Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,000/mt and swung wildly during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it first declined then rose, dipping to a low of $1,990.5/mt before bears reduced positions. LME lead rallied toward the close, touching a high of $2,022/mt and ultimately settling at $2,019/mt, up 0.9%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,560 yuan/mt. It initially fell to a low of 16,505 yuan/mt before rebounding with fluctuations, touching a high of 16,595 yuan/mt toward the close and ultimately settling at 16,570 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. On the macro front: ECB meeting minutes showed that several members were not opposed to a rate hike. Zimbabwe announced that 14 minerals including lithium and nickel were designated as "critical minerals," with mandatory state equity participation. The US April core PCE price index rose further to 3.3% YoY, the highest level since November 2023, in line with market expectations. China's Ministry of Commerce stated that export control measures against Japan were entirely justified, reasonable, and lawful. The NDRC convened a video conference to arrange and deploy nationwide energy supply assurance work for the summer peak season. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the EU's plan to impose additional tariffs on imported steel, stating that negotiations with the EU were underway and a win-win outcome is expected. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the progress of China-US tariff negotiations, stating that the economic and trade teams of both sides will agree on specific arrangements and push for implementation as soon as possible. : Circulating supplies in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market were limited, with few suppliers offering quotations. The macro atmosphere was weak, with non-ferrous metals generally in negative territory, and SHFE lead also reversed course and pulled back. Some suppliers narrowed their quoted discounts (against the most-traded SHFE lead contract) for shipments. Primary lead from major producing regions was quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. Secondary lead smelters increasingly held back from selling at low prices, with some adopting a wait-and-see stance and suspending quotations while others held prices firm for shipments. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis. Wait-and-see sentiment among downstream enterprises was strong. Some enterprises intended to purchase on dips as needed, with inquiries increasing relatively. Some rigid demand was diverted to lower-priced secondary lead sources, and spot market transactions were moderate. In terms of inventory: on May 28, LME lead inventory surged by 29,700 mt (all from Kaohsiung warehouses) to 314,000 mt. As of May 28, total SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions decreased by 1,700 mt compared with May 24. Lead Price Forecast for Today: This week, some primary lead smelters in Henan and Hunan were under maintenance, tightening regional lead ingot supply. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises picked up goods in the first half of the week, contributing to a declining trend in lead ingot social warehouse inventory. Recently, secondary lead smelters in east China have gradually resumed production, and the regional supply gap of secondary lead has been progressively repaired. Secondary lead production is expected to shift to an upward trend in June. Meanwhile, consumption in the lead-acid battery market has been weak, with producers showing limited rigid demand for lead ingots. In particular, the spread between lead futures and spot prices widened to 200 yuan/mt during the week, prompting some suppliers to transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouses. Next week, we need to pay more attention to the pressure on lead prices from inventory buildup risks brought by the resumption of production at smelters as the new month begins. Data source disclaimer: Apart from publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 29: Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,000/mt and saw wild swings during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it first declined then rebounded, dipping to a low of $1,990.5/mt before bears reduced their positions. LME lead rallied toward the close, touching a high of $2,022/mt and ultimately settling at $2,019/mt, up 0.9%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,560 yuan/mt, initially falling to a low of 16,505 yuan/mt before rebounding in volatile trading, touching a high of 16,595 yuan/mt toward the close and ultimately settling at 16,570 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. This week, some primary lead smelters in Henan and Hunan were under maintenance, leading to a regional tightening of lead ingot supply. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises picked up goods in the first half of the week, contributing to a declining trend in lead ingot inventory at social warehouses. Recently, secondary lead smelters in east China have been gradually resuming production, and the regional supply gap for secondary lead has been progressively narrowing. Secondary lead production is expected to turn to an upward trend in June. However, consumption in the lead-acid battery market remained weak, and producers had limited rigid demand for lead ingots. In particular, the spread between futures and spot prices for lead widened to 200 yuan/mt during the week, which also prompted some suppliers to move inventory and ship to delivery warehouses. Next week, we need to pay more attention to the pressure on lead prices from the inventory buildup risk driven by the resumption of production at smelters as the new month begins. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information was derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. It is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,508/mt, dipped to $13,454.5/mt early in the session, then the price center gradually shifted upward, reaching $13,620/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $13,610/mt, down 0.33%, with trading volume at 17,000 lots and open interest at 273,000 lots, an increase of 143 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,000 yuan/mt, touched a low of 103,620 yuan/mt right after the opening, then the price center edged up with small fluctuations and reached a high of 104,250 yuan/mt, finally moving sideways to close at 104,100 yuan/mt, up 0.06%, with trading volume at 34,000 lots and open interest at 162,000 lots, an increase of 1,224 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions.

