of lead ingots is expected to be difficult to reverse, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Lithium Battery Electrolyte Market Weekly Review: Electrolyte Prices Remained Temporarily Stable This Week (2026.3.9-3.12)] From March 9 to March 12, 2026, electrolyte prices remained temporarily stable. Considering the overall trend in cost-side changes and the supply-demand pattern, electrolyte prices were expected to remain temporarily stable in the short term.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Affected by Macro Disturbances, LME Zinc Maintained Wide Swings] LME zinc opened at $3,316/mt. In early trading, LME zinc fluctuated upward and touched a high of $3,331.50/mt, after which prices fell rapidly. It then rose and recovered the losses, but during European trading hours, as bears reduced open interest, LME zinc quickly dipped to $3,284/mt. In the night session, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, LME zinc gradually recouped the losses and returned to fluctuate above the average price line, finally closing down at $3,314.50/mt, down $1/mt, or 0.03%. Trading volume decreased to 82,887 lots, and open interest increased by 527 lots to 217,000 lots.

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices moved sideways, with the center edging slightly lower. At the start of the week (March 9), prices dropped slightly, then fluctuated upward over the following two days, before turning lower again on Thursday (March 12). The weekly average price center of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate shifted lower WoW. Futures moved wildly, with prices of the most-traded contract posting wide swings between 142,000 yuan/mt and 167,300 yuan/mt. Market transactions were marked by a stalemate of "upstream reluctance to sell, downstream caution." Upstream lithium chemical plants generally showed weak willingness to sell spot orders, with a sentiment of holding back sales and holding prices firm throughout the week, and only a few enterprises made limited shipments when prices surged. Downstream material plants maintained a strategy of buying the dip. When futures prices quickly fell to relatively low levels, purchase willingness among some enterprises increased somewhat; however, after prices rose, they quickly turned cautious again, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, inquiry activity was moderate, but actual transactions were slightly sluggish. Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Upstream lithium chemical plants' reluctance to sell provided some support to prices, but downstream purchase willingness remained weak, lacking sustained demand boost. Against a backdrop of cooling futures market sentiment and declining open interest, prices lacked momentum to rise, while downside was constrained by costs and support from reluctance to sell. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.

SMM Nickel News, March 13: Macro and market news: (1) On the 12th, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the central bank, chaired a symposium with economic and financial experts. Pan Gongsheng said that in the next stage, the People’s Bank of China would build a scientific and prudent monetary policy framework, continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, and step up counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustments. (2) In the first statement since taking office on March 12, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said that all US military bases in the Middle East should be closed immediately, or they would come under attack. Mojtaba Khamenei said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed. Spot market: On March 13, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,650 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China’s mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) once climbed above 140,000 yuan/mt in early trading, then pulled back sharply, and closed the morning session at 138,030 yuan/mt, down 0.1%. Recently, the US dollar has continued to strengthen, weighing on nickel prices. In the short term, the price of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt range.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Center of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Moved Lower, Trading Was Slightly Sluggish Amid Structural Divergence in End-Use Demand]