[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Polysilicon Prices Remained Slightly Weak, While Module Prices Were Overtly Stable but Softened in Practice] Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 39.5-47.5 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index stood at 43.64 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 40-43 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices still appeared slightly weak over the weekend, with reports of some transactions concluded at low prices. Bearish sentiment among upstream and downstream enterprises persisted, and prices were expected to remain weak.

As of March 17, the operating rate of 50 electric-furnace steel mills nationwide mainly producing construction materials was 38.64%, up 3.26% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 39.87%, up 10.53% WoW; and daily average production of construction materials was 88,800 mt, up 23,500 mt WoW.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Module Prices Have Softened Somewhat, While Polysilicon Prices Remain Temporarily Stable] Recently, transaction prices for modules in China have softened somewhat. As demand outside China declines and domestic projects are at the point of being about to start, module enterprises have shown differing attitudes in their quotations. Some enterprises have begun offering concessions in advance to take orders, and distributors have also recently started shipments at low prices, thereby leading to a decline in the market transaction price center. At present, quoted prices for distributed Topcon183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are 0.752 Yuan/W, 0.767 Yuan/W, and 0.77 Yuan/W, respectively, while quoted prices for centralized Topcon182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are 0.727 Yuan/W and 0747 Yuan/W, respectively.

March 13 News: Northern ports: South African high-grade ore, 32.5-35.4 yuan/mtu, prices up WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate, 38.9-39.4 yuan/mtu, prices up WoW from last Friday; Gabon ore, 44.3-44.9 yuan/mtu, prices up WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps, 44.9-45.4 yuan/mtu, prices up WoW from last Friday. South China ports: South African high-grade ore, 33-33.5 yuan/mtu, prices flat WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate, 35.9-36.4 yuan/mtu, prices up WoW from last Friday; Gabon ore, 42-42.5 yuan/mtu, prices flat WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps, 43.4-43.9 yuan/mtu, prices flat WoW from last Friday.

[Operating Rates Continued to Rise This Week, but Order Demand Had Not Fully Started] The rise in operating rates this week was mainly driven by enterprises gradually resuming operations and production. On the order side, orders at top-tier enterprises generally remained stable, but overall industry demand had not yet fully recovered. Affected by the relatively late Chinese New Year break, current end-use demand in rubber, desulfurization, and other sectors still had not fully started, while performance in the ceramics sector was also relatively weak, and it would still take time for demand to see a substantive improvement......

This week, China’s domestic manganese-based battery materials market has shown a differentiated operation trend. The price of battery-grade manganese tetroxide has slightly declined, the price of electrolytic manganese dioxide has slightly increased, and lithium manganate has maintained a weak balance of supply and demand.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,940.5/mt. It held up well during the Asian session and touched a high of $1,949/mt. After entering the European session, it fluctuated downward and fell to a low of $1,932.5/mt, then edged up slightly to recover part of the losses, finally closing at $1,938.5/mt, down $6.5/mt, a decline of 0.33%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,645 yuan/mt. After falling at the beginning of the session to a low of 16,600 yuan/mt, it rebounded to a high of 16,665 yuan/mt, then weakened slightly and finally closed at 16,655 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous day, an increase of 0.03%. US core inflation in February unexpectedly slowed, offering slight relief to price pressures before the outbreak of the Iran war. However, as the US and Israel jointly struck Iran and the Strait of Hormuz was closed, international oil prices surged sharply, pushing up the costs of petroleum, gasoline, and fertilizers. The market generally believed that inflation would rebound in March. After the data release, the probability that the US Fed would keep interest rates unchanged next week was as high as 99.4%, while inflation concerns triggered by the war were further delaying the market's expectations for interest rate cuts within the year. MIIT: The "Industrial Data Foundation Action" was officially launched, focusing on breaking through bottlenecks in the "collection," "aggregation," and "application" of industrial data. The action will carry out pilot efforts in building high-quality industry datasets for AI empowerment, with the goal of fostering a number of industry data cooperation consortiums by the end of 2026, creating trusted interconnection platforms for data in key industries, and establishing four major resource banks including industry data and technological research. Spot Fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 80~0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, and its center moved lower. In addition, as some suppliers transferred cargo to delivery warehouses, circulating supply decreased slightly, and some suppliers intended to narrow their quoted discounts. Mainstream producing areas quoted ex-factory prices at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Meanwhile, supply in the secondary lead market was limited, with little circulating cargo available. Smelters held prices firm on shipments, and secondary refined lead was quoted ex-factory around parity against the SMM #1 lead average price. In addition, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, with some intending to purchase on dips. Enquiry sentiment improved slightly, but spot order market transactions had yet to show significant improvement. In terms of inventory, as of March 11, LME lead inventory stood at 284,875 mt, unchanged again from the previous day; as of March 9, SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions continued to accumulate. Lead Price Forecast for Today: As the delivery of the front-month contract approaches, the spot-futures price spread for refined lead spot has made delivery warehouse shipments profitable in the short term. Coupled with increased supply from the resumption of production at some primary lead smelters in Hunan and the arrival of imported lead cargoes, expectations that social inventory of refined lead will continue to build up are expected to become more evident. Secondary refined lead, upstream enterprises showed low willingness to make shipments. Due to firm scrap battery prices, smelters maintained offers with hold prices firm and reluctance to sell, while the downstream preference for just-in-time procurement of primary lead has not yet improved. Although both supply and demand in the lead market increased in early March, supply growth may precede the recovery in consumption. In the short term, lead market fundamentals remained weak, and lead prices were expected to continue a fluctuating trend in the doldrums. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice

