Risk appetite has improved notably in the market recently, and SHFE tin rode the momentum to rally sharply in succession. Futures prices have successfully breached the 400,000 mark, hitting a new high in over two months, with extremely strong performance. What factors are supporting the tin price rally that is in full swing? Can the bullish stance continue? Middle East Tensions Ease, Risk Appetite Recovers Since the sudden escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions in late February, affected by changes in inflation expectations caused by wild swings in energy prices, global equities and most commodity prices have exhibited a seesaw effect with energy products. Recently, the Middle East situation has been rapidly evolving, market risk appetite has fluctuated accordingly, and SHFE tin futures—whose price movements have always been susceptible to sentiment—have seen significantly amplified fluctuations. During the holiday, the US pushed the so-called operation to clear stranded vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran conflict escalated sharply, the ceasefire agreement was in jeopardy, and market risk appetite weakened at one point. However, after the holiday, positive news from US-Iran negotiations emerged repeatedly. US President Trump posted on social media on the evening of May 5 (Eastern Time), stating that the "Freedom Plan" to "clear" vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be suspended in the short term. On May 6, Trump expressed optimism multiple times about reaching a deal with Iran, saying the US and Iran had "productive" dialogue over the past 24 hours and that a final agreement was "very likely." Additionally, according to multiple White House officials and informed sources, both sides are extremely close to reaching a one-page memorandum of understanding. Based on the current statements from both sides, hopes for ending the conflict are rising, energy prices have pulled back sharply, risk appetite has improved notably, providing fertile ground for tin price gains. Semiconductor Stocks Launch a Bull Feast, Optimism Spills Over It is currently earnings season for publicly listed firms. The latest quarterly results and outlooks from US chip giants have been quite impressive, with Intel, Micron, and others surging collectively, and the US Nasdaq index hitting new highs repeatedly. South Korea's two memory chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have soared sharply, while A-share listed Cambricon touched a high of 1,966 yuan, reflecting the resonance between booming industry performance and macro tailwinds. Since tin is an indispensable material in chip manufacturing and packaging, against the backdrop of semiconductor stocks rallying collectively and the computing-power metal narrative continuing to unfold, demand expectations for the tin market are highly optimistic. Leading tin stocks surged sharply on the boost, and driven by futures-equity linkage sentiment, capital has flooded in. SHFE tin saw significant increases in open interest over two consecutive days while rising, and futures prices are now just one step away from the previous high. Demand Side Rich in Narratives, Social Inventory Running at Low Levels Returning to tin's own supply-demand fundamentals, structural tightness on the ore side continues to constrain tin ingot output, and policy uncertainties along with supply disruption news from major overseas producing regions frequently impact tin prices. Currently, Myanmar's production resumptions are progressing slower than expected, and with the rainy season approaching, production may remain constrained. Although Indonesia's export quotas have increased somewhat, policy remains unstable, and recently a phased supply gap has emerged due to export license renewal procedures. Customs data showed that tin ore imports exceeded 17,000 mt in each of the first three months of this year, all with significant YoY increases. China's refined tin output is in the ramp-up stage, and institutions will also successively release April production data soon, so supply recovery warrants continued attention. The tin market's demand side has relatively strong support, and under the computing-power metal concept, there are many tradeable themes that frequently provide upward momentum for tin prices. Since AI servers and other high-end chips require 3-5 times more tin solder than ordinary servers, the semiconductor industry's prosperity has become the main driver supporting tin price trends. Currently, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is at a high level of prosperity, having steadily broken through the 10,000-point mark, and global semiconductor sales also grew significantly in Q1, with tin solder demand expected to continue growing. NEV side, although growth has slowed down somewhat, NEV production and sales have rebounded quickly, and their tin consumption demand remains relatively stable. PV side, new PV installations are not expected to grow, but policy floor expectations exist. Meanwhile, traditional production and sales expectations for home appliances, consumer electronics, and other sectors are also relatively weak, and tin chemicals are unlikely to see much additional demand growth. During the traditional peak demand season of March-April, China's tin market performed moderately, with tin ingot social inventory declining to a nearly four-month low, reflecting seasonal destocking. However, with the recent sharp rally in tin prices, spot premiums for tin in China have narrowed significantly, and the sustainability of demand under high prices still warrants attention going forward. Overall, the recent tin price surge was truly a confluence of favorable timing, conditions, and sentiment—support from the macro front, sentiment, and supply-demand fundamentals were all indispensable. Currently, geopolitical tensions have eased, the constraint on risk assets has loosened, the prosperity of global semiconductor-related stocks continues, and optimistic sentiment still easily transmits to SHFE tin futures. The low open interest characteristic of SHFE tin also amplifies futures price fluctuations. However, it is worth noting that the Middle East situation is prone to reversals, and after the semiconductor sector has repeatedly hit new highs, one should also be wary of potential pullback risks—caution is advised before rushing to buy amid continuous price rises. (Webstock Inc.)

It’s now been officially one week since combined U.S. and Israeli forces started striking locations within Iran.

