》[Live] Research and Analysis on Macroeconomy, Electric Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends SMM News on May 22: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally declined, with only SHFE lead rising, up 0.48%. SHFE nickel fell 0.7%, SHFE tin dropped 0.48%, and the rest of the metals saw slight declines, with alumina falling 2.01%. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract fell 1.65%, the main polysilicon contract rose 1.09%, the main silicon metal contract increased 0.25%, and the main European container shipping contract surged 2.73%. The ferrous metals series generally declined, with iron ore falling 1.24%, HRC dropping 0.75%, and rebar decreasing 0.42%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 4.01%, and coke dropped 1.81%. In the overseas market, as of 15:03, overseas market base metals generally rose, with only LME copper falling 0.04%. LME lead increased 0.76%, LME tin rose 0.52%, and LME aluminum gained 0.22%, with the rest of the metals seeing slight fluctuations in their increases. In precious metals, as of 15:03, COMEX gold rose 1.04%, and COMEX silver increased 0.35%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.1%, and SHFE silver fell 0.37%. According to Jordan Roy-Byrne, author of CMT, MFTA, and the book "Gold and Silver: The Greatest Bull Market Has Begun," gold is in the early stages of a strong, long-term bull market, with its price potentially rising to $4,500, while silver prices may also exceed $100. Market conditions as of 15:03 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspects: [Ministry of Commerce: Online Sales of Digital Products Increased by 8.4% from January to April, with Smart Robots and Smart Home Systems Rising by 87.6% and 16%] The head of the E-commerce Department of the Ministry of Commerce introduced the development of China's e-commerce from January to April 2025. Digital consumption growth accelerated, with online sales of digital products increasing by 8.4% according to e-commerce big data monitoring, among which smart robots and smart home systems rose by 87.6% and 16%, respectively. Products under the trade-in policy grew rapidly, with online sales of 15 categories of home appliances and digital products increasing by 11.5%, among which three expanded categories of digital products, including mobile phones, rose by 18.5%. Service consumption led the growth, driven by factors such as policy efforts, supply optimization, and holiday economy, with key monitored online service consumption increasing by 12.1%, among which online entertainment and online tourism rose by 31.9% and 25.4%, respectively. [The People's Bank of China Net Injected 36 Billion Yuan in the Open Market] The People's Bank of China conducted 142.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 106.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations matured today, a net injection of 36 billion yuan was achieved. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market on May 23 was 7.1919 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:03, the US dollar index fell by 0.3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 17 was 227,000, compared to market expectations of 230,000 and 229,000 the previous week. The number of initial jobless claims in the US fell by 2,000 last week to a four-week low, indicating that the job market remains healthy despite uncertainties brought about by trade policies. However, the number of continuing claims rose, making it increasingly difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs. The US manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 52.3 in May. The flash services PMI stood at 52.3, hitting a two-month high. The index for new orders from enterprises rose to 52.4 from 51.7 in April, mainly driven by the manufacturing sector. The index measuring the prices paid by enterprises for inputs rose to 63.4 from 58.5 in April, reaching its highest level since November 2022. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the Fed would not purchase bonds in primary auctions, as hard data indicated that the economy was performing quite well and had not yet shown clear signs of tariff impacts. Waller still believed that tariffs would lead to one-time price increases, and said that if tariffs were lowered, the Fed was expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. (Wenhua Comprehensive) Macro: Today, data such as the revised quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate for Germany in Q1, the revised year-on-year non-seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate for Germany in Q1, the month-on-month seasonally adjusted retail sales growth rate for the UK in April, the month-on-month seasonally adjusted core retail sales growth rate for the UK in April, the revised month-on-month building permits growth rate for the US in April, the revised annualized total building permits for the US in April, the month-on-month retail sales growth rate for Canada in March, the month-on-month core retail sales growth rate for Canada in March, and the annualized total of seasonally adjusted new home sales for the US in April will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a keynote speech at a seminar on monetary policy implementation; FOMC voters for 2025, St. Louis Fed President Musalem and Kansas City Fed President Schmid, will participate in a fireside chat in Northwest Arkansas hosted by the St. Louis Fed to discuss the economy and monetary policy. Crude oil: As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US crude oil down by 0.82% and Brent crude oil down by 0.79%. OPEC's production policy moves remain the core variable driving oil price trends. At this stage, OPEC member countries are discussing whether to agree to another round of oversized production increases at the June 1 meeting, which could be the third consecutive month that the organization adds extra oil production to the market. Delegates stated that a 411,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) increase in daily production in July was one of the options under discussion, but no final agreement had been reached. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia indicated that an oil price of $60 per barrel was sustainable. If production is further increased, it could signal a clearer intention by OPEC to compete for market share. At a recent meeting, Saudi Arabia, as the leader of OPEC+, warned non-compliant member countries such as Kazakhstan and Iraq that if they did not adhere to their quotas, Saudi Arabia might further increase production. Despite Kazakhstan's commitment to make some compensatory measures, the country has not taken substantive steps to restrict international oil companies operating within its borders, and its exports remain near record highs. If major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia push for a larger-scale production increase plan, it could trigger a new round of downward pressure on the crude oil market. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► Concerns about the continuous decline in LME copper prices prompt import traders to slightly increase shipments [SMM Secondary Copper Daily Review] ► Aluminum prices rebound slightly, and the secondary aluminum market operates steadily [ADC12 Price Daily Review] ► [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] On May 23, nickel salt prices remained stable ► [SMM MHP Daily Review] On May 23, Indonesian MHP prices slightly declined ► Silver prices consolidate, with downstream cautious and trading remaining light [SMM Daily Review]