Indonesian state-owned steel giant PT Krakatau Steel (Persero) Tbk (IDX: KRAS, hereinafter referred to as "Krakatau") released its 2025 consolidated financial statements on March 31, 2026. On the surface, the company recorded a net profit of 339.6 million USD (approximately 5.68 trillion IDR), its best performance since 2019. However, unpacking the core steel business reveals that the steel segment's operating loss in 2025 actually widened from 40.79 million USD in 2024 to 102.5 million USD.

SMM, April 10: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,943/mt. During the Asian session, prices dipped briefly before oscillating higher to touch $1,948/mt. Entering the European session, lead prices continued to weaken, hitting a low of $1,921/mt, before rebounding slightly toward the close, ultimately settling at $1,925.5/mt, down $22/mt or 1.13%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,710 yuan/mt. Early in the session, prices moved sideways within the 16,710-16,745 yuan/mt range, touching a high of 16,745 yuan/mt, before coming under pressure and weakening to a low of 16,675 yuan/mt. After 23:00, prices rebounded slightly but lacked upward momentum, ultimately closing at 16,705 yuan/mt, forming a bearish candlestick, down 80 yuan/mt or 0.48%. Supply side, social inventory of lead ingots across five major regions in China decreased slightly. Some secondary lead enterprises accelerated resumption of production after the holiday, with capacity gradually being released. Meanwhile, some smelters cut production slightly due to raw material shortages of scrap batteries, presenting a mixed supply picture. Demand side, the market was dominated by just-in-time procurement, with a few participants restocking on dips, while most others primarily fulfilled long-term contracts, and the spot order market remained sluggish. Resistance on SHFE lead became increasingly evident, and lead prices were expected to maintain a range-bound consolidation trend going forward.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,943/mt. Prices dipped briefly during the Asian session before rising in a volatile manner, touching a high of $1,948/mt. Entering the European session, lead prices continued to weaken, hitting a low of $1,921/mt. Prices rebounded slightly toward the end of the session, ultimately closing at $1,925.5/mt, down $22/mt, a decline of 1.13%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,710 yuan/mt. Early in the session, prices moved sideways within the 16,710-16,745 yuan/mt range, touching a high of 16,745 yuan/mt. Prices then came under pressure and weakened, hitting a low of 16,675 yuan/mt. After 23:00, prices rebounded slightly but lacked upward momentum, ultimately closing at 16,705 yuan/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down 80 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.48%. On the macro front: 1. Trump warned Iran not to charge tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Putin announced a 32-hour ceasefire for Orthodox Easter, and Ukraine followed suit. 3. The Israeli PM ordered direct negotiations with Lebanon. 4. Sources said Iran would not engage in peace talks with the US until a ceasefire was achieved in Lebanon. 5. US media: The US government was expected to extend Russian oil sanctions waivers this week, potentially paving the way for Iranian oil waivers. 6. Yemen's Houthi forces threatened to tighten Red Sea passage over the Lebanon attack issue. 7. He Lifeng met with Ray Dalio, founder of US investment company Bridgewater. 8. Four government departments held a symposium with enterprises in the power and ESS battery industry. Spot fundamentals: Macro sentiment shifted, non-ferrous metals pulled back broadly, and SHFE lead also declined in a volatile manner. Suppliers became less willing to make shipments, and quoted discounts narrowed compared to the previous day. Additionally, the price spread for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site widened, especially in South China where quoted discounts expanded further. Mainstream production areas were quoted at premiums of -50 to +25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters made shipments following the market trend. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of -50 to 0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises only made just-in-time procurement, with a few purchasing on dips, while others mainly took delivery under long-term contracts. The spot order market was sluggish. Inventory side, as of April 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 250 mt to 278,775 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions pulled back slightly. Lead price forecast for today: Supply side, social inventory of lead ingots across five regions in China decreased slightly. Some secondary lead enterprises accelerated resumption of production after the holiday, with capacity gradually being released. Meanwhile, some smelters cut production slightly due to raw material shortages of scrap batteries, presenting a mixed picture on the supply side. Demand side, the market was dominated by just-in-time procurement, with a few entities restocking on dips, while the rest mainly fulfilled long-term contracts. The spot order market saw sluggish trading activity. SHFE lead faced increasing resistance from above, and lead prices were expected to maintain a range-bound consolidation trend going forward.