The market fluctuated and rebounded throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 1.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 252.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. On the futures market, hot topics rotated rapidly, with more stocks rising than falling. Over 3,500 stocks across the market advanced. In terms of sectors, the IP economy concept remained strong throughout the day, with multiple stocks such as Enlight Media hitting the daily limit. The stablecoin concept strengthened again, with stocks like GCL New Energy Holdings and Hundsun Technologies hitting the daily limit. The chemical sector remained active, with stocks like Jinniu Chemical hitting the daily limit. On the downside, the football concept experienced volatile adjustments, with Gongchuang Lawn approaching the daily limit down. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.66%. Sector-wise In the sector, stablecoin concept stocks strengthened further in the afternoon, with stocks like Insigma Technology, Tiansun Technology, Hundsun Technologies, Hengbao, China Finance Online, and Oceanpayment hitting the daily limit. Stocks like Lakala and Feitian Technologies rose over 10%. On the news front, Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government Paul Chan Mo-po recently wrote that after the Stablecoin Ordinance comes into effect, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will process license applications as soon as possible to allow eligible applicants to commence their businesses. Additionally, Walmart, the largest retailer in the US, and Amazon, the largest e-commerce platform in the US, have recently been exploring the possibility of issuing stablecoins in the US. This, combined with the continuous surge in Circle, a stablecoin concept stock listed on the US stock market, has also catalyzed positive sentiment for A-shares. However, after the overall volume surge in the stablecoin sector, it remains noteworthy whether there will be sufficient capital inflows to support the sector tomorrow. If the sector can maintain its upward momentum or complete a transition from divergence to consensus within the day, its short-term position may be further strengthened. Conversely, if it returns to consolidation after a sentiment peak, it should be viewed from the perspective of topic rotation, with a focus on front-line core stocks at that time. The IP economy concept remained strong throughout the day, with stocks like Enlight Media, GaoLe, Cuihua Jewelry, Yuanlong Yatu, and Dazzle Fashion hitting the daily limit. Stocks like Rastar Group, Jinghua Laser, Kingwin Laser, and Bona Film Group led the gains. On the news front, on the IP side, Labubu has gone viral globally, with the overseas expansion of domestic cultural IPs exceeding expectations. Industry insiders commented that its popularity is another vivid manifestation of Chinese creativity and innovative products gaining global recognition. Huachuang Securities remains bullish on the high-growth development of China's IP industry and the progress of cultural exports in the long term. From a market perspective, the overall position of IP economy concept stocks has already risen significantly after the hype. Therefore, amid intensifying market divergence, fluctuations in related stocks during the trading day may be more pronounced. However, as long as the medium-term trend remains intact, the overall risk is relatively controllable. In addition, the market's recent speculation on the IP economy has gradually extended to sub-sectors such as film and television, gaming, and even 3D printing. Therefore, attention can still be paid to the rebound opportunities of newly strengthened stocks in lower-tier sub-sectors. Regarding individual stocks From the perspective of individual stocks, although short-term sentiment showed some recovery today, the feedback from high-level consecutive limit-up stocks remained relatively average. As of the close, only Yuanlong Yatu remained among the stocks with more than two consecutive limit-ups today. However, stocks like Beikong Technology, Nanhua Futures, Yiming Pharmaceutical, and Hengbao Co., although unable to maintain consecutive limit-ups, still managed to sustain a strong upward structure after breaking the streak. Therefore, in terms of the current speculative style, funds are no longer confined to pure consecutive limit-up strategies but are engaging in trend-based speculation combined with industry logic. On the other hand, the number of stocks with two consecutive limit-ups today increased to 16, mainly focusing on sectors such as oil and gas, IP economy, stablecoins, and chemicals. Therefore, which stocks can stand out in the future will also be a key focus, as the themes behind them may still hold certain rebound opportunities. Market Outlook Analysis The market rebounded with fluctuations today, with all three major indices closing in the green and more stocks rising than falling. This reflects that, after last Friday's high-volume adjustment, the market still possesses considerable momentum. However, it is worth noting that today's trading volume shrank significantly (a single-day decrease of over 250 billion yuan). Combined with the recent week's trend of "volume increases during declines and shrinks during rebounds," the market will need to confirm a renewed strength by breaking above the 5-day moving average with increased volume. From the perspective of the futures market, as repeatedly emphasized recently, the current hot topics continue to rotate rapidly, making it difficult for the market to form sufficient buying momentum. Therefore, to further enhance the profitability of the futures market, a more defined leading theme is needed to elevate the market's potential. Market News Focus 1. Goldman Sachs Turns Bullish Again: Global Funds Returning to China, Favoring China's "Top Ten" Stocks According to a report by CLS on June 16, Goldman Sachs' Chief China Equity Strategist, Kenneth Lau, recently released a research report titled "The Return of Chinese Private Enterprises: The Tide Has Turned." Lau pointed out that driven by various macro, policy, and micro factors, the medium-term investment outlook for Chinese private enterprises is improving. Goldman Sachs also emulated the "Magnificent Seven" of U.S. stocks and listed China's "Top Ten," which are the ten Chinese private publicly listed firms that Goldman Sachs particularly favors. They are Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hengrui Medicine, Trip.com, and Anta. The combined market capitalization of the aforementioned ten companies reached US$1.6 trillion, accounting for 42% of the MSCI China Index's weight, with daily trading volume reaching US$11 billion. Goldman Sachs analysts forecast that the earnings of the "Big Ten" will increase by 13% (compound annual growth rate) over the next two years, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 16x. The "Big Ten" will collectively embody the latest economic themes in China, including AI/technology development, "going global," new consumption trends, and enhancing shareholder returns. Additionally, Liu Jinjin specifically noted that investing in private enterprises does not mean excluding state-owned enterprises—Goldman Sachs reiterated its preference for a combination of "high-quality" Chinese state-owned enterprises and shareholder returns. 2. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Industrial Added Value Above Designated Size Grew 5.8% YoY in Real Terms in May Caijing News on June 16: Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in May, the industrial added value above designated size grew 5.8% YoY in real terms. On a MoM basis, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 0.61% in May compared to the previous month. From January to May, the industrial added value above designated size grew 6.3% YoY.