May 23, 2025 15:28》[Live] Research and Analysis on Macroeconomy, Electric Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends SMM, May 23: Metal Market: Overnight, most of the domestic base metals market fell, with SHFE tin down 0.59%, SHFE copper down 0.12%, SHFE nickel down 0.48%, SHFE lead down 0.51%, SHFE aluminum down 0.17%, and SHFE zinc up 0.22%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.08%. Overnight, the ferrous metals series showed mixed performance, with iron ore slightly down, stainless steel slightly up 0.04%, rebar flat at 3,059 yuan/mt, and HRC slightly down. In terms of coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 1.2%, and coke rose 0.35%. Overnight, LME base metals nearly fell across the board, with LME copper down 0.15%, LME aluminum down 0.61%, LME lead down 0.51%, LME zinc up 0.43%, LME tin down 1.29%, and LME nickel down 0.72%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.56%, and COMEX silver fell 1.39%. Overnight, SHFE gold fell 0.71%, and SHFE silver fell 0.52%. As of 8:22 a.m. on May 23, overnight closing prices 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [Latest Statements from the Ministry of Science and Technology, the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission Signal Important Developments] At 3 p.m. on the 22nd, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, where Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant officials introduced the situation regarding science and technology finance policies and answered questions from reporters. Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that the "Science and Technology Board" in the bond market will primarily support top-tier equity investment institutions with strong rankings and rich investment experience in issuing bonds. Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, stated that the Ministry of Science and Technology will fully leverage its role as the leading department, further refine the task assignments for constructing the science and technology finance system, and promote the implementation of policy measures. Guo Wuping, spokesperson for the National Financial Regulatory Administration and Director of the Policy Research Department, stated that the initial pilot scale for the long-term investment reform pilot of insurance funds is 50 billion yuan, the second pilot is 112 billion yuan, and the third pilot of 60 billion yuan will be approved soon, bringing the total scale to 222 billion yuan. Yan Bojin, Chief Risk Officer of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and Director of the Issuance Supervision Department, stated that in response to the characteristics of technology enterprises, the CSRC has streamlined and optimized listing conditions, continuously enhancing the technological content of newly listed companies. The number of listed companies in strategic emerging industries on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges has approached 2,000, with a market capitalization ratio of nearly 40%. 》Click to view details [PBOC: Conducted RMB 500 billion MLF Operation on May 23 with a One-Year Tenor] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, it would conduct a Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation of RMB 500 billion on May 23, 2025 (Friday), with a one-year tenor, through fixed-quantity, interest-rate tendering, and multiple-price bidding. US Dollar Aspect: The overnight US dollar index rose by 0.33% to close at 99.94. The US House of Representatives passed President Trump's massive tax and spending cut bill. Bond vigilantes continued to monitor the global bond market, with the US House narrowly passing President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax cut bill by a single vote. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, this would increase federal government debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade. Currently, US government debt stands at $36.2 trillion. US corporate activity rebounded in May, but the US's across-the-board tariffs have made imported goods more expensive for businesses and consumers. The S&P Global US Composite PMI, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, rose to 52.1 in May from 50.6 in April. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector. The number of initial jobless claims in the US fell last week, and the labour market remained stable, providing some support to the US dollar. The US weekly report also showed that the number of unemployed Americans was close to the level at the end of 2021. In the week ending May 17, the number of Americans filing initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000. Economists surveyed had expected 230,000 claims. Other Currencies Aspect: The Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in May from 50.4 in April, suggesting that economic activity may be stalling again. Bert Colijn, an economist at ING, pointed out that the impact of trade conflicts on the economy is more reflected in uncertainty than in direct shocks. The data only showed a slight decline in new overseas orders, while manufacturing output even increased. The services sector was the main reason for this economic slowdown, having previously been the main driver of Eurozone economic growth. Colijn stated that the Eurozone's economic activity still faces downside risks in the short term, as trade conflicts may further escalate. (Huitong Finance) Data Aspect: Today, data such as the UK's May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Japan's April National CPI Year-on-Year Rate, Japan's April National Core CPI Year-on-Year Rate, Germany's Q1 Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly GDP Growth Rate Revised Value, Germany's Q1 Unadjusted Quarterly GDP Year-on-Year Growth Rate Revised Value, the UK's April Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Retail Sales Growth Rate, the UK's April Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Core Retail Sales Growth Rate, the US's April Monthly Building Permits Growth Rate Revised Value, the US's April Annualized Total Building Permits Revised Value, Canada's March Monthly Retail Sales Growth Rate, Canada's March Monthly Core Retail Sales Growth Rate, and the US's April Annualized Total Seasonally Adjusted New Home Sales will be released. In addition, it is noteworthy that: FOMC permanent voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John C. Williams, delivered a keynote speech at the Monetary Policy Implementation Seminar; FOMC voting members for 2025, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Alberto G. Musalem, and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Esther L. George, participated in a fireside chat event in Northwest Arkansas hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to discuss the economy and monetary policy. Crude Oil: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose slightly, with WTI down 1.23% and Brent down 1.36%. The market is paying attention to reports that OPEC is discussing increasing production in July, which has sparked concerns that global supply growth may outpace demand growth. It is reported that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, forming the OPEC+ alliance, are discussing whether to significantly increase production again at their meeting on June 1. Delegates attending the meeting said that increasing production by 411,000 barrels per day in July is one of the options under discussion, but no final agreement has been reached. Data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil and refined product inventories last week, causing oil prices to fall during the trading session. The EIA stated that US crude oil inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels in the week ending May 16. Analysts surveyed had previously expected inventories to decrease by 1.3 million barrels. (Webstock Inc.)