Nickel Ore "Tight Supply-Demand Balance Drives Premiums; Government Clarifies RKAB Mechanism " Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.104/dmt, a month-on-month decrease of 3.21%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $34, $38, and $38.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $65.2–$72.2/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $24–$26/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a fundamental perspective, as of March 6, Sulawesi and Halmahera are in a volatile transition at the tail end of the rainy season, where intermittent heavy rainfall continues to obstruct mining logistics. Morowali is currently overcast with high humidity (94%), and while immediate rain is light, a heavy precipitation system is expected around March 13 with up to 48mm of rain; Konawe remains cloudy with daily thundershowers. Halmahera also faces a high-precipitation weekend with a 65% chance of thunderstorms on March 7-8. Despite BMKG's forecast of an early dry season in April, saturated soil and local wind gusts currently prevent these regions from reaching full mining and loading capacity. Under the dual pressure of scarce tradable supply and RKAB uncertainty, some NPI smelters have been forced to ramp up procurement to secure raw materials. Hydrometallurgical Ore While spot supply of limonite is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project has forced related production lines to operate at low utilization, causing temporary demand weakness. However, due to concerns over RKAB approvals, stockpiling for new projects, and growing demand from outer islands, limonite prices are expected to shadow saprolite prices and remain high. On the policy side, Director General Tri Winarno of the ESDM clarified on March 3, 2026, that any RKAB increases will be based on individual company assessments of capacity and compliance rather than a universal percentage hike, with the approval process slated for the second half of 2026. The government emphasized that this is a routine regulatory procedure to optimize resources, not a reactive measure against the previously set annual production cap of 260–270 million tons. Nickel Pig Iron " Strong Cost Support Drives High-Grade NPI Prices Upward " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price rose by RMB 21.1 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1092.6 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index increased by USD 2.22 per nickel unit to an average of USD 138.54 per nickel unit. This rally is primarily fueled by a "scarcity of high-nickel-content units" and firm offers from smelters facing intense cost pressure from rising ore prices. While downstream stainless steel mills remain reluctant to accept these peak prices due to limited gains in finished products, the overall market remains supported by tight tradable supply and the post-holiday resumption of production. The surge in nickel ore costs has significantly squeezed smelter margins, with many producers now facing contracting profits as NPI price growth lags behind feedstock inflation. Looking ahead, it is expected that NPI prices to maintain their upward momentum as raw material costs remain "easy to rise but hard to fall" and seasonal demand begins to recover.

[Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Plants Gradually Resumed Production; Operating Rates Continued to Rise This Week] This week, the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloy declined compared with before the holiday, mainly because there were still relatively few enterprises that had resumed production, and most alloy plants were expected to arrange production resumptions after the Lantern Festival......

[SMM coking coal and coke daily brief] In terms of supply, the average profit per mt of coke is around the break-even point, with normal production. However, due to downstream wait-and-see sentiment and some steel mills controlling arrivals, the shipment pace of some coke enterprises has slowed down, leading to a continuous accumulation of coke inventory. On the demand side, the resumption of production at steel mills is slow, and their own coke inventories are at reasonable levels. Additionally, during the Chinese New Year, the accumulation of finished product inventory led to continuously compressed steel mill profits, resulting in mainly purchasing coke as needed. In summary, the willingness of steel mills to seek profit from the raw material end is increasing, and recently, cost support for coke may weaken. Therefore, the current market is characterized by a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and in the short term, the coke market is expected to be in the doldrums, with expectations of price reductions.