On Thursday (June 12), US stocks opened lower but closed higher, with all three major indexes rising collectively. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 closed at their highest levels in at least three months. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.24% to 42,967.62 points, its highest level since March 6; the S&P 500 rose 0.38% to 6,045.26 points, a new high since February 21; and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.24% to 19,662.48 points. Among the 30 Dow components, 19 rose and 11 fell. The biggest decliner was Boeing (-4.79%). Earlier in the day, an Air India Boeing 787-8 aircraft crashed shortly after takeoff, marking the first fatal accident involving the Boeing 787 model. Driven by Oracle's positive earnings report after the market close the previous day, AI-related stocks generally rose. Oracle surged 13.31%, closing at an all-time high, with its total market capitalization reaching $560 billion, surpassing Mastercard and Netflix. Oracle's earnings report showed that the company's revenue and earnings across all segments exceeded analysts' expectations. To top it off, the company also raised its revenue forecast for the next fiscal year and provided an optimistic outlook for accelerated growth in cloud infrastructure. Oracle CEO Safra Catz stated on the earnings call that Oracle expects total revenue for fiscal 2026 to reach at least $67 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 16.7%, up from the previous forecast of 15% growth. As previously reported by Cailian Press, Trump had announced an AI infrastructure project named "Stargate," with SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle as the initial three companies involved in this $500 billion project. In addition to AI factors, the better-than-expected PPI report before the market open also boosted US stocks. Data showed that the US PPI rose 2.6% YoY in May, in line with expectations; core PPI rose 3%, below the market consensus of 3.1%. Analysts believe this indicates that tariffs have not yet imposed higher inflationary pressure on consumers, further boosting expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in September. Similar to yesterday's CPI report, Trump once again pressured the US Fed to cut interest rates after the data release. Tom Hainlin, Senior Investment Strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management Group, said that the future direction of US stocks depends on the resolution of tariff issues and how that resolution affects government budgets and US Fed policies. Hainlin stated, "We believe that the uncertainty surrounding the progress of trade negotiations remains the fundamental situation for the stock market. The market is currently experiencing sideways movement, and it is difficult to see a sustained breakthrough until we reach a conclusion." Performance of Popular Stocks Large-cap tech stocks had mixed changes. (Ranked by market capitalization) Microsoft rose by 1.32%, Nvidia rose by 1.52%; Apple rose by 0.21%, Amazon rose by 0.02%, Google C fell by 1.02%, Meta fell by 0.11%, Broadcom rose by 1.25%, and Tesla fell by 2.23%. US fintech company Chime saw its shares rise by 37.44% on its first day of trading. Among Chinese ADRs, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.41%. Most popular Chinese ADRs declined. XPeng Motors fell by 5.87%, NIO fell by 3.21%, Li Auto fell by 1.8%, Alibaba fell by 1.45%, New Oriental fell by 0.96%, and JD.com fell by 0.36%. Zai Lab rose by 3.94%, Kingsoft Cloud rose by 3.74%, Tencent Music rose by 1.29%, Baidu rose by 0.3%, and Pinduoduo rose by 0.26%. Company News [Trump Signs Resolution to Block California's Plan to Ban Sales of New Gasoline-Powered Cars] US President Trump signed a resolution at the White House on the 12th to block California's plan to be the first state in the US to ban sales of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035. [Apple Plans to Upgrade Long-Delayed AI Siri in Spring 2026] Apple plans to upgrade its long-delayed AI Siri in spring 2026. The company hopes to include new Siri features in the iOS 26.4 software. [Jensen Huang: Autonomous Driving and Robots Will Take Off in the Next Few Years] Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said on Thursday that autonomous vehicles and robotics technology will flourish in the next few years. Nvidia plays an important role in advancing the development of autonomous vehicles, providing both hardware and software solutions. Musk expressed a similar view to Huang's last month, stating that for Tesla, the most important things in the long run are autonomous driving and the humanoid robot "Optimus." [Lisa Su: AI Chip Market Size to Exceed $500 Billion by 2028] AMD CEO Lisa Su said that the AI chip market size will exceed $500 billion by 2028, and the inference chip market will grow even faster. Musk's AI startup xAI uses AMD's MI300 AI chips, and AMD has launched the MI350 and MI355 chips. The MI400 chip will be launched next year. [Coinbase: Will Launch Its First Credit Card, Coinbase One Card, on American Express's Network] Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it will launch its first credit card, the Coinbase One Card, on American Express's network. This card is exclusively for Coinbase One members in the US. Each purchase transaction will earn up to 4% cashback in Bitcoin. More information will be disclosed in the fall of 2025. [Adobe's Q2 revenue was $5.87 billion, exceeding expectations] Adobe's Q2 revenue was $5.87 billion, compared to analysts' expectations of $5.80 billion. The adjusted EPS for Q2 was $5.06, compared to analysts' expectations of $4.98. The company is expected to generate annual revenue of $23.5 billion to $23.6 billion, up from its original forecast of $23.3 billion to $23.55 billion. The company expects Q3 revenue to be $5.88 billion to $5.93 billion, compared to analysts' expectations of $5.88 billion. The company expects Q3 digital media revenue to be $4.37 billion to $4.40 billion, compared to analysts' expectations of $4.34 billion.