May 23, 2025 08:41》[Live] Research and Analysis on Macroeconomy, Electric Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends SMM News on May 22: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, overseas base metals generally declined, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE nickel rising together. SHFE aluminum rose by 0.2%, and SHFE nickel rose by 0.03%. SHFE lead led the losses with a decline of 1.21%, while SHFE tin fell by 0.87%. The main alumina contract rose by 1.01%, recording four consecutive gains. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 1.67%, the main polysilicon contract rose by 1.14%, the main silicon metal contract fell by 0.19%, and the main European container shipping contract fell by 0.95%. The ferrous metals series showed mixed performance. Iron ore led the gains with a rise of 0.14%, stainless steel rose by 0.04%, and HRC rose by 0.09%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 0.85%, and coke fell by 1.66%. In the overseas market, as of 15:02, only LME aluminum rose, up by 0.4%. The rest of the metals recorded varying degrees of decline, with LME lead falling by 0.91% and LME tin falling by 0.62%. The declines in other metals fluctuated slightly. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:02, COMEX gold rose by 0.49%, and COMEX silver rose by 0.12%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 1.22%, recording five consecutive gains, and SHFE silver rose by 1.06%. Market conditions as of 15:02 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [State Administration for Market Regulation Seeks Public Comments on Renewal of Old Residential Elevators] According to today's official website news from the State Administration for Market Regulation, in order to thoroughly implement the relevant decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, systematically promote the use of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support the renewal of old residential elevators, and ensure the safety of residents using elevators, the "Notice on Further Improving the Renewal of Old Residential Elevators (Draft for Comments)" has been drafted and is now open for public comments. It mentions that local market regulatory authorities should urge elevator manufacturing units to earnestly fulfill their production responsibilities and provide elevator products with high quality, reasonable prices, and excellent after-sales service for the renewal of old residential elevators. The safety performance indicators of the drive units, control systems, door systems, suspension devices, and deflector sheaves selected by the manufacturing units for the renewed elevators must not be lower than those of the original elevators in use, ensuring sufficient safety margins. [Total Installed Power Generation Capacity Nearly 3.5 Billion kW in the First Four Months of This Year] Statistics released by the National Energy Administration show that as of the end of April, the total installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.49 billion kW, up 15.9% YoY. Among them, the installed power generation capacity for solar energy was 990 million kW, up 47.7% YoY; the installed capacity for wind power was 540 million kW, up 18.2% YoY. From January to April this year, the total investment in power supply projects by major power generation enterprises nationwide reached 193.3 billion yuan, up 1.6% YoY; the total investment in power grid projects reached 140.8 billion yuan, up 14.6% YoY. [Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau: Supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges] Zhou Xiaoquan, Executive Deputy Director of the Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau, stated at the "2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum" that Shanghai is further strengthening the functions of its financial markets, supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges, accelerating the construction of a center for RMB financial asset allocation and risk management, and better serving national strategies and safeguarding national security. First, it will continue to deepen the opening up of financial markets and enhance their internationalization. It will deepen the interconnection and interoperability of financial markets and accelerate the launch of international-oriented financial products. Second, it will continue to improve the layout of the derivatives system and expand the breadth and depth of services to the real economy. It will support the further enrichment of commodity and financial futures products, empowering the development of new quality productive forces with a more comprehensive product system. Third, it will enhance the ability to prevent and resolve financial risks and safeguard national strategic security. It will leverage the functions of the futures market to help real enterprises better manage risks and safeguard the security of China's industry and supply chains. It will support financial markets in seizing opportunities in digitalization, intelligence, and green development, enhancing their capabilities for independent and controllable system operations and secure maintenance. (Caijing) [SHFE: Accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy and LNG] Tian Xiangyang, Chairman of SHFE, stated at the 2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum that SHFE will establish a first-class product system that meets the needs of new quality productive forces, accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy, LNG, offset printing paper, and corrugated base paper. It will create a first-class institutional mechanism that combines international standards with Chinese characteristics, steadily promoting portfolio margining, launching new trading instructions, and deepening the market's functions. The People's Bank of China conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 64.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 90 billion yuan was achieved. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on May 22 was 7.1903 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:02, the US dollar index fell by 0.01% to 99.6. Increased market concerns over the growing US debt, coupled with weak demand for 20-year US Treasury bonds, highlighted the market's low appetite for US assets. US House Speaker Johnson stated that a vote on a massive tax cut and spending bill could take place as early as Wednesday evening. The US Treasury Department sold $16 billion worth of 20-year bonds on Wednesday, but demand was weak. Investors are concerned that as Congress continues to debate the tax cut bill, the US debt burden will continue to grow. Later this week, several US Fed officials will deliver speeches that may provide further clues about the economy and the central bank's policy path. The market is currently pricing in at least a 50 basis point interest rate cut this year, with the first cut expected in October. Macro Aspects: Today, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for France in May, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for Germany in May, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in May, the Germany May IFO Business Climate Index, the preliminary SPGI Services PMI for the UK in May, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for the UK in May, the CBI Industrial Trends Orders in the UK in May, the CFIB Business Barometer in Canada in May, the initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 17, the continued jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 10, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for the US in May, and the annualized total of existing home sales in the US in April, among other data, will be released. Additionally, it is worth noting that Thomas Barkin, the 2027 FOMC voter and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, will attend an event titled "Fed Listens." The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference, where Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and relevant officials from the National Administration of Financial Regulation and the China Securities Regulatory Commission will introduce the situation regarding science and technology finance policies and answer questions from reporters. The European Central Bank will release the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting. Crude Oil Aspects: As of 15:02, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US oil down 1.61% and Brent oil down 1.63%. Kazakhstan continues to overproduce, and OPEC+ may adopt a more aggressive production increase strategy to enforce discipline. Kazakhstan has repeatedly exceeded its OPEC+ production quota, with its oil output further increasing by 2% in May to reach 1.86 million barrels per day, far exceeding its quota of 1.486 million barrels per day. This country, which has significantly overproduced, is becoming a headache for cooperation within OPEC+, undermining the credibility of OPEC+'s compensatory production cut agreement. OPEC+ may still consider a more aggressive production increase strategy on June 1 to warn member countries within the organization to strengthen production cut discipline, thereby putting greater supply pressure on the oil market. As Saudi Arabia shifts towards increasing production and demand slows down, the risk of inventory buildup in the oil market is gradually intensifying. According to the IEA's latest monthly report, it is expected that the increase in global crude oil supply in 2025 will far exceed the increase in demand, which is also the mainstream view of the vast majority of research institutions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) significantly raised its forecast for global supply growth in 2025 by 380,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.6 million bpd, primarily due to Saudi Arabia's shift from adhering to production cuts to accelerating production increases. The IEA also sharply lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 from 1.03 million bpd to 730,000 bpd, and further reduced its projection for global crude oil demand growth in 2026 to 690,000 bpd, citing a global economic slowdown leading to a slowdown in oil product consumption. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 from 1.45 million bpd to 1.3 million bpd. While the organization remains more optimistic from a seller's perspective, it has to admit that the demand outlook is deteriorating. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► [SMM MHP Daily Review] May 22: Indonesian MHP prices slightly decline ► [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] May 22: Nickel salt prices remain stable
May 22, 2025 15:22》[Live] Research and Analysis on Macroeconomy, Electric Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends SMM, May 22: Metal Market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally fell. SHFE tin dropped 0.67%, SHFE zinc fell 0.6%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.27%, and SHFE nickel increased slightly. SHFE lead fell 0.83%, and SHFE copper dropped 0.14%. In addition, alumina rose 1.48%. Lithium carbonate increased 0.56%, silicon metal fell 0.25%, and polysilicon dropped 0.55%. The ferrous metals series mostly fell, with iron ore increasing slightly and HRC rising 0.22%. Stainless steel and rebar fell slightly, with declines both within 0.1%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 1.19%, and coke dropped 1.09%. In overseas metal markets, as of 11:42 a.m., LME metals generally fell. LME copper rose 0.18%, LME aluminum increased 0.59%, LME zinc and LME nickel fell slightly, LME tin dropped 0.32%, and LME lead fell 0.43%. In precious metals, as of 11:42 a.m., COMEX gold rose 0.81%, and COMEX silver increased 0.4%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.72%, and SHFE silver increased 1.4%. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European Containerized Freight Index fell 3.55%, closing at 2148.1 points. As of 11:42 a.m. on May 22, midday futures market movements for some metals: 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 22 Spot and Fundamentals Aluminum: Inventory: According to SMM's domestic aluminum ingot inventory data, as of May 22, domestic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 557,000 mt, a destocking of 28,000 mt from Monday. In the short term, the lower arrival of aluminum in east China is conducive to the rise in premiums and discounts. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in demand... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic: [SAMR Publicly Solicits Opinions on the Renewal of Old Residential Elevators] According to today's official website news of the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), in order to thoroughly implement the relevant decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, orderly promote the use of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support the renewal of old residential elevators, and ensure the safety of residents using elevators, the SAMR has drafted the "Notice on Further Improving the Renewal of Old Residential Elevators (Draft for Public Comments)" and is now publicly soliciting opinions from society. It mentions that local market regulation departments should urge elevator manufacturing units to earnestly fulfill their production responsibilities and provide elevator products with high quality, reasonable prices, and excellent after-sales service for the renewal of old residential elevators. The safety performance indicators of drive units, control systems, door systems, suspension devices, and deflector sheaves selected by manufacturing units for the renewed elevators must not be lower than those of the original elevators in use, ensuring sufficient safety margins. [China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached nearly 3.5 billion kW in the first four months of this year] According to statistics released by the National Energy Administration, as of the month-end of April, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.49 billion kW, up 15.9% YoY. Among this, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 990 million kW, up 47.7% YoY, and the installed capacity of wind power was 540 million kW, up 18.2% YoY. From January to April this year, China's major power generation enterprises completed investments of 193.3 billion yuan in power supply projects, up 1.6% YoY, and investments of 140.8 billion yuan in power grid projects, up 14.6% YoY. [Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau: Supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges] Zhou Xiaoquan, Executive Deputy Director of the Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau, stated at the "2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum" that Shanghai is further strengthening the functions of its financial markets, supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges, accelerating the construction of a center for the allocation and risk management of RMB financial assets, and better serving national strategies and safeguarding national security. First, it will continue to deepen the opening up of financial markets and enhance their internationalization. It will deepen the interconnection and interoperability of financial markets and accelerate the launch of international-oriented financial products. Second, it will continue to improve the layout of the derivatives system and expand the breadth and depth of services to the real economy. It will support the further enrichment of commodity and financial futures products, empowering the development of new quality productive forces with a more comprehensive product system. Third, it will enhance the ability to prevent and resolve financial risks and safeguard national strategic security. It will leverage the functions of the futures market to help real enterprises better manage risks and safeguard the security of China's industry and supply chains. It will support financial markets in seizing opportunities in digitalization, intelligence, and green development, enhancing their capabilities for autonomous control, secure operation, and maintenance. (Caijing) [SHFE: Accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy and LNG] Tian Xiangyang, Chairman of SHFE, stated at the 2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum that SHFE will improve a first-class product system tailored to the needs of new quality productive forces, accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy, LNG, offset printing paper, and corrugated base paper. It will establish a first-class institutional mechanism that combines international standards with Chinese characteristics, steadily advancing the implementation of portfolio margins, introducing new trading instructions, and deepening the market's functions. The People's Bank of China conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 64.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 90 billion yuan was achieved. ► The central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 7.1903 RMB per US dollar on May 22 US dollar: The US dollar index continued its downward trend from the previous three trading sessions, remaining in the doldrums. As of 11:42, the US dollar index fell by 0.1% to 99.51. Mounting concerns over the US's ever-increasing debt, coupled with weak demand for 20-year US Treasury bonds, underscore the market's low appetite for US assets. US House Speaker Johnson stated that a vote on a massive tax cut and spending bill could take place as early as Wednesday evening. The US Treasury Department sold $16 billion in 20-year bonds on Wednesday, but demand was sluggish. Investors are worried that as Congress continues to debate the tax cut bill, the US's debt burden will continue to grow. Later this week, several US Fed officials are scheduled to speak, potentially offering further clues about the economic outlook and the central bank's policy path. The market is currently pricing in at least a 50 basis point interest rate cut this year, with the first cut expected in October. In other currency news: Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy Board Member Asahi Noguchi said that the BOJ should not preset a terminal interest rate during the process of raising interest rates; instead, it should take time to assess the impact of each rate hike on the economy, carefully review the associated risks, and then consider the next rate increase. In his view, there is no need to make significant adjustments to the existing central bank's tapering plan. (Caijing) On the macro front: Today, the following data will be released: flash France May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, flash Germany May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, flash Eurozone May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Germany May IFO Business Climate Index, flash UK May S&P Global Services PMI, flash UK May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, UK May CBI Industrial Trends Orders, Canada May CFIB Business Barometer, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 17, US continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 10, flash US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and US existing home sales annualized total for April. In addition, it is worth noting that: Thomas Barkin, the 2027 FOMC voter and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, will attend an event titled "Fed Listens"; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference, where Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and relevant officials from the National Financial Regulatory Administration and the China Securities Regulatory Commission will introduce the relevant situation of science and technology finance policies and answer questions from reporters; and the European Central Bank (ECB) will publish the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting. In the crude oil market: As of 11:42, crude oil futures fluctuated rangebound. US crude oil was flat at $61.57 per barrel, while Brent crude oil fell by 0.05%. Oil prices came under pressure due to unexpected increases in US crude oil and fuel inventories, raising demand concerns. Additionally, the market remained cautious, keeping an eye on the resumed negotiations between Iran and the US. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude oil and fuel inventories rose unexpectedly last week, as crude oil imports hit a six-week high and gasoline and distillate demand declined. In the week ending May 16, US crude oil inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventory rose by 816,000 barrels to 225.5 million barrels. Distillate inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 104.1 million barrels. Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, said, "Although the increase in US inventory has raised concerns, some investors expect that the summer driving season will arrive after the Memorial Day weekend, which is expected to destock inventory and limit further downside room for oil prices." (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: ► Suppliers' sentiment to sell off inventory is evident, with the premium center continuing to move lower [SMM Shanghai spot copper] ► Both inventory and copper prices are declining, with suppliers refusing to budge on prices while selling [SMM South China spot copper] ► The aftermath of the trade war lingers, with China's secondary copper import structure accelerating its reconfiguration [SMM Analysis] ► Destocking in east China exceeds expectations, with suppliers showing strong willingness to refuse to budge on prices [SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review] ► [SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices changed relatively little on May 22, with the 20-year US Treasury auction being the worst in five years Other metal spot midday reviews will be updated later. Please refresh to view~
May 22, 2025 11:58[SMM Announcement] SMM Adds New Price Points for Waste Lead-Acid Batteries in Jiangxi Region: Dear Users, Greetings! The secondary lead capacity in Jiangxi region, after experiencing a low point, is now in a phase of recovery and growth. Currently, the annual scrap processing capacity in this region exceeds 1 million mt, accounting for approximately 6.8% of the national total. Additionally, due to its proximity to Anhui province, a major secondary lead production area, enterprises across the lead industry chain have shown significant interest. To help market participants better grasp the market trends of waste lead-acid battery recycling, provide references for enterprise pricing and settlement, and reduce transaction risks and costs, SMM, after thorough market research and analysis, has decided to add three types of waste lead-acid battery prices for the Jiangxi region: waste battery (Jiangxi), waste starter lead-acid battery (black shell) (Jiangxi), and waste automotive lead-acid battery (white shell) (Jiangxi). These new price points will officially take effect on April 28, 2025.
Apr 23, 2025 09:31【Live: Decoding Macro Economy, Forecasting Copper Price Trends and Trading Strategies, Exploring the Green Transformation Path of the Copper Industry Under the New Energy Wave】 ►76 Years of Striving and Progress, Learning from the Past to Build a Strong Nation: 76 Years of Development Achievements of China's Copper Industry ►Unpredictable Global Macro Economy, Outlook on Commodity Allocation ►Current Status and Trends of New Energy Vehicles ►Future Development Trends of the Global Copper Industry ►2025 Copper Price Trends and Outlook ►Development of Global Copper Smelting Processes and Digitalization Direction ►Current Status and High-Quality Development Trends of China's Copper Processing Industry ►Trading Strategies for the Current Landscape of China's Copper Industry
Apr 23, 2025 09:02SMM News on March 31, 2025: Dear users, with the development of the aluminum industry, the alumina market is undergoing a series of changes. To adapt to these changes and further reduce transaction risks and costs in different segments of the alumina industry, SMM has continuously improved and deepened its research on alumina. After a period of market research and analysis, SMM plans to introduce the SMM Alumina Regional Index Price Point starting from April 7, 2025. Additionally, "SMM Alumina" will be renamed to "SMM Alumina Regional Index." SMM Price Assessment Methodology General Rules: Shanghai Metals Market (hereinafter referred to as SMM) is a completely independent third-party service organization that does not participate in any substantive transactions. Instead, it maintains close communication with buyers and sellers as a market observer or organizer, providing relevant services to the market. SMM continuously formulates, reviews, and revises its methodology through communication with industry professionals, adopting the most common product specifications, trade terms, and conditions in the industry, and equally valuing transactions that meet the standard specifications. SMM reserves the right to exclude any price information deemed unreliable or unrepresentative from its price assessments. SMM publishes daily metal spot prices (or indices, including the Chinese market, markets outside China, and global markets), commonly referred to as SMM prices. SMM has established corresponding methodologies for the SMM prices it publishes (which will be available for reference on SMM's official website www.smm.cn). These methodologies specify the methods and procedures for the generation and publication of SMM prices, which are strictly followed in the production and release of SMM prices. To align with the actual conditions of the spot market, SMM will make necessary revisions to the SMM price assessment methodology and announce them on the SMM official website before formal implementation. For any questions or suggestions regarding SMM prices and their methodology, please contact SMM customer service (contact information can be found on SMM's official website www.smm.cn). This document specifies the pricing mechanism for the SMM Alumina Regional Index Price. The purpose of establishing this standard by SMM is to create a transparent and verifiable SMM price-setting mechanism. Formation of the SMM Alumina Regional Index Price: Definition: The SMM Alumina Regional Index Price is an indicative price formed and published by SMM according to this methodology, which can be used as a reference for alumina settlement by the alumina