[Silicon Metal Prices Remained Stagnant at Low Levels]: The silicon metal market remained stagnant with a weak tone this week, with price centers for some specifications shifting lower. As of April 9, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 8,900-9,100 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW; #441 silicon was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW; #421 silicon was at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW; and #3303 silicon was at 10,100-10,300 yuan/mt, flat WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded silicon metal contract moved sideways around 8,200-8,400 yuan/mt over the past week, as the silicon metal market was under pressure with narrow price fluctuations.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,930.5/mt. During the Asian session, prices briefly fluctuated upward before pulling back under pressure, dipping to around $1,924.5/mt, then rebounded slightly before turning to fluctuate downward again; during the European session, lead prices fluctuated higher, touching an intraday high of $1,948.5/mt before dropping sharply, and in the late session lead prices gradually recovered to repair the losses, ultimately closing at $1,939/mt, up $4.5/mt, a gain of 0.23%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,715 yuan/mt, surged quickly at the start of the session, then pulled back under pressure, moved sideways briefly in the 16,730-16,760 yuan/mt range before trending higher, touching a high of 16,785 yuan/mt, dipped slightly near the close, and ultimately settled at 16,755 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 25 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.15%. On the macro front: 1. Trump agreed to suspend bombing and strikes on Iran for two weeks. 2. Trump: Iran's 10-point proposal is a viable plan that can be used for negotiations. 3. Iranian media: The situation on Kharg Island has been brought under control. 4. Survey: OPEC oil production in March saw the largest decline in decades. 5. PBOC increased gold holdings for the 17th consecutive month. 6. The National Services Industry Conference is about to convene, with measures to expand and improve the services sector set to be rolled out. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead pulled back relatively after surging higher. Returning from the holiday, suppliers were mostly active in shipments, with some lowering quoted premiums, especially for cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelter production sites. Mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of -25~+25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters quoted in line with the market, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of -50~0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. However, circulating spot cargoes in the market were ample, and coupled with elevated lead prices, downstream enterprises had strong wait-and-see sentiment, with minimal restocking after the holiday. Inventory side, as of April 7, LME lead inventory decreased by 225 mt to 281,425 mt; SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory rebounded slightly. Lead price forecast for today: Supply side, China's five-region lead ingot social inventory saw slight inventory buildup due to the Qingming Festival holiday; secondary lead enterprises accelerated resumption of production after the holiday with capacity continuing to release, and combined with imported lead inflows, circulating spot cargoes in the market were ample. Demand side, suppressed by elevated lead prices, downstream enterprises had strong wait-and-see sentiment, with subdued willingness to restock after the holiday. Resistance above SHFE lead is prominent, and lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.

According to statistics, China’s total Pr-Nd oxide production exceeded 9,000 mt in March 2026, up about 6% MoM. This growth was mainly driven by the resumption of production at some separation plants and an increase in the operating rate of scrap recycling enterprises compared with February. However, based on currently available information, as some raw ore separation enterprises plan to suspend production, Pr-Nd oxide production in April is expected to decline by about 2% MoM.

[SHFE Aluminum Night Session Closed Higher, with Geopolitics and Fundamentals Jointly Supporting Aluminum Prices] Overall, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained the core factor affecting the global aluminum market. A series of production cuts and damage incidents at Middle Eastern aluminum plants is expected to provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices in and outside China, together with support from expectations of the gradual release of peak-season demand in China. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.