The three major Hong Kong stock indices weakened collectively. By the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.08% to 24,162.87, the Tech Index dropped 0.76% to 5,392.19, and the HSCEI declined 0.15% to 8,767.36. Note: Hang Seng Index performance From the above, the Hang Seng Index once dipped to 24,013.95 in the afternoon, then continued its fluctuating trend. The Tech Index and HSCEI showed similar movements during the same period. Today's market Market-wise, pharmaceutical, gold, and banking stocks strengthened, while new consumer and semiconductor-related stocks weakened. Innovative Drugs Lead Gains, Blue Chips Hit New Highs By the close, 3SBio (01530.HK), China Medical Group (08225.HK), and Luye Pharma (02186.HK) rose 9.84%, 8.33%, and 4.39% respectively. Note: Pharmaceutical stocks performance 3SBio led the sector's gains and briefly hit a record high during the session. This followed its overseas licensing deal - the company granted Pfizer global rights (excluding mainland China) for its self-developed PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707. The agreement includes a non-refundable $1.25 billion upfront payment, up to $4.8 billion in potential milestone payments, and double-digit percentage sales royalties. The market generally views Hong Kong as the "springboard for Chinese innovative drugmakers going global", potentially entering a historic investment opportunity window. Gold Rally Extends, Silver Poised for Catch-Up By the close, China Silver Group (00815.HK), Tongguan Gold (00340.HK), and China Gold International (02099.HK) advanced 17.65%, 7.09%, and 4.50% respectively. Note: Gold stocks performance China Securities noted silver twice broke through the key $35.5/oz resistance level weekly. Against a five-year supply-demand gap, tariff policy easing triggered gold-silver ratio correction, with silver's catch-up momentum expected to continue. COMEX silver futures open interest rose 12% weekly, indicating accelerated institutional positioning in precious metals. Banking Stocks Show Steady Gains By the close, Qingdao Bank (03866.HK), Chongqing Bank (01963.HK), and Minsheng Bank (01988.HK) climbed 6.80%, 2.95%, and 2.55% respectively. Note: Performance of banking stocks GF Securities pointed out that under the condition where the central bank safeguards the stability of the interbank market, the liquidity pressure in the bond market has decreased, and concerns about rising interbank interest rates have been eliminated. It is expected that the intensity of monetary policy and credit efforts to stabilize growth will increase in June and the second half of the year (H2). Deep correction in new consumption stocks, valuation pressure amidst upcoming lock-up expiry At the close, Guming (01364.HK), BLK (00325.HK), and Cha Baidao (02555.HK) fell by 6.69%, 6.21%, and 5.60%, respectively. Note: Performance of new consumption concept stocks In terms of news, the adjustment pressure mainly comes from two aspects: firstly, the previous valuations have overextended growth prospects; secondly, the lock-up expiry is approaching, with Guming set to have 2.23 billion locked-up shares released on August 12, accounting for over 40% of the float. The consumer sector exhibits a clear rotation from high to low valuations, with capital shifting towards the pharmaceutical and financial sectors, which offer greater safety margins. Semiconductor stocks under pressure and volatile, with short-term fluctuations likely to persist At the close, Shanghai Fudan (01385.HK), Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK), and SMIC (00981.HK) fell by 4.36%, 3.08%, and 1.89%, respectively. Note: Performance of semiconductor stocks In terms of news, the impact of SMIC's Q1 yield fluctuations may persist for 4-5 months, primarily due to insufficient process stability during the equipment verification period; Hua Hong Semiconductor's Q2 revenue guidance is 3-5% below market expectations. Donghai Securities believes that despite tariff disruptions in the industry in May, the trend of improving supply and demand remains unchanged. It suggests focusing on leading companies in niche sectors experiencing accelerated localization substitution. Individual stock movements METALIGHT falls over 30% on its debut, with international placement only 2.49 times subscribed METALIGHT (02605.HK) fell by 30.26% to close at HK$6.80. Notably, on the trading day before its listing, the stock already showed a trend of moving downwards after a higher opening in the grey market. In terms of subscription, METALIGHT was 274.44 times subscribed in the public offering phase, but only 2.49 times subscribed in the international placement phase. China Rare Earth surges over 13% as rare earth exports are somewhat relaxed China Rare Earth (00769.HK) rose by 13.24% to close at HK$0.77. In terms of news, on June 7, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce answered questions from reporters regarding export control measures on medium-heavy rare earth, stating that implementing export controls on rare earths is in line with international practices, and China has approved a certain number of compliant applications in accordance with the law. Guotai Haitong Securities previously pointed out that after China implemented export controls on medium-heavy rare earth, overseas prices for medium-heavy rare earth have surged, rapidly widening the price spread between domestic and overseas markets. Domestic export licenses have been gradually issued, and the bank believes that the overseas price increases are expected to gradually transmit to the domestic market.

On Tuesday (May 13), the three major US stock indices had mixed changes, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) declining while the S&P 500 recouped all its losses for the year. By the close, the S&P 500 rose 0.72% to close at 5,886.55, its highest level since early March. Its year-to-date (YTD) change turned positive, now up 0.08%, after having fallen more than 17% earlier this year. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.61% to close at 19,010.08, its first close above 19,000 since February 26. The DJIA fell 0.64% to close at 42,140.43, dragged down by a 17.79% plunge in UnitedHealth Group, one of its components. Before the market opened, UnitedHealth announced it would suspend its 2025 outlook, and its CEO, Andrew Witty, stepped down immediately for personal reasons. The day before, high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US reached important consensus and made substantive progress, directly reflected in a significant reduction in bilateral tariff levels. This development was highly praised by the international community, and financial markets also responded positively, with all three major US stock indices rising collectively on Monday. On Tuesday, a meeting between US President Trump and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman further boosted the stock market. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced at the Saudi-US Investment Forum that Nvidia would sell over 18,000 artificial intelligence (AI) chips to Saudi company Humain. After that, Trump was also set to head to Qatar and the UAE. During the trading day, news emerged that the Trump administration was considering an agreement that would allow the UAE to import over 1 million advanced Nvidia chips, far exceeding the restrictions set by the Biden administration's AI chip export rules. Influenced by these developments, Nvidia surged 5.63% in a single day, closing at its highest level since February 27. Shares of other chipmakers also strengthened, with Broadcom rising 4.89% and AMD up 4.01%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.15%, narrowing its YTD decline to less than 1%. In addition to the positive news on chips, the latest US CPI data also boosted the market. Data released before the market opened by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the CPI rose 2.3% YoY in April, and the core index rose 2.8% YoY, both the lowest since early 2021. During the trading day, Trump posted on Truth Social, saying, "There is no more inflation! Prices for gasoline, energy, groceries, and almost everything else are falling!!! The US Fed must cut interest rates. What's going on with 'Mr. Delay' Powell?" Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said, "Trade news, combined with Saudi Arabia's massive chip deal and the prospect of falling inflation, could prompt the US Fed to advance the timing of an interest rate cut. Add to that the substantive details of tax cuts, and market risk sentiment is heating up across the board." Performance of Popular Stocks Most large-cap tech stocks rose, with (ranked by market capitalization) Microsoft down 0.03%, Apple up 1.02%, Nvidia up 5.63%, Amazon up 1.31%, Google C up 0.82%, Meta up 2.6%, and Broadcom up 4.89%. Tesla surged 4.93%, closing at its highest level since February 24. The solar panel sector and cryptocurrency-related stocks led the gains. Coinbase soared 23.97% after being added to the S&P 500 Index. Among Chinese ADRs, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.07%. Popular Chinese ADRs had mixed performances, with Amer Sports up 3.86%, JD.com up 3.33%, Pinduoduo up 2.64%, and Tencent Music up 2.51%. Chagee fell 10.88%, GDS Holdings dropped 6.14%, TAL Education Group declined 2.34%, NIO fell 1.9%, XPeng Motors dropped 1.66%, Li Auto declined 1.48%, New Oriental Education & Technology Group fell 0.94%, Alibaba Group Holding fell 0.68%, and Baidu fell 0.2%. Company News [US Considering Allowing UAE to Purchase Over 1 Million Advanced Nvidia Chips] According to sources familiar with the matter, the Trump administration is considering a deal that would allow the UAE to import over 1 million advanced Nvidia chips, far exceeding the limits set by AI chip regulations during the Biden era. The sources said the agreement is still under negotiation and could change. From now until 2027, the UAE will be allowed to import 500,000 of the most advanced chips on the market each year. One-fifth of these will be reserved for Abu Dhabi-based AI company G42, with the remainder going to US companies building data centers in the UAE. [OpenAI Considering Building Data Center in UAE, Potential Announcement During Trump's Middle East Trip] OpenAI is considering building a new data center in the UAE, a move that could significantly expand its presence in the Middle East. The agreement has not yet been finalised and could still change, with an announcement potentially coming as early as this week during US President Trump's visit to the Middle East. Trump is scheduled to visit the UAE on Thursday. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is also currently visiting the region as part of a collective trip by tech leaders. According to sources familiar with the matter, it is currently unclear how much data center capacity OpenAI plans to build in the UAE. The success or failure of this project largely depends on whether OpenAI can successfully import Nvidia's cutting-edge chips for developing and training AI models. Since 2023, the US has been restricting the sale of such chips to the UAE. However, according to media reports, Trump administration officials are on the verge of reaching an agreement to ease access for this Gulf country. [AMD and Saudi AI firm Humain reach a strategic cooperation worth $10 billion] AMD has reached a strategic cooperation worth $10 billion with Saudi AI firm Humain to advance global AI. Under the agreement, the two parties will invest up to $10 billion to deploy 500 megawatts (MW) of AI computing power over the next five years. [Tesla's Robotaxi safety under US regulatory investigation, with FSD system in focus] US regulators are intensifying their scrutiny of Tesla's Robotaxi plan. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has sent a list of questions to the company as part of its ongoing investigation into Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software. The agency wants to understand how the FSD system performs in adverse conditions such as fog, rain, or bright sunlight, and has inquired about Tesla's plans to safely test Robotaxi on public roads. This investigation began in October 2024, following four accidents involving the FSD system in low-visibility environments. Currently, Tesla's FSD still requires drivers to remain alert and keep their hands on the wheel. However, CEO Elon Musk has stated that the upcoming Robotaxi version will achieve fully unsupervised driving. Regulators hope to confirm whether the new system is the same as the existing road version, and have also inquired about the number of vehicles, areas of use, and Tesla's safety verification methods. [GM and LG Energy Solution collaborate to develop new-type LMR prismatic batteries] General Motors (GM) has announced that it, together with LG Energy Solution, will commercialize lithium-rich manganese-based (LMR) prismatic battery cells for future GM electric trucks and full-size SUVs through a new battery technology breakthrough. GM aims to become the first automaker to deploy LMR batteries in EVs. Ultium Cells, a joint venture between GM and LG Energy Solution, plans to commence commercial production of LMR prismatic battery cells in the US by 2028, with pilot production expected to take place at LG Energy Solution's factory by the end of 2027. According to reports, battery engineers from GM and LG Energy Solution have developed a new-type LMR prismatic battery cell that achieves a 33% increase in energy density compared to the best-performing lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery cells, while maintaining similar costs.