industry chain (alumina refineries, traders, and aluminum smelters). This price reflects the most likely widely transacted guidance price for each full business day. The price is based on the actual transactions and indicative quotes of alumina on that day by the alumina industry chain (alumina refineries, traders, and aluminum smelters), and is calculated through a model with different weights assigned to each price submitter. Brief Introduction to the Formation Method: The SMM Alumina Regional Index Price reflects the most representative alumina price on the day the index is published. The index is calculated as a weighted average of the most likely transaction prices provided by enterprises at various stages of the alumina industry chain in different regions of China. This document, in accordance with IOSCO standards, clarifies the method for the calculation model of the SMM Alumina Index Price, the collection and processing of transaction sample data, and establishes an accurate, transparent, and verifiable mechanism for the reporting of the alumina index price. Method of Price Collection: SMM will, in accordance with the price submitter agreement, have price analysts regularly collect relevant data on battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices from the price collection contacts of price submitters via phone, QQ, WeChat, fax, and email. All instant messaging content, email communication, and any face-to-face communication records will be archived; details of phone communications will be summarized and entered into a database. The price data must be typical, repeatable transactions between non-affiliated market participants (financially and legally completely independent). SMM price analysts must adhere to the code of business ethics when reporting to their supervisors any communication content from market participants that is coerced or threatened, or any inducement offers that attempt to influence the assessment results. The price data provided by price submitters to SMM should include at least the following content. SMM price analysts should encourage price submitters to submit as many relevant details as possible, not just the minimum required: Alumina product standard: Alumina must meet the requirements for "alumina (AL2O3)" as specified in GB/T 24487-2022. Quotation unit: yuan/mt. Delivery location and method: Mainstream domestic trading locations. Buyer self-pickup, with transportation by truck or train. Payment method: Bank wire transfer, same-day settlement (based on the most mainstream settlement method in the market as surveyed by SMM, other payment methods are standardized to this standard). Derivation of the Price Index and Outlier Handling: The SMM Alumina Regional Index Price is derived by weighting the standardized data and the weights of each enterprise after standardizing the collected qualified data. The initial weights of each enterprise are calculated based on the enterprise's participation in alumina production equivalent. SMM regularly or irregularly reviews the weights of enterprises and the industry chain, adjusting or maintaining the weights based on changes in market supply and demand structure and after consulting with price submitters and the market. After collecting all prices each day, SMM analyzes the daily price collection and index results, retaining the right to adjust weights. The adjusted weights are then weighted with the data collected that day to obtain the final index for the day. The regressed weights will be used as the initial weights for the next business day. For enterprises whose quotes deviate significantly over the long term, in addition to the above-mentioned weight reduction measures, SMM will investigate to determine if there is any misleading behavior in the SMM Alumina Regional Index Price quotes. Once verified, the enterprise will be disqualified as a price submitter. Evaluation (Calculation) of the Published Index: Between 10:45 and 11:00 each trading day, the price derived from the complete collection, standardization, and weighted calculation is published in the form of an index. Price Publication: SMM will form the SMM Alumina Regional Index Price according to the following standards and regulations and publish it on the SMM official website www.smm.cn. The publication time is between 11:00 and 11:15 each business morning (excluding Chinese legal holidays and weekends). The deadline for price collection, which is the 15 minutes between 10:45 and the publication time at 11:00, is used to verify data and evaluate the final published alumina index price. The publication time may also be affected by various emergencies and force majeure factors, such as power outages and natural disasters. If this occurs, SMM will make every effort to inform the market of the delayed publication time as early as possible. Pricing Unit and Presentation: Price (Product) Standard: Alumina must meet the requirements for "alumina (AL2O3)" as specified in GB/T 24487-2022. Payment Method: Bank wire transfer, same-day settlement. Delivery Locations: Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Guangxi, Guizhou. Delivery Method: Buyer self-pickup. Pricing Unit: yuan/mt. Presentation: Presented in index form (retaining two decimal places), including tax (currently including 13% VAT). Online Update Time: Each trading day from 11:00 to 11:15. We welcome more relevant enterprises in the industry chain to participate and support SMM in better serving alumina-related enterprises. For any questions, please feel free to contact Mingxin Guo at guomingxin@smm.cn; Xiaolei Liu at frankliu@smm.cn; Shaoxue Yu at yushaoxue@smm.cn; Cong Wang at wangcong@smm.cn. Shanghai Metals Market Aluminum Department