The market experienced a volatile and divergent session throughout the day, with the three major indices showing mixed performance. The combined trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.17 trillion yuan, up 147.2 billion yuan from the previous session. On the futures market, market hot topics rotated rapidly, with more stocks rising than falling, and over 3,400 stocks across the market advanced. By sector, robotics concept stocks surged again, with more than 10 stocks, including Jinggong Technology, hitting the daily limit. Computing power concept stocks staged a rebound, with Hongbo Co., Ltd. and others hitting the daily limit. Huawei concept stocks were active, with Changshan Beiming hitting the daily limit. On the downside, bank stocks collectively adjusted, with Huaxia Bank falling over 8%. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.83%. By Sector In the sector, robotics concept stocks surged across the board, with Daye Co., Ltd., South China Precision, Xiangxin Technology, Nanjing Chemical Fiber, and Jinggong Technology hitting the daily limit. On the news front, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) recently stated that humanoid robots are advanced carriers of artificial intelligence empowering new-type industrialization, and will promote the innovative development of the humanoid robot industry, driving the development of the artificial intelligence industry through the small entry point of humanoid robots, and empowering new-type industrialization at a high level. From a market perspective, today's robotics speculation focused on sub-sectors such as exoskeleton robots, reducers, and motors, while the previously hottest PEEK materials showed divergence. It is expected that this round of robotics rebound will still be dominated by rotational upward movement, and opportunities for low-position catch-up can still be sought. Computing power concept stocks staged a rebound, with Hongbo Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit for four consecutive sessions, and Changshan Beiming, Zhewen Internet, Chaoxun Communication, and Hubei Broadcasting & Television hitting the daily limit, while Yakang Co., Ltd. and Digital China led the gains. On the news front, the "Key Points of Work for Promoting the Healthy and High-Quality Development of the Private Economy in Beijing in 2025" was recently released. It proposed that Beijing will support private enterprises in building intelligent computing centers, and provide support to enterprises that purchase domestically controllable GPU chips for intelligent computing services based on a certain proportion of their investment. In addition, according to the recent intensive disclosure of 2024 annual reports and 2025 first-quarter reports by listed companies, the performance of companies related to the AI computing power industry mostly showed good performance, confirming that the industry maintains a high prosperity state. After continuous consolidation, both the valuation of related stocks and the accumulation of chips have been relatively sufficient, and the repair opportunities for stocks with better performance and relatively low positions can still be followed up. By Stock At the stock level, the overall market's money-making effect is still slowly improving, with over 100 stocks rising more than 9% today. However, it should be noted that in the process of the alternation of old and new cycles, stocks showed a clear switch between high and low positions. Some previously high-position popular stocks have successively retreated, such as BBK, Anji Food, Tianyuan Co., Ltd., and Hongqiang Co., Ltd., all hitting the daily limit, while Maoye Commercial, the highest consecutive daily limit stock yesterday, also fell sharply after hitting the daily limit. The technology growth direction represented by TMT has strengthened again. Computing power stock Hongbo Co., Ltd. advanced to four consecutive daily limits, PEEK material concept stock Zhongxin Fluoride hit the daily limit again for five daily limits in seven sessions, and capacity targets such as Tuowei Information, Inspur Information, Wolong Electric Drive, Shuanglin Co., Ltd., and Daily Interactive also saw capital inflows. Whether these technology growth directions can continue to show continuity remains the focus of the market after the holiday. Post-Market Analysis Today, the market continued its volatile and divergent trend, with the three major indices ultimately showing mixed performance. However, it is worth noting that the trading volume of the two markets has increased to a certain extent compared to the previous few days, reflecting the market's confidence in the post-holiday market, and more importantly, it can be seen as a position adjustment for the future market. With the end of the April earnings season, the market's concerns about the performance of the technology sector have "landed," and the technology growth style is expected to return again. Therefore, today's two core directions of robotics and AI both showed signs of large-scale capital inflows. The feedback of the technology stock direction after the holiday may, to a certain extent, determine the overall strength of the market. If it can continue to show a money-making effect, it may attract more incremental capital inflows, and short-term speculation sentiment is expected to be more active. If it continues to fluctuate, the future market is expected to continue to rotate around the three major directions of technology growth, large consumption, and dividends, and grasping the rhythm is still key. Market News Focus 1. China's April Manufacturing PMI at 49%, Down 1.5 Percentage Points MoM Cailian Press, April 30. The China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Service Industry Survey Center today (30th) released China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April. Affected by factors such as drastic changes in the external environment, the manufacturing PMI in April pulled back MoM, but related industries such as high-tech manufacturing continued to expand, and the production and operation of manufacturing enterprises mainly engaged in domestic sales remained generally stable. China's manufacturing PMI in April was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points MoM. From the perspective of key industries, the demand for new momentum remained stable and increased overall, and domestic market demand maintained good growth. The PMI of high-tech manufacturing in April was 51.5%, significantly higher than the overall manufacturing level, continuing a good development trend. The new orders index of consumer goods manufacturing also stood at the 50% critical point, indicating that the domestic market demand for consumer goods manufacturing was well released. From the perspective of enterprise expectations, the production and operation activity expectation index in April was 52.1%, continuing to be in the expansion territory. From the perspective of the non-manufacturing sector, the non-manufacturing sector continued to expand overall, with investment, consumption, and new momentum-related activities showing positive performance. The business activity index of the service sector in April was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points MoM, still above the critical point. Among them, residents' tourism and leisure-related activities performed well, and information service-related industries remained active. 2. Silicon Industry Branch: Few Transactions in the Polysilicon Spot Market This Week, Prices Gradually Loosened Cailian Press, April 30. According to the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, there were few transactions in the polysilicon spot market this week, and prices gradually loosened. The transaction price range of n-type recharging polysilicon was 37,000-45,000 yuan/mt, with an average transaction price of 39,200 yuan/mt, down 2.73% MoM; the transaction price range of n-type granular polysilicon was 36,000-38,000 yuan/mt, with an average transaction price of 37,000 yuan/mt, down 2.63% MoM; the transaction price range of p-type polysilicon was 31,000-35,000 yuan/mt, with an average transaction price of 32,300 yuan/mt, down 2.12% MoM. So far, all polysilicon enterprises in production in China are basically in a state of reduced load operation. It is expected that polysilicon production in May will continue to be maintained at around 100,000 mt, but the production schedule of polysilicon enterprises this month is highly uncertain.