Mar 31, 2025 18:491 Current Status of Integrated NEV Chassis Market / AICE 2025 Global Penetration Rate Accelerates In 2023, the global penetration rate of integrated chassis in NEVs reached 18%, with the Chinese market leading (25%), followed by Europe (12%) and North America (9%) (data source: GGII). In Q1 2024, the sales share of NEV models equipped with integrated chassis in China exceeded 30%, with BYD, Tesla, and NIO accounting for 70% of the market share. It is expected that by 2025, the global penetration rate will reach 35%, with a market size exceeding $80 billion (McKinsey report). Chery's Model Performance in the Market Chery launched the all-aluminum pure electric platform “@LIFE,” which uses lightweight aluminum auto body and integrated chassis design to enhance body rigidity and driving range. This platform has been applied to the Ant series models (such as the large Ant SUV), integrating the battery pack with the chassis structure, lowering the center, and optimizing space utilization. By using integrated die-casting technology to consolidate chassis components, it reduces welding points and the number of parts, improving production efficiency and body consistency, but the application scale still lags behind companies like Tesla. Chery focuses on the cost-performance route, applying integrated chassis technology mainly to mid-end NEV models (such as the Ant series) with a price range of 150,000-200,000 yuan, offering a price advantage compared to high-end models from Tesla and BYD. The all-aluminum body reduces weight by 30%, and with the integration of the battery and chassis (CTP technology), the driving range is increased to over 500km, making it competitive in the same price segment. To this end, at the [Aluminum Die-Casting Industry Development Forum] held on April 16, 2025, during the AICE Aluminum Industry Expo, many industry experts will share their insights on the transformation points and technical challenges of integrated NEV chassis. 2 Guest Introduction / AICE 2025 Rong Xiao, Chief Engineer of Die-Casting Technology at Chery New Energy Vehicle R&D Center, Distinguished Young Expert of the Foundry Branch of the Chinese Society of Mechanical Engineers, and a doctoral student at the School of Materials Science and Engineering, Jilin University. He is dedicated to promoting extreme cost reduction and lean innovation in the casting industry, having led die-casting process development at several Fortune 500 component companies and first-tier vehicle manufacturers. He was responsible for the domestic first 5-core ultra-complex structure project for the 10th generation Accord cylinder head, the domestic first lightweight body die-casting project for GAC Aion LX, the world’s first project featuring an integrated front cabin and rear floor assembly for XPeng G6, the world’s first overall chassis one-piece die-casting project for Chery, and the globally pioneering dual-shot molding technology and "zero inventory" model product island. Transformation Points 1. Structural Integration By integrating the battery, motor, suspension, and other modules through integrated design, it reduces the number of parts and connection points, optimizing space layout. It enhances chassis rigidity and safety while reducing assembly complexity, adapting to the trends of lightweight and intelligent design. 2. Material Lightweighting Using high-strength aluminum alloys and carbon fiber composites, it reduces chassis weight to improve driving range. It promotes material innovation and process adaptation, balancing the need for lightweight and structural strength. 3. Manufacturing Process Innovation Introducing integrated die-casting technology (such as Tesla's large-scale die-casting) to replace traditional stamping and welding processes, shortening the production cycle. It requires overcoming technical bottlenecks such as large mold manufacturing and thermal deformation control. 4. Intelligent Design Embedding wire control systems (such as steer-by-wire/brake-by-wire) and sensors, supporting autonomous driving and chassis dynamic adjustment. Through digital simulation, it optimizes design, achieving synergistic innovation in function and structure. Technical Challenges 1. Process Complexity Requirements for ultra-large die-casting equipment: forming large, complex structures requires high-precision die-casting machines, imposing extremely high demands on equipment stability, mold life, and process parameter control. Defect control: integrated die-casting can easily produce internal defects such as porosity and shrinkage, which need to be addressed through simulation, process optimization (such as vacuum die-casting), and online detection technology. 2. Material and Thermal Management Issues The fluidity and solidification shrinkage characteristics of high-strength aluminum alloys must match the die-casting process to avoid cracking or deformation. Large components are prone to residual stress during cooling, requiring optimized mold cooling system design. 3. Design and Validation Challenges It is necessary to use CAE simulation to predict structural strength, crash safety, and fatigue life in advance, reducing trial-and-error costs. Integrated chassis must meet stringent vehicle safety standards (such as crash tests), with a complex and costly validation process. 4. Repair Cost Controversy Integrated structures are difficult to repair locally after collision damage, potentially increasing repair costs, requiring new solutions from insurance and after-sales systems. 5. Insufficient Supply Chain Support Ultra-large die-casting machines and high-temperature resistant mold materials still rely on imports, and domestic alternatives need to accelerate breakthroughs. Recycling and reusing technology for integrated aluminum-based chassis is not yet mature, requiring the establishment of a circular economy model. For more in-depth research and analysis, please attend the [Aluminum Die-Casting Industry Development Forum] on April 16, 2025, during the AICE Aluminum Industry Expo, where industry experts will share their insights on-site! 3 Forum Introduction / AICE 2025 AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference and Aluminum Industry Expo, as a platform focusing on upstream and downstream industries, including aluminum ore smelting, metal processing, and end-use consumption, will open at the Suzhou International Expo Center from April 16-18, 2025. Aluminum Die-Casting Industry Development Forum As one of the most important forums of AICE 2025, on April 16, 2025, it will focus on key topics such as integrated NEV chassis, large integrated die-casting structural components, integrated die-casting processes, innovative cooperation models for NEVs, aluminum usage trends, die-casting processes for electric drive housings, magnesium die-casting vs. aluminum die-casting, secondary aluminum alloy ingot prices, and low-pressure vs. high-pressure die-casting processes, bringing an unparalleled event to the aluminum industry in the spring of the year. 4 Forum Agenda / AICE 2025
Mar 25, 2025 09:14Official Announcement
Feb 28, 2025 19:05To comprehend the intricacies of copper scrap and the factors influencing its market, one must first recognize the importance of copper in various industries. Copper is a versatile metal widely used in electrical wiring, plumbing, telecommunications, and countless other applications due to its excellent conductivity and malleability. The recycling of copper scrap plays a crucial role in meeting the demand for this essential material.
Aug 6, 2024 18:33