Boosted by multiple favorable factors related to intelligent driving, some related stocks in the Hong Kong market experienced varying degrees of increase. As of press time, RoboSense (02498.HK) rose 6.61%, SenseTime-W (00020.HK) increased 1.37%, and Innovusion (02431.HK) gained 0.89%. Note: Performance of Hong Kong-listed intelligent driving concept stocks Policy Sets the Development Path for Intelligent Driving On April 28, the MIIT released the key points for automotive standardization work in 2025, strengthening the supply of standards for intelligent connected vehicles. It promoted the approval, release, and implementation of standards for autonomous driving design operating conditions, automatic parking, and autonomous driving simulation testing, accelerated the development of mandatory national standards for autonomous driving system safety requirements, and established a safety baseline for autonomous driving systems. It also expedited the formulation and revision of mandatory national standards for combined driving assistance systems and automatic emergency braking systems, revised the lane-keeping assistance system standards, and promoted the development of standards for reversing assistance, enhancing the safety level of driving assistance products. The MIIT also pointed out that it would accelerate the promotion and implementation of standards for LTE-V2X direct communication vehicle information interaction systems, advance the formulation of standards for platooning, digital keys, and connected information assistance, and promote the accelerated application of connected functions. It would push for the release and implementation of standards for information security engineering, accelerate the formulation of mandatory national standards for automotive cryptography, complete the review of data security management systems and automotive security vulnerability classification and grading standards, and expedite the development of important data identification standards to enhance cybersecurity and data security capabilities. It would also promote the development of standards for smart cabin function evaluation, interaction safety, and biological retention monitoring, improve the smart cabin and human-machine interaction standard systems, conduct pre-research on automotive AI standards, and lead the integration and application of new technologies. Penetration Rate of L2 and Above Functions Expected to Exceed 60% The latest report from Canalys predicts that the penetration rate of L2 and above functions in the Chinese market will reach 62% in 2025, a significant increase from 2024, with high-speed NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) and urban NOA reaching 10.8% and 9.9%, respectively. It is expected that from 2027 to 2028, the growth rate of urban NOA will surpass that of high-speed NOA, rapidly evolving the market structure and reshaping the SoC competitive landscape. CPCA data supports this trend. According to the automotive intelligent connected insights report for February 2025, the installation rate of L2 and above assisted driving functions in passenger NEVs reached 66.3% in January-February 2025, with further growth in the installation rate of intelligent driving in the market below 160,000 yuan. RoboSense Leads in Stock Gains In terms of individual stock performance, RoboSense led the gains. On April 25, RoboSense CEO Qiu Chunchao was invited to attend the SAIC Volkswagen Brand Day launch event and signed the SAIC Volkswagen Technology X Ecosystem Strategic Cooperation Agreement on stage alongside representatives from Baidu, Alibaba Cloud, and CATL. Innovusion also saw a slight increase, rising 0.89% as of press time. The company previously secured a project with a NEV manufacturer to provide mid-to-high-level intelligent driving domain control products for high-end car models priced around 300,000 yuan, with the project set to be delivered within the year. Institutions Predict Accelerated Penetration of LiDAR CITIC Securities pointed out that safety will become a key selling point for driving assistance, and LiDAR is expected to gradually become a "standard product." Since 2023, OEMs have accelerated the deployment of L2-level combined driving assistance functions. Compared to vision-based solutions, LiDAR offers stronger recognition capabilities at night, higher recognition accuracy, and the ability to identify more obstacles, enhancing the robustness and safety of related functions. Although LiDAR was previously more commonly found in high-end configurations of mid-to-high-priced car models, the bank believes that after this round of standardization, safety will become a major selling point for L2-level intelligent driving, and LiDAR, as a safety net sensor, is expected to accelerate its penetration.

The market fluctuated and diverged throughout the day, with the three major indices showing mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3,300 points. High-positioned stocks were favored by capital, with Guofang Group achieving 12 out of 13 daily limits, and Hongbaoli hitting 5 out of 6 daily limits. The total trading volume for the day in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 109 billion yuan, an increase of 48.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day. In terms of the futures market, market hot topics rapidly rotated, with the number of rising and falling stocks being roughly equal. From a sector perspective, logistics and unified large market concept stocks collectively strengthened, with multiple stocks including Huapengfei hitting the daily limit. Cross-border payment concept stocks rose, with Qingdao Jinwang and others hitting the daily limit. Pesticide and fertilizer concept stocks were active, with Zhongnong United hitting the daily limit. On the downside, computing power concept stocks adjusted, with Sinnet dropping over 5%. Sectors such as logistics, cross-border payments, pesticides, and agriculture led the gains, while sectors like robotics, computing power, liquid-cooled servers, and tourism lagged. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.82%. In terms of sectors Cross-border payment concept stocks led the gains, with Xincheng Technology, Lakala, Qingdao Jinwang, Ubox, Zhongyou Capital, Jida Zhengyuan, and other individual stocks hitting the daily limit. On the news front, four departments, including the central bank, jointly issued the "Action Plan to Further Enhance the Convenience of Cross-Border Financial Services in the Shanghai International Financial Center." It pointed out that the functionality and global network coverage of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) should be enhanced. The cross-border clearing company will strengthen collaboration with financial institutions to improve service levels for companies going abroad. According to Huaxi Securities, the US government's "reciprocal tariff" policy may drive the transformation of global cross-border payments from globalization to regionalization, promoting diversification of the payment system. This, to some extent, accelerates the development of the CIPS, and in the medium and long term, it will push the industry towards compliance, regionalization, and technology-driven transformation. Unified large market and logistics sectors strengthened again, with Huapengfei, Dongfang Chuangye, Shengyibao, Wanlin Logistics, Bonded Technology, and Bubugao among the individual stocks hitting the daily limit. With frequent adjustments in tariff policies in the global trade landscape, some companies will reassess their supply chain layouts, aiming to reduce costs and improve efficiency. Meanwhile, the adjustment of tariff policies has, to some extent, suppressed the competitiveness of some imported goods, creating a broader market space for domestic supply chain enterprises. Unified large market concept stocks may transition from thematic speculation to performance validation. From a market perspective, the strengthening of the unified large market concept can be seen as an extension of the cross-border payment concept. On the other hand, as the consumer sector once again experienced differentiation, funds chose to flow back into the previously consolidated large market (logistics) direction. It is expected to show a rotational upward trend with the consumer sector in future market conditions. Pharmaceutical stocks have also shown strong continuity recently. Zensun Pharmaceutical, Huasen Pharmaceutical, and Fuji Lai hit the daily limit, while Baili Tianheng, Nuocheng Jianhua, Xinuowe, and BeiGene reached new historical highs. Reagent Biology, Fudan Zhangjiang, and Microelectrophysiology also saw significant gains. On the news front, the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) annual meeting will be held in Chicago from April 25 to April 30. As one of the largest cancer research conferences globally, the AACR annual meeting is a key platform for showcasing the latest research results in the field of cancer. However, it is worth noting that there is still a noticeable divergence within the pharmaceutical sector, and subsequent attention should focus on the few core targets with higher activity at the forefront. In terms of individual stocks At the individual stock level, the recent "carousel" style rotation continued, with the sector effect of hot topics gradually decreasing. On the other hand, short-term active funds accelerated their concentration in high-profile stocks. For example, today, Guofang Group achieved 12 out of 13 daily limits, Hongbaoli hit 5 out of 6 daily limits, Anji Food hit 6 consecutive daily limits, Leshan Power, Youfood, Zhongqi New Materials, and Yalian Machinery also hit the daily limit. Although the sectors and reasons for the rise of these stocks vary, they all received capital favor, reflecting that in the context of poor overall market continuity, high-level clustering becomes the only choice for obtaining excess returns. However, such high-profile speculative sentiment is not stable, and once the loss effect begins to spread, it may trigger a collective capital exodus. Market outlook Today, the market continued to fluctuate and diverge, with the three major indices showing mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index was relatively strong, briefly surpassing 3,300 points, and maintained its upward momentum along the 5-day moving average. The downward gap left earlier is about to be filled. However, it is important to note that since the rebound on April 8, short-term profits have already been substantial. Additionally, the Shanghai Composite Index still faces the dual challenge of downward-moving averages and previous trapped positions. Without additional capital inflows, it will be difficult to break through upwards. From a market perspective, current market hot topics are rapidly and disorderly rotating, with poor continuity in various themes. In the absence of better options, funds showed signs of accelerating clustering in high-profile stocks in the afternoon. After the short-term climax, related stocks may face further differentiation tomorrow, and the risk of a downturn when high-level clustering disintegrates must be guarded against. Market highlights 1. The competition events for the first Embodied Intelligence Robot Sports Meet were announced, with representatives from Unitree, Xiaomi, and others participating in topic discussions. According to the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, the first Embodied Intelligence Robot Sports Meet will be held in Wuxi City's Huishan District from April 24 to 26. Today, it was learned that the event includes an opening ceremony, competitive and application matches, and thematic meetings. The competitive matches include speed running, cross-country running, football, basketball, and dance; the application matches include transportation, intelligent grasping, and indoor rescue. During the promotion of the Wuxi (Huishan) Humanoid Robot Industrial Park, representatives from Unitree, Xiaomi, and Leju Robotics will participate, discussing key technological bottlenecks and breakthrough paths for humanoid robots, as well as the in-depth exploration and implementation difficulties of humanoid robot application scenarios. 2. Shenzhen launched the first "Cross-Border E-Commerce Insurance," providing credit support for domestic purchase on credit in cross-border e-commerce. According to a report by Cailian Press on April 22, six institutions in the Shenzhen property insurance industry jointly issued the first "Cross-Border E-Commerce Insurance" guarantee insurance. The "Cross-Border E-Commerce Insurance" provides insurance coverage for accounts payable in domestic purchases by Shenzhen's compliant cross-border e-commerce companies, with a policy period of one year. Currently, six insurance institutions in Shenzhen, including PICC Property & Casualty, Ping An Property & Casualty, China Life Property & Casualty, CPIC Property & Casualty, Taiping Property & Casualty, and Dajia Property & Casualty, form the co-insurance body for this product.

Driven by the continuous rise in spot gold prices, Hong Kong-listed gold stocks maintained their strong performance. As of press time, Chifeng Gold (06693.HK), Tongguan Gold (00340.HK), Shandong Gold (01787.HK), and Zhaojin Gold (01818.HK) rose by 15.63%, 8.49%, 7.18%, and 6.95%, respectively. Note: The performance of gold stocks It is worth noting that gold stocks strengthened for the third consecutive trading day, with leading gains from Tongguan Gold and Chifeng Gold, which surged over 30% this week. On the news front, the US March unadjusted CPI annual rate fell to 2.4%, hitting a six-month low and below the market expectation of 2.6%. This data reinforced market expectations for the US Fed to initiate an interest rate cut in June, with the CME "Fed Watch" showing the market's pricing probability for a June rate cut rising to 98%. Meanwhile, the tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration have caused global supply chain disruptions, leading to a surge in investor demand for safe-haven assets, pushing COMEX gold futures prices above the $3,200/oz mark, with a cumulative increase of over 22% this year. Note: The trend of COMEX gold futures prices Institutions remain optimistic about the future performance of gold prices Deutsche Bank's latest report raised its gold price forecasts for this year and next to $3,139/oz and $3,700/oz, respectively, and expects prices to reach $3,350/oz in Q4. The bank emphasized that despite increased short-term market volatility, the bullish logic for gold remains solid, especially as central banks' gold purchasing demand surged from 10% in 2022 to 24%, far exceeding their demand for net bond issuance (7%-10%). BOC Securities analysis pointed out that the growth potential of global central bank gold reserves remains considerable, coupled with downward pressure on real interest rates, the value of gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to continue to rise. Carsten Menke, Head of Commodity Research at Julius Baer, noted that the "supply chain earthquake" triggered by tariff policies could severely impact US economic growth, and the value of gold as the ultimate safe-haven tool is being repriced.